EQT Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 23, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Second quarter production reached the high end of guidance with robust well productivity and ahead-of-schedule compression programs, resulting in $240 million of free cash flow even after $134 million of litigation expenses (would have been $375 million net of legal costs).
  • Positive Sentiment: On July 1 the company closed the Olympus Energy acquisition—adding a vertically integrated contiguous 90,000 net acre position with ~500 MMcf per day of production and over a decade of core Marcellus inventory.
  • Positive Sentiment: Major midstream projects progressed as planned, including the MVP Boost open season to add 180,000 HP of compression (2.0→2.5 Bcf/d) and anticipation of an October FERC environmental assessment for the 550 MMcf/d MVP Southgate expansion, both targeting service by 2028–2029.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company secured definitive supply agreements for near-term growth in power demand—including the Shippingport (800 MMcf/d), Homer City (665 MMcf/d) and a new West Virginia plant (100 MMcf/d)—contributing to nearly 3 Bcf per day of new Appalachian gas demand and underpinning a ~$1 billion low-risk growth pipeline.
  • Positive Sentiment: Balance sheet deleveraging remained on track as net debt fell to $7.8 billion (down $350 million QoQ), with targets of $7.5 billion by year‐end 2025 and a medium-term maximum of $5 billion, paving the way for future countercyclical buybacks and growth reinvestment.
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Earnings Conference Call
EQT Q2 2025
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Operator

Thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome everyone to AQT Q2 twenty twenty five Quarterly Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to Cameron Horwitz, Managing Director, Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead.

Cameron Horwitz
Cameron Horwitz
MD, IR & Strategy at EQT Corp

Good morning, and thank you for joining our second quarter twenty twenty five earnings results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer and Jeremy Knoeb, Chief Financial Officer. In a moment, Toby and Jeremy will present their prepared remarks with a question and answer session to follow. An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion. A replay of today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening.

Cameron Horwitz
Cameron Horwitz
MD, IR & Strategy at EQT Corp

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward looking statements because of factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation, the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10 ks and Form 10 Q and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward looking statements. Today's call also contains certain non GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Thanks, Kim, and good morning, everyone. Second quarter results continue to showcase strong momentum at EQT. Production was at the high end of guidance, benefiting from robust well productivity and outperformance from compression projects. Year to date, our compression program is ahead of schedule, below budget and driving production uplift well above expectations, showcasing continued synergy capture from the Equitrans acquisition. Capital spending came in approximately $50,000,000 below the low end of guidance driven by midstream spending optimization, continued improvements and completion efficiency and lower well costs.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Our teams set a new EQT record for completed footage per day during the quarter and we believe there is still significant room for additional improvement. This strong performance resulted in approximately two forty million dollars of Q2 free cash flow attributable to EQT despite $134,000,000 of net expense incurred relating to a litigation settlement that resolves outstanding securities class action litigation. We view this settlement as a positive step forward for EQT as it resolves remaining meaningful legacy liabilities inherited by current management. Without this legal expense, second quarter free cash flow attributable to EQT would have totaled approximately $375,000,000 materially exceeding expectations. To put into perspective, cumulative free cash flow generation totaled nearly $2,000,000,000 over the past three quarters despite natural gas prices averaging just $3.3 per million Btu over this period, highlighting the differentiated earnings power of EQT's low cost platform.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Shifting gears, we closed on our acquisition of Olympus Energy on July 1, funding the deal with $475,000,000 of cash on hand plus the issuance of approximately 25,200,000.0 shares after purchase price adjustments. Recall the assets comprise a vertically integrated contiguous 90,000 net acre position offsetting EQT's acreage in Southwest Appalachia with 500,000,000 cubic feet per day of net production and over a decade of core Marcellus inventory along with significant upside optionality from the D. Budaica. The teams are off to a fast start integrating the assets and we expect to have the bulk of operational integration items complete within the next thirty days. We also see the opportunity to organically bolt on low cost acreage around the Olympus assets, which could materially expand inventory duration in this area.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Turning to strategic growth opportunities. As discussed over the past several quarters, we have cultivated a significant pipeline of low risk high return projects that should drive sustainable growth for our Midstream and Upstream businesses in the years ahead. Several of these projects recently crossed significant milestones thus derisking the path to value creation. First, we are concluding the open season of our MVP Boost project, which is set to add 180,000 horsepower of compression to the MVP mainline and increase capacity from two to 2.5 Bcf per day. This project will provide additional takeaway from Appalachia into Virginia to serve the Southeast markets, unleashing reliable, low cost, low emissions natural gas into a region that is seeing significant demand growth.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

As a result of strong project momentum, we have elected to jumpstart long lead time orders this year in order to derisk the MVP boost construction timeline. We are also continuing to advance the MVP Southgate project and expect to receive the FERC environmental assessment in October. MVP Southgate will provide five fifty million cubic feet per day of capacity from MVP Mainline into the Carolinas serving anchor customers Duke Energy and the public service company of North Carolina. This project will significantly enhance the reliability of natural gas delivery into this key growth market reducing energy costs for consumers and support the replacement of coal. MVP Southgate and MVP Boost are projected to begin service in 2028 and in 2029 respectively following the anticipated commencement of the Transco Southeast supply expansion.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Additionally, we are working to finalize our twenty year definitive agreement with the Frontier Group of companies to provide long term natural gas supply for the Shippingport Industrial Park project Northwest Of Pittsburgh. The project will convert a retired coal power plant into a large scale 3.6 gigawatt natural gas power generation facility with peak natural gas consumption of approximately 800,000,000 cubic feet per day. The project has secured a partner to build a co located data center facility to support AI infrastructure and contemplate several phases of development beginning in 2027 and ramping through 2028, providing significant upstream growth optionality for EQT to meet increasing demand. We are also working to finalize our twenty year definitive agreement with Homer City redevelopment to build midstream pipeline infrastructure and be the project's exclusive supplier of natural gas. Once completed, Palmer City will be the largest natural gas power plant ever built in North America with an existing grid interconnection for added reliability to support AI data center loads across its 3,200 acre campus.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

The facility will consist of seven new gas turbines powered by six sixty five million cubic feet per day of EQT's low emissions natural gas. We plan to leverage our newly acquired Olympus assets to supply the facility as it ramps up before reaching peak capacity in late twenty twenty eight. Additionally, we signed an agreement to build midstream infrastructure serving a new six ten megawatt combined cycle natural gas power plant in West Virginia with gas demand of approximately 100,000,000 cubic feet per day that will serve the PJM market. This project is poised to be the state's first large scale gas fired power plant and is being developed by a global investment grade power company in partnership with a marquee private equity sponsor. In service for the project is expected in 2028 and the commercial structure includes a ten year term with re contracting optionality.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

