CF Industries Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Operator

Martin Jurassic, Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Martin Jarosick
Martin Jarosick
VP - IR & Treasury at CF Industries

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Tony Will, President and CEO Chris Bohn, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Bert Frost, Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain and Greg Cameron, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. CF Industries reported its results for the first quarter of twenty twenty five yesterday afternoon. On this call, we will review the results, discuss our outlook, and then host a question and answer session. Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward looking statements.

Martin Jarosick
Martin Jarosick
VP - IR & Treasury at CF Industries

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website. Now let me introduce Tony Well.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the first quarter of twenty twenty five in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $644,000,000 These results reflect outstanding performance by the CF Industries team against the backdrop of very constructive global nitrogen industry conditions. We are operating safely and at a high level across all aspects of our business. Over the longer term, we have positioned the company for attractive growth through our Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui. This industry defining project will not only supply ammonia that the world desperately will need, but it will also add develop it will also develop additional demand for low carbon ammonia into brand new applications.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

We also remain committed to returning capital to long term shareholders. Since the beginning of 2022, we have returned $5,000,000,000 to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Given the confidence we have in our free cash generation going forward and the disciplined nature of our investment in BluePlan, the Board has authorized an additional $2,000,000,000 share repurchase program. This new program will begin immediately after we complete our existing authorization and will run through the end of twenty twenty nine. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to provide more details on our operating results and the status of key strategic initiatives.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Chris?

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

Thanks, Tony. Our production network continued to operate very well in the first quarter. For the second quarter in a row, we produced over 2,600,000 tons of gross ammonia, which reflects 100% utilization rate. We continue to project approximately 10,000,000 tons of gross ammonia production in 2025. Turning to our strategic initiatives, we are nearing completion of our landmark Donaldsonville complex carbon capture and sequestration project.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

Project. Commissioning activities for the carbon dioxide dehydration and compression unit are in advanced stages, and we expect start up of sequestration in the second half of twenty twenty five. This will also initiate the 45Q tax credit generation on up to 2,000,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide on an annual basis. Longer term, we believe our BluePoint joint venture presents a compelling growth opportunity for the company given the tighter global nitrogen supply demand balance we project for the end of the decade. Additionally, our positive FID announcement has advanced existing conversations and spurred interest in our portion of Blue Point ammonia production.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

We are pleased that the joint venture includes world class partners in JERA and Mitsui, with whom we will share cost and offtake. The joint venture's priorities for the rest of 2025 are to build out our project team, order long lead equipment items and further prepare the site for construction. With that, let me turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

Thanks, Chris. The CF Industries team navigated a dynamic environment through the first part of 2025, driven by a tight nitrogen supply demand balance.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

In particular, we have seen strong global demand as the very low corn stocks to use ratio points to a need to replenish global corn stocks. In North America, Farmer economics favor corn. The USDA reported corn planting expectations of 95,000,000 acres in The United States this year. However, based on the nitrogen demand we are seeing, we believe that the final planted corn acres for 2025 will likely be higher. At the same time, channel inventories of nitrogen fertilizer are low due to high demand and industry production outages as well as lower than typical net imports of UAN and urea.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

This has supported prices well into the second quarter. Given the strong demand and tight availability across our network, we expect to end the spring season low with low inventory across all our products, positioning us well for our fill programs and the rest of 2025. We expect the global nitrogen industry conditions to remain constructive into the second half of the year. Globally, we believe nitrogen inventory is averaged to lower throughout the key consuming regions, supporting strong demand. This includes Brazil, the world's largest importer of urea, as well as India, which has not secured target volumes for its last few urea tenders.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

However, the expected start up of new ammonia capacity in North America this year may bring more volatility in global ammonia prices as trade flows adjust. Longer term, we expect the global nitrogen supply demand balance to tighten through the end of the decade. Capital availability, long term feedstock costs, and geopolitical events continue to limit the number of new projects. As a result, projected new capacity growth is not keeping pace with demand growth for traditional fertilizer and industrial applications. We believe demand for low carbon ammonia for new applications such as power generation will only further tighten the global supply demand balance.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

With that, Greg will cover our financial performance.

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

Thanks, Bert. For the first quarter of twenty twenty five, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $312,000,000 or $1.85 per diluted share. Net earnings increased approximately 60% compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four, while earnings per share were approximately 80% higher, reflecting our significantly lower share count. EBITDA was $617,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA was $644,000,000 On a trailing twelve month basis, net cash from operations was $2,400,000,000 and free cash flow was approximately $1,600,000,000 We continue to be efficient converters of EBITDA to free cash flow. Our free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate for this time period was 63%.

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

We returned $530,000,000 to shareholders in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. This included $434,000,000 to repurchase 5,400,000.0 shares. Over the last twelve months, we've returned approximately $2,000,000,000 repurchasing nearly 20,000,000 shares for approximately $1,600,000,000 and returning another $353,000,000 in dividend payments. Entering the second quarter, we had approximately $630,000,000 remaining on our current share repurchase authorization. We anticipate completing the remainder of this program before its expiration in December.

