Cameco Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 1, 2025
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Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Cameco Corporation First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. Following the introductory remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Operator

Webcast participants are asked to wait until the Q and A session before submitting their questions as the information they are looking for may be provided during the presentation. The Q and A session will conclude at 9AM Eastern Time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Cory Koss, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Cory Kos
Cory Kos
Vice-President of Investor Relations at Cameco

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Cameco's first quarter conference call. I would like to acknowledge that we are speaking from our corporate office, is on Treaty 6 territory, the traditional territory of the Cree people and the homeland of the Metis. With us today are Tim Gitzel, President and CEO Grant Isaac, Executive VP and CFO Heidi Schachke, Senior VP and Deputy CFO and Rochelle Girard, Senior VP and Chief Corporate Officer. I will hand it over to Tim momentarily to briefly discuss the continued positive momentum across the nuclear energy market and our strong Q1 performance alongside a solid financial position.

Cory Kos
Cory Kos
Vice-President of Investor Relations at Cameco

After, we will open it up to your questions. Today's call will be approximately one hour concluding at 9AM Eastern Time. As always, our goal is to be open and transparent with our communication. However, we do want to respect everyone's time and conclude the call on time. Therefore, should we not get to your questions during this call, or if you would like to get into detailed financial modeling questions about our quarterly results, we would be happy to respond to any follow-up inquiries.

Cory Kos
Cory Kos
Vice-President of Investor Relations at Cameco

There are a few ways to contact us with additional questions. You can reach out to the contacts provided in our news release. You can submit a question through the send us a message link in the invest section of our website, or you can use the ask a question form at the bottom of the webcast screen and we'll be happy to follow-up after this call. If you join the conference call through our website event page, there are slides available, which will be displayed during the call. In addition, for your reference, our quarterly investor handout is available for download in a PDF on our website at cameco.com.

Cory Kos
Cory Kos
Vice-President of Investor Relations at Cameco

Today's conference call is open to all members of the investment community, including the media. During the Q and A session, please limit yourself to two questions and then return to the queue. Note that this conference call will include forward looking information, which is based on a number of assumptions and actual results could differ materially. You should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward looking statements and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements we make today except as required by law.

Cory Kos
Cory Kos
Vice-President of Investor Relations at Cameco

As required by securities laws, we also have to make you aware that during today's discussion, the company will make a number of references to non IFRS and other financial measures. Cameco believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and a full reconciliation of non IFRS financial measures is available at cameco.com/invest. Please refer to our most recent annual information form and MD and A for more information about the factors that could cause different results and the assumptions we have made. I will now turn it over to our President and CEO, Tim Gitzel. Tim?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Well, thank you, Corey, and hello everyone. We appreciate you joining us on our call today. I hope everyone is doing well and enjoying spring or autumn depending on where you're listening from. Here in Canada, the snow is gone, it's spring and we just wrapped up a federal election earlier this week. I'd like to personally congratulate Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

We're excited to begin working with the newly elected Canadian government and look forward to Prime Minister Carney's strong leadership in navigating the current uncertain environment of global tariffs, evolving fiscal policy and complex geopolitics. Our hope is that we can work together to advance the development of the nuclear fuel cycle and expand the use of nuclear energy in Canada and abroad. As a country, Canada is blessed with a rich uranium resource base that makes this country a key player in the global nuclear fuel supply chain. But like Cameco, when it comes to nuclear energy, Canada is much more than just mining. Beyond our resources, we have a long deep history in the nuclear sector.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

So when combined with our advanced technology and generational nuclear expertise, a supportive and collaborative government will be key in helping put Canada on the map as a nuclear industry leader in support of global energy, national and climate security objectives. As we get started, I first want to encourage stakeholders to focus on our long term want strategy and the long term industry outlook discussions in our disclosure beyond the near term geopolitical and trade policy distractions. That said, there is no doubt that those distractions have created new and unexpected risks that must be carefully monitored and diligently managed. It is extremely difficult to operate the world's nuclear fleet if the movement of uranium fuel is restricted because those who need it most tend to have the least. At the outset of the quarter in January, the U.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

S. Threatened to impose a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products. But amid the flurry of tariff changes, retaliatory tariffs and ongoing negotiations, energy products that are compliant with the Canada, United States, Mexico free trade agreement are currently exempt. That means for the time being there are no tariffs on our natural uranium, UF6 and enriched uranium products preserving the flow of nuclear fuel imports into The U. S.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Market. But regardless of the current exemption, we know that a lot can change overnight. For example, in April, the U. S. Launched a new Section two thirty two investigation to address the risks of reliance on foreign sources of processed critical minerals.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Notably, the executive order outlined uranium in the definition of critical minerals, directing agencies to assess the national security risks stemming from U. S. Dependence on foreign imports. We went through a similar Section two thirty two investigation covering steel, aluminum and uranium under the previous Trump administration and at that time uranium was spared. However, we take nothing for granted that was a different time in a different trade environment.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Following that first investigation in 2019, we proactively took steps to minimize potential future impacts such as adjusting and clarifying our contract terms and positioning material well ahead of expected deliveries. Those preemptive actions helped us prepare for the more recent threat of tariffs on Canadian nuclear fuel products and we will continue to adapt accordingly and mitigate such risks in the future. I'm sure there will be more to come this year as negotiations continue and policy evolve, but two things are certain. There's no substitute for uranium in a nuclear fuel bundle and there's no elasticity to the demand for nuclear fuel. You need it to run your reactors and power your economy regardless of tariffs or higher costs.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Looking at the future picture for nuclear beyond the near term noise, it continues to be more positive than we've ever seen. You've heard us consistently express a positive long term demand outlook quarter after quarter for a few years now. So I won't spend much time reiterating the strong industry tailwinds. I would say it's now a regular occurrence to see news and announcements of significant positive industry developments with nations reaffirming commitments to nuclear, extending reactor lives and saving those that were to be shuttered and planning new reactors. We've recently seen the World Bank announced plans to lift its decades old ban on funding nuclear projects.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