We also secured a new gathering contract with a large private producer to expand capacity on our Saturn pipeline system in West Virginia. This project is expected to be in service in 2027 with a ten year initial term and is backed by attractive minimum volume commitments. This opportunity highlights success with our strategic initiative to grow Equitrans' third party business, which further lowers EQT's free cash flow breakeven by driving stable fee based revenue growth. Collectively, these projects represent a pipeline of nearly $1,000,000,000 of organic investment opportunity with premium low risk supply agreements, which we estimate will generate an aggregate free cash flow yield of approximately 25% once fully online. This is particularly noteworthy given the relatively low risk annuity like cash flow streams from the infrastructure components of these projects, which are underpinned by the deepest highest quality natural gas resource in The United States.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Further, this free cash flow yield is prior to any potential benefits from local basis improvement in the upstream growth optionality created by these projects. The shipping port and Homer City facilities, the West Virginia power plant, the increase in MVP utilization plus the MVP boost expansion represent new Appalachian gas demand of nearly three Bcf per day. This demand will be served in large part by EQT volumes flowing predominantly through EQT infrastructure underscoring the differentiated growth opportunity for EQT. Through our integrated platform, we are demonstrating what responsible, sustainable growth looks like for oil and gas companies. This means partnering with end users to enable new demand then meeting that demand with supply backed by firm contracts rather than simply chasing commodity price signals.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

This tremendous opportunity is unique to EQT enabled by the past five years of strategic work transforming our business and highlights what is possible when you have the combination of a low cost structure, scale, integrated high quality infrastructure, a multi decade core inventory and investment grade credit ratings. As we highlighted last quarter, the next leg of our corporate strategy is built on the dual pillars of reducing cash flow risk and creating pathways for sustainable cash flow growth. And these projects represent a tangible step forward in executing that strategy. I also want to give a special thank you to our leadership in the state of Pennsylvania, Senator McCormick and Governor Shapiro as well as the administration in Washington for taking bold steps to unlock the vast economic potential of the region and shining a spotlight on the massive opportunity for technology and AI to prosper in the Pittsburgh area. As we have demonstrated EQT is ready to do its part and deliver affordable, reliable and low carbon energy to power this growth.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Thanks, Toby. Our strong second quarter results and free cash flow generation drove continued deleveraging of our balance sheet. We exited the quarter with $7,800,000,000 of net debt, down approximately $350,000,000 compared to Q1 and marking nearly $6,000,000,000 of debt reduction over the past three quarters. The recent closing of the Olympus transaction accelerates our deleveraging plan and enhances our debt to free cash flow metrics. Pro form a the transaction, we remain on track to achieve our year end 2025 net debt target of $7,500,000,000 Over the medium to long term, we plan to operate with a maximum of $5,000,000,000 of net debt, which is roughly three times free cash flow before strategic growth CapEx at a $2.75 natural gas price.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

As a result, we will continue to focus on debt pay down even after achieving this near term $7,500,000,000 target. In higher parts of the commodity cycle, we plan to accumulate cash on the balance sheet and drive net debt well below $5,000,000,000 creating significant flexibility for countercyclical buybacks and to build capacity for high confidence reinvestment and growth even during the low parts of the commodity cycle. Turning to our recently announced pipeline of growth projects, we expect these projects to create a collective growth CapEx opportunity of approximately $1,000,000,000 over the next several years. And we expect to begin spending capital on associated infrastructure in 2026 with investments spaced out over a multi year period. We structured the two data center projects as index plus style deals on fixed volume commitments similar to our existing contracts with the Southeastern Utilities.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

These contracts give us confidence in leaning into moderate midstream and upstream growth due to the lower risk nature of these agreements. Similarly, the midstream growth projects are all backed by fixed fee contracts and minimum volume commitments providing low risk, high return earnings growth pathways for EQT. While we cannot disclose specific contract terms or end customers before the impact of upstream volume growth or basis tightening, we expect these projects to add approximately $250,000,000 of recurring free cash flow by 2029. Initially, we will reallocate volumes to fill this new demand followed by steady mid single digit multiyear growth. We have the capacity to grow production by at least two Bcf per day to backfill these volumes, which means we've set the stage to responsibly grow the business by at least 30% over the coming years.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

These sustainable growth opportunities distinguish EQT among industry peers, while also providing unmatched risk adjusted exposure to natural gas prices. Furthermore, we are as confident as ever that Appalachian basis should structurally tighten through the end of the decade and we index these supply deals to local pricing points to benefit from this uplift relative to Henry Hub in addition to the contractual premium. Turning to capital allocation, as we achieve our deleveraging goals and organically grow the business, we will measure our free cash flow available to invest after the deduction of maintenance CapEx only. Of that remaining bucket of free cash flow, we plan to allocate first dollars toward high return, low risk, sustainable growth projects like the ones discussed today. These large projects follow on the heels of the strategic growth investments in water infrastructure and compression that we have made over the past two years and are now the key drivers of the operating efficiency gains and outperformance you have become accustomed to seeing in our quarterly results.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

We expect this high return reinvestment to drive sustainable earnings growth, which should enable us to confidently grow our base dividend and ensure it is bulletproof at all parts of the commodity cycle. Beyond organic growth and our base dividend, we plan to use excess free cash flow opportunistically to further reduce debt, patiently build up cash or opportunistically buy back a significant amount of shares during a market down cycle. Turning to hedging, we tactically added a modest amount of hedges for the upcoming winter to take advantage of call SKU in the options market. We hedged 10% with costless collars for December through February an average price floor just above $4 per MMBtu and an average ceiling price around $7 per MMBtu. Note our updated hedge table also includes hedges that were innovated with the Olympus acquisition covering approximately 5% of our production through Q1 twenty twenty seven.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

We will continue to patiently look for hedging opportunities like this and position EQT to realize higher than average gas prices through the cycle. Turning to natural gas macro, while there are near term headwinds primarily due to production growth, we continue to hold a structurally bullish view for prices as we look out to 2026 and 2027. First, on the supply side, there is growing evidence that associated gas growth is slowing. The oil directed rig count has declined by approximately 50 rigs or roughly 11% since April. While Brent and WTI pricing has rebounded off their April and May lows, we believe global oil markets still lean towards oversupply, particularly given OPEC's strategy to rapidly add back barrels and defend market share.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