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

Upon completion, we will begin an additional $2,000,000,000 share repurchase program, which expires at the end of twenty twenty nine. For the full year, we expect CF Industries capital funded expenditures will be approximately $650,000,000 This includes approximately $500,000,000 related to activities within our existing network and approximately $150,000,000 related to our portion of the Blue Point activities. As we will be consolidating the Blue Point joint venture into our financial statements, our reported capital expenditures will also include the the portion of the Blue Point activities funded by the joint venture partners going forward. With that, Tony will provide some closing remarks before we open up the call to Q and A.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Thanks, Greg. Before we move on to your questions, I want to thank everyone at CF Industries for their contributions to an outstanding first quarter of twenty twenty five. I also want to note that we are holding an Investor Day, June twenty four in New York. Martin and Darla will be contacting you with specific details and invitations. We look forward to talking in more detail about our strategy, initiatives and long term outlook at that time.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

CF Industries is exceptionally well positioned for the years ahead. In the near term, industry dynamics remain favorable for our low cost North American production network. Longer term, we expect the global nitrogen supply demand balance to tighten while our investments in low carbon ammonia production provide a robust growth platform with attractive returns. Taken together, we expect to continue to drive strong cash generation and create substantial value for long term shareholders. With that, operator, we will now open the call to your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Stephen Byrne with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Steve Byrne
Research Analyst at Bank of America Securities

Thank you. You're only a couple of months away from having some blue ammonia to sell out of D. Ville. Do you have any, off take, lined up for this as of yet?

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

So we've been working on that, Steve, for, quite a while, having a lot of conversations. And yes we do have agreements in place for when that product is available. They're structured for growth and so as we bring on the tons and some of those fees are tied to exports to Europe and some other locations as well as some industrial contracts. We're not fully booked yet and don't anticipate that. We're anticipating demand to grow as the understanding and this product becomes available.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

We're the first and only producer with these tons to the market. And I think when you look around the world with what people are trying to do with their own carbon structures as well as C band, a lot of opportunity in front of us.

Steve Byrne
Research Analyst at Bank of America Securities

And I'm sure you're aware, also in Ascension Parish with DeeVille and your Blue Point project is is the the project that Air Products is trying to get on stream and they would like to either bring on a partner or just sell off ammonia loop. I'm just curious, is this a potential project that you might be interested in? You would be the only one that might be able to put that product into the NuStar pipeline if that opportunity for low carbon corn really develops down the road? Is is is that of interest? And and you you also highlighted your view of of tightening supply and demand in nitrogen through the end of of the decade.

Steve Byrne
Research Analyst at Bank of America Securities

So is this a potential project you might also get involved in?

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes, Steve. This is Tony. I think this project, at least from an ammonia producer's perspective, suffers from some of the challenges that we saw with the OCI project and why we opted not to participate in that discussion, which is the hydrogen producer, in this case Air Products, is looking to earn a nice return risk free off of the production of hydrogen and enter into take or pay agreements with the ammonia loop operator at something that is a very high operating cost. Basically, it puts your gas cost in the third or fourth quartile. So while you might get a little bit of a break on CapEx, if you're on the hook to buy gas at $10 an MMBtu, come heck or high water, you're going to be paying, on a gas cost basis, $300 of energy content for a ton of ammonia, whereas our project doesn't suffer from that.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

So that is not a project that we would be interested in, in any way because we don't want to deploy that level of capital against non competitive assets.

Steve Byrne
Research Analyst at Bank of America Securities

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Richard Gurke Torino with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Richard Garchitorena
Richard Garchitorena
Vice President - Equity Research at Wells Fargo Securities

Thanks and a nice quarter. Just a question on BluePoint. Congrats on the close of JV. But just on the partnership stakes, JERA has an option to reduce your stake before the end of the year. If you can just give us some clarity on some of the conditions there and in terms of like what the potential in terms of changes in offtake for the other partners would be?

Richard Garchitorena
Richard Garchitorena
Vice President - Equity Research at Wells Fargo Securities

If you

Richard Garchitorena
Richard Garchitorena
Vice President - Equity Research at Wells Fargo Securities

took, I guess, the remaining stake taking you up

Richard Garchitorena
Richard Garchitorena
Vice President - Equity Research at Wells Fargo Securities

to 60%, how would that impact sort of marketing of the tons going forward type of thing? Thanks.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes. So we fully expect that JERA is going to want to maintain their ownership level at 35%. On the other hand, if they opt to return 15% of the economics back to us, we're very comfortable with that. It still only puts us at 55% ownership of the overall project. And we believe that the economics around this project are very attractive.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