And we've had more announcements of reactor operating licenses being extended in The U. S. Pushing some reactor lives to eighty years. This week, 10 new builds were approved in China, marking the fourth consecutive year that China has approved at least 10 new reactors. Just yesterday, Poland signed an agreement with Westinghouse, Bechtel and Polish utility PJ launching the next phase of preparatory and engineering work for its three unit AP1000 project, the first commercial nuclear plant in the country.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Those are just a few of the headlines that support our unwavering view that full cycle demand is durable and stronger than ever. The world remains focused on energy security, national security, climate security and sustainability all in the context of growing clean energy demand. But as we keep emphasizing the risk to supply are far greater than the risks to demand. Despite the long term uranium price remaining near its highest level in over a decade, the industry is still not seeing the level of long term utility contracting necessary to support both brownfield expansion plans and the significant investment in new projects that will be required to meet growing future demand. And to meet the total fuel requirements of the world reactors between now and 02/1945, the world's utilities still have a lot of uranium to buy.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

In fact, percent of their needs through 02/1945 remain uncovered. That's about GBP three point two billion that remains to be contracted and for roughly one third or about GBP 1,300,000,000.0, the source of annual primary production is not yet known. With each passing quarter that long term contracting remains below replacement rate, the uncovered requirements line continues to steepen. Long term contracts must be in place to support mining economics and underpin ongoing investments in supply. But with the continued uncertainty driven by global trade policies and unclear market access, fuel buyers have remained focused on adapting procurement plans under the threat of tariffs and securing downstream conversion and enrichment services before buying the natural uranium.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Looking ahead, we believe a move upstream to focus on security of uranium supply is inevitable and unavoidable. Shifting to briefly highlight Cameco's first quarter. As always, normal quarterly variability in customer deliveries impacted our results. However, under our strategy, which remains consistent and centered on operational, marketing and financial discipline, we delivered strong results. We saw notable improvements across all key financial metrics with revenue up 24%, gross profit up 44%, adjusted net earnings up 52% and adjusted EBITDA up 5%.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

And with our first quarter average realized price increasing year over year at a time when the average uranium spot price fell 30%, it remains clear that value creation in our industry requires a long term contracting strategy and we are clearly well positioned. As expected, our Westinghouse segment reported a net loss in the first quarter of twenty twenty five due to the normal quarterly variations in customer requirements and the ongoing amortization of the intangible assets related to the acquisition. We continue to expect an annual net loss of US20 million dollars to US70 million dollars for Westinghouse in 2025. We focus on adjusted EBITDA as a key performance measure for Westinghouse as it adjusts for non operational or non cash items like amortization costs. In the first quarter of this year, we saw a 19% improvement in Westinghouse's adjusted EBITDA compared to the first quarter of last year.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Beyond Q1, Westinghouse's first half results are expected to be weaker with stronger performance and higher cash flows expected in the fourth quarter. For the year, our share of adjusted EBITDA is still expected to be between $355,000,000 and $4.00 $5,000,000 And needless to say, with all of the growth opportunities that have materialized post acquisition, we continue to be pleased with the performance and excited about the potential of our investment. Our operational performance across all segments continues to improve and our outlook for the year remains strong and consistent with our expectations. In our uranium segment, our share of production from our two Northern Saskatchewan operations was 6,000,000 pounds in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, slightly higher than the 5,800,000 pounds in Q1 last year. We continue to expect 18,000,000 pounds of production on a 100% basis at each of our McArthur River Key Lake and our Cigar Lake operations.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

We also continue to evaluate the optimal mix of production, inventory and purchases to retain the flexibility to deliver long term value. The first source of supply is our Tier one primary production, which always has a home under a long term contract before it is pulled out of the ground. Next source is our purchase material and our inventory, including our share of production purchased from JV Inkai. Following the unexpected suspension of production for most of January, JV Inkai updated its plans to adjust for the suspension and is targeting 8,300,000 pounds of uranium for 2025, of which our purchase allocation is 3,700,000 pounds The team is still working on a delivery schedule based on the new production plan, but we do not expect to receive any deliveries from JV Inkay until at least the second half of twenty twenty five. And with ongoing acid and other supply chain challenges, the updated 2025 production target is certainly not without risk.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

In the fuel services segment, production also started the year strong, up 5% over the first quarter of last year. Our annual production expectation for fuel services remains between 27,000,000 kgu of combined products for the year. In the uranium market, long term contracting activity is expected to continue to gain momentum. The long term price increased from US68 dollars per pound in January 2024, holding now around US80 dollars per pound for several quarters. Our marketing team continues to be very busy with a large and growing pipeline of business under discussion that is expected to further grow our long term portfolio.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