That backdrop suggests U. S. Oil activity will remain subdued into next year as operators stay disciplined and focused on shareholder returns. Critically, this curbs a major source of incremental gas supply. At the same time, the demand picture continues to strengthen as we expect a meaningful step up in LNG exports by Q4 with Plaquemines LNG reaching full rate and Golden Pass LNG beginning operations.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

This increase is on top of the 2.5 Bcf per day of LNG demand growth we've seen since the 2025 and should quickly tighten balances, especially as U. S. Dry gas supply struggles to keep pace. Based on recent and upcoming FIDs, U. S.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Nameplate LNG capacity should grow to north of 30 Bcf per day by 2,030, which we believe will drive structurally higher U. S. Pricing next decade. At the same time, Qatar recently delayed the in service of their new LNG capacity from early to mid-twenty twenty six further increasing our bullish near term outlook. Due to surging gas production, the current market is loose with storage levels 6% above normal, but this environment is self correcting.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Lower pricing in the near term should disincentivize dry gas producers who are chasing prices by increasing activity, especially in the marginal Haynesville play where well productivity is beginning to degrade, a clear sign of inventory exhaustion. Shifting to guidance, we have issued an updated outlook pro form a the Olympus transaction. Our updated 2025 production guidance range is 2,300 to 2,400 Bcfe, which includes approximately 100 Bcfe of production contribution from Olympus in the second half of the year. We are lowering our operating expense guidance range by approximately $06 per Mcfe, driven by accretion from the Olympus transaction and continued base business outperformance while keeping price differential guidance unchanged. As you recall, last quarter we reduced our full year capital guidance as tangible evidence of efficiency gain.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Despite the acquisition of Olympus on July 1 and the associated $100,000,000 of incremental second half spending, we are maintaining our full year capital guidance range of $2,300,000,000 to $2,450,000,000 This is once again a tangible representation of continued efficiency gains within our base business, which without Olympus would have driven our capital spending well below the low end of guidance. All told, production is up, operating costs are down and capital efficiency continues to improve. And finally, we have modestly increased capital contributions to equity method investments, reflecting our decision to preorder the compression horsepower for MVP Boost due to the growing backlog for this equipment. Note, this is not an increase in CapEx, but simply a decision to pull forward an existing expenditure from 2026 into 2025. And with that, I will turn the call back over to Toby for some concluding remarks.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Thanks, Jeremy. To conclude, we posted another stellar quarter of both operational and financial results with the outlook continuing to improve. Our pipeline of differentiated strategic growth projects that we discussed today places EQT in a peerless position within the industry and underscores the differentiated investment opportunities emerging from our integrated platform. We have unlocked sustainable growth while also increasing free cash flow durability, the combination of which we expect to drive cash flow growth and further valuation multiple expansion for shareholders. The momentum at EQT has never been stronger and the sense of purpose and excitement inside the company has never been greater.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

With that, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. And your first question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Doug, please go ahead.

Doug Leggate
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Thank you. Good morning, guys. I got to say I love Jeremy's. We will continue to build cash. Think you know our views on that.

Doug Leggate
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

So happy to hear that message continually delivered. But my question is whether you can do that while spending on the tremendous growth setup that you've laid out and obviously accelerated in the last couple of months of the announcements. So I wonder if you can address the key question perhaps for everybody this morning, which is what's the CapEx cadence to get to that $250,000,000 of free cash flow growth by 2029? Maybe Jeremy you could also address your non top build multiple as to whether you're hinting at monetization at some point?

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yes, Doug, great question. And I think what's really important and what we really want to reiterate is that we have the ability to generate robust free cash flow, delever and fuel this sustainable growth opportunities. And when we're talking about the $1,000,000,000 of CapEx on the really related to the midstream side of things, that's going to be back weighted closer towards 28%. So we'll see a little bit that show up in '26, but then it will start showing up closer to '27, '28. And I think the other point that's really important on the upstream side of things, keep in mind, we've got two Bcf a day that's already producing local.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

We have the opportunity to reallocate those volumes to feed these facilities. That is going to give us a tremendous amount of flexibility to be very thoughtful with our upstream production growth. And I think opportunities both of are going to allow us to continue to make sure that we're allocating capital where we think is best, continue to pay down deleveraging but also being able to capture these exciting sustainable growth opportunities.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Doug, when you think about the cadence of when the spending shows up that Toby just outlined relative to when we have a lot of cash coming in the door, I think if you look at where we are at by the end of next year since a lot of the spending is really picking up in 2027, 2028, I think our debt's going to get so low at that point that it really lines up really nicely where there's not a lot more debt to repay at all, certainly on a net basis. And it's a natural point where we can start shifting dollars towards these really high return opportunities. And I'd also note too that at that point in time, you know, when we look at our forecast, it it kind of where strip is in the in the high threes. I mean, we're generating north of $3,000,000,000 a year. And so you get to a level where our net debt can be approaching zero and there's still a lot of dollars left over.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So I think we have opportunity both ways and ton of flexibility no matter how the macro plays out.

Doug Leggate
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

That's very clear. Guys, my follow-up is a quick one. It's really a nod to Toby's question. What would it take for you to add production as opposed to reallocate production? I guess it's a macro question into that two Bcf a day you lay out.

Doug Leggate
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Because obviously the potential uplift and associated free cash flow call it a couple of dollar margin could be enormous. But what would it take for you to actually grow production? I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yes. So we're not going be blind to what the market is showing there. So we will be thoughtful on the pricing that we're seeing there. And that will factor into our decisions on how I'd say how fast we move from reallocating towards growing the production. But Doug, you mentioned this opportunity for us.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Just to highlight this growth opportunity and what this means in an end state scenario, let's just use Bcf a day of growth. That will translate to call it, three sixty Bcf of increased production. At end state, looking at our cost structure about $2 take a $4 Henry Hub price, you're talking about $720,000,000 of free cash flow. Throw an 8% yield on top of that free cash flow yield, that's $9,000,000,000 of value, about $15 a share. So just a Bcf a day is basically a 25% upside to share price now.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

So it's attractive, but we're going to continue to be disciplined and thoughtful about this. And like I said, we've got the volumes that we have the flexibility to make the right decisions.

