Howmet Aerospace Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 31, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Revenue and EBITDA beat guidance: Q2 sales rose 9% year-over-year to $2.53 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 22% to €589 million and margins widening 300 bps to 28.7%.
  • Positive Sentiment: Record free cash flow of $344 million enabled $175 million in share repurchases this quarter (totaling $300 million H1) and a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.12.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management raised full-year targets: revenue by $100 million to $8.13 billion; EBITDA by $70 million to $2.32 billion; EPS by $0.20 to $3.60; and free cash flow by $75 million to $1.225 billion.
  • Positive Sentiment: Stepped-up CapEx (up ~60% YoY in H1) is funding new turbine airfoil and IGT capacity, with facilities in Michigan, Tennessee, Japan, and Europe slated to drive growth from 2026 into 2027.
  • Negative Sentiment: Commercial transportation remained weak, with segment revenues down 4% in Q2 and Wheels volumes declining 11%, pressuring that division’s near-term performance.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Howmet Aerospace Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Paul Luther
Paul Luther
VP of Investor Relations at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you, Megan. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session. I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings. In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income, and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, adjusted operating income excluding special items, and adjusted EPS excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion.

Paul Luther
Paul Luther
VP of Investor Relations at Howmet Aerospace

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you, PT, and welcome everyone. The results for the second quarter were strong. Revenue growth increased 9% year-over-year compared to 6% in the first quarter, and the revenue broke through $2 billion-$2.53 billion and exceeded the high end of guidance. The revenue growth enabled us to carry out the costs of the additional headcount as we prepare for the new capacity coming on at the end of 2025, notably for turbine airfoils and the industrial gas turbines build-out during 2026-2027. EBITDA margins were healthy at 28.7%, up 300 basis points year-over-year, which was excellent given the significant sequential revenue and EBITDA growth. EBITDA was $589 million. Free cash flow was also healthy at $344 million. This cash flow enabled share repurchases of $175 million in the quarter to total $300 million in the first half, with an additional $100 million already completed in July.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Additionally, debt repayment was $76 million. We also announced an increase in the common stock dividend to $0.12 per quarter starting in August. This is a 20% increase quarter-over-quarter, which builds on the significant increases in 2023-2024. Lastly, earnings per share was $0.91, an increase of 36% year-over-year. In terms of business segment commentary, Forged Wheels continues to do well with a 27.5% margin, a slight increase on the first quarter. Additionally, Engineered Structures printed another solid quarter with EBITDA margins above 20%, the exact number being 21.4%. Lastly, Howmet incrementals were above 60% year-over-year. I'll now pass the call to Ken to comment specifically on market sector performance and provide business segment commentary.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. In the deck, you'll notice that we've added slide five, which gives you a quick snapshot of the first half of performance. We're going to move to slide six now to talk about the markets. End markets continue to be healthy, with total revenue up 9% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. Commercial aerospace was up 8%, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares. Commercial aerospace growth is further supported by the record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions. Defense Aerospace growth continued to be robust, printing record quarterly revenue of $352 million, which was up 21%. Growth was driven by engine spares, new engine builds, and F-35 structures. As we expected, commercial transportation was challenging, with revenue down 4% in the second quarter, including the pass-through of higher aluminum costs. On a volume basis, Wheels volume was down 11%.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

Although down year-over-year, the Wheels team did an excellent job to flex costs and deliver strong EBITDA margin of 27.5%. Finally, the industrial and other markets were up a healthy 17%, driven by oil and gas up 26% and IGT up 25%. Within Howmet's markets, the combinations of spares for Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, IGT, and oil and gas continues to accelerate and was up 40% in the second quarter and represented 20% of total revenue. As a compare, total spares in 2019 was 11% of total revenue on a smaller base. In summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, and industrial, partially offset by commercial transportation. Let's move to slide seven. As usual, we'll start with the P&L. Q2 revenue, EBITDA, and earnings per share were all records and exceeded the high end of guidance. Revenue was up 9% year-over-year, exceeding $2 billion.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

