PACCAR Q2 2025 Earnings Report

PACCAR EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.37
• Consensus EPS: $1.28
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.09
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.13

PACCAR Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $6.96 billion
• Expected Revenue: $7.02 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$59.58 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -15.70%

PACCAR Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2025
• Date: 7/22/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 12:00PM ET

PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Canada, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment also offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment. The company also manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

PACCAR Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: PACCAR reported Q2 revenues of $7.5 billion and an adjusted net income of $724 million, driven by strong truck and parts performance.
• Positive Sentiment: PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $1.72 billion with a 30% gross margin and expects 4–6% sales growth in Q3.
• Positive Sentiment: PACCAR Financial Services delivered $123 million pretax income, fueled by strong credit quality and premium used‐truck resale values.
• Negative Sentiment: PACCAR anticipates 32,000–33,000 Q3 deliveries and a 13% gross margin, but notes tariff uncertainty makes forecasting challenging.
• Positive Sentiment: The company plans $750–800 million in capital investments and $450–480 million in R&D for next-gen clean diesels, electric/alternative powertrains, ADAS and connected services.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, and welcome to PACCAR's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be in a listen only mode until the question and answer session. Today's call is being recorded. And if anyone has an objection, they should disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.

[Ken Hastings, Senior Director - IR at Paccar]

Good morning. We'd like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings, PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feit, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Bainie, Executive Vice President and Bryce Poplowski, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As with prior conference calls, we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen only mode.

[Ken Hastings, Senior Director - IR at Paccar]

Certain information presented today will be forward looking and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect expected results. For additional information, please see our SEC filings at the Investor Relations page at paccar.com. I would now like to introduce Preston Feit.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Hey, thanks Ken. Good morning everyone. Kevin, Bryce, Ken and I will update you on our second quarter financial results and business highlights. In these dynamic times, our PACCAR employees have done a great job providing our customers with the highest quality trucks and transportation solutions in the industry. PACCAR achieved good revenues and net income in the second quarter, including record revenues at PACCAR Parts, good performance by the truck divisions and strong financial services results.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

PACCAR achieved revenues of $7,500,000,000 and adjusted net income of $724,000,000 PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $1,720,000,000 and excellent quarterly pretax income of $417,000,000 The team did a great job increasing revenues in an overall flat parts market. PACCAR Financial had a very good quarter, increasing pretax income to $123,000,000 And we estimate this year's U. S. And Canadian Class eight market to be in a range of 230,000 to 260,000 trucks. North American truck market size is a result of general economic conditions, a soft truckload market and tariff and EPA 27 policy uncertainty.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Customer demand in the less than truckload and vocational segments is good. In Europe, DOS innovative aerodynamic trucks provide customers with best in class fuel efficiency and driver comfort. And we were recently in Europe and met with some of those customers who shared their appreciation of the performance of these great DAF trucks. We project the twenty twenty five European above 16 ton market to be in a range of 270,000 to 300,000. This year's South American above 16 ton truck market is expected to be in the range of 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

PACCAR delivered 39,300 trucks during the second quarter and anticipates delivering around 32,000 to 33,000 in the third quarter. Third quarter production reflects the normal summer shutdown in Europe and build rates in North America that are matched to the market. PACCAR's truck, parts and other gross margins were 13.9% in the second quarter. Given the uncertain tariff structure, it's difficult to forecast third quarter margins. Assuming the current tariff structure and market conditions, third quarter margins could be around 13%.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

I'm proud to share that over 90% of PACCAR's U. S.-delivered trucks are produced in our American factories. Clarification of the ongoing IEPA and Section two thirty two trade policies could enhance market clarity as well as benefit PACCAR and our customers. We anticipate the North American market will strengthen as tariff policies become certain, the truckload market gains momentum and customers begin to anticipate the twenty twenty seven NOx emission standards. Kevin Bainie will now provide an update on PACCAR Parts, PACCAR Financial Services and other business highlights. Kevin?

