Smiths News H1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 7, 2025

There are 5 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Smiths News plc Investor Presentation. Throughout this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen only mode. Questions are encouraged.

Speaker 1

They can

Operator

be submitted at any time via the Q and A tab that's just situated on the right hand corner of your screen. Please just simply type in your questions and press send. The company may not be in a position to answer every question it receives during the meeting itself. However, the company can review all questions submitted today, and we'll publish those responses where it's appropriate to do so on the Investor Meet company platform. Before we begin, as usual, we would just like to submit the following poll.

Operator

And if you could give that your kind attention, I'm sure the company would be most grateful. And I would now like to hand you over to the executive management team from Smiths News plc. John, good afternoon, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jay. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Smiths News interim results for the twenty six weeks ending the 03/01/2025. I'm John Bunting, CEO of Smiths News, and with me today to talk through our half year results presentation is Paul Baker, our group CFO. So starting with the headlines. We've made a good start to the current financial year, and the business is on track to deliver the FY '25 results in line with market expectations.

Speaker 2

We've seen an increase in operating profit, up 3.2%, alongside a strong cash flow performance in the period. As highlighted in our full year results in November, we continue to leverage our news and magazine business whilst also seeking to drive growth. We have made progress across all three growth verticals comprising Smith News Recycle, new categories, and Final Mile. Our internal investment program has also gathered pace with the successful implementation of a new warehouse management system at one regional hub, and the broader rollout will be complete in this financial year. We have 91% of our existing publisher revenue stream secured to 2029, which not only provide assurance of revenues across the short and medium term, but also provides the foundations to support our strategic intent to broaden our early morning end to end supply chain solutions.

Speaker 2

We have again generated strong cash flow in the period and today announced a proposed interim dividend of 1.75p per share. I'll now hand over to Paul to walk through the financials before coming back to discuss each of these points in a little more detail later in the presentation.

Speaker 3

Many thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone. Starting with the financial summary. Revenues declined 0.6% in the period, lower than our guidance of a 3% to 5% decline, supported by the benefits of our twenty twenty four contract wins in London and The Midlands as well as football and Pokemon collectibles. We will look at revenue in more detail on the next slide. Adjusted operating profit increased by NOK 600,000.0 to NOK 19,400,000.0 in the first half, driven by improved sales in collectibles, the annualization of the twenty twenty four contract wins and increased profit from our growth activities.

Speaker 3

Importantly, our ongoing cost efficiency program is in line with plan and in the first half delivered another 3,000,000 of gross improvements. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 10% to 5.4p, benefiting from the increased operating profit and the lower interest cost under our new banking facility signed in May. Average net debt has reduced by 11,400,000.0 to 1,100,000.0, driven by consistent cash flow in the first half, but noting that the ordinary and special dividends were paid in February at the end of the reported period. Just to give a little more color to our revenue numbers. Our headline revenue numbers show a decline of 0.6% in the first half, which is again below the 3% to 5% annual decline which we guide to.

Speaker 3

Since COVID, our underlying newspaper and magazine performance, which makes up over 90% of our total revenue, has been impacted by a number of things, pricing, contract wins, and last year, the fifty third trading week. So for example, the annualization of our additional contract wins last financial year give a 1.6% benefit year on year, and this drives the majority of the difference between our headline number of a minus naught point 6% and guidance. If you exclude this annualization, newspaper and magazine showed a decline of minus 3.1%, which is within our expected range of three to 5%, albeit at the lower end. Collectibles increased in the half by 4.3%, demonstrating the continued popularity of football collections and the increased interest in the latest Pokemon series. Revenue from strategic growth initiatives, while relatively small compared to the headline newspaper and magazine revenue, also contributed to the headline movement, increasing by 25% in the period.

Speaker 3

Onto the adjusted income statement. Below operating profit, net finance charges in the period are 1,200,000.0 lower than last year, driven by the continued reduction in average debt and the improved commercials in the banking facility signed last year. We recently extended this facility for an additional year to May 2028 and have a remaining option available in twelve months' time to extend further to May 2029. With lower finance charges, profit before tax increased by 1,800,000.0 or 11.3% to 17,700,000.0, with earnings per share then increasing by 10% to 5.4p. An interim dividend of 1.75p in line with last year has been approved by the board and will be paid in July.

