Natural Resource Partners Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 6, 2025

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners LP First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to hand the call over to Tiffany Samis, Investor Relations. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners first quarter twenty twenty five conference call. Today's call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website. Joining me today are Craig Nunez, President and Chief Operating Officer Chris Zolas, Chief Financial Officer and Kevin Craig, Executive Vice President. Some of our comments today may include forward looking statements reflecting NRP's views about future events.

Speaker 1

These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to materially differ from our forward looking statements. These risks are discussed in NRP's Form 10 ks and other Securities and Exchange Commission filings. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward looking statements for any reason. Our comments today also include non GAAP financial measures. Additional details and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our first quarter press release, which can be found on our website.

Speaker 1

I would like to remind everyone that we do not intend to discuss the operations or outlook for any particular coal lessee or detailed market fundamentals. Now I would like to turn the call over to Craig Nunez, our president and chief operating officer.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Tiffany, and good morning, everyone. NRP generated $35,000,000 of free cash flow in the first quarter of twenty twenty five and $214,000,000 of free cash flow over the last twelve months. Prices for metallurgical coal, thermal coal, and soda ash declined precipitously over the last year and negatively impacted our results. As you've heard us say for over a year now, we expect weak prices for all three of our key commodities to persist for the foreseeable future and provide a drag on our performance. Despite this, we expect to continue generating robust free cash flow, which we will use to pay off remaining debt, which stands at $118,000,000 today.

Speaker 2

We are now reaping the rewards of the capital allocation decisions made over the last decade. Our capital structure is solid, and our financial outlook is bright. We look forward to the prospect of significant increases in unitholder distributions as debt is paid off next year. Our mineral rights business generated $44,000,000 of free cash flow in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. Sluggish demand for steel, relatively high inventories at power plants, and an uncertain geopolitical environment have pressured metallurgical and thermal coal prices to levels that we believe are at or near the cost of production for many producers, and there are no clear catalysts in sight to push prices materially higher in the near term.

Speaker 2

With that being said, operator cost inflation has increased the breakeven coal sales prices for our lessees. As a royalty owner, we benefit from higher sales prices without having to bear the burden of our operators' higher cost of production. As a result, we believe the royalty revenue we receive at our operators' breakeven levels is higher today than in the past. Turning to soda ash, we received $3,000,000 in cash distributions from Shisha Jam Wyoming in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, an 80% drop from the previous quarter year quarter. Soda ash prices remain at the lowest levels in decades with sales prices trading below the cost of production for many producers.

Speaker 2

We believe we are in the early innings of this soda ash bear market given the current supply demand imbalance and that it will take multiple years for global markets to fully absorb excess supply and stabilize at materially higher price levels. While we have seen some high cost production shut down globally, most notably in The United Kingdom, Poland, and Argentina, the scale has been too small to materially benefit the market so far. We take comfort that Shishi Jam Wyoming is one of the world's lowest cost producers. While distributions will likely remain at these lower levels in the near term, our positive long term view of our soda ash investment has not changed. Regarding carbon neutral initiatives or C and I, the slowdown that we expected for the general market for most C and I activities has materialized.

Speaker 2

Leasing interest for underground carbon sequestration remains lackluster as political, regulatory, and market uncertainties pose significant hurdles for developers contemplating large capital investments for these types of projects. We are, however, continuing to see activity in the geothermal, solar, and lithium space and are making small scale progress on several initiatives. While the timing and likelihood of future free cash flow from C and I activities is uncertain, we still believe our vast ownership footprint provides opportunities for carbon neutral cash flow while requiring minimal capital investment by us. And with that, I will turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you, Craig. In the February, NRP generated 40,000,000 of net income, dollars 34,000,000 of operating cash flow, and $35,000,000 of free cash flow. Our mineral rights segment in q one twenty twenty five generated $45,000,000 of net income, 43,000,000 of operating cash flow, and $44,000,000 of free cash flow. When compared to the prior year's first quarter, our Mineralized segment net income decreased $15,000,000 and operating and free cash flow decreased $27,000,000 and $26,000,000 respectively.