EBITDA outpaced revenue growth of 22%. EBITDA margin increased 300 basis points to 28.7%, while absorbing the costs of approximately 400 net headcount additions. Earnings per share was $0.91, which was up a healthy 36% year-over-year. Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Quarter-end cash balance was healthy at $546 million. Free cash flow was excellent at $344 million, which was a record for the second quarter. Free cash flow included the acceleration of capital expenditures, with approximately $100 million invested in the quarter and $220 million invested in the first half, which is up approximately 60% year-over-year. About 70% of the first-half CapEx investment was in our engines business as we continue to invest for growth in Commercial Aerospace and IGT, which is backed by customer contracts.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

Debt continues to be reduced, and we paid down an additional $76 million of our U.S. term loan, which is due in November of 2026. The paydown will reduce annualized interest expense drag by approximately $4 million. Net debt to trailing EBITDA continues to improve to a record low of 1.3 x. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates. Regarding liquidity, it remains strong with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver, complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program, both of which have not been utilized. Regarding capital deployment, we deployed $292 million of cash to common stock repurchases, debt paydown, and quarterly dividends. In the quarter, we repurchased $175 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $142 per share. Q2 was the 17th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

The average diluted share count improved to a record Q2 exit rate of 406 million shares. Additionally, in July, we repurchased $100 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $183 per share. July year-to-date common stock repurchases is $400 million at an average price of approximately $144 per share. Remaining authorization from the board of directors for share repurchases is approximately $1.8 billion as of the end of July. Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. We have announced an increase in the Q3 quarterly stock dividend by 20%, from $0.10 per share to $0.12 per share payable this August. Now let's move to slide eight to cover the segment results for the second quarter. The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

Quarterly revenue broke through the $1 billion mark with an increase of 13% to $1.056 billion. Commercial aerospace was up 9%, and Defense Aerospace was up 13%, both driven by engine spares growth. Both oil and gas and IGT were up approximately 25%. Demand continues to be strong across all of our engines markets with record engine spares volume. EBITDA margin outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 20% to $349 million. EBITDA margin increased 170 basis points year-over-year to a record 33%, while absorbing approximately 360 net new employees in the quarter. Year-to-date, Engines has invested in approximately 860 incremental headcount, which has a near-term margin drag but positions us well for the future. Now let's move to slide nine. The Fastening Systems team also delivered a strong quarter. Revenue increased 9% to $431 million. Commercial aerospace was up 18%. Defense Aerospace was up 19%.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

General industrial was down 11%, and commercial transportation, which represents about 13% of Fastening Systems' revenue, was down 18%. Segment EBITDA continues to outpace revenue growth with an increase of 25% to $126 million, despite the sluggish recovery of wide-body aircraft builds, along with weakness in commercial transportation. EBITDA margin increased a healthy 360 basis points year-over-year to 29.2% after taking into account the impact of delayed tariff recovery. The team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational performance while flexing costs in the industrial and commercial transportation businesses. Now let's move to slide 10. Engineered Structures performance continues to improve. Revenue increased 5% to $290 million. Commercial Aerospace was down 6% due to destocking and product rationalization, and was essentially flat sequentially. Defense Aerospace was up 49%, primarily driven by the end of the destocking of the F-35 program.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

Segment EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 55% to $62 million, despite the modest recovery of wide-body aircraft. EBITDA margin increased 690 basis points to 21.4% as we continue to optimize the Structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability. Finally, let's move to slide 11. Forged Wheels' revenue was down slightly despite higher aluminum costs. Excluding metal impacts, volume was down 11%. The Wheels team flexed costs to hold EBITDA to prior year levels and delivered strong EBITDA margin of 27.5%. Lastly, before turning it back to John, I wanted to highlight an additional item. We're reviewing the new tax legislation from the U.S. administration related to the timing of expensing of R&D and CapEx. We expect to have a modest free cash flow benefit in 2025, which will be used to fund additional CapEx investments.

Ken Giacobbe
Ken Giacobbe
EVP and CFO at Howmet Aerospace

The modest benefit has been included in our increased free cash flow guide. With that, let me turn it back over to John.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you, Ken. Let's move to slide 12. Firstly, Commercial Aerospace is expected to continue to grow. Q2 growth was 8% after some further destocking in certain product areas. This growth starts with passenger miles flown, which has been solid in Europe, a relatively higher growth in Asia-Pacific, while flat in North America. Aircraft backlogs are extraordinarily high due to prior period underbills and the need for modern fuel and emissions-efficient aircraft to replace the increasingly aged fleet. There have been positive signs for narrow-body builds, with Boeing achieving a recent 38 per month build rate for the 737 MAX. We also believe Airbus has achieved 60 builds per month for the A320/321, with some 60 A320s being gliders at this stage awaiting engines. Wide-body builds have not increased substantially in the second quarter, but are expected to go a little higher in the fourth quarter and going into 2026.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