And so having incrementally a little more of the equity and the offtake, offtake is proportionate to equity ownership, is something that we are 100% comfortable with. But we don't believe that's going

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

to be

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

the ultimate outcome of all of this. And the incremental tonnage that you're talking about on that 15% is, call it roughly 200,000 tons. And Bert has plenty of options in terms of where to take those tons, both at home and abroad. So again, we have no issues at all with that.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

Yes, just building on that, Richard, as we've mentioned in our prepared remarks, we're seeing more interest since the announcement of this particular project with individuals looking for low carbon production assets or production off take. So I don't think it would be that big of a stretch for us to find a home to that. But I agree with Tony that I would find that to be somewhat of an unlikely case given Jairus' position.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Tony Bert, team, maybe talk about the market. It's obviously been quite a hot spring market in The US for urea and UAN. Maybe talk about what you've seen. It seems like now we're starting to cool off. What your views are going into the spring and summer?

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Do you have a view on where fall could summer market would be? And were you able to capture in Q2 here a lot of the surge? Or what was your book like?

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

We're pleased with our order book. Normally, this type of environment in a commodity business, you're always building your order book for the approximate one, two, and three months. And so as you see the results in Q1, we exceeded expectations. And for Q2 we had a book coming in, but also opened positions which executing against today and you're seeing those in the publications. It has been a very positive market.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

A lot of that's related to, some of the issues we've talked about, which the inventories coming in to North America were lower. And I think because of the tariffs you've seen some diversions of vessels which limited probably prompt availability for the May or April May June timeframe. And our plants have operated very well. Our network was prepared. I got to give a shout out to our logistics team, Mike Muller and the folks in the supply group of putting the product in the terminals at the right time, understanding where, because of weather, where demand would be.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

And so we capitalized on that. And so some of the prices you're seeing in the market, we're executing against that. Feel very good about Q2. And that will probably then extend into Q3. And I would say the fill programs are going to be later than anticipation just because of low inventories in North America outside of CF as well as CF.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

And we'll execute accordingly but believe that we have a positive market in front of us.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

And then on different tacks here, you know, Tony, when you did do the FID about a month ago on Blue Point, it was obviously remained, you know, a very interesting macro and tariff environment. You know, just thinking about historical context, you see other golf producers, the capital inflation we saw on projects a decade ago, early last decade, the problems of labor rates and getting good labor and what you have to pay for it. How do you, you know, mitigate what, you know, could be very strong capital inflation or not? Like, what can you do with your partners to make this so it's not going to really affect the level of buyback you can do in the next four years?

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes, Joel. So we're taking a fundamentally different approach to the construction of this plant than what we employed historically. And by that I mean the last projects we did, and in fact the ones we did prior to that, were all what you'd call stick build. So individual I beams going up and creating attachment points for the vessels and continuing to build it kind of piece by piece by piece. And when you're doing that, the vast majority of construction content is happening here on-site.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

And you are subject, because of the way that those are contracted on a reimbursable basis,

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

to

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

the possibility of inflationary pressures and potential time delays. The approach that we're taking on this project is really one of modular construction. So these very large integrated modules are being constructed overseas and will be shipped here and basically just positioned in place, secured to the mounting locations, and then connected together. So the amount of on-site construction content here in The US is dramatically reduced. And we are choosing with our partners and our EPC our, I guess, EPC provider to find locations where we can construct it which are much less likely to be affected by any kind of tariff regime should it be in place in the long term.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

And those modules are all being constructed on a fixed price basis. So much more of the content is what you'd call LSTK, and therefore, lump sum turnkey. Therefore, you are not subject to the kind of inflationary pressures or the potential overrun of labor content that we were the last time we were doing this.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Great. Thank you so much. So Tony, there's been a

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

lot of debate around the intermediate to long term cost curve just given gas supply issues elsewhere in the world, geopolitics, so on and so forth. Can you just give us an update on how you're thinking about that as it relates to nitrogen cost curve? And within that, basically how you're thinking about free cash flow conversion and your ability not only to buy back shares, but also obviously fully facilitate the CapEx updates, which you gave us today, which were roughly in line with our expectations? Thank you.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes, you bet. So I think it's regardless of which service or whose analysis you're looking at, it's pretty undeniable that The U. S. Is one of the lowest cost regions in the world from a gas production perspective. Really with the rule of law and the access to cavern space for CCS and supportive regulation, really, I think, the best place in the world to build these kind of assets.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

We expect that to be true not only today, but going forward into the future. And despite the fact that there are some LNG capacity coming online in The U. S, the level of demand for natural gas continues to go up at a rate that I think is equal to or above the level of liquefaction capacity that is coming online. That's particularly true when you consider the number of data centers going in to support AI and other applications and the power consumption that those things draw. So as we look at it, we do not see substantial long term compression between gas costs in Europe and parts of Asia and The US.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

We think that's going to be much more sticky than what some people are forecasting doom and gloom in that regard. But as you look through what energy consumption continues to be and demand for natural gas is, we couldn't be happier locating this production asset in The U. S.