Doug Leggate
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Great. Thanks guys. Appreciate the answers.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley. Devin, please go ahead.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Hey, good morning. Thanks for

Devin Mcdermott
Devin Mcdermott
MD - Research at Morgan Stanley

taking my questions. So I wanted to come back to the capital side, but talk a bit more just about the base business. If you look at this year's results so far, it's the second quarter in a row of CapEx reductions and volumes at the high end of guidance, even with some curtailments in the quarter. So I was wondering if could talk a little bit more about the evolution of capital on that side over the next few years. You have the roll off of compression spending.

Devin Mcdermott
Devin Mcdermott
MD - Research at Morgan Stanley

You have the reduction in D and C spending that comes along with the synergy targets. So how much room does that give you relative to current capital budget then layer in some of the strategic growth later in the decade, if that question makes sense? Just kind of putting all the pieces together on the total capital budget.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yeah. It's a good question, Devin. I think as we move into twenty twenty six twenty twenty seven, you're gonna see the maintenance piece of our spin come down, but you will see the growth, piece of it go up. That is by design. That's what we've been intentionally driving towards for a couple of years.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

We're still trying to add up and determine exactly what's in 2026 versus 2027 as that ramp increases. So I'm not going to give out any specific numbers today. But I would say between the projects that we outlined on slide nine of our investor deck, Our goal as a team is to try to build those opportunities to create and accelerate value. But but I think, you know, it's it's well noted that the efficiencies in the underlying base business are driving down the maintenance piece of that capital spend, which is what, you know, our our goal is to have everybody be able to see very clearly separate from the value creating growth wedge that's added on top of that.

Devin Mcdermott
Devin Mcdermott
MD - Research at Morgan Stanley

Yep. Okay. Makes a lot of sense. And then maybe just kind of step back. You had talked about earlier in the year maybe announcing one power deal in 2025, and here we have multiple strategic growth projects already executed by the middle of the year across both upstream and midstream.

Devin Mcdermott
Devin Mcdermott
MD - Research at Morgan Stanley

So maybe you could just talk a little bit about the opportunity set as it sits today. Have you executed on your targets at this point? Is there still more room to run? How are you thinking about the longer term evolution of strategic growth and the opportunity set for in basin demand?

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yes. Devin, when you look back at some of the, I guess, guidance we provided in prior earnings calls, we said probably seeing of the six Bcf seven a day of in basin demand, two Bcf a day of that was data center driven. And when you step back, you think EQT maybe will capture a Bcf a day of that six to seven of in basin demand. And here we are sitting with over 1.5 Bcf a day of power demand opportunities that have been captured and brought in here for EQT. So really two things here, either we've significantly underestimated the size of this opportunity or we are over executing on our ability to capture these opportunities.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

One thing's for sure, there's this is a good first step. We still see other opportunities in the pipeline. And one of the other things that I think is important to note is the cluster effect of these AI data centers and these ecosystems, I think, will only continue to build on themselves. So as momentum grows in our operational footprint, we think the opportunity could get larger.

Devin Mcdermott
Devin Mcdermott
MD - Research at Morgan Stanley

Understood. Well, congrats on the good progress so far. Thanks guys.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Arun, please go ahead.

Arun Jayaram
Research Analyst at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Yes. Good morning, My first question is appreciate the detail on the shipping port and Homer City deals that you're pursuing. You talked about a multi phase development in 2027 and 2028. I was wondering if you had thoughts on the timeline to reach the full 800Ms on the shipping port facility and six sixty five in Homer City. What do you expect as a timeline to reach those volume commitments?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yes. Good question. I think for both of them, we think about it as year end 2028. There will be a ramp phase. Homer City has, those turbines being delivered beginning next year.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So I think you could see that one pick up a lot sooner and we can, through our Olympus assets, start to bring some volumes to that facility a lot sooner than we otherwise would be. So flexing the operational capabilities after that acquisition. But I think to really be able to reach full rate, the way we model it is really year end 2028, which just as a reminder, Arun, when you step back and think about what that means, that's also the same year that the Transco expansion comes online, MVP Boost, Southgate, it's all happening right in that same period of time. So that's the period too going back to, I think, Doug's questions on the timing of growth that we're really looking at. We're to bring growth into the market.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

That's when the market is really going to need it. We have flexibility because of the reallocation, but you're going to see a very quickly tightening market in 2028 and 2029 on the back of all this demand coming online in a very short period, kind of like you are with LNG right now.

Arun Jayaram
Research Analyst at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Great. And my follow-up, how do you see yesterday's PGM auction clear at the price cap? How do you see this impacting gas power gen development and gas demand overall given indications of continued power market tightening?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Look, think it's a great demonstration of the market working to solve the problem. I mean, there are certain inefficiencies in PJM that need to get worked out. We're certainly not advocates of prices being pushed so high that it it's it's not good for for society and the economy overall. And that's what we're really able to solve through our integrated platform is providing that the best solution for customers at the cheapest cost. But look, there's power that's needed and the power is going to get built and you're seeing, generation willing to, be built but at a higher price and that's what's happening through those auctions.

Arun Jayaram
Research Analyst at JP Morgan Chase & Co

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Neil, please go ahead.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head - Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Yes. Thanks so much. Congrats again on these data center related transactions. And just would love your perspective on how you're pricing it. It sounds like you're tying it to M2 plus and so implicit in that is a view that the differentials should be tightening up over time.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head - Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

So can you just talk about how much flexibility was there to price it to hub versus pricing it locally? If there was that flexibility, why did you choose local pricing? Just your perspective on the pricing? And then I have a follow-up on near term macro.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yes. Great question. So we're trying to obviously get the most value out of this we can, but also provide an anchor liquid pricing point for customers so they can financially hedge if they want to take some of the volatility out. Know, based like I said in the prior comments, we are very bullish Appalachian pricing actually relative to Henry Hub. I know it's not the consensus view right now, but when you see all this demand show up in the face of probably half of of the players in Appalachia running real thin on inventory come into the decade, it does set up for a really interesting sort of paradigm shift where I think that basis tightens a lot.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So we intentionally are are structuring them linked to that, you know, for multiple reasons. I think it's best for the customer. I I actually think it's best for EQT at the same time. You know, look, in in time, in theory, you could link it to Henry Hub, but it it just makes it a little more complicated when it comes to actually procuring supply, giving EQT the flexibility to find the the best molecule as a solution. You know, as an example, if we're marketing gas and we wanna buy gas out of one of the more liquid pools, because that's a cheaper solution, It's a lot easier to do that when pricing is already indexed to that point.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

You don't run any issues of of having effectively like a dirty hedge. So it allows us to, again, give the best solution for the customers, still have all the flexibility and have the most upside, I think, from a production standpoint.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head - Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

That's helpful, Jeremy. And then the follow-up is just on the near term macro. Maybe just us, but we've been surprised by some of the scrapes that have come in with production at $107 probably north of a B higher than what we would anticipated in the near term. Have you guys been surprised by that? Has that affected the way you think about how we exit October and set up for the winter?