Speaker 3

Total free cash flow for the half was an inflow of 13,300,000.0, an increase of 9,100,000.0 from last year, partly due to a favorable timing of our working capital cycle, but also included the inflows from both the McCall's administrators and the pension tax refund, which are included within adjusting items of 2,100,000.0. Capital expenditure at 2,300,000.0 is 400,000.0 higher than last year, and we expect this rate to accelerate into the second half in line with our planned increase in investment over the next three years. Lease payments have increased by 600,000 year on year due to inflationary impacts on lease renewals, of which there have been seven over the last twelve months. Net interest and fees are lower than in 2024 by 800,000, thanks to the cash impact of the lower levels of borrowing and interest margins mentioned earlier. Over the last twelve months, the business has generated an underlying cash flow of 24,200,000.0, consistent with the 20 to 25,000,000 annual inflow the business has been delivering for some time.

Speaker 3

Additional income, including amounts received from the McCourt administrator and a pension tax refund, have been positive one offs recorded in adjusting items of 2,100,000.0. Over the last two years, we have focused on average net debt as a headline measure as reported net debt is impacted by the term timing of our working capital cycle. Average net debt had reduced from 12,500,000.0 in half one twenty twenty four to just 1,000,000 in the first half this year, noting that the dividend payments were made at the end of the period in February and do not significantly impact the average. As a reminder, at the end of the last financial year, we announced a special dividend on top of our 2x ordinary dividend. For the current year, the board will again assess the cash generated from trading along with the needs to invest in both the core and growth sides of the business before deciding on any further distributions in line with our capital allocation policy.

Speaker 3

I'll now hand back

Speaker 2

to John. Thank you, Paul. I'll now do a quick refresh of our strategic priorities before looking at our H1 performance in a little more detail. Before I walk through our operational and strategic progress, I wanted to quickly remind everyone of our broader vision for the business. Simply put, our aim is to consolidate our position as one of The UK's leading providers of early morning end to end supply chain solutions, and our substantial news and magazine footprint provides an ideal platform to deliver that.

Speaker 2

We're doing this by making our customers' lives easier and more profitable, enabling them to focus on what they do best. Our existing news and magazine business is a great example of this purpose in action. Our publisher clients could create their own distribution teams, drivers, and van fleet, but this is not what they do best. What they do best is create fabulous content for consumers. Having a trusted partner to undertake the logistics execution enables our clients to fully focus on their areas of differentiation.

Speaker 2

Lastly, our existing capabilities and expertise will ultimately provide the backbone to our success. We already deliver end to end services and are able to draw on our significant experience in warehousing, logistics, and reverse logistics. We have an established presence in the all important early morning and final mile markets, and we are able to leverage our high density UK delivery network to further our growth objectives. Turning to the next slide. We have a very well established and respected logistics business that has two distinct features: an early morning focus and a high density b to b final mile delivery and collection capability.

Speaker 2

We have established our proven expertise in the time sensitive newspaper magazine industry, but these core competencies are transferable. Our strategy, therefore, seeks to do just that, build out from our existing news and magazine business into three new and targeted verticals that offer the potential to penetrate circa 160,000,000 of profit opportunity. Our strategy strives to exploit that in a controlled and measured way, complementing our news and magazine business. Within news and magazines, we've delivered another robust performance in the period, showing minimal headline revenue decline of just 0.6%, which, as Paul explained, was ahead of our medium term expectations of an underlying three to five percentage point decline. We have 91% of publisher revenues contracted to 2029.

Speaker 2

Revenues were boosted by collectibles in the period, including strong demand for football collections and the latest Pokemon collection, which has been particularly popular this year. We continue to invest in strengthening our core capabilities while simultaneously maintaining our asset light business model, which supports and enables our ongoing cost out program. We are on track to deliver circa £5,000,000 of cost savings once again this year, and I'll provide more granularity on our investment in the future capability later in the presentation. Turning to Slide 14 to look at our recycling activities in more detail. We are continuing to make progress in expanding our operations and driving up demand from our existing customer base, with customer numbers up 5% versus FY 2024 across over 900 routes.