The underlying 737 MAX assumption within our guidance today is raised from 28 per month average for the year-33 per month average for the year and supports a higher expected revenue, which I'll comment on later. Spares for Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, and IGT/industrial have increased by some 40% year-over-year and were at 20% of total revenue. This result is positive, with a continued first-half rate of it being 20% of total revenue currently. Defense revenue was up 21% and is seen to continue to exhibit this strength during the balance of year. IGT, oil and gas, and industrial strength in the quarter was exceptional at 17%, with IGT up some 25%. Growth for the combined IGT, oil and gas, and industrial markets is expected to be high single digits for the year, and within the combined number, the IGT market is expected to be significantly higher.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Moving to commercial transportation, within our wheel segment, revenue was below 2024 by only 1%. However, metals and tariff recovery are now included in that number. Volume was down 11%, with continued softness expected in the second half. In terms of general outlook, we expect to see continued strength in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, IGT, oil and gas, and with an offset only in the commercial truck segment, which continues throughout this year. In 2026, the commercial truck market should stabilize, and hence the overall picture for Howmet currently appears to be healthy. In terms of specific guidance, we see the third quarter as follows: revenue $2.03 billion, ± $10 million; EBITDA $580 million, ± $5 million; EPS at $0.90, ± $0.01. Q3 reflects the normal seasonality of lower European selling days due to annual vacations. The year's full guidance has been increased.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Revenue has been increased by $100 million-$8.13 billion, ± $50 million. EBITDA has been increased $70 million-$2.32 billion, ± $20 million. Earnings per share has been increased by $0.20-$3.60, ± $0.04. Free cash flow has been increased $75 million-$1.225 billion, ± $50 million. Revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin have been increased above the second-quarter beat. The higher revenue expectation is supported by both an increased spares expectation and the higher Boeing 737 MAX rate assumption. Full-year incrementals continue to be healthy at the mid-50%, with the second half in the mid-40%. The increased cash flow guidance includes an increase in our capital expenditure guidance to invest in future revenue growth, with modest expected benefits from the new tax legislation.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

It is encouraging to see our guide increase, especially the free cash flow guide, which provides even further optionality for capital deployment. With that, we'll now move to your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then two. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question only. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Myles Walton
Myles Walton
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

Thanks. Good morning.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Good morning [crosstalk].

Myles Walton
Myles Walton
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

I was wondering [crosstalk] if, John, you can comment on the rationalization of products within Engineered Structures. How meaningful is that? Is it going to be to the margins as well as maybe any headwind to departing from some lines of businesses or products?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

The majority of the rationalization has already occurred on this one, Myles. If you go back to commentary provided in the two prior earnings calls, I mentioned the sale of one business within Engineered Structures and also the closure of another manufacturing plant, which was in Europe. Those two, combined with us probably possibly being a little bit more discerning on order intake, has enabled us to continue the momentum on improved margins. The way I see it is that revenues continue to be healthy and grow, and margins have solidified. I quite like, again, the state and conversation doing a revenue increase and margin enhancement, which has played well for the company.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

The total revenue, which in our Engineered Structures was certainly healthy from Defense Aerospace side, less so from the Commercial Aerospace side, but that was essentially due to some destocking, particularly in the distribution markets, where some orders had been cut. I think Boeing in particular decided to do some destocking throughout their supply chain. I'm not expecting significant further rationalizations, but we always remain alert for anything where, if it doesn't really contribute in a significant way to improving the business, then we'll always take a hard look at it.

Myles Walton
Myles Walton
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

Should we expect the margins seen year to date to persist for the second half within Engineered Structures at these new levels?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Our goal for the second quarter was to achieve it. I will say, yes, we did achieve it. My expectation is that we'll hopefully maintain where we are. That would be a pretty significant increase year-on-year. You'll see from the guide that we've maintained our margin outlook of EBITDA above 28%. That assumes that we'll achieve that objective.

