Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 1, 2025

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ryan Cieslak, Director of Investor Relations and Treasury.

Operator

Ryan, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks, and good morning to everyone on the call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and supplemental investor deck detailing our third quarter results. Both of these documents are available in the Investor Relations section of Applied.com. Before we begin, just a reminder, we'll discuss our business outlook and make forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

All forward looking statements are based on current expectations, subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including those detailed in our SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward looking statement. In addition, the conference call will use non GAAP financial measures, which are subject to the qualifications referenced in those documents. Our speakers today include Neil Scrimcher, Applied's President and Chief Executive Officer and Dave Wells, our Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

With that, I'll turn it over to Neil.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. As usual, I'll begin with perspective and highlights on our third quarter results, including an update on industry conditions and expectations going forward. Dave will follow with more financial detail on the quarter's performance and provide additional color on our outlook and guidance. I'll then close with some final thoughts.

Speaker 2

Overall, our applied team performed well in the third quarter against an ongoing muted and evolving end market backdrop. We focused on our internal growth and gross margin initiatives as well as cost controls and working capital management. As a result, gross margins, EBITDA margins, EBITDA and EPS exceeded our expectations and prior year levels. In addition, while market demand remained soft, there were signs of firming sales trends as the quarter developed. Of note, the 3% organic sales decline in the quarter was stable with last quarter and in line with our guidance, while sales trends improved across our Service Center segment as the quarter progressed.

Speaker 2

Sales declines in our engineered solutions segment persisted reflecting softer OEM fluid power markets and more gradual backlog conversion. That said, this market appears to be bottoming and orders across the segment strengthened further during the quarter. As it relates to the quarter's margin performance, both gross margins and EBITDA margins exceeded our expectations, increasing 95 basis points and 59 basis points over the prior year respectively. Our performance continues to benefit from solid channel execution and ongoing margin initiatives across various areas of our business as well as variable expense adjustments and cost management. Gross margins also benefited from our initial positive mix contribution from our recent Hydrodyne acquisition.

Speaker 2

When looking at it over a longer period, gross margins have now expanded year over year in nine of the past eleven quarters, while EBITDA margins are up three twenty basis points over the past five years. This performance has helped drive 12% compounded annual growth for both EBITDA and free cash flow over the past five years. Overall, very compelling trends when considering various market headwinds over the past several years including higher inflation, supply chain disruptions and more recently softer demand trends. Overall, our margin expansion highlights the benefits of our strategy and strong market position. This includes structural mix tailwinds as we continue to expand our engineered solutions segment both organically and through M and A combined with focused initiatives tied to pricing analytics and processes, supplier relationships, local account growth, and supply chain optimization.

Speaker 2

In addition, we're on track to achieve another record year of cash generation with free cash flow up 50% year over year in the third quarter and 39% year to date. Our cash generation and strong balance sheet provide financial strength and flexibility in the current macro landscape, allowing us to proactively enhance our growth position and shareholder returns through greater capital allocation year to date. Of note, we've deployed over $440,000,000 in capital through the March. This partially reflects greater M and A activity, including our recent acquisition of Hydrodyne. We're extremely excited about the growth and operational momentum

Speaker 2

Initial integration is going well with strong collaboration and strategic positioning across operating teams. We expect financial contribution to increase into the fourth quarter and fiscal twenty twenty six as initial synergies are achieved and demand strengthens across core and emerging Fluid Power markets. In addition, our M and A pipeline remains active and provides ongoing momentum moving forward as reflected by today's announced definitive agreement to acquire Iris Factory Automation. Iris is a nice bolt on acquisition for our automation team that we believe will be incremental to our growth potential and value proposition long term given their focused capabilities. Of note, Iris provides proprietary turnkey productized solutions that can be easily deployed in a customer's facility to address common automation needs.

Speaker 2

Their solutions utilize advanced vision and robotics and support processes such as palletizing, case backing, and quality inspection. Expanding our portfolio of productized automation solutions is a a key focus area that should accelerate our cross selling potential and addressable market long term. Iris will add over 30 new associates and is expected to generate annual sales of around $10,000,000 in the first year of ownership. So we believe this acquisition can drive stronger growth synergy long term as we leverage our core suppliers' leading automation technologies and Applied's access to legacy manufacturing verticals. Overall, we look forward to welcoming Iris to Applied and leveraging their capabilities going forward.