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Got it. And when we take a step back and we think about the ultimate return for BluePoint, presumably, we're looking at a site fee tax credits as well as the return on your proportion of what's produced. Can you kind of walk us through how we should be thinking about not only those baselines and what's locked in versus the variability of the tons? And then also presumably, you'll be selling some of those tons to yourself in The UK and getting a benefit there. So can you help us just conceptualize like the structure of how we should be forecasting that?

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Thank you.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes. So at a 40% ownership, we're going to have about, just call it roughly 650,000 tons. It'll likely be a bit more than that, given that historically we are operating assets at above their nameplate capacity. And certainly did with Deeville 6 and Port Neal 2. And so about half of that is tentatively earmarked to go into The UK to be able to produce extremely low carbon ammonium nitrate for The UK and European marketplace, which should have a significant advantage given the CBAM regime that's getting put in place.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

The rest of it we have a lot of options for. As Bert has talked about, we've been working on this for a while just on the Dvil CCS project, but are beginning to now talk about extremely low carbon intensity product coming out of Blue Point. And so we're talking about a relatively small number of tons given the scope of our ongoing operation. And again, Bert's got more, I would say, demand than we do have tons available given half of that is going to go to The UK. The rest of the tons are being off take.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

The off take is for our partners who are going to be using that product largely in Asia. And so that's going to disappear. And they're basically, because they're into the project on the equity side, are going to be paying full cost on those the same as we are and we'll receive production economics just like we will as well.

Christopher Parkinson
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Lucas Beaumont with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Hi, good morning. Yes, I just wanted to ask about tariffs. So I just wanted to get your view on how you see that kind of impacting the various sort of nitrogen derivative markets in The U. S, I guess, over the near term to start with.

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

And then if we look a

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

bit further out twelve to eighteen months to give trade flows a chance to adjust. I mean, you expect to sort of see pricing uplift in the range of sort of where the marginal importer is, so at least kind of 10%? And do you think that could be reduced over time? Or how do you kind of see those factors playing out? Thanks.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes. In a weird way, and then I'm going to let Bert kind of get into some more specifics. But in a weird way, even though there tends to be tariffs and or sanctions on a lot of Russian product, Russian fertilizer comes unabated into The US with no tariff regime at all. So in a lot of ways, we are creating trade policy that is advantaging the Russians to access this marketplace at potentially the expense of much more closely allied countries. And so there is a perversion in terms of what's going on with trade policy in that particular event.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

But I'll let Bert go into some of the more details here.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

When you look at the tariff structures that are in place for today for certain countries and Tony is 100% correct, the frustration Russia is the largest importer of UAN and urea to The United States at almost 1,500,000 tons of urea at zero tariff, so it's not tariff. So of the total, we have almost 2,000,000 tons that come in tariff free. So if you structure where we import 4,000,000 to 5,000,000 tons a year, the rest of it comes from basically The Middle East and North Africa, Qatar at 10%, Algeria at 30%, Nigeria at 14%, Oman, UAE, Egypt all at 10%. So you are going to have an impact and you're exactly right. There's going be a trade flow movement of probably tons going different directions in the meantime.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

But The US has been one of the lowest priced markets consistently in the world. And I think this will have an impact and will probably move closer to a Brazil parity or even slightly above that. And it will be as this unfolds, I think it will impact behavior in terms of when and how people are purchasing their imported tons. We feel very confident. That North American market is the best market in the world.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

And we've got great customers and we're working with them to make sure that they're adequately supplied today as well as in the forward market. And we may be positioning more of our tons domestically, which is a perfect solution.

Operator

Thank you.

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Alright. Thanks. And then sorry.

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

And then I just had a follow-up on BluePoint. So I just wanted to kind of you called out a couple of other components there to the agreement. I just sort of wanted to check. So you said there was like some shared service revenue components on the management of the facility. And then just with regard to sort of the credits, I was assuming that would be split evenly based on the ownership percentage and the offtake as well.

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Would that be right?

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

Yes. So from the common facility standpoint, CF will be funding that, and that's that $550,000,000 that will be spent over the five year period in which we'll receive a fee and payment that will more than cover the cost of capital and then some on that from our partners as we go forward. Related to the 45Q tax credit incentive associated with the carbon we sequester there, that will be spread throughout the JV and essentially go back on equity percentage terms.

Lucas Beaumont
Lucas Beaumont
Director Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group

Great, thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Hey, good morning. So, I'm thinking on tariffs here. If the EU implement tariffs on Russian product, what's your thought on how like UAN trade flows rearrange? So could you see more Russian UAN going to The U. S?