Myles Walton
Myles Walton
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

All right. Thanks.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director at Jefferies

Good morning, John and Ken. Crazy good results. Can you hear me, by the way? My voice is a little hoarse.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Yeah, no, I can hear you well.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director at Jefferies

Okay, thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

By the way [crosstalk], thank you for the compliment. Hey, Kyle, I like the word crazy good.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director at Jefferies

Yes. Very good. If you could update us on the timing of maybe the revenue contributions from the various engine expansions you've announced across Aero and IGT, as it seems like CapEx is increasing and pulling forward, is it fair to think, unlike other companies, profitability on day one? Are those sites diluted to the segment? How do we think about pricing, expected volumes, and just what are the key pacing items for those coming online?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Okay. We've got two complete new plants, which are being or have been built in the Engine segment, and two significant extensions. That's a lot of square footage that we've been putting in place. The first plant that we have essentially completed now in terms of the construction and equipment that has been arriving is in our Michigan facilities. I'm expecting some outputs from that, that's saleable output, in the fourth quarter of the year going into 2026. I think that's going to be important for us, particularly in the turbine airflows market. That's supported by the extension that we have done in one of our Tennessee plants. That covers that one. The other two are aimed at the industrial gas turbine (IGT) market. These are for the large industrial gas turbines rather than the aero derivatives.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

That is a brand new manufacturing plant in Japan, for which construction will not be completed until the end of this calendar year. Facilitization will be in the first quarter, probably going into the second quarter of 2026, and therefore hoped-for outputs in the second half of 2026. There's also an extension of our plants in Europe, again, with similar timeframes, with the expansion and capitalization in terms of assets, which can produce parts really into the second half of 2026, and then with them both coming on full bore for 2027. That gives the picture across, say, the aerospace business and the gas turbine business. Quite a lot going on, Sheila.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director at Jefferies

How do we think about the profitability profile of those coming online?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

I'm expecting that. Any cost that we incur, and we've been incurring costs each quarter, you've seen another headcount increase in the second quarter of just under 400 net new jobs into our Engine business. Clearly, we're carrying those employees today and essentially training and getting ready for production. The drag associated with that has really been offset by the leverage of the increased volumes. It's working out. I'm hopeful that as those things, in terms of launch costs, smooth out as we go into 2026, particularly in the second half and in 2027, those can really get better and enable us to hopefully produce an improved outlook for the business, which is also, I'd say, pretty high today. That's the expectation.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

It's a combination of, hopefully, reduced labor cost drag and also less production of scrap, because obviously, people are still training and using materials, which then don't get sold at this current stage.

Sheila Kahyaoglu
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Managing Director at Jefferies

Got it. Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steph Stevens with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Operator

Hey, thanks very much. Good morning, everyone.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Good morning, sir.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Good morning. John, you talked about the strength in the defense and market this quarter and expect continued strength going forward. If you could talk a little bit about the contribution of F-35 in defense overall this year and how you think about setting up for the future in F-35, given some concerns about future production rates.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Yeah. This year, I'd point to just on the F-35, I think generally the defense business has been strong with the legacy programs as well. Specifically for the F-35, we've received, I think, two volume inputs which have been quite welcome. One is that we appear to have arrived at a tipping point when our spares business for our engine products exceeds the OE production. That, which we've been talking about, would happen in 2025 for the last two-three years. It looks as though that moment has arrived. With the increased build, let's assume 150 aircraft per year for the next few years through the end of the decade, the fleet will continue to expand from its 1,000,-1,100 to maybe 2,000 aircraft. Therefore, again, we see increasing contributions coming for that spares business as we go forward.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

The second input to the F-35 volume has been during 2023-2024. I noted that our bulkhead provision from our Structures business, we were receiving input orders well below the Lockheed production rate as inventory was burnt off from the, I'll say, excess supply relative to their COVID-impaired builds back in 2020-2021. As that inventory was depleted, we're now running at a one-to-one rate, we believe, relative to Lockheed's production. We are also optimistic that with the large input of new orders that have been there into Lockheed for the, I'll say, international programs for that fighter aircraft, we'll see solid 150 per year rates through to the end of the decade and beyond.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Excellent. Thank you very much.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays. Please go ahead.