As contracting picks up, we continue to be selective in committing our uranium inventory and UF6 conversion capacity in order to maintain a contract book that preserves exposure to the rising prices while maintaining downside protection. Maintaining financial balance and balanced liquidity to execute on our strategy remains a priority. Our balance sheet is strong and we continue to expect strong cash flow generation in 2025. Thanks to our risk managed financial discipline and strong cash position in January 2025, we made the final repayment of US200 million dollars to fully repay the US600 million dollars term loan we used to finance the acquisition of Westinghouse. As previously disclosed, we received our first cash distribution from Westinghouse, our share being US49 million dollars of the US100 million dollars distribution paid in February.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

And in April, following the end of the first quarter, we received a cash dividend of US87 million dollars net of withholdings from JV Inkai based on its 2024 financial performance. So from a financial perspective, we continue to be in excellent shape. We've remained diligent in managing the capital resources and tools required to deliver on our strategy, maintaining a strong balance sheet guided by our investment grade rating. Amid the intensifying geopolitical challenges and complex international trade relationships, it's more important than ever to procure nuclear fuel from responsible, reliable, experienced and sustainable suppliers like Cameco, fuel that supports a future energy supply that is secure, reliable and carbon free. We believe Cameco's premier Tier one fuel cycle assets complemented by our investments across the reactor life cycle puts us in a unique position to power a secure energy future.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

So I thank everyone on the line and on the webcast for your interest today and we will now take your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit your questions to Webcast participants are welcome to submit questions through the box at the bottom of the webcast frame. The Cameco Investor Relations team will follow-up with you by email after the call. The first question today comes from Orest Wowkodaw with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Metals and Mining at Scotiobank

Hi, good morning. Obviously, the balance sheet is in great shape here with paying down the remaining term loan debt on the Westinghouse acquisition. I'm just wondering, given the forecast or the outlook moving forward in terms of solid free cash flow and no real material uses of cash that we're aware of, can you really talk about what the priorities are for capital allocation moving forward here? And I'm wondering whether increasing capital returns returns to shareholders either be dividends or could we see a buyback coming from Chemical? It really seems like you're in a strong financial position moving forward.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Orest, thanks for the question. We've got the CFO and Deputy CFO here. So Grant, why don't you start?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Yes, happy to do that and maybe a bit of a tag team if necessary. Orest, thanks, and thanks to everybody for joining. We're always excited to talk about Cameco and its really critical role in this nuclear fuel cycle and reactor cycle. There is no doubt that our strategy is playing out. We've simply delivered on what we said we would deliver on.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

And you're seeing that in the financial results and you're seeing that in the outlook. But I would remind folks that we remain in supply discipline as Cameco for a very specific reason and that is we have yet to see the uranium segment hit replacement rate or above replacement rate contracting. So while in supply discipline, that always reminds us that we must remain financially conservative because you have to design a strategy that's got the right mining plan, the right milling plan, the right marketing plan and it has to be backed up by a balance sheet that allows you the patience. The patience that utilities can show has to be matched on the supply side. So with that backdrop, we remain very conservative in our focus.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

We are seeing strong cash flow, strong earnings build. But while we're in supply discipline, we always want to make sure we can self manage the risk of, say, a prolonged delay in the contracting cycle so that there are no awkward lurches to the capital markets because we mistimed it, for example. That would be an inappropriate thing for us to do. As we look ahead, what are the things that we might spend capital on? Well, no doubt that our position in a recovering nuclear fuel cycle is an important one.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

We have opportunities through our Cameco asset base on the uranium side. We have opportunities on the conversion side, obviously opportunities in enrichment. And then, of course, through Westinghouse, we have opportunities for further investments. But we have to be very careful with making those decisions because there is some uncertainty that we're trying to navigate. I would just point to, for example, making sure we have clarity and certainty over the role of Russia forward in the nuclear fuel cycle because we've all seen what's happened in the past.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

So we have not abandoned our conservative financial discipline yet. As we go forward, we will look for appropriate risk adjusted growth opportunities. After that, we would then be looking at maybe it's appropriate to return capital to our owners, maybe that's appropriate through enhancing our dividend growth strategy, which we have out there right now. Maybe it's appropriate through shrinking the outstanding denominator of our shares through a share buyback. But I would just say that the strategy is paying off, but it's paying off in a market that hasn't yet fully come with its demand.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

We remain in supply discipline and that's what's driving our conservatism. We will obviously keep this group up to date on any plans on capital allocation, but I just wanted to provide that strategic backdrop.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

And Orest, it's certainly something our board has at the top of their agenda every meeting as well. So we're looking at it closely.

Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Metals and Mining at Scotiobank

Thank you. And as a follow-up,

Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Metals and Mining at Scotiobank

if I could, can you

Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Metals and Mining at Scotiobank

speak to what the implications are for Westinghouse with respect to the recent IP legal settlement with Korea? And what could that mean to that five year outlook for Westinghouse if there are material builds outside of Korea that is done by that organization?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Yes. Thank you, Orest. At the time of acquiring Westinghouse, there was an outstanding intellectual property dispute between the Koreans and between Westinghouse over the use of what is essentially Westinghouse technology in the Korean reactors. There was a very important government to government agreement that was signed between The U. S.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

And the Korean government. And following that was a commercial agreement between Westinghouse and the Koreans. There's a confidentiality agreement wrapped around that for the moment, but let me just step back and say what it effectively means. It means that Westinghouse and the Koreans have gone from potentially being competitors in markets for gigawatt scale new build to be important collaborators, reflecting in fact what is the shared contribution each makes to a new build program. And so as markets where Westinghouse may not have been competitive, for example, where utilities or states were looking for a fixed price turnkey solution, which of course everybody knows, you've heard us say Westinghouse is not in the market offering fixed price on a turnkey reactor, those were markets that the Koreans were very competitive in.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

But now instead of being excluded from those markets, Westinghouse has an opportunity to participate in the scope of those new builds. And so if you want to think about it from an energy systems point of view, remember that's a segment that we valued at zero at the time of acquisition. For Westinghouse and AP1000s, we've since seen positive announcements in Poland, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Ukraine. And now there are markets where Westinghouse was not successful like the Czech Republic, Czechia, where Westinghouse will now participate. So it actually just grows the scope of the energy systems business.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

It's very exciting, but ultimately there are some steps that we have to still go through with the agreement before we can say more. But when we can, we're going to be very excited. It's an agreement definitely to the mutual benefit of Westinghouse and the Koreans.

Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Metals and Mining at Scotiobank

And just finally, how quickly could it impact Westinghouse performance?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

The trigger, if you will, for impacting Westinghouse performance is when the announcement of a new build or a vendor selection in the new build gets to the point where a final investment decision is made by the country that's considering it. And as we've been talking about from the Poland example, once a reactor is chosen, you still go through a series of front end engineering and design work, to design the reactor, but to engineer the reactor in a novel location, that's all part of leading towards that final investment decision, which is usually which usually coincides with an EPC contract. So if you look at the markets where the Koreans have been successful in bidding their reactor offering, Czechia is a market that is well ahead, with respect to going down that process. It is a nuclear market. They're very familiar with operating, building nuclear reactors.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

So really, the trigger becomes when a final investment decision is made and an EPC contract is signed. Now those are incredibly hard to predict and I'm not going to try to predict them, but that process let me just say is well underway in The Czech Republic.

Orest Wowkodaw
Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Metals and Mining at Scotiobank

Thank you. Thanks Grant. Thanks Tim.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Thanks Orest.

Operator

The next question comes from Ralph Profiti with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Ralph Profiti
Ralph Profiti
Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp

Thanks operator and good morning everyone. Tim, I wanted to come back to your comments about fuel buyer procurement emphasis upstream versus downstream. And from your comments, it doesn't seem like we are in a phase of normal buying prioritization. Just wondering what the industry markers you're looking for that will mark more of a transition. How far are we away from that type of market?

Ralph Profiti
Ralph Profiti
Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp

And what are the indications that we can look to see that changing?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Ralph, thanks for the question. I think you also heard me say that between now and 02/1945, I think there's over GBP 3,000,000,000 un procured, GBP 3,200,000,000.0 and over 1,000,000,000 of those, not sure where they're coming from yet, what source is going to provide those. So we're not seeing the panic yet. You've heard Grant probably many, many times say fuel buyers start at the back end and they worry about their fuel bundles and then work backwards from there. Where's your enrichment coming from?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

You've seen enormous pressure on the enrichment space in the last couple of years, especially since the Russian move into Ukraine conversion, same thing, enormous pressure. There is no reason why that's not going to come to the uranium space. It just hasn't got there yet. And so we're being patient. We were saying, I think to our Board yesterday that you can run, but you can't hide.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

I mean, people need uranium to make this whole thing work. And so you can defer and wait and hope for better times, but they have to come to the market. We have not yet seen replacement rate contracting really in the last ten years. And so there's a deficit out there that's going to have to be filled. As Grant said in his comments, we're patient.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

We make sure our production is patient, our marketing is patient. We have a very strong financial position that we're ready and we can wait it out, but it's coming, we're sure of that.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Tim, if I could, I'll jump in and Ralph, there's always a risk trying to call a turning point, but let me go ahead and try to do it anyway. At the recent WNFC Conference in Montreal, our Vice President of Global Marketing, Lisa Aiken was on a panel and she made a couple of observations that I think are really important. And if I can point you to a slide and point everybody to a slide, it's Slide six in Tim's comments or Slide 16 in the investor handout for Q1 of twenty twenty five. And what I what it feels like is starting to happen in the long term contracting market for uranium is the challenge that's depicted in that slide is really starting to impress upon fuel buyers. So if you look at the left hand panel, the shaded area is good.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Just think of that as if you see a shaded area, that's good. That's the wedge of uncovered requirements. That's the wedge of demand that Tim was referring to. It now goes out to 2,045 and it now equals 3,200,000,000 pounds of uranium that needs to be procured over the next twenty years. That's 70% of the requirements over the next twenty years that have not yet been bought.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

And you look to the panel on the right hand side and you say, well, how worried should we be? You see after a decade of underinvestment due to low prices and a decade of harvesting inventories and secondary supplies, you see a primary supply stack that's falling over the same period. You see a secondary supply stack that's falling. You layer in some known proposed production, the kind of stuff that's been hyped for many, many years, well, let's assume it's going to come into the market, and even under the base case demand, you see that red wedge there of 1,300,000,000 pounds of uranium, we're not sure where it's coming from. And I would just echo the comments that Lisa made on the panel, until we see stronger demand in the market, until we see utilities calling for that, the investment simply won't be made to fill that red wedge.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

That feels really good to an incumbent uranium producer who has yet to run at full capacity, who hasn't even got its Tier one assets at full capacity, let alone contemplating restarting our Tier 2s. This is why we're patient. This is why we're still in supply discipline because this is an incredibly strong setup.