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

And then maybe it doesn't make more sense for The U. S? I understand that there's a benefit from the tariffs right now on other sources, but Russian does in a lot into The U. S. On the UAN, like does it make more sense to send it into Europe if tariffs are quite high on Russian product into Europe?

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

So there are those are being discussed and implemented for Russian product into the EU and there are various discussions on different structures. But that could be an eventual outcome. We are an exporter to the EU and The UK for UAN and have been for years and have some very good partners there that we are in conversations with and supplying. So I think a few years ago there was a urea plant that was dropped in, and took away some of the UAN capacity that Russia had, Akron. And I do think they're more balancing in terms of what we see from behavior of, in terms of what's the value of the end molecule, in terms of UAN, urea, ammonia, or ammonium nitrate.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

And so volume that comes to The US today, I would assume that continues at least in the present structure of tariffs and zero tariffs on Russian product, probably continue at the same level. And then we'll see how the rest of the world settles out.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thank you.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

And then maybe

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

just including ammonia pricing when you are discussing with your potential customers, I'm just curious like what factors you talked about? Like you talked about, like energy content equivalent and then look at that from price equivalent pricing. Do you for industrial users, you take like a merchant ammonia and then put a clean ammonia premium on it? If If you're building a new plant, does the returns factor into those pricing conversations? Any of that detail would be great.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thanks.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

In terms of how this is being laid out in the market, it's a fairly understood value proposition of low carbon. And so as companies look at their scope emissions and their structures and what they're doing and what they need, whether that be an ag with the corn value chain or with an industrial production such as a synthetic fiber producer or ammonia as a chemical intermediate, everyone's trying to improve their position and obviously cost structure. So the conversations with the customers are, we have this product, it is a unique product, it's coming online, and this is part of the preparation of get ready, are you interested, okay you're interested, at what level, how does this work with contracts, because we want to contract generally on an industrial basis we have annual or multi year contracts. And then you're exactly right, one factor we talk about is we're going to have a separate line item for the value of low carbon ammonia, and the intention is that initially that will start off at a fairly lower level, and then as demand builds, then there will be a competition for the molecule. But the first series of low carbon ammonia that's coming off of Donaldsonville with the CCS program in Q3 is in preparation for the new plant that will come on in 2029 and that will be I would say not low close to zero carbon product and that's even more attractive to the market.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

What you see from CF is like anything, we're well prepared, we're in the market, we're communicating clearly with our customers with the expectation of a carbon premium for this product.

Andrew Wong
Andrew Wong
Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Benjamin Theore with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Benjamin Theurer
Managing Director at Barclays Corporate & Investment Bank

Yes. Thank you very much for taking my question. One quick one is we saw news that the Chinese government is setting an export window from May through September for urea as it relates to the potential quota to be similar to the 2023 level. So when we look through your materials, is that something that's basically as expected from you guys? Or is more meaningful from a negative perspective just as it goes out?

Benjamin Theurer
Managing Director at Barclays Corporate & Investment Bank

And also if you can comment anything around the fact that the Chinese are restricting this to India, which seems to be a big purchase. And then I have a quick follow-up on guest markets.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes. So the world is very tight and arguably short urea capacity. So the world really needs these tons to become available and part of the global trade flow. We're fully expecting and have considered somewhere in the neighborhood of 3,000,000, maybe 4,000,000 tons to come out of China during this period of time. And so I think that's wholly consistent with our expectations.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

One of the things to keep an eye on is what happens to the domestic price of urea within China. Because the last time that, quote unquote, door got opened and price started rising, they rescinded providing export licenses to people. And so what came out was actually a lot less than what was expected. But we think that the world really needs these tons, and so it's helpful to the overall functioning market.

Benjamin Theurer
Managing Director at Barclays Corporate & Investment Bank

Okay, and then there has been noise that goes into different directions. Some say there might be US and Russia trying to work together to figure out the gas flow back to the European Union, what basically was cut with the invasion back a few years ago. But others say that the European Union is considering a potential embargo actually on Russian gas. Have you seen or heard any news, any comment that you have as to the expectations for that Russian gas into Europe How would we want to think about this for the gas price in Europe?

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yeah, the initiative that we've been kind of following is the plan to basically completely wean Europe off of Russian gas by 'twenty seven and really provide a restriction on access to that marketplace. So I don't know what The US has to say about that or the role that we play because if the Europeans decide they don't want it, there's very little other people can do to make them take it. That is very much a European policy issue, which I'm afraid is these days almost as opaque as Washington is. Alrighty, thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Jordan Lee with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jordan Lee
Jordan Lee
Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hi, thank you. We are seeing a pretty strong divergence between urea and ammonia prices currently. In terms of the delta and margin between the two, can you talk about how it compares to history and how you expect that to play out going forward?