Speaker 2

In addition to ongoing M and A activity, we remain proactive with share buybacks including repurchasing over 330,000 shares for approximately $80,000,000 year to date in fiscal twenty twenty five. Our approach to share buybacks remains consistent with our capital allocation strategy of returning excess cash through opportunistic share buybacks utilizing a disciplined valuation and returns focused framework. Long term, we see significant intrinsic value creation potential across Applied considering our strategic initiatives, industry position, exposure to secular growth tailwinds and margin expansion potential. When appropriate, we will continue to utilize share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns And as indicated in our press release today, I'm pleased to announce our Board has approved a new 1,500,000.0 share repurchase authorization. As it relates to the underlying demand environment, overall dynamics remain mixed during the third quarter as the evolving tariff and trade policy backdrop combined with higher interest rates continue to weigh on broader industrial activity.

Speaker 2

As expected similar to last quarter customers maintained a gradual approach to production and continue to conservatively manage MRO and capital spending including delaying new system installs and extending the phasing of capital projects. That said, we did see several encouraging trends in the quarter. First, demand across our Service Center segment gradually improved following a slow start in January with average daily sales increasing nearly 4% sequentially versus the second quarter, which was slightly ahead of normal seasonal patterns. Second, trends across our top 30 end markets improved from last quarter with 16 generating positive sales growth year over year compared to 11 last quarter. While sales declines continue across several top markets including machinery, metals and utilities, we saw a number of markets turn slightly positive in the quarter including rubber and plastics and oil and gas as well as several lower tier verticals.

Speaker 2

Growth was strongest in technology, food and beverage, pulp and paper, aggregates and transportation markets. Further, while mid single digit organic sales declines persisted across our Engineered Solutions segment, segment orders increased 3% year over year and 8% sequentially on an organic basis during the quarter. This drove the segment's book to bill above one for the first time in nearly three years. Stronger order trends were primarily driven in automation where orders grew by over 30% year over year and 20% sequentially in the third quarter. While some of these orders are longer cycle in nature and likely won't contribute to sales growth until fiscal twenty twenty six, it's a positive trend nonetheless that provides strong support to this scaling area of our business.

Speaker 2

We also saw orders across industrial and mobile OEM fluid power markets turn slightly positive year over year in the quarter. This is an encouraging sign following notable sales headwinds in this area of our business over the past year. During the third quarter, reduced sales from industrial and mobile OEM fluid power customers negatively impacted our consolidated organic year over year sales growth rate by approximately 100 basis points as well as the Engineered Solutions segment organic growth rate by over 300 basis points. Stabilizing orders combined with more normalized OEM inventory levels, emerging Hydrodyne synergies and much easier comparisons provide a solid path to see this area of our business potentially reemerge as a growth tailwind into fiscal twenty twenty six and beyond. So overall, a number of positive takeaways from our third quarter performance that highlight the strength of our industry position and operational caliber as well as underlying growth setup we have developing.

Speaker 2

That said, needless to say, we are now operating in an environment that is more volatile given the dynamic global trading and tariff backdrop. The related macro uncertainty that has ensued represents a distinct challenge for our customers, near term operational and capital management planning processes. Dave will provide more color and views on our outlook and guidance shortly, but we believe the current backdrop could continue to weigh on industrial production and capital spending into the spring and summer months. This was partially evident during April where we estimate average organic daily sales declined by an approximate 3% over the prior year period. That said, similar to the sequential improvement we saw during the third quarter, we expect break fix and maintenance activity to potentially pick up as the quarter progresses considering deferred technical MRO spending over the past year.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, over 70% of our total sales come from technical MRO and aftermarket support on direct production equipment and systems with roughly half our service centers sales from break fix applications. We also remain intensely focused on our internal and self help growth initiatives tied to expanding cross selling opportunities, sales force investments and product category penetration. In addition, our U. S.-centric customer base and manufacturing domain expertise combined with our scaling automation platform and diverse supplier base puts us in a strong and opportunistic position to play offense as trade policies and supply chains potentially structurally shift. This includes playing a critical role in providing technical maintenance, engineering and assembly, and process enhancements to U.

Speaker 2

S. Manufacturing systems and industrial equipment. In the near to mid term, this position could benefit if utilization of existing U. S. Production capacity structurally increases including potential demand shifts towards second and third tier domestic producing OEMs, which are key customers to many of our business units.

Speaker 2

In addition, our strategic relationships with a diverse U. S. Supplier base combined with our technical repair, rebuild and shop capabilities provide customers component optionality and alternatives as they manage through potential supply chain inflation and disruptions. And then on a longer term basis, the potential for greater reshoring activity and new manufacturing investments could represent a meaningful tailwind across many of our essential customer industries from legacy metals and machinery verticals to advanced technology and life sciences. I'd also like to take a moment to discuss potential tariffs and the impact can have on cost structure and operations.