Ralph Profiti
Ralph Profiti
Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp

Understood. Well said. Thanks very much. And if I could just ask a follow-up on your recent meetings in with the Kazakhs. And we've got some production visibility now for 2025 at Inkay.

Ralph Profiti
Ralph Profiti
Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp

Just wondering what your meetings over the last several weeks and months since the production shutdown have yielded in terms of commitment going forward, your feeling on being able to meet those long term production targets, your comfort around the long term viability of chemicals, Kazakhstan business?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes, Ralph, it's Tim. We have met with them several times here in Canada, PDAC and in other places, we've had teams go over, I'll be heading over there in a couple of weeks for the foreign investors council meeting with the President. I'd say things are back on track thereafter those twenty three days in January that we weren't sure what exactly was happening. They got the licensing back in place, restarted operations. We're targeting £8,300,000 now production for the year, 3.7 our share.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

I think we've got just under a million pounds sitting there that will be coming over sometime this year as well. And so I'd say our relations are back on track. We obviously have a great respect for the Kazatomprom team, Mr. Yusupov who runs the places is a good leader and a good friend of ours. And so I'd say, mean, there's always the risk.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

The acid risk hasn't gone away, supply chain risk hasn't gone away, but our relations with them have stabilized and we're on a good track.

Ralph Profiti
Ralph Profiti
Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp

And from a sulfuric acid availability and procurement, what does that outlook look like?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

I'm going to ask Corey Koss, who's our Kazakh expert, the latest on sulfuric acid.

Cory Kos
Cory Kos
Vice-President of Investor Relations at Cameco

Hey, Ralph. Yes, we haven't seen any indication that an agreement has been signed to actually go ahead and build a plant, but they've remained on that line that I think 2027 is when they expect to have the plant in place. But again, haven't seen construction start and haven't seen agreements signed. So no solution is in place yet.

Ralph Profiti
Ralph Profiti
Managing Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp

Okay. Thanks. Important answers.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Thank you, Ralph.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Thanks, Ralph.

Operator

The next question comes from Alexander Pierce with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Alexander Pierce
Alexander Pierce
Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Good morning all. I have a follow-up question on Inkai. So Tim, you mentioned that you weren't expecting to get deliveries until I think you said at least H2 this year. Is it fair to say that you think the deliveries are more likely to be weighted in the back end of the year, I. E.

Alexander Pierce
Alexander Pierce
Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Kind of Q4? And could you see a situation where actually there's any more delay to those deliveries?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes, I don't have any specific information. We know it's probably second half of the year is what we said. And so Alex, I really don't have any more specific timing on that yet. And as soon as we do, we'll let everybody know, but we're confident it will come in the second part of the year.

Alexander Pierce
Alexander Pierce
Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks, Tim. And then maybe I can ask just a question on McArthur River. So can I just ask where you stand with some of the studies you're doing there for potential production upside? I know there's no mention of it in the MD and A this time.

Alexander Pierce
Alexander Pierce
Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Are you still looking at the potential upside with up towards the license capacity levels? Thanks.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes. Thanks, Alex. No decision to expand there. We're in supply discipline as Grant has said many, many times. We've said we're not moving until our contract book calls for it.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

And so no decision to produce anything more than 18,000,000 pounds at the McArthur River Key Lake. I think Key Lake is down at the moment, we're on the shutdown, stood the mine down to the mill down to do our annual maintenance on it this month. So you'll see a little bit less production there, but no change, 18,000,000 at MacArthur. We continue to evaluate how to reduce risk and debottleneck the site. In the event that at some point we want to increase our production, we could go to 25,000,000 pounds, I think everyone knows that.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Those are the best 7,000,000 pounds extra pounds probably on the planet, but today no decision to make any moves on that.

Alexander Pierce
Alexander Pierce
Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks, Tim.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Lawson Winder
Lawson Winder
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you very much operator and good morning Tim and Grant. Thank you very much for the update today. There was an interesting comment in your MD and A, just noting that prices from fixed price contracts had increased. Could you provide any color in terms of the direction of travel relative to the current $80 per pound long term price indicator? And would you describe the situation as one where the balance sheet shifting more towards fixed price contracting?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Grant?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Yes. There's a lot to unpack in that question, Lawson. Let me just step back and talk about it from a market point of view. When you look at the interest in long term contracting, there would be some utilities that do have a preference for market related. There would be some utilities that have a strong preference for fixed.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