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

We're seeing a divergence internationally and in ammonia today the market is, and I talked about this in my prepared remarks with the two plants that are coming online in the Gulf Coast, today the market in the East is long or longer and you've seen a price differential between East and West markets. And then with the expectation of these two plants which would be probably in excess of 200,000 tons a month coming online needing to find a home, that's the projected weakness. And you're correct, there is a divergence and urea is staying fairly stronger worldwide, almost close to ammonia parity at $400 a ton coming into North America or Brazil. And so that's a reflection of supply and demand and additional supply coming on. And in terms of how that looks historically, that's an imbalance.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

And I would expect that to be corrected through the addition of additional urea plants being built to soak up some of that extra ton, as well as what we've talked about is the growth and consumption of ammonia as a feedstock and as in low carbon markets.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

I'd also though add to that. It's important to separate the price of traded ammonia, Tampa, North Sea, other pricing points versus the price of ammonia in the interior used for agricultural applications. Those two are historically fairly different. And the new plants that Bert is referencing, those don't have access to in market terminals in the Corn Belt for use in agricultural applications. So those are going to be focused exclusively on the merchant market globally.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

And so that's why you see a little bit of, as Bert said, that overhang and divergence. But from an in market agricultural application, the price of ammonia is still very strong, although you're also getting near the end of the application window. Whereas urea requirements are still very, very strong, and that's also part of the reason why you see a difference there as well.

Jordan Lee
Jordan Lee
Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Got it. Okay, thank you. And the general sense was that farmers under applied last fall. Do you think US Farmers will get down all of the nitrogen that they would like to this spring or are there any constraints such as the urea or UAN supply that you would call out?

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

I think there's a question on availability of the N or type of N that farmers in different regions are wanting. So Tony talked about ammonia in the Midwest and it has been very attractive. Out of our terminals that's probably around $650 a ton, where you talk about the international market at four hundred dollars But there is a very tight market today in North America for urea and UAN, and we expect that maybe additional side dress of ammonia will take place that maybe wouldn't have in other years. But today, when you look at the corn bean ratio and the crop insurance for the revenue guarantees that are available to a farmer, selecting corn this year makes economic sense. And then if that's the case, maximizing yield through the use of nitrogen makes ultimate sense.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

And so we're actually seeing, we talked about this in the prepared remarks, 95,000,000 acres is probably going to be higher just based on what we're seeing with demand. And for exactly your question on application rates, I would say today they're probably going to be higher and you're going to see yields in irrigated areas and high yielding areas of the I States probably pretty good, but the dry land places I think will be interesting as well. So we do have a stock to use ratio that's very low for corn globally. And so there's a need for this product to be produced in North America and it's been a very exciting market.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Edlain Rodriguez
Equity Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Thank you and good morning everyone. So guys, when you're looking at given the level of grain inventories, crop prices, as you said, start to use ratio levels, like how would you describe the current ad fundamentals? Like good, great mix? And it could be either globally or in The US. How would you describe the ag fundamentals right now?

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

Yeah, it would be differentiated based on obviously location crop and activity and timing. So the inventories for, and specific to corns as we've been talking about and that's our favorite consumer of nitrogen, are very low globally. You're at decades lows globally excluding China And that's kind of a question mark and always has been with what inventories are there. But the fundamentals at the farm gate are not as positive as they have been in the previous several years based on cost of inputs, cost of land rent, and the output values of corn, soybeans, and wheat. And so with crush margins suffering and soybeans a little bit lower, that's why we believe corn will be the preferred choice where available in North America.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

What has happened in other years is sometimes like in places like Brazil or Argentina, devaluation that assist farmers in terms of their profitability. You've seen some taxes come off in Argentina. And so we see those countries continue to grow, but also growth along the side of protein production and ethanol production specific to Brazil. So it's different in different places. Europe is subsidized, India is subsidized, and an interesting side note is also the growth of urea consumption in China, both for ag and industry, that China's consumption has grown substantially of urea.

Bert Frost
Bert Frost
Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain at CF Industries

But again, it's subsidized with low cost coal and a very inexpensive product is related to the world market. So all to say differentiated market, I think for The US Farmer or North American farmer, a challenged but acceptable historical regard to returns, but they need to watch their dollars and cents.

Edlain Rodriguez
Equity Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Jeff J. Kauskas with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jeff Zekauskas
Jeff Zekauskas
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Thanks very much. Was the quarter in some ways unusually profitable in that sequentially your gas costs were up maybe $1.25 per MMBtu and maybe sequentially that's something like, I don't know, 130,000,000 in cost inflation and your cost of goods sold was up sequentially maybe by about $90,000,000 Can you talk about the I get it you sold a few more tons in the first quarter than you did in the fourth and your price per ton was a little bit higher. But when you net it out, it seemed that the sequential change was a little bit larger than expected.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Think it comes down to, as you said, just a couple of big moving pieces here, which is Bert was able to get great price realization against a little bit of a headwind of higher gas costs, which subtracted from that a little bit and the demand was very robust. But the way we think about this business, so we continue to come back to this over and over again, which is because we try to run our plants 20 fourseven, three sixty five, there is a maximum amount of capacity that we have and we run it as close to full as we possibly can. And we can only produce or sell what we produce. And fortunately, the plants and the whole network ran really, really well in the first quarter and are continuing to run really well in the second quarter. And you get a little bit of inventory fluctuations here or there.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