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head - Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

And just in general as you think about, near term producer discipline, are we seeing some breakdown?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I think the short answer is yes. I think we we I think our view of Appalachia specifically is from this point towards the end of the year, you're flat to down. It looks like from what the data we see, the Permian is also relatively in check. You're not seeing any sort of, like, race to add production growth. It's really the Haynesville and its other basins.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

And, again, it's it's more of what we've seen in the past. It's it's producers chasing price signals. And look, this morning, you're seeing gas approaching $3. Right? I I I just I think if we add Haynesville assets, we would be really hard pressed as to why there's justification to add activity right now.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

You know, I think there was a view for the past two years that 2025 was gonna this year that that a lot of these producers could could exit and sell their businesses. And, you know, lo and behold, they do the same thing again. They push pricing down to a level where if you're in the Haynesville, you're not getting your money back, where well productivity is today at current well costs. And so, it's just another example of the value destruction that comes out of unsustainably chasing prices. And again, as as we talk about what does it take for EQT to grow, it's it's lining up our supply with known demand through our infrastructure through contracts.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

It's a very it's a very different, much more disciplined way that we look at it. But, again, it's you know, if if if if we see this continued, you know, surge of production, there's certainly downside to pricing in the years ahead. We certainly hope that doesn't happen. It's not something we control. But, you know, the good thing about being the lowest cost producer in the position EQT is in today is we we make a bunch of money either way.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Even at $3 gas, we can make a bunch of money. And if gas goes up, we'll make a bunch of money too because we can be unhedged. So it fits perfectly into how we've sculpted the business. But, you know, again, short answer is we do think production is too high. We've been surprised to the upside and certainly hope it doesn't continue surging.

Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
Head - Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Yes. Thanks, Jeremy. We'll be watching.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Kalle Akamene with Bank of America. Kalle, please go ahead.

Kalei Akamine
Kalei Akamine
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. The growth option here appears to be surprisingly underappreciated. You've got sufficient in basin molecules, and that should allow you to divert a lot of its new customers as you get your growth ramp underway. And I appreciate that it's early, but are there any guardrails that you can kind of offer around CapEx?

Kalei Akamine
Kalei Akamine
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

How you plan to shape that maybe over how many years that could be spread over?

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yes. As far as guardrails are concerned, I think as Jeremy mentioned in the opening remarks, I mean, we could talk about thinking low single digit growth toward to to meet the these volumes. And, you know, I think just the other thing I just mentioned on these these opportunities that we've been able to capture and one of the things that's special about EQT that's worth highlighting because this is what's ultimately going to position us to continue this momentum and continue to capture these really attractive opportunities for our shareholders is just our scale, our investment grade balance sheet, are purely the inventory durable cost structure and the scale part knowing that we have these volumes flowing above ground, giving us the flexibility to enter these contracts. I mean, think all these things really position you well and allow us to scope our CapEx profile so that we can still show robust free cash flow while also meeting a pretty exciting sustainable growth profile.

Kalei Akamine
Kalei Akamine
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. Thanks, Tobey. I want to come back to the capital efficiency trend. It's been very clear over the last several quarters. Can you kind of offer a view on where leading edge D and C capital per lateral foot metrics are compared to maybe 24?

Kalei Akamine
Kalei Akamine
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

And then offer a view on how much runway is remaining.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yeah. So I mean, on slide on our record setting completion efficiency slide, I mean, we throw out the well cost from '24 to sort of where we've seen in the first half of twenty five. I think we'd like to continue to see single digit improvements in well cost. So it's really good to see these optimizations that take place. We're halfway through our compression program, so we'll continue to see benefits and uplift from that.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Those are we're seeing twice the uplift that we were budgeting for. So there's a lot of opportunities that these teams continue to find. We're stepping into the Olympus integration now, so we're hoping to continue to find ways to optimize there. And then you're looking at what we're doing now leveraging these assets to also create commercial opportunities with these supply agreements. So I mean there's a lot of opportunities for us continue to evolve the business, not just focused on the well cost improvements.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yes. I would also add to that. It's just important as we talked about increasing some of our strategic spend. A lot of what we've been able to achieve on the well cost side, specifically in completions, is also enabled by investments we've made in infrastructure, spending money to make money over the past two years. That's why we want to keep doing that.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

That's really the the undercurrent of why we keep beating quarterly results is just seeing that that come to fruition. That's why we're so excited about that. The rate of return on those investments is just so high. So that I think that momentum continues, as illustrated on that slide Toby referenced.

Kalei Akamine
Kalei Akamine
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. I appreciate it guys. Good stuff.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Thanks.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS. Josh, please go ahead.

Josh Silverstein
Josh Silverstein
Managing Director at UBS Group

Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. Just had a question on the two Bcf a of potential growth here. How do you set yourself up to deliver mid single digit growth? Is there enough infrastructure in place already to support this or the new projects that are capable of delivering that?

Josh Silverstein
Josh Silverstein
Managing Director at UBS Group

And then do you build up any sort of backlog over the next few years to then have that as the storage to be able to deliver that when the demand is there? Thanks.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yes, Josh. So when we're looking at supplying these specific demand opportunities, we will be building out new midstream infrastructure, connect them to existing gas networks. A lot of those will be connected that EQT has our volumes connected there. So our commercial footprint is going allow us to move gas around. We'll be going through optimization exercise on what exactly is the best way for us to fill the supply to get to these new interconnects.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

But this is one of the reasons why people are selecting this region to build their data centers is because they're building on top of a lot of gas infrastructure and EQT will close that last mile and then be in a position to optimize.