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

Thank you, Preston. PACCAR Parts achieved record revenues in the second quarter with excellent gross margins of 30%. We estimate that PACCAR's year over year part sales to grow by 4% to 6% in the third quarter. PACCAR Parts continues to grow through ongoing investments in capacity and services. Pakkar Parts is focused on delivering the right part to the right place at the right time to provide industry leading support for our customers.

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

PACCAR Financial Services pretax income was a robust $123,000,000 up from $111,000,000 a year earlier. This reflects strong credit quality and improving used truck results. PACCAR Financial operates 13 used truck centers around the world to support the sale of premium Kenworth, Peterbilt and DOP used trucks. PACCAR is building another used truck center in Warsaw, Poland, which will open this year. Pakkar used trucks sell at a premium compared to competitors' used trucks.

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

Similar to Pakkar Parts, Pakkar Financial provides steady foundational profitability during all phases of the business cycle. This year, PACCAR is planning capital investments in the range of $750,000,000 to $800,000,000 and R and D in the range of $450,000,000 to $480,000,000 as we invest in key technology and innovation projects. These include next generation clean diesel and alternative powertrains, advanced driver assistance systems and integrated connected vehicle services. Is also investing in its truck and engine factories to support long term growth as well as our customers' and dealers' success. PACCAR's industry leading trucks, expanding parts business, best in class financial services and advanced technology strategy position the company for an excellent future. We are pleased to answer your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question today comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Jerry, please go ahead.

[Jerry Revich, Senior investment leader & Head - US Machinery, Infrastructure & Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Yes, hi. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. I'm wondering if you could just comment on the really strong sequential price improvement performance you saw in the quarter, how much of that it was makes versus getting the price increases in for the higher tariff content? And as you think about pricing based on what's in backlog for 3Q, what's that cadence in pricing look like 3Q versus 2Q compared to the roughly 3% sequential increase we just saw this quarter?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Sure, Jerry. It's an interesting time in the market. And as we look at the effect of tariffs on Q2, they were certainly well present for us. And we think that the amount of tariff impact will and the current structure increase in Q3. So we'll have an increased weight of impact on price versus cost for us in Q3.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And that's obviously a North American centric comment. There's some variability sitting in there because it depends on how the tariff structures continue, whether that's February or court rulings on AIPA. It could also be affected by the current August 1 statements around what new tariffs might be affected and what rates they'll be at.

[Jerry Revich, Senior investment leader & Head - US Machinery, Infrastructure & Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Okay. Thank you, Preston. And then in terms of your discussions on Section two thirty two with the government, can touch on that? We've heard that they might be committing to a sixty day review cycle versus the quoted maximum of $2.70. Are you hearing that in your conversations as well?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Well, I think the way we think about it is PACCAR builds, as I said, over 90% of our trucks for The U. S. Market in The United States. That's really I think good for the country. If we use a little bit of reference of February for the auto and light truck industry, you could say that that was a review where it was felt it was strategically important that cars and light trucks be made in America.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

That's kind of the government indicated. That's what their stated policies have been. And so the current ongoing investigation into February for medium and heavy trucks, they had their open comment period. They completed that. They're now in the investigation phase.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And as you noted, Jerry, they don't have to take the full two seventy days. We're speculating to know what they're actually going to do, but it wouldn't be utterly surprising if it was less than that and then a conclusion was made.