Speaker 2

First, our U. S. Operations direct exposure to procuring products outside The U. S. Is very limited, representing less than 2% of total COGS including an immaterial amount directly from China.

Speaker 2

As a result, we do not have or expect to have any significant exposure to direct tariff cost. From an indirect standpoint, we're working closely with our suppliers as they continue to assess the impacts of tariffs and other inflationary pressures on their supply chains. We've received varying levels of price increase announcements from many suppliers over the past several months. Our teams are proactively and effectively managing through this evolving backdrop. And overall we believe we are comparatively well positioned.

Speaker 2

Our track record during the inflationary period of 2021 to 2023 provides strong evidence of our ability to manage and pass along inflation. We have a proven execution playbook that has been enhanced by system investments and analytical tools in recent years. We operate from an agile business model in well structured markets tied to critical and technical processes with strategic supplier relationships. Combined with structural mix tailwinds and various self help gross margin countermeasures inherent to our strategy, we are highly confident in our ability to adapt and execute as the tariff and broader inflationary backdrop continues to evolve. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Dave for additional detail on our financial results and outlook.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Neil. Just another reminder before I begin, as in prior quarters,

Speaker 3

we have posted a quarterly supplemental investor presentation to our investor site for additional reference as we recap our most recent quarter performance and updated guidance. Turning now to our financial performance in the quarter, consolidated sales increased 1.8% over the prior year quarter. Acquisitions contributed six sixty basis points of growth which includes the first quarter of contribution from our recent acquisition of Hydrodyne. This was partially offset by a negative 90 basis point impact from foreign currency translation and a negative 80 basis point impact from the difference in selling days year over year. Netting these factors, sales decreased 3.1% on an organic daily basis.

Speaker 3

As it relates to pricing, we estimate the contribution of product pricing on year over year sales growth was approximately 100 basis points in the quarter. Turning now to sales performance by segment. As highlighted on Slide seven and eight of the presentation, sales in our Service Center segment declined 1.6 year over year on an organic daily basis. This excludes 20 basis points of contribution from acquisitions, a negative 80 basis point impact from the difference in selling days and a negative 130 basis point impact from foreign currency translation. The organic sales decline was primarily driven by reduced MRO spending and lower capital maintenance projects compared to the prior year.

Speaker 3

On an encouraging note, the decline was a slight improvement from last quarter's organic decline of 1.9%. This is despite a more difficult comparison including seasonally strong break fix and capital maintenance activity we saw in March of last year. The segment's two year stack organic year over year sales trend improved sequentially every month in the quarter including posting positive four percent two year stack growth in the month of March. In addition, segment EBITDA increased 6.4% over the prior year despite a 3.5% decrease in total sales while segment EBITDA margin of 14.7% expanded 140 basis points. The year over year improvement was driven by strong cost management, gross margin initiatives, reduced LIFO expense, as well as favorable accounts receivable provisioning as a result of our internal working capital management initiatives.

Speaker 3

These results demonstrate solid performance and additional evidence of our ability to adjust and execute operationally in any demand environment. Within our Engineered Solutions segment, sales increased 13.5% over the prior year quarter with acquisitions contributing 20.8% growth including our recent acquisition of Hydrodyne. On an organic daily basis segment sales decreased 6.5% year over year which was relatively similar to last quarter. The segment's organic sales decline continues to primarily reflect ongoing demand weakness across Fluid Power OEM customers tied to reduced activity across the mobile Fluid Power market. In addition, backlog conversion on engineered systems and equipment remains slow as customers continue to take a measured approach to capital deployment and project phasing across our flow control and automation operations.

Speaker 3

This was partially balanced by growth across the technology vertical. Segment EBITDA increased 10.2% over the prior year reflecting contribution from Hydrodyne as well as gross margin initiatives, cost management and ongoing operational enhancements as we continue to execute our engineered solutions strategy. Segment EBITDA margin of 13.8% was below the prior year level of 14.3% and last quarter of 16.3%, so largely in line with our expectations considering the initial mix impact from Hydrodyne as well as more normalized organic gross margins trends following the last quarter. As a reminder, we see strong upside potential in Hydrodyne's EBITDA margins as we complete integration and execute our synergy plan particularly considering the businesses higher gross margin profile. Moving to consolidated gross margin performance, as highlighted on page nine of the deck, gross margin of 30.5% increased 95 basis points compared to the prior year level of 29.5%.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we recognized LIFO expense of $2,200,000 compared to $4,800,000 in the prior year quarter. This net LIFO tailwind had a favorable 22 basis point year over year impact on gross margins. Gross margins also benefited from initial positive mix contribution from our recent Hydrodyne acquisition. However, when excluding these positive impacts, we still generate solid gross margin expansion in the quarter reflecting strong channel execution and the benefits of ongoing gross margin initiatives. Price cost trends were relatively neutral in the quarter.