Speaker 3

These decreases were primarily due to weaker steel demand that resulted in lower metallurgical coal sales prices and volumes. Met coal made up approximately 55% of our coal royalty revenues and 40% of our coal royalty sales volumes in q one two thousand twenty five compared to 75% of our coal royalty revenues and 50% of our coal sales volumes in the prior year first quarter. Shifting to our soda ash business segment, net income in the first quarter of twenty twenty five decreased $1,000,000 and both operating and free cash flow decreased $11,000,000 as compared to the prior year period. These decreases were primarily due to a lower weighted average net sales price resulting from an increased percentage of sales into a lower priced international market in 2025. International soda ash pricing has declined significantly from the record highs seen in 2023, primarily due to weakened demand for flat glass from the construction and automobile markets and additional soda ash supply from China.

Speaker 3

We expect prices in our distributions received from Sicerjam to remain muted until demand rebounds and the soda ash market is able to absorb this additional supply. In wrapping up with our Corporate and Financing segment, q one twenty twenty five segment performance was relatively flat as compared to the prior year period. Q one operating cash flow and free cash flow each improved $1,000,000 as compared to the prior year period due to lower interest payments from less debt outstanding. Regarding our quarterly distributions, in February of twenty twenty five, we paid a fourth quarter twenty twenty four distribution of $0.75 per common unit. And in March of twenty twenty five, we paid a special distribution of $1.21 per common unit to help cover the tax liability associated with owning NRP common units in 2024.

Speaker 3

Today, we announced the first quarter twenty twenty five distribution of $0.75 per common unit to be paid later this month. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Mark, our operator, for questions.

Operator

And our first question comes from the line of Philip Pramer with PLC Marketing. Philip, please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Yes. Is it do you have any anticipation of what the dividend may be one year from this quarter? Good morning. No. We don't, at this point, have an anticipation of that one year from now.

Speaker 2

I will say that, we do anticipate that distributions will be, high on our list of of cash flow priorities. And, to the extent that, we don't need cash, internally to bolster the balance sheet, to do anything else that, you're gonna see distributions going back to to unitholders. Okay. Well, congratulations on your strategy of debt reduction and the execution of it. I was just curious whether you were going to prioritize share buybacks or dividends.

Speaker 2

I I would suggest that in order prioritization, I think of it this way, for our uses of cash. Number one is liquidity, balance sheet strength. We have to make sure that we, don't find ourselves in a position that we've found ourselves in the past, because of poor capital structure. And then to the extent we've satisfied that, next on the list of priorities would be the distribution, then unit repurchases, if it was possible to repurchase units at, what we would think would be material discounts to intrinsic value. And then last would be opportunistic type acquisitions that, if we're able to purchase things at prices that provided a margin of safety.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

You bet. And

Operator

your next question comes from the line of David Spear with Nathor Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, how are you guys?

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 4

Just as a way, as a possibility of speeding up the capital returns process, is there any opportunities to either sell assets or monetize assets, take advantage of the disconnect maybe between the market value of the company and potentially the private asset value of some of your assets? As just way then using those proceeds to pay down the debt to then speed up capital returns?

Speaker 2

Just candidly, we do not have plans to sell any of our assets. We tend to to be a, as a royalty owner and mineral owner, we tend to be an acquirer and a long term holder of those assets. We find that over time, that tends to be the best way to maximize value. I will say, however, that if we felt an opportunity existed to, monetize an asset at some value that was, in excess of what we believed the the asset was inherently worth, its intrinsic value to us, we would we certainly consider that. But I I think those will be, not frequent opportunities.

Speaker 4

Got it. And then in longer term, I mean, are there any other, you know, mineral right packages, let's say, even on coal where given the sentiment towards, the coal industry overall where there would be opportunities to pick up, you know, other packages over time and you can really scale your existing corporate infrastructure, where you get some benefits, some accretive benefits and acquisitions?

Speaker 2

Well, we really don't want to talk much from a competitive perspective about, our our desires for, growth and and investing and that type of thing. I would say though that we're still at a point where we're executing to finish the strategy we put in place to to delever the business. And, and as you could tell from the prioritization I gave you a few moments ago on our cash uses. Acquisitions is is the the bottom of that list of four different uses of of cash. So I don't wanna get too far ahead of ourselves on that right now.