David Strauss
David Strauss
Managing Director at Barclays

Thank you. Good morning.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Hey, David.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Hey, John. I think you talked about your forecast for MAX for the year. If you wouldn't mind running through your assumptions on your other key programs, 87, 350, and so on. A quick one for Ken, just if you could quantify, Ken, the amount of the tariff drag in Q2. Thanks.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Okay. In terms of underlying assumptions, the major shift from previous commentary was that MAX shift from the average of 28 per month for the year to 33. That basically assumes that Boeing will consistently maintain rate 38 for the balance of the year, having come off a significantly lower rate in the early part of the year. The 787 should be around six average for the year with us moving to a rate seven, I think, in the second half. Sometime, I'll say, during the third quarter or by end of third quarter, achieving a solid rate seven on a consistent basis. On A350, it's the same six till we understand more about some of the relief of the fuselage constraints there.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

The other bright spots, which is not really confused at this stage, is while A320, the builds have been solid, we're still unclear about whether [stack] build will be maintained. That's also really subject to the supply of engines because of the state of aircraft, the quantity of aircraft with no engines at this point in time. That covers the major part of it. I'll cover tariffs rather than break the call up. We gave you some metrics around the gross and net effect of 80 and 50 on the last call. Since then, tariff drag, we think, has probably gotten better. If we asked to name it today, we'd be going a net effect below 15. Again, as I said, it wasn't going to be material for our year. If it was reduced, which it is, it is not significant. That's been good.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Tariff drag for the second quarter, which is probably the biggest quarter of drag, but again, can't be sure that everything's sorted out, was below $5 million. Significantly below $5 million in the quarter. That essentially was down to timing of us incurring the cost and us receiving compensation from our customers.

David Strauss
David Strauss
Managing Director at Barclays

Great. Thanks, John.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Doug Harned
Doug Harned
Analyst at Bernstein

Good morning. Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Good morning [crosstalk].

Doug Harned
Doug Harned
Analyst at Bernstein

Industrial is now the fastest growing part of Engine products. Is the accelerated growth you're looking at, how does that depend on getting long-term agreements in place, such as with Mitsubishi? Basically, where do you stand on this process, and ultimately, how do you expect IGT margins to compare with those in commercial Aero?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Okay. Let's do the margin one first. IGT and Aero are very comparable in terms of margins, so there's no dilution at all from that. Currently, relatively high growth rate that we see, so that's encouraging. In terms of agreements, we now have agreements with, I'll say, three of the four majors and completing with the other one in terms of the gas turbine area, the big gas turbines. We've also just completed agreement with, let's call it the not Aeroderivatives, but something like that with gas turbines in the up to 35-38 megawatt type of output. Business in Aeroderivatives is also very strong.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

It's sometimes a little bit hard for us to truly understand when we receive the orders which is designated for oil and gas or Aeroderivatives, and then those derivatives going to whether it's the, I'll say, marine market or other military bases or oil and gas or indeed IGT. The growth rate of Aeroderivative-type of size of turbines is certainly becoming very significant. The way we see it, it's going to be a really important part of data center build-out of energy supply over the next few years.

Doug Harned
Doug Harned
Analyst at Bernstein

Is there any way to say, when you structure these agreements, how soon that growth will come from an individual agreement?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Yeah. From an individual agreement, we know pretty well the growth that we'll see. Obviously, it's always dependent upon the complete supply chain. It's not just what Howmet does in terms of vision of the turbine airfoils. Assuming that everybody's on stream for those programming, those new product introductions, then we have a pretty good idea of when the increased requirements are there. Essentially, it lines up with my commentary that I provided earlier in the call, Doug, where we're putting capacity in, and we're seeing increments of that capacity currently, with the majority of it to come on stream really second half of 2026 and into 2027. There's no major step function this year for sure by way of capacity because when we stepped it up last year, it takes a full 12-18 months for us to be gone.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

We've been, as you can see from our CapEx numbers, increasing that significantly as we've been moving through 2025, and that takes time to deploy. We kicked it up again by some $40 million by way of expectation for this year. It's a significant outlay that we believe will give us good results and good growth into the future.

Doug Harned
Doug Harned
Analyst at Bernstein

Very good. Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Robert Stallard
Robert Stallard
Partner at Vertical Research

Thanks so much. Good morning.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Morning, Rob.

