ArcelorMittal Q2 2025 Earnings Report

ArcelorMittal EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.32
• Consensus EPS: $1.33
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.63

ArcelorMittal Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $15.93 billion
• Expected Revenue: $15.48 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$443.67 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -2.00%

ArcelorMittal Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2025
• Date: 7/31/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, July 31, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 9:30AM ET

ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) is a leading global steel and mining company with integrated operations spanning the full steel value chain. Headquartered in Luxembourg, the company engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of iron ore and coal, as well as the production of a broad range of steel products. Its portfolio includes flat and long carbon steel, stainless steel, and tubular products, serving diverse end markets such as automotive, construction, energy, appliances, and packaging industries.

With a presence in over 60 countries and operations in more than 18 nations, ArcelorMittal maintains mining assets in regions including North and South America, Europe, and Africa. The company’s facilities encompass modern steel plants, mining complexes, and research centers that support continuous innovation in steelmaking and raw‐material processing. These global operations enable ArcelorMittal to serve regional and international customers with local service and supply chain resilience.

Formed in 2006 through the merger of Mittal Steel and Arcelor, ArcelorMittal built on a legacy of steelmaking that dates back to the early 20th century. Chairman Lakshmi N. Mittal, whose family founded the original Mittal Steel Company, leads the board, while Aditya Mittal, appointed Chief Executive Officer in 2021, oversees the company’s strategic direction. Throughout its history, ArcelorMittal has pursued expansion and efficiency, growing through a combination of greenfield investments and acquisitions to strengthen its product offerings and geographic reach.

Innovation and sustainability are core to ArcelorMittal’s strategy. The company invests in research and development to advance high‐performance steels, digital manufacturing processes, and technologies aimed at reducing carbon emissions. With long‐term targets to improve energy efficiency and lower its environmental footprint, ArcelorMittal collaborates with customers and industry partners to deploy solutions that support a more sustainable steel industry.

ArcelorMittal Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Structural EBITDA gains: Q2 EBITDA rose to $135/ton, reflecting asset optimization and growth projects that are delivering structurally higher margins.
• Positive Sentiment: Calvert acquisition advantages: 100% ownership of Calvert drove record shipments, accelerated EAF ramp-up, secured a seven-year domestic slab supply and underpins the new $1 billion Alabama electrical steel plant.
• Negative Sentiment: Mexico outage impact: A transformer failure and furnace maintenance at Lázaro Cárdenas caused around $40 million of losses and will reduce long-steel shipments over the coming months.
• Neutral Sentiment: EBITDA upside from projects: Completed strategic initiatives and M&A are expected to lift normalized EBITDA by $2.1 billion versus 2024, with one-third of the benefit in the current financial year.
• Positive Sentiment: Europe outlook improvement: Pending trade defense measures and the carbon border mechanism should restore fair competitiveness and support margin recovery in the region.

Presentation

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress during the 2025. Leading today's call will be our CFO, Mr. Joino Cristina.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation in detail, but we published it this morning on our website for your information. I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers that are on slide number 25 of that presentation. As normal, Jean Reno will make some opening remarks before moving directly to the Q and A session. So to ask a question, please do press star one one on your keypad to join the queue. Over to you, Gemino.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Daniel, and welcome everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief, Beginning with safety, a core value for our company. We are less than one year into what we know will be at least a three year transformation to implement the six core safety recommendations post the audit last year. Already, our enhanced safety assurance model has improved oversight and consistency. I'm encouraged by the progress we are making and the determination that I see in my colleagues to drive lasting change and achieve our targets as quickly as possible.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Now, I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results continue to show structural improvements. Second quarter EBITDA increased as expected and at $135 per ton, our margin continues to show that the benefits of our asset optimization and growth strategy are delivering structurally higher margins. Our strategic projects have good momentum. Liberia posted a record volume quarter.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Our India renewables project is delivering all the performance that was expected and more. And the commissioning of our new value added capacity at Hazira is underway. Our strategic projects together with the impacts of recently completed M and A are an important support to our EBITDA profile. Compared to 2024 base, the impact on future normalized EBITDA is now expected to be $2,100,000,000 a third of which is due to be captured in the current financial year. Acetelomitau has a unique asset portfolio and this creates significant optionality for high return strategic investments.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So, I'm confident that we can maintain our growth momentum. My second point is that full ownership of Calvert is a very positive development for Assalamito. Calvert is the premier steelmaking facility in The United States and a cornerstone of our North America franchise. Achieved a new shipment record in the second quarter, 10% higher than the first quarter and 10% above the same period last year. Since 2014, Calvert has invested over £2,000,000,000 in improving its asset base and product portfolio.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