Josh Silverstein
Josh Silverstein
Managing Director at UBS Group

Got it. And then obviously, there's a lot of focus on the power side, but I wanted to see if you can now give us an updated view on the LNG contracting plans. Based on current supply levels, it's about 20% plus of your current supply. Do you want to have 10% or so to the LNG market? Do the LNG markets now look less attractive to you because of what you've been signing in the power market? So any update there would be great.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think so our long term goal in the LNG markets is actually to do very similarly what we're doing on the power and data center side right now, which is link up supply directly to an end user, of that gas. That's why we're trying to contract the way we are. Long term, we still want to have 5% to 10% at least of volume.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I think as our credit ratings continue to rise, I think our appetite for leaning into more of that will also rise. I think that's more of 2030 and beyond opportunity where that LNG market is going to really be tight, and we can make a lot of money there. We're actually in discussions with a number of facilities right now. Those discussions have actually improved and ticked up recently. So we're actually really excited about that opportunity.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

And think what we're proving we can do domestically with our platform, is, in essence, exactly what we plan to do internationally. We've been having conversations with with some international customers that have really underscored, I think, how great that opportunity is. But, again, we just wanna do it the right way. Those are long term contracts. It can be very costly, if not structured the right way.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

But I think, you know, beyond what we do domestically, that that is a huge opportunity for us. And for any company who has a platform like we do, that's built to do deals like this directly within customers.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Betty Jiang with Barclays. Betty, please go ahead.

Betty Jiang
Betty Jiang
Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays

Thank you. Good morning. I would love to dive into the M2 dynamics a bit more since you guys are really doubling down on a bullish view there. Basically, how big is the M2 and local market in that region? It's on what you guys are saying, it's 1.5 Bcf per day of demand that we could see from the power deals.

Betty Jiang
Betty Jiang
Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays

MEPX and then the Transco expansion, that could add another one Bcf per day. Like how material is that demand versus the market size? How easily is it for other producers to deliver volume to that market? So really just trying to get a better sense on the bull case scenario on where that M2 price could go.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yeah. It's a great question. It obviously depends seasonally, but I'd say if you look at the two of the biggest markets being that M2 market along TETCO and then the Dominion market called EGTS now, we typically look at those as being five to seven Bcf a day each, again, depending on the season. I think each of these opportunities as they emerge, are going to create very large demand sinks and very specific, points. And so how we go through the process of marketing gas volumes and supplying those, whether it's EQT volume, buying other third party volume, or reallocating, depending on where we are in that growth ramp, it it's going to evolve.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

We're working through the most efficient plan to do that right now. So I think there's some element of basis tightening, but that is really taking volume, for example, that we might sell from Olympus into EGTS, take it 20 miles down EGTS and pull it into Homer City as an example. So it really is it really is supply matching. If you look at other projects like Mountain Valley, that that that plant, or sorry, that pipeline is served on the tailgate of the Mobley plant, and we deliver a lot of gas there through Hammerhead and OBCX and other pipelines. That is predominantly all EQT gas.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So I think for anyone who is buying gas on MVP, you're still buying EQT gas and interfacing with EQT at Mobley. So I think there's a there's a tremendous amount of upstream opportunity. But but to the point Toby made in his opening remarks, this is predominantly EQT infrastructure, whether it's existing or new build and in a core EQT operating area, meaning it's EQT volume. So I think there's a broader view that it's it yes. It's it's an opportunity for everybody in Appalachia.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I think the way we see the volumes actually flowing is it's really more of an EQT opportunity, which is why we're talking about filling it with growth and reallocating. We have a little over two Bcf a day today that we can reallocate. So in theory, we don't have to grow at all if we don't want to. But I I think in the long term, the most value accretive thing for shareholders is us to tailor in moderate responsible growth to backfill as we reallocate that. So I think there's tailwinds on both sides, but it's not going to be evenly distributed across producers from the way we see volumes flowing.

Betty Jiang
Betty Jiang
Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays

Thank you. That's really interesting color. So along that line, when you think about your pricing signal, are you looking at M2 specifically that you need to see maybe M2 getting to narrow its discount to, I don't know, 50¢ or, something better than where it is now for you to see that production risk, like backfilling that volume response?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I think it's a combination of both hub and, m two in EGTS. Look, if you had a weak period in Henry Hub but also tighter basis, we might still say the cheaper thing to do is just reallocate volumes as opposed to grow into it. We could build DUCs if we wanted to just to, prepare for a period where, pricing then rebounded. But, you know, again, the beauty of our scale and infrastructure platform is we can be flexible. So, answer is it kinda depends.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

It's it's hard for us to concretely commit to anything this early out because this is something that's really three to five years from now. But the point is that we continue making is we have a ton of flexibility.

Betty Jiang
Betty Jiang
Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays

Okay. Thanks for that color.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Philip Jungberg with BMO Capital Markets. Philip, please go ahead.

Phillip Jungwirth
Phillip Jungwirth
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

On the West Virginia power project where you're providing midstream infrastructure, is there any reason to think you wouldn't also be supplying volumes? And if this is still to come, how much does midstream give you a competitive advantage here?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I'd say that is our expectation. It's not, fully committed yet. You know, that project should reach FID in the back half of this year. You know, operating near full utilization, that's around 100,000,000 a day of gas supply. So it's it's not this sort of mega level of the other two projects.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

But I I think, logically, it is it is a project we will also supply gas to. But I think more come on that project.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yeah. And as far as a competitive edge with midstream, midstream is a competitive edge. I mean, being integrated allows us not only to give them access to supply but connect the dots for them. So I think it's it's it's been incredibly helpful, as we've sourced these opportunities.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yeah. I would say too, the one thing that Toby and I found to be really interesting is, you know, when we and our and our teams look at these opportunities, we start first with what is the best solution for the customer, and how do we connect those dots to provide the most efficient solution. If you don't have all the tools and the toolbox between midstream and and gas trading and the quantity of supply and investment grade ratings, you just you simply can't offer that. You you you have you have one product to offer. So I I think for a project like like like this, like this power plant, we can truly come to them and say we have the best solution or we can create the best solution for you if it's not a market solution.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

And I think that's one of reason why we've been able to be really successful. Really so far, the partner of choice for these big projects is they've been developed.

Phillip Jungwirth
Phillip Jungwirth
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Okay, great. And then on MVP boost, open season here, not sure how much you want to get into it, but are there any initial expectations as far as interest from demand pull type customers versus producers? And more broadly, just a similar question as it relates to some of these third party proposed pipelines out of Appalachia. Tariffs look like they could be quite high for producers. So how likely do you view some of these projects ultimately reaching FID?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I'd say we got to be careful in what we say because that open season is still active right now. I think our expectation is that in certain markets where there's a lot of scarcity for gas right now, the need for volumes or that or that egress, it's more with the end users as opposed to the producers. You know, consistent with with, I think, some of our comments in the past, I think these pipes, if and when they get built, will predominantly be underwritten by, demand pull shippers as opposed to supply push, producer shippers like you saw over the past decade. But look, we'll see when the open season concludes and we can provide more color next quarter.