Speaker 3

In addition, while gross margin mix benefited from recent M and A, the business continues to face mixed headwinds from lower sales across local accounts and the Engineered Solutions segment. As it relates to our operating costs, selling, distribution and administrative expenses increased 4.1 compared to prior year levels. SG and A expense was 19.4% of sales during the quarter reflecting an increase of 43 basis points from the prior year quarter. Excluding depreciation and amortization expense, SD and A was 17.9% of sales during the quarter, an increase of only 10 basis points from the prior year. On an organic constant currency basis, SD and A expense was down 6.3% year over year.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we benefited from ongoing efficiency gains and reduced variable expense on lower sales as well as other cost measures as our team continues to effectively navigate through the subdued demand environment. We also experienced lower medical expense as well as favorable AR provisioning tied to our working capital initiatives with particularly strong collections performance. Overall, positive gross margin performance coupled with the benefit of spend initiatives and M and A contribution resulted in reported EBITDA increasing 6.8% year over year including an approximate 2% organic improvement while EBITDA margin of 12.4% expanded 59 basis points from the prior year level of 11.8%. In addition, reported earnings per share of $2.57 was up 3.7% from prior year EPS of $2.48 This includes an unfavorable impact year over year from interest and other income and a slightly higher tax rate partially offset by a lower share count. Moving to our cash flow performance, cash generated from operating activities during the third quarter was $122,500,000 while free cash flow totaled $114,900,000 representing conversion of 115% relative to net income and a 50% increase from the prior year level.

Speaker 3

Year to date, we have generated approximately $327,000,000 of free cash flow, which is up 39% year over year. Our cash flow growth so far this year primarily reflects more modest working capital investment compared to the prior year as well as ongoing progress with internal initiatives and our enhanced margin profile. From a balance sheet perspective, we ended March with approximately $353,000,000 of cash on hand and net leverage at 0.4 times EBITDA which is above the prior year level of 0.3 times but below last quarter's level of 0.5 times. Our balance sheet is in a solid position to support our capital deployment initiatives moving forward as well as enhance returns for all stakeholders. During the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 205,000 shares for $50,000,000 bringing the year to date total on share repurchases to 332,000 shares for $80,000,000 Turning now to our outlook.

Speaker 3

As indicated in today's press release and detailed on Page 12 of our presentation, we are adjusting full year fiscal twenty twenty five guidance to reflect our third quarter performance and updated fourth quarter expectations. Specifically, we now project EPS in the range of $9.85 to $10 based on sales growth of flat to up 1%, including a down 4% to down 3% organic growth assumption as well as EBITDA margins of 12.3% to 12.4%. Previously, our guidance assumed EPS of $9.65 to $10.05 sales growth of 1% to 3%, including organic sales of down 3% to 1% and EBITDA margins up 12.2% to 12.4%. Our updated guidance implies a fiscal fourth quarter EPS range of $2.52 to $2.67 on a total sales year over year range of down 1% to up 3% and EBITDA margins up 12.6% to 12.8%. Our fourth quarter sales guidance assumes average daily sales decline organically by a mid to low single digit percent over the prior year.

Speaker 3

The updated outlook considers average daily sales in April declining by an estimated 3% organically year over year as well as near term demand implications from greater economic uncertainty around recent tariff actions and an evolving global trade landscape. We believe this backdrop could weigh on seasonal industrial production trends into the summer as customers conservatively manage costs and capital spending, spending greater clarity on trade and tariff policies. From a margin perspective, we expect fourth quarter gross margins to be relatively stable sequentially. The outlook assumes limited impact from tariffs on pricing and cost inflation in the fourth quarter given the timing of announced supplier price increases, our product procurement exposure and an evolving tariff and trade policy backdrop. In addition, we expect LIFO expense to be relatively unchanged sequentially and slightly above $2,000,000 pending any significant changes in our inventory levels near term.

Speaker 3

However, this would represent a headwind year over year in the fourth quarter of about 20 basis points on margins reflecting LIFO favorability in the prior year fourth quarter which we previously highlighted partially benefited from a layer of liquidation benefit. Overall, we remain constructive on our setup moving forward considering our industry position, easing prior year comparisons, sustained benefits from our internal initiatives and Engineered Solutions segment order trends. Greater financial contribution from our recent Hydrodyne acquisition including initial synergy benefits provides additional support. That said, we believe it prudent and remains prudent to take a balanced approach to our near term outlook in the current uncertain operating environment pending more definitive and broader signs of a positive inflection in macro and industry conditions as trade and tariff policies are formalized. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Neil for some final comments.