The biggest investment has been the new state of the art EAS, which is ramping up right now and could not have been better timed. Along with the new seven year domestic slab supply contract, Calvert's highest quality finished steel will meet US melted and pooled requirements. And we will continue to invest in US. Our project to build a new world class non grain oriented electrical steel facility in Alabama is well underway. This will be a billion dollar investment over the next few years with first production anticipated in 2027.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And then of course, we have the second EAF at Calvert, a decision on which will be taken as part of our next capital allocation cycle. My final point is on Europe, where we are transitioning to a more favorable market structure. We have the promise of a trade defense mechanism that protects the domestic industry and a carbon border that truly delivers a level playing field. A lot still needs to be actioned over the second half of this year. But if the European Commission delivers then our business should be in a far better position to deliver the margins and returns on capital it is capable of when not suppressed by unfair trade.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Added to this more favorable mix is the prospect of demand support from low interest rates and higher investment in defense and infrastructure. Our market position and product capabilities place Alethanol mittal favorably to capitalize on the opportunities these trends should create. Putting this all together, Assalambito is in a strong position, both operationally and financially. Our optimized asset portfolio is delivering structurally higher margins. And with the outlook supported by our strategic growth projects, this should continue.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

The value we are creating is being compounded by our share buybacks. Over the past four and a half years, we have bought back 38% of our equity. Each OcelorMittal share now represents a greater proportion of our capacity, a bigger share of our leading franchise businesses, a larger stake in our growth projects, and a greater ownership of our unique business in India. With that, Daniel, I believe we can start the Q and A.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great, thank you, Jemmina. Just to remind everybody, if you do want to join the queue to ask a question, please do press star one one on your telephone keypad. We do have a good queue in front of us already. And we will take the first question please from Alan at Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alain. Please go ahead and ask your question.

[Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley]

Hi.

[Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions, if I may. The first one is on the EBITDA building blocks into Q3 twenty twenty five. Can you walk us through the different moving parts, including the ASP in Europe and North America, the dollar impact of tariffs on North America and the power outage impact on Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico, if you don't mind? That's my first question. Thanks.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Thank you, Ola. So I will start with your second question on Mexico, then as usual, Daniel will walk you through the moving blocks. So in quarter two, as you can see, and as highlighted in our earnings, we faced operational issues with one of our transformers. So that impacted the production of our EIF. That has been restored.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

The EAF, as you know, that's our most important part the business as the flat business. So that is up and running again. Nevertheless, as we disclosed in our NDA of our NAFTA segment, we experienced $40,000,000 of losses because of the operational issues in quarter two. We have subsequently taken the decision to bring down the furnace that is producing for the long business for maintenance. And this furnace will most likely continue to be down for the next couple of months as we perform this maintenance.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So that's why, and then we will comment, we will continue to see shipments at same level as you see in quarter two coming from Mexico. So we will get back the shipments from flat, but then you will see a reduction in shipments because the furnace is down. But on quarter then shipments should be relatively stable for Mexico. Daniel, do you want to talk about the moving parts?

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Shimina. So I think what I'd like to do is just focus on the key moving parts and we can get into any of these in more detail as you wish, Alan. But I think as we look from the second quarter to the third quarter and the bridge between the two quarters, I think the first thing to be anticipating is the impact of normal seasonally lower volumes in the Europe segment. I think that's going to be the key driver for Europe performance quarter to quarter, normal seasonality of volumes.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Second factor to look out for is in the North America segment. Yes, we will see marginally higher tariff costs, Section two thirty two tariff costs, but that will be more than offset by the impacts of the Calvert consolidation. And then the third factor I would be looking out for in the Q2 to Q3 bridge is the impact of lower volumes in the mining segment because we did see some volume catch up in the second quarter and that won't then repeat into Q3. So mining volumes will sort of come down a little bit in Q3, but that should be the main impact in mining because so far quarter to date pricing is a little bit higher than last quarter. So those are the main three factors I would be thinking about in terms of the bridge from Q2 to Q3.

[Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. And the cost at Mexico, should we assume still same cost Q on Q or is there going to be an increase in the cost run rate because of the stoppage?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yes, that's a good reference, Sala. So, the $40,000,000 is a good reference.

[Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. Thank you. And my second question is on Calvert. So, we can see the path to being slab self sufficient in The U. S.

[Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley]

At Calvert in the medium term. But in the short term, you're still highly dependent on imported material for your slabs. How do you plan to mitigate the risk of tariffs should the current 50% level remain unchanged versus Mexico and Brazil? Would you be changing the flows? How would you change the mechanics of the business? Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Well, I think what is important Alliance as you know, well, I mean, we have the AIF that is ramping up, right? And then the new agreement that was signed with DuPont Steel and US Steel for a new slab supply agreement that will guarantee cover to what it needs in terms of melted and poor materials in The United States. And then of course, coverables do need to be importing slabs from either Brazil or Mexico. So we don't see that changing in the near future. But as you can see, I mean, a lot of the tariffs impact is kind of already captured in our Q2 results, right?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So as Daniel said, going forward, the increased incremental impact of tariffs is not so significant. And as you can see in the results of CALVERGE, it's really exceptional, right? So the run rate is getting very close to $900,000,000 So coverage is doing extremely well, record levels of shipments in quarter two. Where we really COVID is not really the concern. I think the concern at this point is really the flows from Canada through The U.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

S, right? That's where we see the biggest impact today.

[Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. Very clear.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks a lot. So we'll move to the next question, which we will take from Efraim at Citi. Hi, Efraim. Please go ahead.

[Ephrem Ravi, Managing Director at Citi]

Thanks. On the Calvert second EAF, you said in the next CapEx capital allocation cycle, would be considering. Could you be a bit more specific at the time of that? Is it 2026 or is it 2025? And the second question regarding your comment on record iron ore shipments from Liberia, I think it should be doing about 5,000,000 per quarter at full ramp up.

[Ephrem Ravi, Managing Director at Citi]

So it's and it looks like you're doing close to 3,000,000 tons in the second quarter. Is that correct? And how should we think about the contribution margin of the additional tons, I suppose, at $100 benchmark iron ore, you'll be getting about $80 per ton additional contribution margin given the cost basis relatively fixed. Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. So, as in the first part of your question, the second, think we have been very clear that that is something that we see as natural for the next step for COVID. We are advancing our studies and I'm sure we're going to be in a position to update you more. Most likely, I would say in our quarter four results. I'm not saying that there will be a decision at that point in time, but we are progressing our studies and this is something that just makes a lot of sense for us giving everything that we are seeing.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And then of course, as we have been discussing, a lot of investments have already been made in anticipation of the second year, right? So CapEx wise, it should also make sense to move forward with this. Timing wise, you're going need to bear with us for a little longer. In Liberia, our guidance for Liberia this year is 10,000,000 tonnes of shipments. So, can see that the run rate in H1 is about 8,000,000 tonnes.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So, we have commissioned the first line. So, it's the first line of the concentrate it's running. That's about 5,000,000 tons. So, and we're going to be commissioning the other two lines as we progress now in the second half. So in quarter three, the level of shipments that you're going to see is going to be largely the same.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

You're not going to see an increase in shipments in quarter three, but you're going to see already a changing mix. So, you're going to see more center feed concentrate being shipped out of Liberia and less DSO. And then in quarter four with the three lines running, then we're going to be at higher levels of shipments. And we are comfortable at this point that we're going to be achieving our 10,000,000 tons guidance. And then of course, with the new product, you should also expect that profitability will increase and we will detail that more as we talked about quarter three.

[Ephrem Ravi, Managing Director at Citi]

Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Efraim. So we will move now to take the next question from Boris Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead, Boris.

[Boris Bourdet, Equity Research Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

Hi. Hello. Thank you for taking my question. The first question would be on tariffs. I've read a headline where you were quoting estimating the impact of tariffs to EUR 150,000,000.

[Boris Bourdet, Equity Research Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux]

That means there is something like EUR 50,000,000 of mitigating measures. Can you share the way you mitigate those impacts? And just confirm that the impact in Q1 was around EUR $130,000,000 already? And regarding CapEx, just back to that question on the second EAF, how confident are you to maintain your CapEx envelope of EUR 4,500,000,000.0 to 5,000,000,000 over time? Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, sure. Yeah, I can confirm Boris. So in quarter two, we incurred about $140,000,000 in costs with Section two thirty two tariffs. As we discussed in Q1, the expectation was for this number to be lower, about $100,000,000 But of course, we had the increase in tariffs impacting us from June. What we have been doing really is, as you can imagine, the whole organization, the whole Canadian team, they have been doing a tremendous job looking for opportunities to mitigate the impacts.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And that's why we're confident here to guide for a number that is lower than otherwise we would have expected when we reported Q2 numbers. So that's the $150,000,000 So the net net from one quarter to the other, it's in the range of $10,000,000 right? So, and what we have been doing is, of course, discussing with our customers on sharing tariffs, looking at our cost base. So a significant amount of work being done there to make sure that we can continue to supply the OEMs. We, as you know, what we sell into The US is high value added materials, important not only for us, but also for our customers.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And that's our focus to make sure that we can maintain our market share with the OEMs and make sure that we can also generate a profit with these volumes. And then, sorry, there is a second part of your question, Boris. With the second half, how are comfortable that we can manage? Look, I mean, we are finishing this year a number of projects, right? So we guided for this year to spend between 1,300,000,000.0 and 1,500,000,000.0 with growth projects.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