Robert Stallard
Robert Stallard
Partner at Vertical Research

John, last quarter, you talked about your worry beads. It does sound like you're a little bit more confident about some of the issues like tariffs or the Boeing build rates than you were three months ago. I just wonder if there's anything else on your worry radar that we should be worried about.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

I mean, I can't call the commercial truck market precisely because we're not sure whether any, I'll say, volume buoyancy we may have seen from the additional emissions requirements for 2027 would result in security volumes in the next 12 months. We don't know whether those emissions regs will continue to apply. It depends on what the new administration ultimately decides. Albeit, I think everybody's now prepared for those new emissions by way of equipment for the truck. That's one where it's difficult to be absolutely certain. We've tried to be on the cautious side of those assumptions, thinking that 2026 is similar to 2025 but could be better. The important thing there is we don't think it's going to get worse, and that's great. Elsewhere, at the moment, things appear to be pretty solid in Commercial [Aerospace] given the backlog. Defense Aerospace budgets, particularly for Europe, are going up.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

F-35, to us, seems solid, and we know we've got enhancements coming from the Block 4 coming in 2028 unless that's delayed another year or so. That is looking helpful. The IGT or Aeroderivatives for the data center business is all solid. I mean, I still have my, I think I'm worried. I'm paid to worry about things, and providing I do it, then you don't have to.

Robert Stallard
Robert Stallard
Partner at Vertical Research

That's sensible. All right. Thanks for that, John.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Please go ahead.

Peter Arment
Senior Research Analyst at R.W. Baird

Yeah. Good morning, John. Again, PT. Nice results. Hey, John, you've talked a lot in the past about headcount. Basically, I think in some of your plants, you're producing more parts today than you were, say, in 2019, and you're doing it with a lot less people. In [Fastening Systems] this quarter, I didn't know people, and you had great growth. Maybe just talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the headcount and the productivity that you're actually seeing amongst the various plants. Thanks.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Okay. I think our productivity numbers for three of our divisions have been really solid. That's clearly not the case in aggregate for our Engine business, just because of all the amount of people we've been recruiting in preparation for the future capacity. Yeah, there's underlying productivity improvement, but adding in those gross numbers of maybe 1,500-1,800 people over the last 12-18 months is obviously, to some degree, weighing on us as we go through this. Productivity for the company has been solid. It has been helped by some of the automation that we had put in over the last, I'll say, two-three years. Albeit now we're slightly pausing on the automation, given our source of capital really for capacity. Where we're putting new equipment in, we're trying to ensure that's at a highly automated level.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

We're not yet going back and still completing some of the products that we know we could do, just so we can stay within our MAX for capital and, I'll say, free cash flow yields, substantive net income where we aspire to get to that 90% on average over the period of time. The important thing is for us to serve the markets, gain the market share. If we have the opportunity, let's say, in 2027-2028, to go back and focus and refocus on some of the automation and further labor productivity opportunities that we have. Our path through is currently let's build, focus on the capacity and share, and then we'll go back and mop up in a couple of years' time any remaining productivity opportunity that we know we have, which we just can't currently focus on at the moment.

Peter Arment
Senior Research Analyst at R.W. Baird

Appreciate the call. Thanks, John.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ken Herbert
Ken Herbert
Aerospace & Defense Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Hey, good morning, John. I just wanted to follow up on some of your comments on inventory levels and destocking. It seems like that narrative's gotten a little more robust here across the supply chain. You talked about it a little bit in structures. As you look across sort of your portfolio, are there any areas where you see incremental risk of this if we do see maybe any slower ramp at either Airbus or Boeing on some of their programs? How would you characterize for you sort of the inventory or destocking risk over the next few quarters?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

One of the things I noted from this quarter was in some of the other aerospace companies that have reported that they had some, I'll say, high single-digit or maybe low double-digit reductions and drawdowns in their OE business for [Commercial] Aerospace. One of the things I thought was particularly good for Howmet was that, despite us facing the same customers and the same, I'll say, inventory reductions, our underlying growth was sufficient that our Commercial Aerospace business was still in positive and growth territory despite that. When you layer in the addition business of spares, etc., then we produced what I think was pretty solid growth for the quarter, which was, again, a higher growth rate than we had in the first quarter. We've been powering through some of that aerospace destocking, which has been occurring.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

I can't be certain exactly where, I'll say, the likes of Boeing is on it. I read that they're going to maintain a healthy level of inventory of parts to guarantee their build. I'm sure that they will because they need to achieve that smoothness of build. In the way we've guided forward, we still layer in there some destocking as we go into the third quarter while still producing positive growth in our Commercial Aerospace OE business with the spares and the defense and all that sort of thing. In aggregate, we expect higher growth. In fact, I think from our guide, you can see that we've ticked up the growth rate to maybe 10%-11% from what it was, 9% in the second quarter. That's, again, a signal of that. Obviously, with the absolute numbers reflecting the, say, the European vacations that occur, so solid year-on-year growth.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

If anything, it's a slight acceleration in the second half, starting with the third quarter.