Speaker 2

As detailed at the full year results in November, we have evaluated the economics of this market, which is worth 230,000,000 in revenue, is growing at three to five percentage points per annum and offers an EBITDA margin of 10 to 15%. We have recently commenced a small scale trial alongside selected routes in the Northwest Of England to extend our recycling services to non news and magazine customers. This trial will be crucial as we seek to build our understanding of potential dynamics and secure customers beyond our existing independent retailers. Part of our trial process will be to assess market appetite for our services alongside a more appropriate and efficient method to acquire new customers. Our aim is to drive a deeper understanding of the broader economics of the sector, notably the cost of acquisition and the cost to serve.

Speaker 2

The results of the initial trial will determine how we can scale the service across our broader footprint. As we all know, regulation is increasing in this area with simpler recycling and the returns deposit scheme both set to go live in the next two years. We believe both will be helpful in creating further demand for our services. And finally, I'm delighted to say we've appointed a managing director to our recycling operation. We have deliberately chosen a highly commercial director from the waste management sector to help us build the capability required to exploit the opportunities in this growth market both now and indeed in the future.

Speaker 2

We expect them to join by the start of our new financial year. Moving on to look at our news category moving on to look at our new category vertical. This area seeks to capitalize on our Smith News warehousing and early morning final mile services and diversify the suite of products we deliver. We've continued to make progress in the period, delivering books and home entertainment to multiple national supermarket chains. Our ongoing investment in our warehouse management system has enabled us to consolidate activities into a single hub to drive further efficiencies and importantly, future capacity for broader expansion.

Speaker 2

We've also commenced our collaboration with Hallmark in the period, trying the selection and delivery of a bespoke range of Hallmark greeting cards to our independent retailers. And this is a good example of our strategy at work. An independent retailer can now get their news, magazines, and collectibles from us, also their greetings cards, and we can collect their recycling. This enables both parties to access the benefits of a deeper relationship utilizing our existing warehousing and final mile capabilities. Turning to look at the final mile vertical.

Speaker 2

Our supply chain is the critical element in building this out. We are actively exploring a number of operating models to further understand where we can maximize value across our footprint. Smith News has a unique in-depth knowledge of the dynamics of the early morning final mile delivery market, and we believe we can use this expertise to expand our customer offering in this area. As an example, the engineering parts sector is currently serviced by multiple stock delivery options, including roadside vehicles, lockers, or forward stock locations. We think there is a place for Smith News within this ecosystem, so we are working to understand how best to maximize our market and revenue opportunities in this area and have commenced a small scale trial to better understand that market.

Speaker 2

We are committed to further expanding beyond our traditional operating model. And as highlighted across the presentation, our teams are busy trialing and testing in sectors and areas where we believe we can sensibly evolve our market reach. As highlighted in November, our three year investment program has now commenced, increasing investment to GBP 6,000,000 per annum over the next three years to future proof the business. Part of this investment will help us optimize warehouse operations and enhance our capabilities and efficiencies to support both existing operations and our growth verticals. We've already implemented a new warehouse management system at a key regional hub on budget, on time, and with no disruption or service interruption to our existing customers.

Speaker 2

And we're rolling this out across our other two major hubs during the second half of the year. This additional investment ensures we have the systems and structures in place to maintain our high level of service delivery and remain a trusted partner for our customers across all four verticals. So in summary, our news and magazine vertical continues to underpin the business' good performance, and our growth verticals are all progressing well. I've outlined a number of ongoing trials across the business, which will provide us with more clarity as we seek to further leverage our early morning supply chain expertise expand our offerings. The cost out initiatives continue to scale savings, and our internal investment program will support both our news and magazine activities alongside recycled blue cast grids and Final Mile.

Speaker 2

As we did last year, we shall assess our cash generation alongside our investment needs at the end of the year before deciding on further capital allocation in accordance with our policy. Pleasingly, Smith News remains on track to deliver full year results in line with market expectations. And I look forward to updating you all again in November and very happy to take any questions you may have.