Speaker 2

As we prepare to close out fiscal twenty twenty five, I'm proud of the ongoing progress we are making to strengthen our industry position, customer experience and growth potential. Near term, we remain focused on executing and managing through a muted end market backdrop. We expect customers will continue to conservatively manage operational and capital spending amid ongoing business and economic uncertainty that has been intensified by the evolving tariff and trade backdrop. That said, we remain focused on internal growth and margin initiatives and believe our U. S.-centric technical industry position provides near term resilience and strong growth catalyst long term.

Speaker 2

Order and backlog trends across our higher margin Engineered Solutions segment provide strong underlying growth momentum into fiscal twenty twenty six and we're favorably positioned to manage potential greater inflation given our technical industry position, minimal cross border sourcing, structural mix tailwinds and various self help countermeasures inherent to our strategy. Combined with our strong balance sheet, exposure to long term secular tailwinds including reshoring and easier comparisons moving forward, we remain constructive on our setup in the fiscal twenty twenty six and beyond. I want to recognize our entire Applied team to the foundation of our performance and evolution, their perseverance and operational focus provide a strong position to accelerate our potential moving forward. With that, we'll open up the lines for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer And your first question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

Speaker 4

So your analytics and everything, the insights into the margins and markets are really impressive as always. I got a question that might be a little tough though. As you look across your broad customer base, how are you thinking about the mix or proportion of them that might be particularly levered to some China sourcing and possible major production slowdowns?

Speaker 2

Know, Chris, I I don't know that I have, you know, all of that insight in, in going through. But I would say, I think that trends that we saw in the, in the quarter and the improvement in the top 30, were positive, the move from the 11 to 16. So if I think, across it, I think technology and the domestic work that'll continue to do there, announced investments, I think those likely continue. I think, obviously, food and beverage will should stay resilient. The amount of construction activity and that would be needed as industrial infrastructure builds out would be positive for the aggregates and others into that site.

Speaker 2

And I would expect, and we expect a pickup in machinery, utilities, and metals as potentially more domestic work comes in in that side. So that'd be some of my insight or indications that I have right now. Like we said Yeah.

Speaker 4

I appreciate it. I know It did play

Speaker 5

out for abstract topic.

Speaker 3

In terms of improved daily sales rate as we moved across the core in the service area segment and of course the positive impact and inflow flex we saw on new order intake in the engineered solutions segment. Those were all encouraging signs.

Speaker 4

Great. And then if we could look at some of the piece parts of Engineered Solutions relative or specific growth for Fluid Power, Flow Control and Automation. And do you think Fluid Power could pivot in the first half of fiscal twenty six, or is that, probably a little later?

Speaker 3

I think there could

Speaker 2

be some trends there. So if I so if I break it apart, right, automation on the order side was the, was the strongest in the quarter, know, the 30% up year over year and, you know, nice improvement sequentially. Fluid power on the technology side was double digit, you know, plus 10 in that side, which was positive as well. And then the mobile and industrial, you know, positive year over year sequentially, up 6% into that side. I think we've talked about previously.

Speaker 2

I think the nor, the inventory has normalized in with some of those OEMs as well. And so in some of those sectors, as we work through '26, we could start to see some of that pick up. It could develop to your point in the first half, but I think it continues to build throughout in fiscal twenty six.

Speaker 4

Okay. And I missed your comment on Fluid Power, David, prior to Neil there.

Speaker 3

I mean, prior to Neil, I referenced broader Engineered Solutions segment order trends. As Neil indicated, broke that out a little bit detail. We did see the tech up around 10% within Fluid Power, encouraging year over year growth on the mobile off highway piece industrial as well Fluid Power and up 6% sequentially in terms of order intake. So all encouraging in terms of ultimate recovery in that mobile off highway space within Fluid Power where we've seen some of that lower demand and did experience some of that hangover coming

Speaker 2

off the some of

Speaker 3

the supply chain disruption with some excess inventory in the channel. All encouraging trends there for sure.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Last one for me. Just want to check if that 30% automation orders growth is an organic number? That is.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Manthey with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. As it relates to the guidance, some companies are sort of assuming known and expected price increases and then layering that over their growth expectations. We just had a company that is not assuming price increases as kind of a hedge for demand destruction and others are in between that. Just wondering as you think of your approach to setting guidance, how would you characterize it relative to factoring in any tariff driven price increases and balancing that out with demand destruction?