And then that preference tends to shift with where you are in the cycle. For those utilities that are looking at our Slide six that shows there's GBP 1,300,000,000.0 of uranium, we don't know where it's coming from against the GBP 3,200,000,000.0 that needs to be bought. That's a pretty shocking, risk that's been transferred to fuel buyers. We will see an interest in trying to fix the price because that would be driven by a fuel buyer who understands prices probably have to go up and have to go up significantly in order to incent supply to come to the market. So market related because suppose we're in a market where they've agreed to fix the price but the price happens to be below, they just don't want to take that kind of risk.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

You don't want to be taken out behind the woodshed for trying to call a price around volatility. So really it is specific to where you are in the cycle and then specific to the value at risk metrics of the utilities themselves. For Cameco, we said in Q4 and we'll continue to say today, we just remain disciplined in this kind of market. We want market related exposure that is a requirement for us if we're going to commit long term pounds. And we want market related exposure at floors and ceilings that reflect the structural gap ahead, not the softening of the spot market that we saw over the first quarter of this year.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

We don't believe that that has anything to do with what the appropriate price is under a long term contract that starts delivery a couple of years out and then delivers into this window of the structural deficit. So we continue to be very disciplined and we want market related and we want market related at escalated floors and ceilings that work for us. And for those utilities that are aligned with the need to secure those pounds, we're still able to have productive conversations. For those utilities that want to drag those floors and ceilings down because of the current because of the spot softness that they saw in the first quarter, I would note we've seen some recent strengthening, the bid and ask is just too big for us to have a fruitful conversation. So we are again, I'm going to use the term turning point.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

It feels like there is a growing awareness that it is time to start contracting. We're starting to see some momentum around some RFPs and momentum around on market RFPs is always joined with increased momentum off market directly on a bilateral basis.

Lawson Winder
Lawson Winder
Analyst at Bank of America

All right. That's very helpful commentary. I think as a follow-up, would kind of like to get your sense of the transportation and logistics challenges that the industry might be facing today. And it was actually something that came up at WNFC quite a bit, and it hasn't been a focus at other more recent conferences. So things that were coming up were impact from leftover impacts from the pandemic and Panama Canal constraints, reshuffling of ocean alliances.

Lawson Winder
Lawson Winder
Analyst at Bank of America

I mean, there was a lot and then there's the USTR Section three zero one. What are your concerns about potential transportation bottlenecks? Are you seeing any in your supply chains?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Lawson, yourself and others who have been dialing in and listening to us for a long time know that we had been warning about falling asleep on uranium for years. And we've been warning about it because we said, look, building new uranium supply is hard. It's not as easy as some will tell you in a feasibility study. Restarting assets that are already licensed and already permitted is hard, as you see from the efforts from some of the smaller producers to come back to the market. And we've always said this is a highly trade dependent commodity.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

It is one where the vast majority of production occurs in nations the supplier greater than the risks to demand. So in our industry, we tend to have long lead times on the transportation requirements. So for example, when somebody wants delivery, there's a nonbinding notice that's sent over a year in advance of delivery beginning to signal that it's time to start putting in place the liquid and actual transportation commitments can be made. So unlike other commodities, we are not just in time for you stumbling around and looking for transport options. Having said that, it is still challenging, the tariff overhang, the uncertainty around who owns the Panama Canal, the transportation logistics of establishing new channels like we saw in Central Asia, these are all challenges for the industry that are now adding to that getting rather full bucket of risks to supply.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

So I would watch the transportation piece. I wouldn't fall asleep on it. Cameco has never missed a delivery. We never will miss a delivery, but that doesn't mean others aren't going to struggle with the transportation challenges.

Lawson Winder
Lawson Winder
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.

Bob Brackett
Head - Research Division at Sanford C Bernstein & Co LLC

Good morning. I'm struck by last week's announcement of 10 new reactors from China, the $27,000,000,000 number that you alluded to. And in that context, how do you think of Westinghouse's relationship with China amidst the tariff and trade disputes we're having?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Well, Bob, thanks for the question. Obviously, we watch with great interest as well China, whether you deal with them or you don't, they are a mighty force in the nuclear space and 10 reactors a year been announced over the last four years in a row. You do the math on that, they'll be at 100 by 02/1930 and probably 200 by 02/1940. And then we start thinking about where the fuel on the Cameco side, where the fuel is going to come from to service those and all of the rest of the reactors around the world. So that's I mean, when we talk optimism and durable demand and a great future, China is a big part of it.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Westinghouse has a relationship with China. Obviously, the CAP1000s that they're building there now are of Westinghouse origin. And I know there's some enduring agreements between Westinghouse and China on each of those units to perform work on those. So I think the relationship is very strong and Cameco as well has a good relationship with China.

Bob Brackett
Head - Research Division at Sanford C Bernstein & Co LLC

And is there an opportunity there where China doing more business with Westinghouse helps balance out some of the trade balance and what would the timing of that look like? If the announcement of the reactors hits April 27, when do those turn into feed or when do those turn out into sort of capital commitments?