Ken Herbert
Ken Herbert
Aerospace & Defense Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Great. Thanks, John.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you [audio distortion].

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Scott Deuschle
Scott Deuschle
Director and Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Hey, good morning. John, you had some very strong sequential growth in aerospace fastener revenues this quarter, but it didn't really drop through to sequential EBITDA growth at Fastening Systems. Can you just walk us through why we didn't see much sequential profit drop through on those higher aerospace sales? Is that just tariff recovery lag, as you referenced earlier, or was that something else? Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Yeah. The majority of. First of all, I thought 29% was pretty good, actually, Scott. It's not exactly a number I'll say crying about. Having said that, if you look at the tariff drag that we experience from the company, then in fact, the highest area of tariff drag was in our Fastening business. Again, we're expecting recovery as we go through the years. More of a timing issue. If you adjust for tariff drag, then it's easy to get to a number starting with a three. I don't think that's anything to be concerned about at all. I could go on and say, "There's FX and this, that, and the other." There's no point, really. The answer is it was a pretty good margin step up year-on-year, very sensible in terms of sequential movement given that tariff drag I mentioned to you.

Scott Deuschle
Scott Deuschle
Director and Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Okay, thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Noah Papinek with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Noah Poponak
Noah Poponak
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hey, good morning, everyone. I wondered, is there any framework for when we're looking at the upward revision of CapEx each of the last two years, how much you pick up from that in run rate revenue or the content gain on the engines and the IGTs where it's happening as a percentage, anything like that? How much of a tailwind and when does CapEx become to free cash as you get through that?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Yeah. Right now, clearly, we would not be investing and taking up the CapEx without that expectation of future growth. Some of it, I think, is going to come in 2026, and hopefully further in 2027, as we've obviously been actually further increased that number. If we've increased the number, it's going to take a full year plus to just put that capital to be deployed. That's more going to affect 2027 than what the increase we've just put through on this one, Noah. In terms of profile, I think we should be in that 4%-zone, and I'm still thinking that we're going to have a pretty elevated number in 2026. This number, which now is in the high 300s, I see that persisting through next year.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

With the, I'll say, volume aspect of that pressure coming off in 2027-2028, then we'll have more, I'd say, optionality around investment for the automation and further productivity. Compared to where we'd been, which was under spending depreciation, we're now overspending depreciation. We have a very keen eye on making sure that we achieve our conversion metrics, so we're not trying to get crazy about it. Again, being very discerning of where and how we deploy that capital. Just to re-emphasize the point that in our view, organic growth is by far the best for us in terms of return on capital. You can see the equity returns in the company, and that's really an excellent return on organic growth and capital investment in the company.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Given the choice of buying back shares or acquisitive steps, then I'm positive that the organic growth and stepping up CapEx is really good for us and will be good for the future. It's great, if you think about it, that we have those opportunities to deploy the capital. I've not given revenue guidance from it yet. If we follow to plan, then I'm sure we'll be talking about the 2027 revenue picture in November when we talk about earnings then. I'd prefer to defer on that just at the moment, Noah, but say we do see positive revenue growth as we go into 2026 and positive revenue growth into 2027. We're actually really pleased to deploy the capital and have more opportunities than we're actually capitalizing for.

Noah Poponak
Noah Poponak
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Understood. Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Gautam Khanna
Gautam Khanna
Analyst at TD Cowen

Yeah. John and Ken, great results. I was curious if you could opine on pricing expectations next year and perhaps thereafter, if you expect any change to the rate of net increases you've had?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Okay. I haven't really talked much on the pricing front, except to say that we maintain the process that we've been going through, looking at wherever we renew our long-term agreements, what the movement has been by way of volume and variety, and those parts which have gone from OE to supply or OE and service, just to service supply. We're following that discipline as we've done now for the last six years. In terms of prior commentary, when I gave specific numbers, which I think the last one was in February of 2024, I said that 2025 would be similar, if not greater, was the last words that I used on it, in 2025 than 2024. My expectation is we'll continue to our process, and there should be a similar picture going forward into 2026-2027. Just that consistent movement, Gautam, in terms of price.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Nothing's changed for us by way of process nor by way of annual expectation.