Speaker 2

So I think David as we go forward, we will be factoring in what we believe the price inflationary to look like. I think to date and we talked about it in the remarks, we probably had 100 basis points of impact in the third quarter or contribution to price. In our fourth quarter, we would expect similar amount. We are seeing increases from suppliers. I think many that have an annual increase at the beginning of the year have implemented that.

Speaker 2

There would be some inflationary expectation or input into that, so perhaps a slightly larger increase. There's another group of suppliers that would be more mid year that has looked to accelerate those. But if I look forward at our fourth quarter, I think many of those increases will start to layer in somewhat the middle part of the fourth quarter, and that's why we think price contribution is placed still similar in that 100 basis points category in the fourth quarter. And then as we look forward, I think it's still to be determined. We're working with suppliers.

Speaker 2

Many are formulating strategies about what might be reciprocal tariffs and that impact. I think it has the potential to be several hundred basis points potentially in that, but there's still things to work through in that time period. So we're gonna work very hard to, have the understanding and execute on what material, what price inflation will be, and also what in market activities would be. And perhaps there will be some that get lessened through this area, but I also contend there are going to be some that are going to strengthen and go forward with investments and have more regionalized demand be it in The U. S.

Speaker 2

Or including in North America.

Speaker 6

Okay. So it sounds like you're just taking a logical approach to the tariff driven price increases you're seeing and layering that onto your demand forecast and that's what's guiding you. Okay, that's helpful.

Speaker 3

Given that we're guiding one quarter, David, it's a lot of the what we've seen in terms of price increases as Neil indicated is more general inflation related as everyone seems to be taking a wait and see attitude in terms of that ninety day, now sixty day window in terms of, you know, better clarity in terms of what tariffs do to us. So given that timing, very little impact for us in Q4, purely tariff driven.

Speaker 6

Yeah. Great idea to be on a June fiscal year, this year for sure. Yes. So then I guess there's kind of this thesis out there that there's a differential in demand destruction or growth rates across whether it's MRO related products, parts and components that are feeding production lines. And then third, sort of capital expenditure driven demand.

Speaker 6

It doesn't sound like you're seeing sort of an increasing level of demand destruction there given your automation organic growth you just talked about. So could you just talk about those three things MRO and then production sort of driven products versus capital expenditure driven sales. Is there a general trend in any of those or is kind of dependent on the end market more?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think for us David, overall, we think about our service centers and and given half their demand often will occur at a break fix time, you know, that's really resilient in that. We have seen in the broader MRO or some planned projects perhaps some deferrals or some kick out a little bit of that as customers work through or think through planning and look for a little bit more certainty in in the backdrop. But MRO, we feel, given that that's 70% of the overall company mix, stays pretty resilient throughout. And then where we are involved in projects and capital projects, they're really not extremely large capital intensive investments.

Speaker 2

They're enabling customers to be more productive, more efficient into the side. They have good paybacks and returns. And so, we have seen some deferral or some delays in that. Some of that's related to how they project our pro part of the project interacts with the total part of the investment or the project, but we take encouraging signs. The engineered solutions order rate that we would have had in the quarter, the building backlog that we're seeing including in flow control and automation in this side, And then the very early signs even in, off highway mobile, perhaps it is bottoming and firming into the side while the technology, that has been a headwind if we look back over perhaps eighteen to twenty four months back is starting to be a contributor again.

Speaker 6

That's great color, Neil. Thanks all.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Sabrina Abrams with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

Yeah. I just wanted to talk, I guess, a little bit about the what you're seeing in the macro. And I think, generally, your trends seem positive, like, sequentially. Clearly, there's a great extent of uncertainty, but the q four guide suggests decelerating trends from q three, and, you know, I guess, it assumes sort of May and June get worse. And I guess how much of that has to do with what you are currently seeing?

Speaker 7

Maybe if you could clarify whether April actually slowed from March, February or if there was something with Easter going on, but from a demand if April has slowed. And I guess how much of, things accelerating in the guide has to do with what you've already seen versus just assuming that things are going to get more negative from here? And then how do we sort of square the order trends in engineer solutions, which I think have been positive for two quarters now, with the implied deceleration, quarter over quarter?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Because so I'll perhaps work backwards. I'll start with the engineered solutions orders. And so depending on the amount of engineering and the work to go into those projects, which can vary, the conversion time can be a hundred and twenty days, maybe a hundred and eighty days on some of those. So encouraging on the build that I think many of those start to contribute into our fiscal twenty six on that on that side.