[Jerry Revich, Senior investment leader & Head - US Machinery, Infrastructure & Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Super. And lastly, in terms of the tariff impact on a per unit basis in the third quarter, can you just comment directionally? Is that in the 4,000 per unit range, the way it looks like from the bill of materials? Or can you just help us understand that so we know the variables if we do see a favorable Section two thirty two outcome?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Yes. As we look at it, obviously, mentioned already there's some variability within that tariff structure of whether copper is included, whether there's an August 1 change to things. So I'm giving you a plus or minus number. But in general, what we would say is maybe the quarterly effect is something like 75,000,000

[Jerry Revich, Senior investment leader & Head - US Machinery, Infrastructure & Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Thank you. Nice performance given the variability.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Appreciate the comment, Jerry. Thanks for the questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Kaufman with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner - Transportation & Logistics at Vertical Research Partners]

Thank you very much and congratulations in an uncertain environment. I was just wondering with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the R and D and CapEx depreciation acceleration that a lot of companies will be getting, have customers reengaged you about the '26 order season?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Yes. Appreciate the comments on the quarter and also a really insightful question. And the answer is, yes, they're actually starting to engage us on that as that legislation is passed and it does have benefits to their cash. Their ability to deploy that cash for capital asset purchases like trucks is starting to be part of the conversation and is part of our optimism for the latter part of the year.

[Brice Poplawski, CFO & SVP at Paccar]

Yes. And then I would just add, this is Bryce, it be very positive for us as a company as well because that R and D expensing as well as the immediate R and D expense expensing on the fixed assets, we think will provide cash tax benefits in the 300,000,000 to $400,000,000 range. So it's good news for us, good news for our customers.

[Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner - Transportation & Logistics at Vertical Research Partners]

Right, Bryce, you beat me to the second half of the question. So that's all I have.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

He's that good.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to maybe follow-up on that just in terms of the I think the second half deliveries implied by kind of the industry outlook and assuming your market share remains intact is a little bit more kind of stable, in terms of U. S. And Canada for the second half versus first half.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

And to your point or the comments around seeing good kind of conversations with customers around potential benefits that from the one big beautiful bill that maybe drive some incentive to ordering. Curious, could you just provide a little bit more color? I guess we've had three months now of pretty weak orders. So do you expect then the next month we'll start to see that essentially rebound and that's what gives you confidence in the second half? Or as we think about order dynamics here that we're seeing, why won't that have a bigger kind of impact on underlying deliveries that you kind of expect in the second half?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Yes. Really fun question, Angel. Thanks for asking. There's a few factors going into the sequencing of orders. One of the things that's in the truckload sector, which is a pretty significant part of the overall market in The U.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

S. And Canada, is that there was some overcapacity. I think that overcapacity is coming out gradually. And as that gets in balance, it will help with rates, which will help with profitability for the carriers, which will help with truck orders. So that's one factor in there.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Another key factor that gives us confidence that is we'll see improvement is the fact that the big beautiful bill that you referenced has an upside potential for us as the year gets through. Another one is regulatory emission standards. So as we all know, there's a greenhouse gas component and a NOx component. The greenhouse gas component for 2027 is likely not to change. So that's what a lot of people can understand now, which means there'll be no further GHD requirements.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

However, the law is in 2027 that the standard of NOx will move from 200 down to 35. If it moves from 200 to 35, that'll bring on cost to the product which will encourage customers to be buying trucks probably beginning later in this year. And then there's the factor around tariffs. I think that with uncertainty, customers kind of pause and with clarity comes confidence. So if we get confidence and certainty around tariff structures in the third quarter, then I think customers' reactions to that will be positive and we think that that should be favorable for PACCAR.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

So there's quite a few reasons to weigh in there for our confidence as the year goes along here.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

Super helpful. Thank you. And then maybe just another one that I thought was really powerful. I guess the guidance for parts in the third quarter, thought if I heard you correctly, think you guided to 4% to 6% top line growth. Can you just help us understand maybe what's kind of driving that reacceleration in the parts business, what you're seeing and kind of demand trends?

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

And if you could also maybe just comment on what gross margin is assumed for 3Q within your guidance for parts?

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

Yes. I'll just I'll start with reiterating that we had record revenue in Q2 and 3.4% sales growth. And so that was done during a flat parts market. So anytime we can get revenue growth and sales growth in a flat market is a good thing. So the forecast for 4% to 6% for the third quarter is just a testament to the parts team doing a really nice job providing parts and programs to deliver excellent customer service.