But you should not forget that we're going to be completing this year Liberia, which has assumed a significant amount of the envelope. So we'll be completing some of the smaller projects in Brazil as well. So we're going to be making a room for new projects that I'm sure we're to be in a position to discuss together with our results in quarter four.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Boris. So, I think we'll move to the next question, which we'll be taking from Tom at Barclays.

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

Yes. Hi. Thanks for taking my Hi,

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

Yes. Hi. Sorry, I'm going have to come back to it. Just on tariffs one more time. Could you just to sort of check our understanding on why there's so little increase, I suppose, into Q3 even though from June, you've only had one month basically of 50% tariffs.

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

And you then had the consolidation of Calvert. So as I understand, you used to be sending about 2,000,000 tons of slab every year from mostly Brazil into the Calvert JV. Those costs used to be shared with Nippon, but now you're basically absorbing 100% of those costs. Are you basically just saying most of these tariff costs have just been passed on to customers and that's why you're not absorbing anymore? And is that true out of Calvert as well? That's the first question.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, look, as I said, I mean, would just reiterate, I think we have been working on mitigating these impacts, right? And as you can imagine, a lot of initiatives, a lot of discussions with our customers. So we are going to be sharing tariffs with customers as well. So that's why net net, the increase should not be so significant. That is not much

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

And our thought process around the slab movement, that's correct as well, right? You're now basically absorbing all of those slab tariff costs instead of sharing it with Nippon?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

That's right. Because now we have to so that's two things. Let's just make sure that we don't mix them. Right? One is the supply agreement with US steel facilities.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So that has nothing to do with supply within The United States. So there is no tariffs there. And then the tariffs, of course, will be applicable for imports from either Brazil or Mexico. But then as you can see, I mean, as we talked about, when you see the performance of COVID, you can see that it's actually the profitability of that facility is actually increasing. And I should remind you that even before the costs that of these labs that were being supplied to COVID, they were under our responsibility, under Salamita's responsibility.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And that's why we were capturing already part of the EBITDA in our segment, right? As we explained in our release, just to make sure that it's clear.

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

Yeah. Okay. Fair enough. And then second one, maybe just moving on to Europe. We've seen some attempted price hikes through Q3.

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

We're seeing a little bit of raw material cost inflation with iron ore and coking coal. Maybe just some color in general on what you're seeing in the European market at the moment. Are you seeing any sort of inventory build ahead of CBAM and safeguard replacements? Or are you seeing still quite a slow market? Just curious, how you see prices sort of developing in the second half? Thank you.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yes. Well, dynamics, I mean, we talked about the fact that demand in Europe at best has been moving sideways. We feel that and that remains a positive aspect that inventory levels in the system that we believe they continue to be low. What is interesting, of course, is the fact that we're going to have CBAM in whatever form kicking in from GYN and the promise of revised safeguards. So that creates different dynamics as well, right?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Because if you are importing material and given the long lead times, so you're going to start to worry about some of these factors, right? So that is positive for the domestic meals. But right now because of some of course activities are slow. But I think we are about to see in Europe, as I said at the beginning of my opening remarks, important developments, right? So we are all waiting to see really the actions that the commission will pass into legislation.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And it's encouraging. And also the agreement between US and Europe with regards to coming together to find ways to ring fence the industry against the biggest issue that we face today. That is, of course, the overcapacity in China, right? I think that is also something that, of course, we don't have yet the details, but the fact that the problem is acknowledged and there is a goodwill to try to address it, that should be extremely positive for our business.

[Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital]

Okay, clear. Thank you. I'll turn it back.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Tom. So, we'll move now to the next question, which we'll take from Dominic at JPMorgan. Hi, Dominic. Please go ahead.

[Dominic O'Kane, Executive Director, Mining Equity Research at JPMorgan Chase]

Thanks for taking my question. My questions also relate to Europe. So I just wondered if I could maybe push you a little bit more on safeguards in terms of what you would think would be acceptable for the industry as a whole? And I guess I'm also interested in the timing of the European Commission announcement with your recent indication that you're going to restart the volumes at Dunkirk. Could you just maybe give us some timing?