Phillip Jungwirth
Phillip Jungwirth
Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets

Thanks guys.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanno with RBC Capital Markets. Scott, please go ahead.

Scott Hanold
Scott Hanold
Managing Director - Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets

Yes, thanks. Just curious as your balance sheet continues to improve, sounds like you want to be a lot more opportunistic with buybacks versus maybe doing it in a structured manner or whatnot. But how does potential strategic shareholder selling, say, like from the Olympus you know, shareholders selling, does does that play into it? Would you guys be willing to kind of step up and and help manage that if if that were to occur?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I mean, look, it all depends on the price. It's it's hard to speculate on things like that. But, look, I I think one of the big opportunities that Toby and I have been talking about for the past twenty four hours is for a lot of this growth that we feel really confident in looking at that end state and what that means for evaluation that some of the Matthew walked through in the beginning. If we're not getting credit for that early on, it it just opens up this huge opportunity for us to lean into buybacks with a lot of confidence where we have a lot more we're investing behind as opposed to just what gas price do you have to believe over the coming years, which is which is generally, you know, if you're in maintenance mode, the essence of the decision you're making. And I think what we're setting up for EQT is you can you can win on more things than just gas price, because we're we're taking more control of our own future and and and the value creation is part of that.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So I think the opportunity to buy the stock back becomes more attractive.

Scott Hanold
Scott Hanold
Managing Director - Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Okay. And then, my other question becomes or goes to the, the Deep Utica opportunity. Obviously, you talked about that underlying the some of the Olympus assets and probably elsewhere in your asset base. When does that become a target that you look a little bit harder at?

Scott Hanold
Scott Hanold
Managing Director - Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets

Do you see that as more of a longer term option? Or is that something you're willing to test a little bit more near term to help support the growth opportunity you need on your production base?

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yes. It's a longer term opportunity for us. That said, we could do some science work and give the team some opportunities to prove themselves on the cost side. Utica, I think we feel pretty good about the resource. It really is going to be more about the operational execution.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

So, I mean, we could call it science because we don't technically have that labeled as noncore, but it could be a tool for us to feather in. I mean, all of this, I think, would really want to have a better appreciation for the upside inventory. If we continue to see momentum on the commercial front supplying these power plants, Just having more confidence on inventory, I think, could be helpful. May be a reason why we go out there and do a couple, but it's more of a longer term in nature.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yes. It's kind of interesting. Good point on this, and I know the Deep Utic has got more airtime. In Southwest Appalachia, when most producers talk about inventory depth, we all just refer to the, Lower Marcellus, which is really the main Marcellus member. If you look at the Northeast part the play, inventory numbers referenced now include a heavy disproportionate amount of Upper Marcellus, which is, call it, 1.5 per thousand.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

And you look at the Haynesville, most of those numbers referenced now include a disproportionate amount of Middle Bossier. And when you think about the productivity of those second degree, or sort of like second tier, members of the formation to develop, compare that to the Deep Utica where around the Olympus area, the way we underwrote that is call it like $2.05, $2.06 Bcf per thousand. And and with well costs that are, you know, probably around what Haynesville well costs are, but that's before anybody's really spent time trying to drive the cost down. So for us, it's a free option and I think takes our thirty ish years of inventory out much farther. And so when we think about what could we grow into, there's a ton more resource out there that we have rights to in Appalachia that keep that opportunity wide open for us to continue growing.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Just a question of what price and how efficient can we get on the operations side, drilling the wells.

Scott Hanold
Scott Hanold
Managing Director - Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Thanks for that.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Roger Read with Wells Fargo. Roger, please go ahead.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Yeah. Good morning.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Good morning.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Maybe just come up with a couple of things here. One, sort of been talked about it, I guess, as we've gone through the call here, but, the idea with, you know, the very high PJM prices that are that are out there, obviously, local need, you've got the infrastructure. What are you seeing, or is there any way for you to kinda give us an idea of what's happening in the, you know, call it the behind the meter, the off grid in terms of demand beyond the very high profile, you know, Homer City and shipping port type projects?

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yeah. I'd say the dynamic that we're seeing is that in order to get this infrastructure bill, people are gonna be having to to sign up for PPAs that are just higher than than what market pricing is right now. I think that has been something that's caused a little bit of people just pause to make sure that what they what they're signing up for is is needed. But, you know, it's I think people now realizing the only way to get this infrastructure built is to get these PPAs in place. And it's and with inflation that's taking place, it's going to require a little bit higher pricing than what people have been accustomed to.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

But it's encouraging to see that these projects are are going to be going forward.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yeah. I think there's also the opportunity to add some peaking supply capacity. And when you add that, it allows you to increase your capacity factor across existing baseload from the levels that you see today and still have that reliability. But that additional peaking supply at current inflated rates due to the scarcity of equipment simply requires a much higher price than it did even before. And and I think that's one of the misconceptions that we've we've observed is you're seeing much higher electricity prices, but you've also seen the cost of building these gas plants roughly double from what they might have been three, four years ago.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So logically, just to keep economics flat, you need your spark spreads probably double too. So I I again, I think when when you read through the economics of what it actually takes to build one of these plants, you can you know, the need for electricity prices to rise and allow the market to evolve to meet the needs today and over the coming years just simply requires higher prices unless the price of building these projects and the cost of capital falls back lower again.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Okay. And then, just an unrelated follow-up. How are you thinking about hedging strategy at this point? I know at different times, there's been a goal for debt and then stepping away from hedging. Other times, you know, tied to what's going on maybe with the midstream business.

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

You've laid out, you know, potential not potential, but likely future, CapEx increases on the midstream side, you know. So not really price sensitive on the backside, but maybe price sensitive upfront on the CapEx commitment. So does that affect any way you're thinking about hedging over the next year or two?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Let me put it this way. So when we think about the appropriate debt level for our business, I mean, I made this comment in our opening remarks. At $2.75 gas, like Henry Hub pricing unhedged, we generate in a given year between 1,000,000,000 to $2,000,000,000 of unlevered free cash flow or said another way, your EBITDA less maintenance CapEx. So at $5,000,000,000 you're looking at a little over three years of just steady state unhedged to repay all your debt. Right?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

That compares to a lot of our peers that are free cash flow negative at that point in time. So, yes, we are trying to get our ratings higher. The agencies still wanna see our debt at a low level. But, fundamentally, I already feel like we're we're very underlevered, and and our balance sheet's in a very safe spot. We're mostly focused on on our maturities right now, specifically looking out to 2027 and resculpting that.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

So look. Hedging is something that I think we are less and less focused on. And I think if if we're in a structurally bull market over the next five to ten years, programmatically hedging or really hedging any other way aside from being opportunistic will net result in value structure over that period of time relative to just being a taker of where prices settle. And at the same time, it gives us more flexibility in how we, nominate our volumes, whether it's first to month or in the spot market. So I think as we move to a position where really no matter what prices are, we're going to be rapidly repaying debt, able to fund projects confidently, and wanting to provide investors that exposure to gas prices they want by investing in EQT structurally in addition to the growth we've talked about today.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I think our bias continues to the lowly hedged if not hedged at all. And if we are going to hedge, the types of things that we've been doing recently, hedging four by seven costless. Right? I think we'd be happy hedging a lot of that sort of price. And if we lose about $7 that's probably a fine outcome for our business.