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

We see that performance starting to normalize back to stronger sales growth. So I think the parts outlook is strong.

[Brice Poplawski, CFO & SVP at Paccar]

And in the second quarter, we have a few more bank holidays and other holidays in Europe. So we see a higher number of ship days in the third quarter in Europe, and that's our very strong market for the part sales. So that will help us as well.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley]

Very helpful. Thank you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

You bet. Have a good day.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

[Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst - US Machinery at Bernstein]

Hey, good afternoon, guys. So what to what extent is the possibility of a pre buy changing your down cycle playbook? Do you feel the need to hold on to labor longer just in case the pre buy happens? Just curious on how this influences your view on like what sort of fixed cost absorption is acceptable.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Yes, sure, Chad. As you know, PACCAR focuses on lean efficient production, always has, always will. And so we continue to do that. What we see is that we've done a great job of controlling costs both in our fixed operations, if you want to call them that, and also in our factories. But we're very proud of our wonderful employees.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And so as we see upside to the market, we obviously are looking for them to keep building great trucks. And as we see the markets' likelihood of improving as the year continues, then we'll see that it'll be good for everybody, good for employees, good for the company. And so we're trying to keep that in the right balance.

[Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst - US Machinery at Bernstein]

That's helpful. And then just secondly, can you just comment on just like the sort of pricing that you're seeing in the back half of the year? Are the price increases sticking? Just comment on just what your clients are telling you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Well, think it goes into the earlier discussion we had around the market in general. I think that as their profitability improves and their need for trucks continues to increase, then that's good for the market dynamics. Right now I think as that capacity has come out, but still coming out, there's this balance that's being achieved. And once we get through that balance point, then we'll start to see increasing demand. And going back and remember that we're really kind of talking about a replacement market, which should be in the 260s, 270s.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And so we're not really chewing into that at all and trucks are running and freight ton miles are not low. So this is all creating some level of pent up demand for the future.

[Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst - US Machinery at Bernstein]

Thanks, guys.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Michael Feniger, MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Yes. Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Preston, Just just on the parts with the 4% to 6% top line, I realize you guys are growing parts in a flat market. With the top line potentially up 4% to 6% in the third quarter, do you think you can grow profit at that same rate?

[Michael Feniger, MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

I know it's a little challenging in a flat market. Just kind of curious what's the right environment where we could kind of see the parts revenue growing and seeing that pretax profit and that margin also maybe growing along with that?

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

Yes, Michael, great question. We are proud of the team for being able to deliver the parts growth in a flat market. We definitely see upside. When we look at the overall truck part, it's still at elevated levels. Those customers still need their truck serviced and that comes with parts.

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

And so our dealers continue to add capacity. And whether it's in updated locations, new locations, PACCAR continues to add distribution centers. And so I think all of that points to as we see the ongoing sales growth, we see upside in the profit as well.

[Michael Feniger, MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Great. And just my last one is just on the inventory side. I know there's your inventory, then we obviously have the industry. How do you feel your own inventory setup given some of the moving pieces that you're seeing with tariffs, but also potential of a prebuy at some point maybe next year? Do you carry a little bit more?

[Michael Feniger, MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Do you have to kind of work some of that down as we move through the year? Just kind of curious how you fit your inventory position and how you think your competitors in the industry overall is set up as we're dealing with these dynamics as we move into 2026? Thank you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Sure. You bet. Nice question, Michael. If you look at the industry Class eight inventory, it's at four point two months of retail sales. You look at Kenworth and Peterbilt's inventory, it's really two point nine months of retail sales.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

We feel very good about our inventory position. And one of the things that also factors into that is roughly half of our trucks are at bodybuilders. That inventory is at bodybuilders. So that's an overrepresented part because PACCAR is the leader in the vocational segment. And so our inventory feels well positioned.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And as you know, we build the order. So we feel like we've maintained our disciplines and are in a very good position from an inventory standpoint.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

[Jamie Cook, MD - Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Good morning. Nice quarter. I guess first, the deliveries Preston and the deliveries exceeded the high end of your expectations, margins were at the high end. Was there anything unusual in the margins and why were the deliveries better? Was it just sort of a pre buy ahead of tariffs?