We think about the business on a half year and a full year basis, not on an individual quarter basis. And like you said though, which is good price realization, a little bit of headwind on the gas front. But going into the second quarter, we've got much more moderated gas environment and even stronger pricing environment than where we entered into Q1. And so we're excited about what the first half of this year looks like.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

And Jeff, I would actually add to that, that our controllable cost per ton were actually significantly lower than what they have been in the past. That's our cost of goods sold less our gas and depreciation and our distribution. So we're actually to Tony's point, how we are producing at 100% utilization, we saw those benefits come through uncontrollable. What you're seeing in the COGS related, as you've mentioned, to a higher gas cost on a sequential basis, but also the purchases that come into The UK and also our LSB agreement where we purchased some of their ammonia tons and then additionally our point leases. So as those prices were elevated a little bit, you see that in COGS.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

When you back those out from that perspective, you're actually going to see a much more efficient quarter than what we had in Q4 and definitely what we had in prior year quarter.

Jeff Zekauskas
Jeff Zekauskas
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Okay. And in terms of your capital expenditures that are actually your own, what might they be in 2026 or 'twenty seven, ballpark, exclusive of the monies that would come from

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yeah, mean, think our business historically has run about $500,000,000 a year for the legacy business. That includes a little bit of improvement capital like we've done with the CCS projects and expanding our DEF capacity and some of those things, and also allowing us to invest in infrastructure on the IT side and so forth. So 500,000,000 is a pretty reasonable estimate year in and year out for how we've been able to manage the business. And then as we look at our portion of the CapEx for BluePoint next year, it's not really till you get out to '27 and '28 that the bulk of that money starts getting spent. Chris said we are going to be doing some site prep and whatnot this year.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

There's going to be a little bit of civil work that gets done next year. I'd expect next year to run somewhere in the neighborhood of about $300,000,000 in terms of 26,000,000 And so we're still talking, I don't know, $750,000,000 to $800 ish of our CapEx.

Jeff Zekauskas
Jeff Zekauskas
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

And then where is the carbon dioxide going to be stored for Donaldsonville exactly? Who's going to store it?

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yeah, so we have an ongoing active dialogue with our partner ExxonMobil. And they have a number of different alternatives and different permits that are in kind of advanced stages. And so we're working through the details on that to partner with them. It may mean that we go to EOR for a couple of months until the Class VI permit comes through, or we may opt to just wait until the Class VI is ready to go. Those are ongoing conversations between the two of us to make sure that we maximize the economics around the project.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

But as we've mentioned in our earlier remarks, we expect to begin likely flowing gas here in the second, third quarters. And we're excited about the outcome not only from the standpoint of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but getting the 45Q credit and having a low carbon product then that BERT can take into the marketplace with a premium.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Vincent Andrews
Vincent Andrews
Managing Director at Morgan Stanley

Thank you and good morning. It's a while away, but I'd be curious what your plan is in terms of how you're going to report Blue Point within your financials. Are you intending to just put it in the existing ammonia segment? Or is this an opportunity for some differentiation and maybe or maybe not including your other ammonia facilities that have contracted volume that have sort of less volatility in their profitability through the cycle? How are thinking of disclosing everything to us?

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

Yes. Hey Vincent, it's Greg. So first big step we've gone through is made the determination that we're going to consolidate the entire entity into our financials and that's our plan to do that. So the first part will be all the revenue and costs associated with BluePoint for our share as well as our partners will come through our statement and then, we'll take that out at the end through the 60% that goes to them through the non controlling intra side. Given that the product is ammonia, our expectation is that we will likely report this in the ammonia segment and keep our business segment intact as the way they are.

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

There's a way in which we run the business with how we report it. And the team that runs the ammonia segment from a commercial standpoint will be as responsible for these tons as they are for the other tons coming out of our other facility. So I don't foresee a change at all in that. And then as we do get into reporting, and you're going to see this in the second quarter, you saw it in our press release this time where we talk about the CapEx of the entire entity. When you get to the second quarter financials, since we're receiving cash from the joint venture, our cash balances will include what the joint venture is consolidated in.

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

But we will break that out through the footnotes and other disclosures so people have perfect clarity on what the legacy business is in addition plus where the JV is to get to the total. So we'll make it as easy as we can to make sure that you can do your comparisons year over year, quarter over quarter as we move forward.

Vincent Andrews
Vincent Andrews
Managing Director at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thanks. And as a follow-up, you're obviously in conversations both for the Blue product out of D. Ville and then ultimately for Blue Point. What type of off take agreements are you looking for? Do you feel the need to have them?