[Dominic O'Kane, Executive Director, Mining Equity Research at JPMorgan Chase]

That an expression of confidence in the market in the second half? And again, just really interested in a bit more detail on how you think about safeguards evolving in the months ahead.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, well, regarding safeguards, we and by we, I mean the industry through Eurofair, the request is that we limit through our quarters the level of imports to a market share that is more consistent with primaries, which is about 15% of the market share. Right? And that is the request. And as we know last year in 2024, the market share of imports were as high as 27%. Right?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So that is a significant if implemented, it will be a significant boost to utilization rates of the steel industry in Europe and will allow investments to happen. So that's going to be extremely positive for the industry in Europe. And then of course, the quota, then we believe that we should have also 50% of tariffs during what we have under Section two thirty two. Right? Coming to Dunkirk, Dunkirk was just a normal Reliant, which we completed during the second quarter.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We had built these slab inventories before, So you should not read into it. So we just completed the re line. We brought the furnace up and we are running again. So nothing really just normal business there.

[Dominic O'Kane, Executive Director, Mining Equity Research at JPMorgan Chase]

Okay. And then just second question, really helpful on the CapEx reiteration at the 4,500,000,000.0 to $5,000,000,000 But I guess in light of the question and your comments, could you maybe just give us again an updated comment on how you're thinking about decarbonization CapEx longer term in Europe at the present moment?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. Well, our expectation is that this is going to happen gradually, Dominique. This is a transition that will take the case to be completed. What we have indicated is that provided that we have the right policies in place, and by that we mean we have CBAM, we have effective trade protection, we have competitive power prices, then we are ready to invest, And we have indicated that we are prepared to move ahead with significant investment at Dunkirk with a large EIF. And that's what we would see going forward that we will progressively, provided that we have the conditions, to keep them investing in new EIS.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And I would remind you that, so we are investing today. So we are spending about $300,000,000 in GCAM projects. It happened we invested this amount in 2024, and we have a similar amount this year. So we are executing or building a new app in Spain, Gui Houle. We are investing in Sistal, so that's 1,600,000.0 tonnes EAF flat business.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So we are progressing. And then of course we should not forget the renewable investments. And I think as a company we are well placed. We have the DRI facilities. We are one of the largest producers in the world.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So I think we believe that we are progressing quite well.

[Dominic O'Kane, Executive Director, Mining Equity Research at JPMorgan Chase]

Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks Dominic. So we'll move now to the next question, which we're going to take from Max at ODDO. Please go ahead, Max.

[Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF]

Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So I have a first question. It's on the HBI unit in Texas. Can you shed more light on your procurement there?

[Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF]

Because I understand a lot comes from Brazil and it's now taxed at 50%. So are you able to shift the sourcing or are you facing some extra costs there?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Sebastian. Well, we have the flexibility marks because we can also bring materials from our own mines in Canada, right? But I believe that, to be honest, I believe that it has been included on the list of exemptions. I have to double check to be 100% sure, but that was my reading came out yesterday, right? So I need to confirm that, but I think that was because pig iron is now for sure not.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

I think, I don't know, it's also Daniel, unless you have some more.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

No, that's the case, Jeremy. But I think these things can change. So it's important, your first point, to have that flexibility that should something change that we can source from a different mine within our own system and that would be Canada.

[Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF]

Okay. So that's clear. Second question is on M and A. So, Clevencliffe has put up a for sale sign in its latest results call. So I know you don't like to comment on specific targets, but how are you thinking of further expansion in The U.

[Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF]

S. Notably to address the mismatch you currently have in terms of organic versus M and A?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yes, you're right. So we don't really comment on M and A. I would just say that US is and has always been a very important market for the company. Right? And as you can see, our investments covered the new electrical steels plant that we are investing.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So we do have the ambition to keep growing in The United States and we have plans in place and being developed. But more specifically on M and A, I'm not going to be able to comment.

[Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF]

Okay, fair enough. And just the last one, it's on India. So you're flagging again your ambition there to grow even more, not at least for a new greenfield facility, but at the same time, we are seeing prices in India quite depressed at just a few tens of dollars of premium to the Chinese market. So wouldn't it be wiser to wait to have, I mean, better credit defense system there to potentially start new investments because clearly the 12% of safeguard tariffs we've had for a few months are not enough.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, I think the industry would agree with you. And I think the meals are mobilized. Look, I mean, we have to look beyond this. Right? And structurally, the Indian market is very attractive.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Right? So it's highly concentrated. It's a market that is growing 78% every year. And if you want to continue to be relevant in that market and you want to keep your markets increase your markets, so you have to grow with the market. And as you can see in our results this quarter as well, the results already doubled, so back to 200 plus million.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

You can argue that yet not enough, it's and we have not yet seen the benefits of some of these investments that we talked about, the downstream. So our automotive complex is going to decommission part of it now and towards the second half of the year. So we'll continue to improve the mix of products that we're going to be able to offer in the Indian market. So we remain very excited about the opportunities provided by Indian market. Right now the focus is on completing the expansion in Azirah and of course prepare the ground for future expansion.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

As you know, this is a long process in India and it's important that we continue to work so that we can when the moment is right to move forward.

[Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF]

Okay, very clear. Thanks. Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Max. So we'll move now to take the next question from Andy at UBS. Hi, Andy. Please go ahead.

[Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Thank you. Can you hear me okay?

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Yes.

[Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Cool. Excellent. Just to follow-up on M and A, no specific targets, but obviously the net debt after Calvert is now back above $8,000,000,000 you used to sort of talk about a $7,000,000,000 target, albeit obviously the business is very different now. I mean, how are you thinking about leverage more broadly around the potential for further M and A? I mean, does this rule out large scale M and A, things like Valorac or I mean, the Cliffs, I mean, we're not being specific. I mean, are you thinking you can do something large or are we talking like potentially small incremental stuff from here or, you know, just focusing on some of your organic growth projects, are obviously pretty numerous in your portfolio? How are you thinking about that more big picture?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, well, can say that we have a good pipeline of projects that we can execute organically, right? So that has been the focus, continues to be the focus. And specifically on, and I should also say that our message on Vallorec remains the same, right? So we are happy with the performance of the company. We are happy with our stake.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We have no intention there to increase it. When it comes to the debt, billion. First of all, I think we feel very comfortable. As I'm sure you have seen, we were just upgraded by S and P, right? BBB flat.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So showing the progress, all the progress that we have been discussing acknowledged by the rating agencies as well. And we should not forget that with these investments, M and A, we are adding significant amount of extra EBITDA to the business. Right? You've seen our bridge in our debt. So this year, 700,000,000 of extra EBITDA coming from projects, but also M and A.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So that's how we are looking at, so very comfortable with the capital structure of the company.

[Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Okay. And just one other follow-up on the settlement that you put into one of the one offs for the EBIT in the quarter, this Votorantin. When do you actually expect to make sort of cash payments on that settlement and how's that phased?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

It will happen over three years.

[Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Okay. And it's So

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

that is one down payment and then divided by four, have one on signing and three other payments in three years. So it's going to happen over three years.

[Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group]

Okay. And that's in line with the EBIT loss that you booked on that settlement, right, In cash.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

EBITDA loss. Well, actually, if you look at the footnote, you're gonna see that the amount is 500. Right? And then what you see in our P and L is the difference because we had already some provisions. So that's why you see a delta between the P and L and the footnote, but that's about $100,000,000 So the settlement is $500,000,000 Okay.

[Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group]

That's clear. Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great. Thanks, Andy. So we have time for two or three more questions. So the first we're gonna take from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

Yes. Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is actually on your project pipeline. I saw in the footnote that there are some projects which are delayed.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

And I was wondering if this is purely due to permitting. Is this also a response to the current environment? And are there any further shifts or delays which you currently at least looking at? Maybe you could also give us an update on the EBITDA cadence. I think the chart here in the presentation deck seems to be changed.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

So there must be something which is compensating for the delay there. That's my first one.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah. So, basically, you have a Mardic in North Of France, that's the electrical steel project there, Sebastian. And as we write there, every time you have a brownfield, you always face, you know, the risk that you can, you may find out something that you could not have anticipated. That's one of the reasons. And then in Mexico, in one of the mine was to show so it was the delays primarily because of licenses that delayed some of the moving of the equipments.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

But these are not very significant movements, I would say. They are quite minor. So that's why you don't really see a significant, any important change in the beta bridge coming from projects and M and A. Daniel, anything to

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

I would only reinforce those points, I mean, no. So, yeah, no further additional comments.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

And no other projects which you're currently looking to move just given the current economic environment, I guess?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