[Jamie Cook, MD - Equity Research at Truist Securities]

And then I guess my second question, just given what you're seeing about the back half of the year, to what degree do you have confidence that like the 13% in the third quarter could mark sort of the bottom for margins if things start to normalize? And to what degree do you think, know, while you're not guiding for 2026, ACT, I think, is assuming production is about flat next year. Any color around how you're thinking about 2026? It sounds like you're more optimistic, but I don't want to put words in your mouth. Thank you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Jamie, that's series of questions right there. And first, thanks for the comments on the quarter. Feels like a good position that we're in. When I think about deliveries for the third quarter, it kind of has the European normal shutdown period. So that's part of it.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And then I think adjustments in the market is part of it as we look at it. And then we feel like it depends on getting some of the stability that we've talked about in terms of other positions for like, are we going to have tariff clarity and will we have regulatory clarity around NOx emissions. So as we think about deliveries and the 13% for the quarter, it feels like that we could be, as your words, thinking about talking about the bottom of a cycle. And then I would kind of we've been kind of internally thinking and sharing with you that we feel like we are structurally stronger. And we went back and looked at the last time, had roughly 38,000 deliveries 36,000 deliveries.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And we had like 4,900,000,000 in revenue and made $386,000,000 in profit. So comparatively, I think this is just demonstrating that cycle over cycle strength that our team has delivered. And that's the parts team, that's the financial services team, that's the truck divisions. I mean, there's been that's the new trucks that are in the marketplace. It's the great dealers, it's the relationships with suppliers, a lot of good things that are going in the right direction.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And that is delivering for our shareholders, our customers and our employees.

[Jamie Cook, MD - Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Any color on how you're thinking about twenty twenty six better than what the flat?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Feel pretty good about 2026. I think that there's going to be clarity in these regulatory standards because they're employing in 2027 one way or another. There will be clarity around tariffs one way or another. And as we said, the trucks are getting used, so 2026 should see improvement.

[Jamie Cook, MD - Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Thank you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

You bet. Have a good day, Jamie.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Please go ahead, Tami.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. Good afternoon. Thank you so much.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

I wanted to ask you about the engine remanufacturing plant. When do you expect that to be fully operational? And when at run rate, how many engines do you expect that facility to be able to remanufacture annually?

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

Okay. Good question, Tammy. So it'll be operational in the first quarter of next year. And then when it gets up to full run rate, we anticipate about 5,000 remand engine a year going through that facility.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Got it. And my second question is on the outlook for South America. I'm guessing the reduced outlook is the function of what's happening in Brazil. So just any color you can provide on what drove that revision and the outlook versus the beginning of the year? What changed that's driving this outlook revision?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Tammy, thanks for the second question. For sure, you're right. It's mostly driven through Brazil. And the biggest impact there is interest rates. They have the 400 basis point interest rate increases in the past since the beginning of the year.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And so that's certainly affecting consumer confidence and willingness to invest in trucks right now. And so I think those are the two biggest factors.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JP Morgan]

Okay. Thank you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Volkmann with Jefferies. Please go ahead, Steven.

[Stephen Volkmann, Equity Analyst at Jefferies & Company Inc]

Great. Hello, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. Just a couple of quick follow ups here. We don't have nearly as much visibility into the European market.

[Stephen Volkmann, Equity Analyst at Jefferies & Company Inc]

I'm just curious if you can comment on sort of directionally is that market do you think a growth market going forward? We've talked about some investments, I guess, some government investments over there. I'm curious if you're seeing anything in that regard.