Gautam Khanna
Gautam Khanna
Analyst at TD Cowen

Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from ScottMikus with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Mikus
Scott Mikus
Director at Melius Research

Morning, John and Ken. Industrial policy is a big priority for this administration. We're on a pretty big ramp on both the Commercial Aero and Defense side. When we look at the forging assets in the U.S., there's only four presses that are over 35,000 tons in the U.S. They date back to the 1940s-950s, and you happen to own two of them. Are there any conversations between you and either the DOD or the administration about construction or upgrades to new heavy forging presses?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

There has not been, Scott. I think we've missed something when you ask that question. It's certainly interesting because that capacity and that scale is unique for us. I think there's only one other maybe press in the world that can do that, I think, in Russia. Those are pretty important assets, and they're certainly absolutely critical to supplying the componentry that will be required for, let's say, the new fighter jet, the F-47, and presuma55y for the F-55 as well, as those examples, plus I'm sure some other aircraft parts. Those presses are, I'll say, vital to the defense industry. It's a conversation that maybe we should be having with the DOD by way of support. I guess thank you for asking the question. I was thinking about that, and maybe it's going to stimulate us into having that conversation.

Scott Mikus
Scott Mikus
Director at Melius Research

All right. Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Hey. Good morning, everyone. John, it's great to finally see 737 MAX production rates continue to improve. Frankly, your execution has been stellar. Everyone in the supply chain needs to execute to be able to build a complete aircraft. As you look around the industry to see where bottlenecks are for the Boeing and Airbus ramp-ups, what do you monitor as potential canaries in the coal mine?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

It's very difficult for us to see through the complete supply base of what might occur. I think it's probably other people better placed to do that, maybe including yourselves. The one area which I think is going to be really important for the industry, in the commercial area, for the second half and going into 2026, is the build-out of narrowbody engines. I commented earlier that Airbus have reportedly got 60 aircraft awaiting engines now. Therefore, the production of both the LEAP range of engines by CFM and the GTF by Pratt & Whitney are going to be vital to being able to deliver those aircraft and also to build consistently in the second half. Those production rates have to significantly increase.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

My assumption is that they will because at the moment, what we can see on the HPT side, where we're intimate, particularly in the first few blades of those turbines, there's a relatively good position by way of overall inventory to produce. The strike that happened in the first quarter in Safran is now over. Therefore, that's helping them, and we're supplying now back into volume on the LPT side. I'm thinking that volumes are going to go up. The question is, with the volume ramps of everybody, then is that supply going to be sufficient for everybody, including spare engines, etc., etc.? That's the one area which I'm sort of trying to look at more closely because it's closer to home. Elsewhere, it's difficult for me to really see. I mean, I can't monitor laboratories or seats or AV system. It's just too difficult.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Thanks, John. Maybe if I could have a follow-up there on fasteners. Precision Castparts had their facility accident in the first quarter. Are you seeing the orders materialize from customers to make sure that they can meet all of those products? It is the largest or it was the largest fastener facility for aerospace in the world. The gains that you're getting, how does that compare to what you initially thought?

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Okay. I think Precision Castparts are trying really hard to maintain as much production as possible with movements to their plants in California. They've also been moving a lot of equipment that was still functioning or able to be functional from Jenkins down to a local facility. I believe something in the range of several hundred pieces of equipment have been moved. At the same time, the complete picture cannot be serviced by just them alone. In the last call, I commented that we've moved to about $25 million of orders for that, and we're still bidding at several hundred part numbers. The picture today is that we've moved much closer to $40 million, and therefore, that's good. We are still bidding at a lot of part numbers.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

We're gradually moving towards what we said is an internal target for us for that business and a healthy increase in revenue for the company as we begin to supply those, not massively today, but increasing over the next 12 months.

Kristine Liwag
Kristine Liwag
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you.

John Plant
John Plant
Executive Chairman and CEO at Howmet Aerospace

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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