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes, that's a good question. Your first question is the interesting one. It's really a geopolitical question is with really what we've been dealing with over the last number of months, the relations between China and Canada, China and The U. S, China and the rest of the world, Canada, U. S, we have a new Prime Minister and government as you know in Canada as of this week.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

And so we'll see how that goes with at the political level between Canada and China. On a B2B business to business level, the relationship has been strong and enduring, and I'll just talk to Grant if he has anything to add. Yes,

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

One of the common threads to all of the tariff discussion and trade disruption is we want a better deal. And what we've discovered after spending a lot of time in Washington, a deal on energy is a really compelling story. So anytime you have an opportunity for a U. S. Business to expand and project, U.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

S. Energy strategy, it tends to be favorably well received. So we're delighted to see the CAP1000 become a really important part of China's new build. Westinghouse enjoys what Dan Littman and team call, Phase II of their relationship with the Chinese. There are instrumentation and control contracts.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

There are fabrication contracts, which benefit The United States to be participant in that. And also, let's just remind ourselves that for everybody out there who says we don't know how to build gigawatt scale reactors, the Chinese are building essentially the AP1000 in sixty months at a cost of about $2,500,000,000 a reactor. So the world knows how to do this, and it's done by starting and not stopping, continuing that momentum, getting to the nth unit. So I think there's two really important messages. One, an energy deal is always well received, and number two, we see the benefits of a nation that starts to build and continues to build, and every country, the Western countries included, can certainly follow in those footsteps.

Bob Brackett
Head - Research Division at Sanford C Bernstein & Co LLC

Very clear. Thank you.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Thanks, Bob.

Operator

The next question comes from Gordon Johnson with GLJ Research. Please go ahead.

Gordon Johnson
Founder & CEO at GLJ Research

Hey, gentlemen. Thanks for taking the I have a, I guess, a more general question. I have a lot of clients asking this. Can you guys talk about the extent to which your projected demand on your output is affecting your current investment in new exploration? And I ask because given the global slowdown in exploration we've seen over the past two years after Fukushima, You guys laid off a bunch of people, a number of people laid off.

Gordon Johnson
Founder & CEO at GLJ Research

It seems like there's a big gap in the cycle. I'm just trying to figure out how you guys are planning for that.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes. Thanks, Gordon. So obviously exploration very important to our strategy. We just put a new Vice President in place, Alexander Oban is our new VP of Exploration. We continue our efforts.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

We've as we've said many times in the past, we've held on to through those lean years, all of the we think are the best properties in the Athabasca Basin. We continue to work them. We've been growing our exploration budget over the last few years. So yes, absolutely exploration continues to be a very, very important part of our business. We don't stand up and brag too much about it.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

It's just something that we do. We try not to blow too hard on it. It's but we do have some very good projects. So if you look at our Operator test, it's Tim Gitzel. Can you hear us?

Gordon Johnson
Founder & CEO at GLJ Research

I can hear you guys now. You guys cut out a bit.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Okay. Sorry about that. Hopefully, you got the answer. Bottom line exploration remain.

Operator

It seems we've lost connection with our One moment while we reconnect.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes, it's Tim Gitzel. I'll just keep speaking to see if people can can hear me. It's Tim Gitzel. Grant, do you want to try your mic?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Yes. Operator, can you hear us?

Operator

Yes, you are coming in loud and clear now.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Okay. Thank you. I'm not sure what happened. Thank you. Maybe we can

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

move on to the next question.

Operator

The next question comes from Craig Hutchinson with T. B. Cowen. Please go ahead.

Craig Hutchison
Analyst at TD Cowen

Hi, good morning guys.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Good morning.

Craig Hutchison
Analyst at TD Cowen

Good good morning, Tim. I wanted to ask a question on the fuel services business. You realized very strong pricing in the quarter, up year over year, quarter over quarter.

Craig Hutchison
Analyst at TD Cowen

And as I mentioned about mainly results of contracts were entered into an improved pricing environment. Could you just provide some context? Was that a function of the mix of the products you were selling? And is there potential upside here to your guidance just given the strong environment for some of those services? Thanks.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

I'm going to ask Heidi Schocke to provide some comments.

Heidi Shockey
Heidi Shockey
Senior VP & Deputy CFO at Cameco

Yes. Hi, there. It was a bit a couple of things going on really. You're seeing the rolling on of new contracts. So just as you know, we layer in contracts over time, so slowly you see older contracts rolling off and improvement in our prices and just in this quarter in particular, we had just the timing of one particular contract that had a higher price, less so on the mix of products, but just really the mix of contracts in this particular quarter.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

As we look ahead, Craig, it's always important to remember that our strategy is about contracting forward. Again, if I refer to that Slide six that was in Tim's comments or 16 in the handout, you remember that that spot sliver is no different for conversion than it is for uranium, and that is there is no utility on the planet that's loading a fuel bundle in 2025 that needs to buy the uranium in conversion in 2025. So we're always selling forward. And why do I say that? Well, to your question about what to expect, the historic pricing that's come through the conversion business it is not yet being realized by us.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

So all of that is in front of us from a pricing point of view. So you're beginning to see the early days of strong performance as a result of that much stronger pricing and conversion, but certainly more to come. That's how we build our strategy, and you're seeing it being executed, it just yet is another reason we're delighted with our position in the nuclear fuel cycle.

Craig Hutchison
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thanks. And maybe just a quick follow-up question for me. In the past, you guys have given great color on floors and ceilings. Can you just kind of give some color on where those sit right now in terms of your discussions?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Yes. Happy to do that. We continue to be very stubborn, Craig. You heard me say in Q4 that there is a bit of connective tissue between the spot market and the long term market with respect to market related contracts. Remember, those are the contracts for which we're not trying to price them today.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

We're pricing them at time of delivery out into the future, but many are We tend to orient that conversation around operator, do we still have you?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Are you still there?