No. Not at all. And I and I think that's that's a good point because despite the the challenging market conditions, we feel that the company is very well positioned, right, to move forward with the projects. And as we talked about, this year we're going to be completing a number of projects, right? And then as you can see, then we're going to have another significant pickup in EBITDA also in 2026.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So we want just to keep that momentum. And on the contrary, you should see us announcing more projects as we talked about in our Q4 results.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. Got you. Then my second one is on your Brazilian slab strategy. I guess a few years ago, you obviously bought CSP, which is basically a slab business. You still have Sierra Victoria, which is basically long slabs used to supply both, I guess, into Calvert or into The U.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

S. And North American market. Now given that there is obviously a pretty long list of capacity projects in The U. S. At the moment, I mean, you've just built like the 1,500,000 tonne EF, you're talking about a second one.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

What's going to be your strategy here for the Brazilian slab capacity where you're still long?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yes. Well, I think that's a good question, Larsen. And we are very well positioned in the Brazilian market. So first of all, I think it's important to acknowledge that Brazil is growing, right? So the flat demand is growing and it will continue to grow.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And we are well positioned because we have the crude steel capacity, right? So we don't need to invest in developing or building a new upstream. So we have, so if you look at some of our competitors there, that's the real differential that we have to grow with that market, right? So that's one of the possibilities that we have. And we should not forget also that the Sen and Tuparan, produce some of the highest quality slabs in the world.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Right? You're not going to find that quality of slab everywhere. So we feel that we're going to be always in a position to market the volumes that we have from there.

[Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, very clear. Thanks so much.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Bastian. So we'll move now to the next question, which we're going to take from Tristan at BNP Hexane. Hi Tristan.

[Tristan Gresser, Head - Steel Equity Research at Exane]

Yes, hi. Thank you for squeezing me in. Just two. The first one on China, what is your take on the recent official commentary on potential capacity restructuring? I mean, do you believe a significant capacity cuts like in 2015, 2016 are really on the table?

[Tristan Gresser, Head - Steel Equity Research at Exane]

And also you kept a stable demand outlook for the year in China despite what I think was pretty weak H1. So what are you baking in into H2 and why would you have a more constructive setup for H2? That'd be my first question.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Do you want to take that one, Daniel?

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, absolutely. So I think relative to our expectations at the beginning of the year. So yes, in China, they're obviously seeing some export impacts from the reciprocal tariffs environment, but they are finding opportunities, obviously new export opportunities and then domestically demand is being supported by the infrastructure spend and efforts to stimulate domestic consumption. So that's the reason why we've not significantly changed our projections for Chinese demand relative to what we'd published back in February. I think on the prospect of capacity reform, obviously this is something that we have been championing, something that it's very obvious that this needs to occur.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

China has a capacity imbalance. It's leading to very depressed profitability within the domestic industry. It's leading to aggressive exports at very low pricing and as we talked about in previous questions, it is a significant source of unfair competition for the rest of the global industry. So reform needs to happen and your question obviously is will it happen and over what sort of timeframe. All the statements that we've read over the last couple of months would give you encouragement that things will improve.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

I think if you look at the recent production statistics, it would suggest that things can improve. However, exports do remain very elevated and I think the only thing that we can really be looking out for is this ring fencing that Jim We know talked about previously. That's what's required. We can't assume that China will reform its industry in due course and therefore the other regions need to appropriately ring fence their industries to make sure that they're not damaged by that excess capacity and unfair trade.

[Tristan Gresser, Head - Steel Equity Research at Exane]

All right. That's helpful. Thank you. And my second question is just going back to the steel action plan. There's been a specific proposal to cut quotas by 40, 50%.

[Tristan Gresser, Head - Steel Equity Research at Exane]

Do you think there's a real probability that the European Commission will take such action? How confident are you? Basically, is different this time in your conversation with the Commission? For instance, if we look at it, I mean, the fact that Germany was not part of the recent proposal could indicate that there is not a united front from all the member states. Any color there that'd be great.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Tristan, I think we can only wait, right? And see finally what what comes out. Of course, we are engaged through our association. So we are in very close dialogue with the authorities, governments, the commission, encouraging. France published recently a position paper in which they also defend these levels of quotas, right?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

But I agree with you, in Europe, it's challenging. That's why we have to really wait and see and see what finally gets converted into legislation, right? And I guess we will know very soon. I mean, the promise is to deliver the new proposal after summer. So I think we should know relatively soon.

[Tristan Gresser, Head - Steel Equity Research at Exane]

All right, thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Thanks, Tristan. So, we'll move to our last question, which we will take from Matt at Goldman Sachs. Hi, Matt. Please go ahead.

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in there. My first question is just on India. Encouraging to see those tariffs in April positively contribute to your margins. And I have to say the quarter uplift is quite impressive.