Speaker 1

That's great, John Paul. Thank you very much indeed for updating investors. Ladies and gentlemen, please do continue to submit your questions just using the Q and A tab situated on the right hand corner of your screen. But just while the guys take a few moments to review the questions submitted already, I'd just like to remind you that a recording of this presentation along with a copy of the slides and the published Q and A will be available via your Investor Meet company dashboard. John Paul, you've had a number of questions from investors throughout your presentation.

Speaker 1

So firstly, thank you to everybody for your engagement. If I may just hand back to you, if you could read out the questions where it's appropriate to do so, and I'll pick up from you at the end.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks very much. Start with Wong from l c. Firstly, thank you for the kind comments about the work you and I've done. It's very kind.

Speaker 3

But the question reads, my question is regarding collectibles based on my personal experience. Pokemon trading cards continue to be extremely popular in The UK. They're often sold out, so I struggle to find them in supermarkets or retail stores for my kids. What's his management view on the collectibles segment heading into the second half of the year, John?

Speaker 4

Okay. Yeah. I think it's a good observation. I mean, certainly, we've been pleased with our collectible sales in in h one. The macro trends of Pokemon and and and broader football collections continues to be at the heart of our collectibles proposition, and we're expecting a continuation of those positive trends in h two.

Speaker 4

There will not be a major men's football tournament in the summer, so we went to the benefit of that this year. But from a collectibles perspective, we're expecting a reasonable second half. In terms of their general availability, I mean, that's really an issue for the manufacturers in this area. There is a view, for example, that scarcity can also drive demand. And therefore, I'm not expecting the manufacturers suddenly start to flood the market with Pokemon product in order to maximize sales because scarcity is also an important marketing tool, I believe, for but really probably better for Pokemon or the football trade card providers to answer that in more detail.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Sean. We've got one from Damien c about the publisher revenues where we say we're contracted to 2029. Are there any any minimum revenue levels, etcetera? That's a very

Speaker 4

good question and a simple one to answer. No. There are not any minimum revenues that are guaranteed. What we have secured are the revenues that are available between now and 2029 subject to market performance, And our margin reflects what we both think will happen to sales over that period, and that's part of the contract renegotiation process. So we both take a view on our forecast for sales over the five year period and then margins reflect that.

Speaker 3

Thanks, John. And then, Inder, we got a question about a few pieces of textures looking forward. What operating profit mix do you envisage by the end of this decade between news and magazines, distribution versus new growth areas, I. E, recycling?

Speaker 4

It's a great question and not one I'm going to answer. The truth is, you know, we've said quite clearly that we think there's a hundred and 60,000,000 profit opportunity for us to attack over the years to come, and and we have our own internal targets as to what we think a good result would be. But in in terms of my answer to that question, if we can find even five to 10 percentage points of market share from that hundred and 60,000,000, then that clearly will be very good news for investors. But at this stage in the process, we're not giving external targets for long term guidance as to what we think the split might look like either between growth in new to max or indeed within the growth channels.

Speaker 3

Another one on growth piece here, John. So from Andrew FM, how large is the opportunity in delivering additional categories like books or greetings cards? And are these expected to become material contributors to revenue?

Speaker 4

Yeah. I mean, we do believe that that there's a large opportunity for our business to provide adjacent categories to to the ones we're already providing. We've made good progress in this area both with books, and and now we have the Greeting Scars trial. And there's no reason to believe we can't grow both the number of both the number of categories we distribute and indeed the number of retailers that we apply that distribution to. So, yes, we still see all this as a material and scale opportunity.

Speaker 3

Another one here from Ida. I've got a couple of questions coming up. First one is, do you plan to take any steps to reduce the working capital volatility to have more balance sheet flexibility and possibly higher shareholder distributions? You know, I'll I'll answer that one, John. Our our working capital isn't volatile, actually.

Speaker 3

What I was gonna say is that just the report the reporting dates. It's one of the reasons why, you know, we we look when we try and show what our free cash flow generated over the course of a twelve month period looks like. So you can see the consistent cash flow generation. Our working capital, you know, last year was impacted by the the year end and the fact that the publisher payments that happened at the end of the month came into our reported period. But there really is no real fluctuation in our working capital cycle.