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

Yes, Stephen. I'd say given the economic overall economic conditions have some uncertainty in Europe, a 270,000 to 300,000 truck market is relatively strong given that the economics. And for PACCAR and DAF specifically, we've had a strong market share in the last month. And year to date, share is up compared to this time last year. DAF share is traditionally strong in Eastern Europe.

[Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar]

And as Preston said in his comments, we were with some customers recently and see some upside. And so if you look at that size market, that's a little above replacement value. So I'd say that that's a strong market given the conditions and that's likely the short term ongoing forecast.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And I would add that the thing that's helping us there is we introduced our new product and it's still the only truck that was designed to meet the masses and dimensions regulations over there. It's providing industry leading fuel economy. It's the best truck for the driver. It's the coolest truck, to be honest with you. And so there's a lot of things to really like about how things are going.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And then in 2025, we introduced some advanced technologies onto the platform, which also further enhances performance and fuel efficiency. So feeling very good about the DOC team and what they're doing.

[Stephen Volkmann, Equity Analyst at Jefferies & Company Inc]

Super. Thank you for that. And then on the vocational side, we hear some channel checks that sort of suggest that there were a lot of orders and obviously a lot of backlog in the industry, and now we're starting to kind of work through all that. And the orders on vocational have also been a little bit weaker, recently. So I I guess I'm wondering as you deliver this 50% Preston of your inventory that's at bodybuilders, is there a risk that vocational is sort of the next end market to kind of go down before it goes up?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Well, I think that's a that's kind of a I would never have used the word weaker to describe the vocational market. I would have said that it was frothy for a while, and now it's just good. So so I might say that we're operating in a good vocational market. I think there's a lot of infrastructure spending that's going into the country under the administration's objectives and infrastructure spending is good for the vocational market. So I think that that bodes well for a steady strong vocational sector for a while.

[Stephen Volkmann, Equity Analyst at Jefferies & Company Inc]

Okay, great to hear. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

All right. Thanks. Have a good day, Steve.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS. Please go ahead.

[Steven Fisher, MD & Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Thanks. Good morning. Just on the pricing topic, just curious how far out you are able to provide firm pricing to your customers or do all the units basically come with a caveat that pricing can change as the tariff situation evolves? And how does that affect the order patterns?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Yes. We do have a tariff surcharge listed onto our trucks for The U. S. And Canada right now. And so we are pricing that in, which allows us to price out into the future.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And then these are customers, they're business partners and they're friends that we're talking about. And so each of these discussions and business relationships has that discussion around if tariffs change, then there's a change potentially in what the pricing is. So that's a very active and live dialogue and it allows us with these great relationships to price out into the future.

[Steven Fisher, MD & Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Okay. And then just looking beyond the cyclical dynamics here, really just thinking about the growth opportunities ahead, it seems like maybe EV and autonomy are perhaps a bit slower to develop. Do you think there's any structural growth opportunities in trucks? Or is that all really in parts and finco? And if so, should we expect you to really increase your focus on parts and finco even more relative to what you talked about at the investor meeting last year?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Sure. Well, I suggest that in general, trucks move most of the freight in the country. I don't think that's going to decrease. I think if anything, that's going to increase. You referenced autonomy.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

I don't think that's tomorrow. But when autonomy happens, then you'll see that increase the number of trucks required in the country because they'll become even more efficient at delivering freight. So that will be good for PACCAR's business. You mentioned EV. So EV adoption curves, we've been wise and prudent through our investment cycles on EV investments over time.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

We continue to believe that there's a role for them to play as we look forward into the future. But a market based role is probably what more likely happens for the next several years. So that's great for us. We're well positioned for that. And we think that EV vehicles tend to be more expensive.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

So that's obviously good for PACCAR's overall business model. Regulations are going to happen. Regulations drive complexity. Complexity ends up being more components on a truck, which is more proprietary part share. And then I think so all those things are foundationally good.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

PACCAR continues to deliver the trucks that our customers want, that the drivers desire in all sectors of the market. So that's good for our business growth. And then I would say from a parts and FinCo standpoint, our parts business is just part of our overall strategy of delivering connected and vehicle performance for our customers. So the more we're able to deliver uptime for our customers, the better it is for them and the better it is for PACCAR. It's a win win situation.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

So parts, Finco and connected services for us are great growth opportunities for the future.