Speaker 4

Yeah. Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Yes. Sure thing.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of John Mason with Aegis Companies. John, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Sure. Just looking at your volumes across for for this quarter, I noticed that you're getting you you guys saw a real uptick in in the Illinois Basin. And so I guess just a couple of questions.

Speaker 5

One, do you do you expect that uptick in volume to persist? And then two, you know, I think at at these met, index prices, you know, it's it's pretty uneconomical for, I think, a lot of producers on the cost curve. Do you anticipate any of your lessees on the met side to, reduce production at these levels, over time, or do you think that will persist? So I guess the question on sort of Illinois Basin specifically and then the impact of the met index pricing on, the volumes for for your, met producers.

Speaker 2

Right. So first of all, let me say that as as Tiffany mentioned at the outset, we remember, we do not comment on specific operators. And so Illinois Basin is in fact one operator for us. But I think generally, could answer your question this way that the the volumes you've seen for Illinois Basin for us in the quarter, are within the range of what we would expect to see going forward. So, it's not it's nothing unusual.

Speaker 2

And and, you know, so hopefully, that help helps your question, there with that. And what was your second question again?

Speaker 5

So, you know, I I think Illinois is, you know, primarily thermal. But on the met side, you know, the index pricing, obviously, in the q one so q one sort of the first quarter that you're seeing is fully reflected. Do you expect any of your, met coal produced, like, met coal producers to reduce production given that, you know, the I think this pricing is pretty uneconomic for a lot of producers across the cost curve. So

Speaker 2

We think you're right. We do believe that, you're correct in that prices today are, you know, at or below marginal cost of production for many, operators. And we do have operators, we believe, although we're not necessarily privy to their their cost structure. We don't have the right to see that, so to speak. But we do believe that we do have operators that are right there at that breakeven, maybe right before.

Speaker 2

It would not surprise us if if there were, you know, idlings of production, but we, you know, we have nothing we can point to right now that says we're going to have a material change in our our volumes as a result of that. But it's as you could tell from our prepared remarks, that's what we wanna make sure everybody, all of you are aware of is that we're sensitive to the price levels that exist, in the space right now.

Speaker 5

Yep. Sounds good. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

You bet. I I will just say this. One of the things that we spend a lot of time doing around here and have for a number of years is trying to think of bad things that can happen to our business. And, you've identified one of them that we, we regularly, consider, and we run stress tests on. And, it's it's a wise question that you asked.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Uman Kamaria. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So basically, my question was a bit similar to what the previous one asked, but just a couple of things. So the first thing is that previously, M and A has been pretty strong for NRP, but I just wanted to get a sense of whether or not this is gonna be a pain. And also with regards to the new administration, there seems to be more support for METCO going forward.

Speaker 6

And I was just wondering that have you heard of any talk with regards to that with the other partners, whether they're actually looking for more medical sourcing with regards to up further up the supply chain? Yes. Pretty much those two things.

Speaker 2

Could you repeat your first question again, please?

Speaker 6

You can disregard the first question. It was about M and A, but I think you covered it alright. So could you just answer the second question, please?

Speaker 2

I I would say that we do monitor legislative and executive orders, legislative developments and executive orders, fairly closely, to the extent they expect impact our space. And we have not identified anything that we think will materially, impact our our business per se. We don't we can't make forecast as far as what's gonna happen on the regulatory front. But, you know, we've we've seen various administrations come and go over the life of NRP, and we've we frankly haven't seen a a a dramatic impact, just for example, over the last decade through two two plus administrations that we've we've weathered. We we don't know exactly what impact that's gonna have on us, and I we're not changing our business plans because of it.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

Yeah. You bet.

Operator

There are no further question at this time. That concludes our question and answer session. I will now hand it back over to Craig Nunes for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator. And and thank you everyone for joining us today and for your support of of us. We're nearing the end of a very long journey to conclude the strategy that we put in place back in 2015, And, we couldn't have done what we've done so far without your support. The the headwinds of the market, are certainly headwinds at the moment, but, I can honestly say that, despite the outlook for our three key commodities being probably the worst it's been in in my tenure at NRP, the outlook from the perspective of an equity holder is certainly brighter than it's been, over the last decade. So with that, thank you again, and I look forward to speaking to you soon.

Speaker 2

Good day.

Operator

That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Natural Resource Partners Q1 2025
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