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

So my question is what was the exit margin at the end of the quarter on a per tonne basis, if you happen to have that to hand? And how should we think about it the go forward in light of both the tariffs and commissioning of the downstream value added products?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So I'm not sure that I got the first part of the question, Daniel.

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Would you like me to repeat? Yes, sure. Okay. My question was just the margins that you've seen, the quarter on quarter uplift in India has been quite impressive. So the question is just what was your exit margin at the June?

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

And then how should we think about the go forward just given the effect of the tariff but also the commissioning of the downstream?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Matt, perhaps I talked about the moving parts there, right, in a little bit more detail. So moving forward, I mean, quarter three, and I think it will address your first part of your question. So our expectation is for profitability to be largely stable compared to what you see in quarter two, right, which I think addresses some of your points, stable. And the downstream really, I mean, course, there will be a good contribution in terms of extra margin, right, that we're going to be able to print. But more importantly, we'll open up a new avenue in terms of product offering in the market, right?

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

So both us and Nippon, as you know, Alto is a franchise of our companies and it's a market that we're going to be able then to address strongly once we complete these investments. And as you know, I mean, these are profitable products. So I will not get into specifics, but just to give you a flavor of the importance of completing these projects for the future of the profitability AMN SI. Daniel, if you have anything to add because you were there recently as well.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Yeah, absolutely, Gemini. So it is an important part. When we took investors to India to see the expansion of the capacity and the new value add capacity that you were just talking about. I think this is all a very important part of the transformation of the business. So as we go from the current capacity, as we add the two new blast furnaces, we add the coat capacity, we add the new finishing capabilities, higher the value product opportunities and this will really transform the profitability of our business in India.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

So you shouldn't think that the doubling of capacity will double profitability. Really you should think that the doubling of capacity underway will add 150% to the normalized profitability and a lot of that additional profitability will come through this higher added value product mix.

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

That's helpful. Thank you. And my last question is just on cover. Congrats on the first slab. How should we think about the ramp up from here to the 1,500,000 tonnes by mid twenty twenty six?

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

And if you can give any color sort of on the margin uplift alongside that ramp up. Thanks.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Yes. I mean, we talked about, I think it was in the previous quarter, Amit. So it should take us about a year to get to full capacity there, right? So we had a couple of weeks of delays to have the first slab casted. So our expectation is to get to the end of the year with a run rate in the range of 60%.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And then from there, we will continue to ramp up. So by end of second quarter next year, we should be at full capacity.

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

That's great. Thank you.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great. And then what we perhaps just to add in terms of the margin profitability, if you think about the cost of the EAF, it should be very similar to the Brazil slab cost. So when you think about the impact on our business, that should be a pretty good guide for you.

[Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Thanks, Daniel.

[Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance at ArcelorMittal]

Great. So that was our last question, Germino. So over to back to you.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Okay. Thank you everyone. Before we close, I want to reiterate my messages from the beginning of the call. First and foremost, our results continue to show structural improvements and this is expected to continue. Secondly, our North America franchise is well positioned.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

We now own 100% of culvert, the best steel facility in The US. This is the cornerstone of our franchise and the new EAF together with the new slab supply agreement to ensure we meet melted and pooled requirements. Third, we are transitioning to a more favorable market structure in Europe. If the European Commission delivers a new trade defense mechanism and an effective C band, then our business can flourish. And AcelorMittal is well positioned to capitalise on the opportunities created by defence and infrastructure investments.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

And finally, to repeat what I have said in recent calls, returning capital to shareholders at the bottom of the cycle, while continuing to invest in growth is clear evidence of the progress that Salamitro has made and demonstrates that our company can deliver value through all aspects of this suicide. With that said, I will close today's call. And if you need anything further, please do reach out to Daniel and his team. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Wish you all a happy summer.

[Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO at ArcelorMittal]

Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

Participants

Executives

• Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations & VP of Corporate Finance
• Genuino Christino, EVP & CFO

Analysts

• Alain Gabriel, Research Analyst - Metals, Mining & Cement at Morgan Stanley
• Ephrem Ravi, Managing Director at Citi
• Boris Bourdet, Equity Research Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux
• Tom Zhang, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays Capital
• Dominic O'Kane, Executive Director, Mining Equity Research at JPMorgan Chase
• Maxime Kogge, Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF
• Andrew Jones, Executive Director at UBS Group
• Bastian Synagowitz, Equity Research - Global Coordinator at Deutsche Bank
• Tristan Gresser, Head - Steel Equity Research at Exane
• Matt Greene, Head - European Metals & Mining Equity Research at Goldman Sachs