Speaker 2

And then if I think about the overall guide, as we said, we want to be prudent in this environment. And as we work through these ninety day periods and what some of the tariffs and potential reciprocal tariffs may turn out to be into that side. We're still very focused on how we are executing the business and helping the customers in. So I think that guide has, you know, appropriately prudent in that area. To your point, April did have an influence of a of a Good Friday Easter holiday timing into that.

Speaker 2

You know, perhaps that was a hundred basis points into that side, influence. And then as we think about, you know, March as it built up, probably on a on a two year stack basis would have been down 1%, March more, 4% into that period. So, you know, we think about April, given some of that order activity, we just wanna be conscious of some of that either cross current or uncertainties that could exist.

Speaker 3

I'd add, you know, as you move across the months, you know, June is a little bit tougher comp for us. You know, April, you know, did see that impact from what we call a half day, you know, in terms of Good Friday holiday. So you could factor accordingly for that. But I'd just add, really at the low end of the guidance that seems an average daily sales is roughly 500 basis points below the normal sequential trends in the quarter. At the high end though, where we say down low single digits, assumes average daily sales roughly 100 basis points below the normal step up we would see going into our Q4.

Speaker 3

So that compares that 100 basis points compares to a two thirty basis point kind of below normal seasonality level we've been running year to date. So just given all the uncertainty, I thought it prudent to position it accordingly.

Speaker 7

Got it. No. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just on the EBITDA margins, because you had a you you've had a good performance year to date.

Speaker 7

And I guess if you look at what's implied by the guide, you have maybe similar year over year sales growth in q maybe slightly worse in q four to q three, on a total basis. And then you have a much larger step up in SG and A, year over year. So the implication is something like, I don't know, like, 7% year over year increase in SG and A on, 1% of sales growth. And just wanna under at at the this sort of what it's implied by the midpoint of your guide. I just sort of wanna understand what would be driving so much, deleveraging, quarter over quarter.

Speaker 7

Does it have something to do with the acquisitions? Is there something to do with inflation? So any color there would be helpful.

Speaker 3

Hey, Beth. Yeah. Very proud of the, the businesses, you know, cost controls and productivity in terms of SD and A spend in our most recent quarter. Hydrodyne, you know, comes in at a favorable gross margin mix up benefit, but still, higher SG and A rates. You're seeing that read through.

Speaker 3

We're starting to get great traction on some of the synergy initiatives, but not a great deal of that reading through yet even in the fourth quarter. So that is an influence. And I'd say, thinking back to the gross margin performance, we said LIFO would be at a similar level sequentially to what we saw in Q3. But just a reminder that in Q4 of last year as we comp this quarter, we did have a layer liquidation benefit in the prior year. So that alone drives about a 20 basis point adverse impact on both gross and EBITDA margins.

Speaker 3

So you're seeing all those combinations read through to initial some deleveraging as a result of just looking absolute numbers year over year.

Speaker 7

I'll follow-up offline. Thank you.

Speaker 3

You bet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Newman with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 5

You know, for the first question, I think, longer term, I know you're not ready to talk about fiscal twenty five yet. But, you know, I think you typically think about incremental margin through the cycle of kind of being in that mid to high teen range. If demand does start to normalize next year, whether it's in ES or in service center, do you think that that's the type of incremental that you could drive? Or does that become a little bit tougher depending maybe some higher LIFO expense for potential price increases? Just how do you think about, just maybe the moving pieces in operating leverage?

Speaker 2

Yeah, Ken. I would think, end of the year and longer term, we still believe in our ability to have incrementals in that mid to high teens range into the side, as we think about it. You know, to your point, a little early on fiscal twenty six and a lot of moving, perhaps a lot of moving parts. But, and we'll be working through our planning. We're going through our long range strategy sessions in game theory, had the service centers in game theory with the board this past time, engineered solutions in in coming up, and we're working, the planning cycles right now.

Speaker 2

But, you know, perhaps as a starter, you know, as we think about or look at '26, perhaps it has the fourth quarter guidance that would end. And if you apply normal seasonality looking ahead, that results in something that's, flat. Then if you think about there would be will be price contribution in that. Perhaps that's several hundred basis points into it. Perhaps with some of the uncertainty and environment that degrades that, that volume a little sigh a little bit.

Speaker 2

But we also contend we can have, engineered solutions with backlog conversion into that side, which could potentially contribute. So perhaps '26 looks like a low single digit environment overall. You know, perhaps it could be better as we work through. And then just as a reminder on LIFO, if if there is more expense, I mean, obviously, I'd start with it does provide or LIFO overall is a significant cash benefit to us in inflationary times. And then if I look back at 'seventeen through 'nineteen with LIFO, we did a very nice job managing through that and we grew gross margins into that period, 60 basis points or so.