Speaker 3

In fact, our working capital probably has a slight outflow each year driven by the reduction in using MAX as an overall sector, but otherwise, it's it's very, very static. So thanks for the opportunity to answer that question. You know, I've then asked a question around the roof operating margin of the next growth operations outside of news magazines. But we we don't actually give a a an operating margin for our growth activities. But and and the reason that, you know, we're just starting them and clearly we have some investments to make and all also, we we are utilizing the vehicles that we use using MaxFor.

Speaker 3

So there's an allocation of costs that we need to get our heads around there from a operating profit point of view. It's fair to say, though, as John alluded to in the presentation, you know, the the EBITDA margin for recycling, 10 or 15%. You know, what we're seeing internally is above that because we're utilizing, you know, the assets that we already have in place. So our internal margins are better than the the sector margins that they're seeing. So hope that helps you helps you answer that question.

Speaker 3

Just find the next one. So you can find remote and TV. Apparently, it's gonna turn off very soon. So Damian C, the next question is given the strong free cash flow, do you expect to move into average net cash position for the foreseeable future? Great question, Damian, and you will have seen that our average net debt reduced to $1,100,000 in the half, albeit that, you know, the the payment special dividend happened at the February, so that didn't really impact the half too much.

Speaker 3

And we have a capital allocation policy that states we'll run the business at less than one times. You know, it's not our intention just to keep running for cash and keep cash building on the balance sheet. We'd love to, as the capital allocation policy states, invest in our growth initiatives as well as our core business. You know, we'll secure the two times ordinary dividend. And then, you know, if there's any m and a, we'll we'll we'll allocate capital that way.

Speaker 3

And if none of those things require additional capital, we will look to then return, funds to shareholders by any any means, and we'll look to that at the end of the year. There is one here about share buybacks. So we had a preloaded question earlier about buybacks. There's a good opportunity to answer that. This one is just just stating from John b.

Speaker 3

Would you consider a share buyback? And the earlier question, I can't remember, I think it was from Owen. The original one that was submitted was around our cost of capital and and our share price. Is it cheap? Should we be considering share buybacks?

Speaker 3

Now clearly, we have a very, very split view across our our register. Some people like income, some people want us to consider share buybacks. We we changed our capital allocation policy following our refinancing in May. Previously, it stated that all distributions will be by by way of special dividend, but we changed that to be more broad. The board would consider any distributions, and that remains the case.

Speaker 3

The board will consider when they look at this again at the end of the year, what is the right way to return to shareholders, be that buybacks or or special. So we absolutely do look at it. It's a good conversation with the board when when when we do and people, you know, do do look at that. But right now, we felt last year was the right thing to do to reward shareholders with the special. We'll look at those, opportunities we go forward.

Speaker 3

And we see good results. May I ask how big is the impact of National Insurance and minimum wage on the business? The National Insurance, which is sort of the incremental piece, we we did mention in November. So the impact in this year will be obviously only from April is is half a million, which is built into consensus, which you can find on our website. The full year impact of National Insurance is 1,200,000.

Speaker 3

So that's the impact that will, you know, click this year as it's built into consensus and our cost out program helps to offset that, and we'll try and we'll see what happens next year about how much of that incremental 700,000 we can we can manage as we go into FY '26. '1 here from Gavin and l, card factory full year results were out earlier. They are looking for wholesale customers to deliver their products. What is your greeting card delivery trial offer and who with? Your thoughts on the upside.

Speaker 4

Yeah. Absolutely. That. Yeah. So our trial is with Hallmark greetings cards, principally currently in the independent channel.

Speaker 4

So we're focused very much on our independent customers. And and our role is to both sign those customers up, so secure new customers, and then deliver the greetings cards and the display units to them. Right.

Speaker 3

And a question from David s. Why was the dividend not increased marginally to show confidence? Thanks, David. That question allows me to it's up to to answer it. Look.

Speaker 3

We'll we'll look at the full year. I think what we you know, we've got a two time stated dividend cover policy that will be main maintained. We'll look at what that what the profit looks like in the full year before sort of adjusting up or what the final dividend might might look like if we were if we were able to do that. Didn't seem any point at the at the half year. We've got you know, the second half won't be as strong as last year.