Gordon Johnson
Founder & CEO at GLJ Research

Yes, I'm

Gordon Johnson
Founder & CEO at GLJ Research

still there. You're kind of

Gordon Johnson
Founder & CEO at GLJ Research

coming in and out on my line.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

I'm not sure what's going on. The floors and ceilings, we orient around where the structural demand and supply is in the market on a forward basis. But no doubt when you have primary producers bringing small volumes of production to spot market and putting downward pressure on it or when you have a fund like a fund out of Central Asia that was being dissolved rather clumsily, it puts down to where we should be with respect to floors and ceilings in contracts out into the future. So we're still holding out for floors that are in the $70 escalated.

Operator

It appears we've lost connection with our speakers. Please wait while we reconnect.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Ceilings tend to come rather than try to chase it, and we're liking the setup.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Hey, good morning.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

So aside from China, India is the other country with pretty ambitious nuclear energy plans. And obviously, it's taking a little bit of time to get it going, but it seems like they've taken some actions to speed that up recently. Can you just talk about that nuclear growth opportunity in India and the potential there for Cameco Westinghouse specifically? I recall a few years ago, there was a potential AP1000 project that was shelved because of liability issues, but it seems like those issues might be getting addressed. So maybe just talk about that.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thanks.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. You're cutting a note on us. I think the question was on India and some of the recent announcements. It is a big stretch, very ambitious.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

We have good relations with India. We've been supplying them since 2015 on the Cameco side. And so we continue to talk to them and hopefully the Canada India relationship will at the political level will improve going forward. But then again, that's not stopped us at the business to business level. So from the Cameco point of view, we have a great relationship with India and we'll be a big player in supplying their fuel needs going forward.

Tim Gitzel
Tim Gitzel
President and Chief Executive Officer at Cameco

Westinghouse, same, I know they have teams over there working with the Indians talking about future growth there. And so I don't have any specifics yet. There was a site put aside for Westinghouse units. I think it still exists. So nothing really to report Andrew on that at this point, but yes, we're still working and India is going to play a big role in the future in the world and in the nuclear market.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Maybe just another question. In your conversations with utility customers, you have a lot of those. How much does the inventory that's held by the physical funds come up in the conversation? And just curious from your perspective, is there still do you among the utilities that those pounds may be available in the future at some point?

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Or is there a better understanding that those pounds mostly aren't going to be available?

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

Brent? Hi, Andrew. It's a bit mixed. You would have picked up some of that messaging in Montreal while you were there as well. I think we're in one of those markets where folks are looking at that structural deficit and then they're clinging to hope of something.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

And one of that areas of hope is, well, maybe if you can get your hands on uranium that's already in a can and already in North America, that's my hope that's going to bail me out from the fact that I haven't been contracting. So we've seen a lot of what I might call noise around the spot vehicle, for example, or we've seen a lot of noise around the yellow cake vehicle. And I would just say that it seems like it's noise. Haven't heard anything from either of those two that suggests they're not in it for the long run. But more importantly, those are almost irrelevant volumes now in the face of the structural deficit.

Grant Isaac
Grant Isaac
Executive VP & CFO at Cameco

I mean, couldn't even begin to plug a one year gap just a few years out. So yes, there are some who point to it and say, well, this material must come to the market at some point. I'll tell you, we worry about it less and less and less every day.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, we'd like to apologize for the clarity of the audio. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tim Gitzel for any closing remarks. I'd like to hand the call back over to Tim Gitzel for any closing remarks. This brings to an end today's conference call.

Operator

You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

Executives
    • Cory Kos
      Cory Kos
      Vice-President of Investor Relations
    • Tim Gitzel
      Tim Gitzel
      President and Chief Executive Officer
    • Grant Isaac
      Grant Isaac
      Executive VP & CFO
    • Heidi Shockey
      Heidi Shockey
      Senior VP & Deputy CFO
Analysts
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Key Takeaways

  • Despite geopolitical trade distractions, long-term nuclear demand outlook remains exceptionally strong, supported by reactor life extensions in the US, World Bank funding reversals, China’s 10 new reactor approvals, and Poland’s AP1000 project.
  • Cameco reported a 24% revenue increase, 44% gross profit gain, 52% rise in adjusted net earnings, and a 5% boost in adjusted EBITDA in Q1, with average realized uranium prices up year-over-year even as spot prices fell.
  • The Westinghouse segment saw a Q1 net loss from amortization but delivered a 19% improvement in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, and its full-year adjusted EBITDA contribution is forecast at US$355 M–US$405 M.
  • Operationally, Cameco produced 6 M lbs of uranium in Q1, maintains its 18 M lb guidance at McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake, saw fuel services output rise 5% with a 27 M kgu guidance, and JV Inkai targets 8.3 M lbs in 2025 with deliveries in H2.
  • With the final US$200 M payment on the Westinghouse term loan completed and a strong liquidity position, Cameco maintains strict supply discipline and is evaluating risk-managed growth and potential future shareholder returns.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Cameco Q1 2025
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