Speaker 2

So team has a good playbook. We have that muscle memory. We will be focused on, really any operating environment that's ahead of how we execute and perform.

Speaker 3

I'd just add, you know, Ken, coming out of the inflationary kind of the COVID and some of that demand rebound, the business did very nicely in terms of levering. When you think about at times incrementals in excess of 20% despite some of those contained LIFO headwinds, etcetera, that Neil indicated. So structure, I just think the business is even better positioned now when you think about the mix up benefit that comes with higher engineered solutions contribution. And once again, just thinking about the way the business levers on some of that SD and A base that, you know, once you get past that first one percent to 2% of growth, would expect, you know, like I said, those mid to high teens incrementals for sure.

Speaker 5

Yep. That's that's really helpful. Maybe for the second question here, just talk a little bit about capital deployment. Obviously, you you've got the, the new bolt on deal for Iris, you know, this morning. You also, I think, announced a new, share repurchase program as well.

Speaker 5

How do you think about prior the priority priorities between the two? You know, is this a good level or a good share price level as you think about enacting on that that share repurchase program? And, you know, what's the capacity to act on M and A even here in the fourth quarter and into '26?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So, I can start. So, you know, Ken, our overall, our our capital allocation, our priority is gonna remain growth. We know that, organic investments we make have high returns and while we're not so capital intensive, we will be going through that that planning and executing on those. We know also m and a, can be a strong contributor to that.

Speaker 2

That will remain a priority. The pipeline's active. We're busy into that front, so that will contribute into the side. And then from a share repurchase standpoint, I'm pleased that the authorization was renewed in coming out. We will maintain a disciplined approach, a returns driven approach at that, but I would expect that we will be active in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

And to say it, yes, so coming off of Hydrodyne and the incremental share repurchase activity in the most recent quarter still at 0.4 times leverage, plenty of dry powder to handle all those capital deployment opportunities.

Speaker 3

Very helpful. Thanks.

Operator

And your last question comes from the line of Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning, guys. This is Peter Costa on for Brett. Could you just add some color on what you're seeing from reshoring investments specifically? What's the pulse out there just as we wait out this policy uncertainty? Anything you're hearing around customer tone would be helpful.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 2

So I think overall the activity, or discussions around, reshoring, continue. If I think about the investments in facilities and we're seeing that from kind of the manufacturing non resi construction rates being up, I know there's been a positive impact for a number of years in manufacturing employment, whether that's you know, you know, 1.4, one point five percent in into the side, that continues. Many discussions with customers as they think about upcoming environments, what are they moving inside of their facilities, or how they're looking to qualify other suppliers. And so many of those next tier, second, third tier OEMs are customers of ours today, and so there will be capital and then operating investments that could be continuing on that. And then we all see and read about large companies making extended investments in.

Speaker 2

And so as those projects start, we've got great indirect participation with our service centers as we think about, metals, mining, aggregate, as things get built and formed. And then as the facilities run and operate, they give us a a strong aftermarket MRO. And then for some of these, including in in fluid power and technology products depending on the industry, we're on that equipment going in, which can create some pull for us as well. So I think reshoring continues to be an input and perhaps can be even a greater input as we look out at fiscal twenty six and beyond.

Speaker 8

Thank you. And and and then maybe how do you think about the willingness of the channel to take on more price? Just any early pushback there as you kinda start to have the conversations with your suppliers and then with your channel? And then is there kind of just a willingness for the suppliers to to work through on any contract timing mismatches? Anything there?

Speaker 2

So sorry. What was the last part of that, question about suppliers?

Speaker 8

Just any willingness on the supplier side to work through contract timing mismatches maybe with with larger national accounts, anything like that?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So, I would say, overall. Right? I mean, there there's clear awareness of, tariffs, inflationary impacts, and inputs, throughout, any environment. And, you know, we're firm believers that we as consumers, will pay more for items going forward, and that's going to be the same in the industrial environment.

Speaker 2

And so many of our customers are looking at, right, how they have clarity of what those inputs are gonna be and how they form those pricing inputs and policies as they take them forward in in going in going out. As it relates to suppliers, they will be coming, well, with the phases. They'll provide the documentation that that it will go through. And, you know, we work closely with them to have the right implementation schedule, across the producing or customer landscape in that. And so if I look back, it's been productive in, in our operating history and and cadence, and I expect the same as we go forward.

Operator

At this time, I'm showing we have no further question. I will now turn the call over to mister Screamser for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

I just want to thank everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to talking with many of you throughout the quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Applied Industrial Technologies Q3 2025
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