Speaker 3

Last year, we had fifth you know, fifty third trading week and and the football time, so it'll be slightly different. Felt that it was sensible just to keep the interview as it was and will reflect the two times cover at a full year basis. Question, John, from you, left income from LC. Can you talk more about the new MD of the recycling business? Yeah.

Speaker 3

And when will the MD be

Speaker 4

on board? Okay. Delighted to do that. So, yes, we're delighted to have secured an MD from the waste management space, proven director with a strong commercial background, and we really want to bring those skills on board to ally them to our strong operational skills. So I think over the last two years, we've demonstrated that operationally, we're more than capable of managing the recycle opportunity.

Speaker 4

But our heritage is not in recycling. We felt, therefore, we needed a leader to come in and bring that ex market expertise, those relationships that are always important to business, bring them to our business and and help us really navigate that opportunity that exists. So we're really pleased to have secured someone of that individual's caliber, and we expect them to be on board in time for the start of the new financial year.

Speaker 3

Thanks, John. And then one from David s. Greetings, Cam. Cards sound the perfect fit, especially as high value, low weight, and density items. Are you talking to other card suppliers, and how are they delivering, their stock clients currently?

Speaker 4

Okay. Yeah. Good question. So I agree with you in terms of fit. Theoretically, it should be a good fit for us for all the reasons you suggest.

Speaker 4

But, no, at this moment in time, we're working exclusively with Allmark on the trial that we're undertaking.

Speaker 3

And the final one for now, unless anyone's got any any others that you can type quickly, is from Ray B. What effect do you expect as a result of the announced changes at WNS?

Speaker 4

It's very early to judge that, isn't it, to be honest. But our initial conversations with WS Smiths have been encouraging in terms of the the desire to retain that state as the as the hub of the community and with news magazines being an important part of that. So what I can tell you is they're an important customer of ours, and we'll work closely with them to try and optimize the opportunity that exists for the new management team.

Speaker 1

That's great. John, Paul, you've taken all the questions from investors. So thank you once again to everybody for your engagement this afternoon. John, I know investor feedback will be particularly important to you and to Paul, and I'll shortly redirect those on the call to provide you with their thoughts and their expectations. But before doing so, if I may just come back to you for a couple of closing comments.

Speaker 4

Yep. Thank you. So just four things I'd like to to finish by saying, really. I mean, I think we're pleased with where we find ourselves at the h one mark. It's good to have a set of financials that are once again on plan.

Speaker 4

We're pleased about that. I think you can see we're making progress on our growth strategy across every vertical, which is important. We've also implemented the first of our future tech implementations. So the warehouse management system has gone in on time, on budget without disruption. So that's great.

Speaker 4

And overall, we're on plan to make sure that we are delivering our full year expectations.

Speaker 3

So I

Speaker 4

given the macro environment, we're pleased with where we find ourselves.

Speaker 1

That's great. Paul, John, thank you very much indeed for updating investors. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as we'll now automatically redirect you for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order that the company can better understand your views and expectations. This may take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of Smiths News plc, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and wish you all a good rest of your day.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Powered by Quartr

Key Takeaways

  • Smiths News delivered solid H1 results with only a 0.6% revenue decline versus a –3% to –5% guidance, a 3.2% increase in operating profit, 10% EPS growth to 5.4p, strong free cash flow of £13.3m, and average net debt reduced to £1.1m, supporting a maintained 1.75p interim dividend.
  • Core revenue stability underpinned by 91% of publisher contracts secured to 2029, providing visibility for early-morning supply chain expansion and resilience against market headwinds.
  • Progress in the three growth verticals included a 5% rise in recycling routes with a new MD appointed, trials for non-magazine recycling customers, books and Hallmark greeting cards distribution in new categories, and engineering parts final-mile delivery pilots.
  • A £6m per annum investment programme to modernize warehousing and logistics has commenced with a new warehouse management system implemented on time and budget, enabling capacity for growth and targeted cost savings.
  • Ongoing cost efficiency measures delivered £3m of gross improvements in H1 and remain on track for circa £5m annual savings, helping to offset wage inflation and National Insurance uplifts.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Smiths News H1 2025
00:00 / 00:00