Vincent Andrews
Vincent Andrews
Managing Director at Morgan Stanley

Or is there some percentage of the volume you'd like to have on them? What are the thresholds? Or are you just sort of open to anything at this point given it's so far away?

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

Yes. I mean, I would say in general, when you are locking in prearranged off take agreement, you tend to do it off of some type of either gas plus basis or there may be a mix of gas plus end market kind of impact on it. And as just a broad brush generality, that tends to be lower margin over long periods of time than us having an ability to move it into the marketplaces and take advantage of some of the upside opportunities that the market provides. So for instance, our historical contracts on ammonia supply to Mosaic, while it played a very important role as we brought on the Donaldsonville project and actually was helpful to us as a natural hedge in the first year or two because the contract was above where market price was. It has been a fantastic deal for Mosaic ever since because it's trading the contract formula is well below what we've otherwise been able to achieve.

W. Anthony Will
W. Anthony Will
President, CEO & Director at CF Industries

And so based on the scope and size of our operation, we may consider small pieces of it that make sense, but we're certainly not looking to pre contract the whole of our production volume because, again, historically, we've been able to get much better returns by allowing Bert to do what he does best.

Vincent Andrews
Vincent Andrews
Managing Director at Morgan Stanley

Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Sorry for the follow-up. Think, Tony, I think you said that run rate sorry, CapEx next year might be $750,000,000 to $800,000,000 But when you look at your Slide 11, I think, you add up the numbers, assuming $500,000,000 maintenance, you get to something like 900 to 9 50 million Can you just clarify?

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

Yes, Joel, I think what Tony was talking about, one was the CF portion. And what you should look at probably 2526%, we're going to have 10% to 15% each of those years of our total amount. So as he mentioned, have $500,000,000 that is our EHS and sustaining CapEx. And then incremental to that, you can kind of plan about circa $150,000,000 over the next two years. It's really 2728 as you're referencing the slide in our deck where you start to see a little bit larger, which would be a couple hundred million dollars for CF coming out in 'twenty seven and 'twenty eight, and then a light tail in 'twenty nine when the project comes online.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

I would look at so that

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

No, sorry.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

I was going to say, so if you had to kind of bundle where we think we're going to be this year, it's about $6.50 this year, probably slightly north of that next year, not by much. And then increasing in the 2728 period.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

I'm still confused because that slide, if you add up the numbers, suggests it's a little over 900 next year. So where am I wrong here? Or what's what's missing?

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

So are you are you taking it just as CF's portion of that, which is a 4040%.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Yeah. 500,000,000 maintenance plus 40% of the 15% and then 100% of the 35%.

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

Yeah.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Isn't that over 900?

Christopher Bohn
Christopher Bohn
EVP, COO & Director at CF Industries

A % of the

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

Yeah, if you take the chart as we have it, and we've tilted them, so there's a range that we work with internally and ties close to the tilde, but there's some tilde here. So if you take into account our sustaining at the 400 to 500 that it's been before, And then Blue Point this year, we've got it at 150, that is about the same as Chris said, next year up slightly. And then as well, when you take in the scalable infrastructure for a little bit more, it does move you up closer to that number that you gave there.

Joel Jackson
Joel Jackson
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you very much.

Gregory Cameron
Gregory Cameron
Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer at CF Industries

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Martin Cherovski for any closing remarks.

Martin Jarosick
Martin Jarosick
VP - IR & Treasury at CF Industries

Thanks for joining us today.

Martin Jarosick
Martin Jarosick
VP - IR & Treasury at CF Industries

We look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Martin Jarosick
      Martin Jarosick
      VP - IR & Treasury
    • W. Anthony Will
      W. Anthony Will
      President, CEO & Director
    • Christopher Bohn
      Christopher Bohn
      EVP, COO & Director
    • Bert Frost
      Bert Frost
      Executive Vice President of Sales, Market Development & Supply Chain
    • Gregory Cameron
      Gregory Cameron
      Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer
Analysts

Key Takeaways

  • CF Industries reported Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $644 million and net earnings of $312 million ($1.85 per share) on 100% utilization and 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia production.
  • The Board authorized an additional $2 billion share repurchase program, building on the $5 billion returned to shareholders since 2022 through buybacks and dividends.
  • The Donaldsonville carbon capture and sequestration project is in advanced commissioning, set to sequester up to 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually in H2 2025 and generate 45Q tax credits.
  • CF Industries reached FID on the BluePoint low-carbon ammonia joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, planning ~650 kt of equity production and starting major site preparation in 2025.
  • Management sees continuing tight global nitrogen markets, low channel inventories and strong pricing into H2 2025 amid limited new capacity and growing demand for low-carbon ammonia.
A.I. generated. May contain errors.
Earnings Conference Call
CF Industries Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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