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

Yeah. And only other dynamic I'd just add here is these investments that we're making in our sustainable growth projects are going to bring durability to our cash flows. And this $250,000,000 of midstream free cash flow from these growth projects, mean, are going to bring a pretty decent amount of durability. So we also are thinking about ways that our growth is going to continue to solidify the cash flow story at EQT, which is just worth noting. It's like adding a hedge.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yes. Mean, $250,000,000 to Toby's point is another $0.10 reduction in our breakeven cost by the time all this comes online towards the end of the decade. It's a huge savings, and takes us I think in our view as you model that out below $2

Roger Read
Roger Read
Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

I appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jacob Roberts with DPH. Jacob, please go ahead.

Jake Roberts
Director at TPH&Co

Good morning. Hopefully a quick one. In a pure reallocation scenario, and I know it will be pricing dependent, but do you see a meaningful shift to the percentages you guys lay out on Slide 24?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

I think that it's just simply going to be our election. And again, I think that goes back to Betty's question earlier about where pricing is on a relative basis. If we see basis price tighten up, you know, in basin from the call it $0.90 you see today closer to like $0.50 $0.60 You know, I I think we're pretty open minded about adding more exposure back in basin. It also just depends on, you know, when that is, what the remaining supply picture looks like. You know, we have a view that you you get towards the end of this decade.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

The Utica is also pretty thin on inventory, kind of like the Haynesville. And so again, think you just see a paradigm shift at that point in time where you have 30Bs of LNG becomes fully absorbed in the global market. You have all these power plants, data centers starting to really pull real demand at the same time you see inventory rollover. That will also structurally reset the market higher. And it's really a point in time we're kind of laying the groundwork to position for, where if we do grow, all of a sudden, going see a paradigm shift in pricing, and that growth we add is going to be worth a tremendous amount.

Jake Roberts
Director at TPH&Co

Okay. So there's nothing precluding you from moving gas wherever you want it? I guess it's the other way to ask that question.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Correct. All right.

Jake Roberts
Director at TPH&Co

Thank you. Appreciate the time.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of John Annes with Texas Capital. John, please go ahead.

John Annis
John Annis
Vice President at Texas Capital

My questions. For my first one, the two supply agreements announced are for projects located in Southwest Appalachia. How would you characterize the opportunity set for EQT to secure similar agreements in Northeast PA? Or is the Southwest just more attractive with your midstream assets there?

Toby Rice
Toby Rice
President, CEO & Director at EQT Corp

I think you're gonna see the opportunities anywhere you have EQT footprint, and that footprint can come from our midstream infrastructure. Footprint can also come from our commercial opportunities. It seems like there's a big gravitation of the tech community in Southwest Appalachia. And so we're seeing a lot of opportunities there. But I mean our footprint is pretty massive. So we are seeing opportunities across the horizon.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yeah. There's also nothing that precludes us from building a, for example, 20 mile lateral off someone else's pipeline to tie into a new power plant or data center. As long as our traders can secure the capacity on the pipelines and make sure we get volume there, twelve months out of the year at a price that makes sense. So again, I think between our trading arm and our midstream side of the business, in addition to our own equity volumes, we have a ton of flexibility.

John Annis
John Annis
Vice President at Texas Capital

I appreciate it. And then just a quick housekeeping item on the tax front. With the tax rule changes and recently passed legislation, how does that change your outlook for cash taxes over the next couple of years?

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Yeah. That's a great question. Thanks. Actually, tees up some important color, that we did not cover in prepared remarks. So just the tax bill alone saves us in the next couple of years about $500,000,000 in taxes by deferring that out.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Present value, that's about $450,000,000 So logically, that's very front end weighted in that that five year window. But that is also before the impact of a lot of the spending, this billion dollar opportunity. For FERC regulated projects, which is approximately, like, the MVP related projects are about half of that billion dollars for perspective. FERC assets are are normally depreciated under, like, a fifteen year maker's type schedule, but the rest of that is gathering CapEx. And under that new bill, with the with the, which really bring bring back, bonus depreciation up to a 100%.

Jeremy Knop
Jeremy Knop
CFO at EQT Corp

Effectively, all that CapEx, we can expense day one and defer taxes on. And so as we ramp into this, whether it's the midstream side or then it's the upstream side with IDCs, it actually serves to push taxes off in time for us. Because taxes otherwise were going to become a pretty large expense over the next couple So it's really timely for that bill to happen. And that's also to look into growth because it will minimize that cost line item for us that we otherwise were anticipating.

John Annis
John Annis
Vice President at Texas Capital

Great update. Thanks guys.

Operator

Thank you everyone. That concludes our question and answer session and also concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Cameron Horwitz
      Cameron Horwitz
      MD, IR & Strategy
    • Toby Rice
      Toby Rice
      President, CEO & Director
    • Jeremy Knop
      Jeremy Knop
      CFO
Analysts
    • Doug Leggate
      MD & Senior Research Analyst at Wolfe Research
    • Devin Mcdermott
      MD - Research at Morgan Stanley
    • Arun Jayaram
      Research Analyst at JP Morgan Chase & Co
    • Neil Mehta
      Head - Americas Natural Resources Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
    • Kalei Akamine
      Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America
    • Josh Silverstein
      Managing Director at UBS Group
    • Betty Jiang
      Senior Equity Research Analyst - US Integrated Oil and E&Ps at Barclays
    • Phillip Jungwirth
      Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets
    • Scott Hanold
      Managing Director - Energy Research at RBC Capital Markets
    • Roger Read
      Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities
    • Jake Roberts
      Director at TPH&Co
    • John Annis
      Vice President at Texas Capital
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