[Steven Fisher, MD & Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Thanks for the insights.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kyle Menges with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

[Kyle Menges, VP - Equity Research Analyst at Citi]

Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping if you could just comment a little bit on the medium duty truck market, just how are inventories? And then you mentioned you feel good about '26. I'd assume that was more of a Class eight comment. But I mean, does that apply to medium duty as well?

[Kyle Menges, VP - Equity Research Analyst at Citi]

And just how do you think about changes to emission standards in '27 being a catalyst for some pre buy in medium duty next year?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Great question, Kyle. Thanks a lot. If you look at industry inventory for medium duty, it's around six months. And for Kenworth and Peterbilt, it's more like four point five months. And then again, you have the same ratio of bodybuilders and that high percentage of vocational mix for Peterbilt and Kenworth.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

So we're in a very good position from a medium duty inventory standpoint. I think that there is the same factors that are playing into the medium duty market for 2027, which could create stimulation for a medium duty market improvement in 'twenty six. Good question.

[Kyle Menges, VP - Equity Research Analyst at Citi]

Got it. That's all for me. Thanks, Ian. Thank you.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Have a good day.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Hey, thanks for the time. The $75,000,000 of estimated tariff cost in 3Q, just any can you just maybe try to quantify what the impact was in Q2? And if we if things stay stable, where do you think that net $75,000,000 impact falls to in Q4?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Well, help me a little bit, Scott, with your question around stable. What does stable mean in your vernacular?

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Sorry, maybe I didn't ask you right. Meaning there's no incremental change in tariffs. So you just have an opportunity to Yes. Sort of catch up on

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

I think they were less in the second quarter for sure because there's a timing effect of when they came in. There was the effect of what material was in country. So it's a gradual increase through the second quarter into the third quarter. And it was something significantly less than the $75,000,000 Now as we get to the fourth quarter, to your question, I think the most important factor is February clarification and whether or not there's a change as a result of February and how that could affect the fourth quarter tariff structures we have. Without that even, our teams are doing a great job of working with suppliers and looking for how you think about USMCA content of parts coming into the country and ensuring that the maximum number of parts are USMCA certified under the current rules, which then reduces tariffs risk to us over time.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

But that's how I generally think about the 2Q, 3Q and 4Q tariff picture.

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of sort of the order book and activity, maybe just are we where are we on the order book for '25? When do you think you when do you open up '26? And then within that recent uptick in maybe some conversations, any notable difference?

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

And is that more vocational, private fleet, for hire, just sort of where you're seeing that?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Sure.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

I mean, the market's filling in or the order book is filling in, in the third quarter. North America is roughly 50%. Europe is mostly full. And I think that what we see is still, as we said, vocational markets remain good and the LTL market maybe especially remains good. We mentioned already in the discussion that the term the big beautiful bill is probably helpful to our customers' cash position and could create some incentive for orders further out in the year.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

So I don't think it's just one area. I think it's just getting certainty. As we get clarity, that will create confidence for our customers. As they have confidence, then that will increase their ability to order trucks.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Nick Housden with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Nick Housden, Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I've just got two. So in terms of the Q3 deliveries, think you said 32,000 to 33,000.

[Nick Housden, Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Can you provide any comments around the regional breakdown of that, please?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

I would think of it in terms of plus or minus normal splits is kind of where I would go with it. I wouldn't really shift around very much in it. So you're going to have Q3 has the impact of the three week time off in Europe, which is very, very normal. So that's going to sit in there. And then I would think that there's probably the drops in North America to match to the market.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

So that ratio stays maybe more affected in the third quarter than might normally be. And then I would say Mexico continues to be experiencing the same kind of tariff discussions. So that's a space in the market that's a bit softer.

[Nick Housden, Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Got it. And then your comment about 90% of trucks for The U. S. Are currently being built in The U. S.

[Nick Housden, Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Can you provide any comments just around what the breakdown for the supply chain is and how those percentages might move around?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Well, supply chain is varied obviously, right? And so we would have to spend a lot more time than we probably have to think about how supply chain works because there's Tier one, two and three and they all factor in from different places. But suffice it to say that there are components that come from Mexico or from Canada or from the ASEAN region or South America or Europe that go into the trucks. But PACCAR, as we said, has the production facilities in North America, which is critically important. And I think that's what the administration feels so as well.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And so we think that as we look forward from a tariff standpoint, they'll encourage the truck production, hopefully encourage the truck production in America and that components that are critical for manufacturing in America will also be included in that, which we'll be able to support and our suppliers will support.

[Nick Housden, Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Walter Piecyk with LightShed. Please go ahead.

[Walter Piecyk, General Partner at LightShed Ventures]

Thanks. Hey, Preston. Your partner Aurora is very well respected, obviously, within the technology industry and used your truck to go driver out this past quarter. And then I guess you guys had some interest in having them put a driver back in the driver's seat there. Just curious kind of what your thoughts are there.

[Walter Piecyk, General Partner at LightShed Ventures]

Like, what was the reasoning for that? How does that differ from other PACCAR trucks that are also, you know, using, autonomous technology with your truck? Like, why, in Aurora's case, do they have to have a driver back in? And and maybe when do you anticipate being okay with them taking that driver out and then seeing that market start to expand a bit more? Because obviously that certainly could be a demand opportunity for you. Thanks.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

Good question. Thanks for asking. We think there's great progress being made in the field of autonomy. PACCAR continues the development of its autonomous vehicle platform. So that's encouraging for us.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And we think that Aurora is making good progress as well in the development of the autonomous driver that could go into that, as are others, like Kodiak and others like Stack. So we see others making progress as well. We always operate at PACCAR with the safety being our most fundamental foundational principle. And so for us, we want that to remain as the true north for us. It will remain as a true north for us.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

And so having the driver in seems like the smartest idea, and that's how we're operating the trucks.

[Walter Piecyk, General Partner at LightShed Ventures]

Is there a certain milestone you're hoping that they achieve? Because obviously, that company won't exist in the future if they always have a driver in. The whole point of it is to have a driver out. So what do you think you need to see to permit at least your trucks to have driver out?

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

No. We don't ever discuss when we're going to go to production with things. But always what we do is things should be fully production. And when things are fully production, validated, completed production, then that's when we have that conversation.

[Walter Piecyk, General Partner at LightShed Ventures]

Great. Thank you very much.

[R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar]

You bet. Thanks for the question.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions in the queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?

[Ken Hastings, Senior Director - IR at Paccar]

We'd like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you operator.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Analysts

• Ken Hastings, Senior Director - IR at Paccar
• R. Preston Feight, CEO & Director at Paccar
• Kevin Baney, EVP at Paccar
• Jerry Revich, Senior investment leader & Head - US Machinery, Infrastructure & Sustainable Tech franchise at Goldman Sachs
• Jeffrey Kauffman, Partner - Transportation & Logistics at Vertical Research Partners
• Brice Poplawski, CFO & SVP at Paccar
• Angel Castillo, Executive Director at Morgan Stanley
• Chad Dillard, Senior Analyst - US Machinery at Bernstein
• Michael Feniger, MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
• Jamie Cook, MD - Equity Research at Truist Securities
• Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JP Morgan
• Stephen Volkmann, Equity Analyst at Jefferies & Company Inc
• Steven Fisher, MD & Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group
• Kyle Menges, VP - Equity Research Analyst at Citi
• Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research
• Nick Housden, Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Walter Piecyk, General Partner at LightShed Ventures