Devon Energy Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Devon’s business optimization plan aims to generate $1 billion of annual free cash flow by the end of next year, achieving 40% of the target within four months.
  • Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter production exceeded the top end of guidance while capital spending came in 7% below plan, driving $589 million of free cash flow and returning ~70% to shareholders.
  • Positive Sentiment: Operational enhancements delivered a 12% year-over-year reduction in drilling costs and 15% in completion costs in the Delaware Basin, plus $1 million savings per well in Williston and $2.7 million per well in Eagle Ford.
  • Positive Sentiment: Strong liquidity of $4.8 billion and a net debt/EBITDAX ratio of 0.9x support a $2.5 billion debt reduction plan, including early retirement of senior notes to save $7 million in interest.
  • Positive Sentiment: Revised 2025 guidance raises oil output to 384–390 kbd, lowers capital spending by $100 million, and leverages new tax legislation to cut the effective tax rate to ~10%, adding ~$300 million in cash flow.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Devon Energy Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Devon Energy's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. This call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mrs. Rosie Zuclick, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Last night, we issued Devon's second quarter earnings release and presentation materials. Throughout the call today, we will make references to these materials to support prepared remarks. The release and slides can be found in the Investors section of the Devon website. Joining me on the call today are Clay Gaspar, President and Chief Executive Officer Jeffret Nauer, Chief Financial Officer John Raines, SVP, Asset Management Tom Hellman, SVP, E and P Operations and Trey Lowe, SVP, Technology and Chief Technology Officer.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, this conference call will include forward looking statements as defined under U. S. Securities laws. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our forecast. Please refer to the cautionary language and risk factors provided in our SEC filings and earnings materials.

Speaker 1

With that, I'll turn the call over to Clay.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Rosie. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Devon delivered another quarter of production outperformance, capital reduction and improved 2025 outlook, driven by our unwavering commitment to operational excellence and financial discipline. Our strategic priorities on slide three remain steadfast operational excellence, advantaged asset portfolio, maintaining financial strength, delivering value to shareholders and cultivating a culture to succeed.

Speaker 2

Amid market volatility, our veteran leadership team is not distracted by the headline or tweet du jour. We keep our eyes focused on the larger macro signals and we've guided our team's energy towards controlling the controllables. As you will hear, during the quarter, we avoided the distractions and have made significant progress towards our business optimization goals of making Devon a more efficient value creation machine. Our optimization plan will create an incremental $1,000,000,000 of annual free cash flow by the end of next year. While cost cutting is part of the strategy, our focus is on driving value to the bottom line.

Speaker 2

Many of the wins are tied to production enhancements, inciting a culture of continuous improvement and a heavy dose of technology. Only four months into this initiative, our team has already captured 40% of our target. As I sit here today, I'm highly confident in our ability to achieve our $1,000,000,000 target on time and as a result create significant and sustainable value for our shareholders. Consistent with our strategy to enhance our asset portfolio, we completed the sale of the Matterhorn pipeline in Q2. Then on August 1, we acquired the remaining non controlling interest in Cottondraw Midstream.

Speaker 2

These transactions are value enhancing and strengthen our financial position to support future growth. By optimizing our Midstream holding, these deals bolster our E and P operations and give us long term value creation for our shareholders. Let's turn to Slide four and discuss our quarterly highlights. The second quarter demonstrated the strength of our capital program and diversified portfolio. As I mentioned, our second quarter production exceeded the top end of our guidance.

Speaker 2

These results were driven by our franchise asset, the Delaware Basin, and strong performance across our other assets. Continued efficiency gains and effective supply chain management allowed us to outperform expectations with capital spending coming in 7% below guidance. The impressive performance on both capital and production generated significant Q2 free cash flow of $589,000,000 and further strengthened our financial foundation. Approximately 70% of the free cash flow was returned to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases underscoring our reinvestment strategy and commitment to delivering meaningful long term shareholder returns. Let's take a closer look at some of our operational metrics.

Speaker 2

Slide five showcases the significant operational efficiencies we are achieving across our portfolio. In the Delaware, our teams have continued to push the envelope in both drilling and completions. By leveraging our existing or excuse me, our extensive data streams and our proprietary infrac and in drill AI agents, we're able to capture operational enhancements in real time and drive efficiency in our critical operations. In parallel to this real time operational assistance, we're also leveraging design improvements, simul frac implementation and relentless focus on safety and execution. These enhancements have resulted in another 12% year over year improvement in drilling costs and a 15% improvement in completion costs.

Speaker 2

These are not just one time gains. They reflect the ongoing commitment of our teams to drive meaningful long term improvements in how we operate. We are seeing similar momentum in the Williston where our innovative approach has delivered $1,000,000 in savings per well since the Grayson Mill acquisition last year. We've reduced total well costs through design enhancements, improved drilling and completion practices and by leveraging technology. Finally, in the Eagle Ford, I'm pleased to report that we've fully captured the 2,700,000 in savings per well that we set out to achieve as part of the dissolution of the JV in April.

Speaker 2

Overall, the operational highlights demonstrate how our teams are continuously seeking new ways to drive efficiency and deliver value. Let's turn to slide six. You can see how these operational improvements are driving real capital efficiency gains. Since November, we've reduced our 2025 capital guidance by 10% or $400,000,000 We've achieved these capital reductions while regularly increasing our next quarter production guide and maintaining a strong 2026 production outlook. This outcome is a direct result of disciplined capital allocation, ongoing operational improvements and importantly our commitment to leveraging technology across the business.

Speaker 2

Our proprietary AI tools, agents and models are embedded throughout our operations from drilling and completions to real time production optimization. These technologies enable us to quickly source and analyze vast amounts of data, make informed decisions faster and continuously refine our workflows. As I mentioned before, we're not just cutting costs. We are optimizing well performance, reducing cycle times and streamlining field operations, all while delivering production performance and strengthening our financial position. These are sustainable structural gains that will translate into more efficient capital deployment, stronger free cash flow, and long term value.

Speaker 2

With that, I'll hand the call over to Jeff.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Clay. Turning to slide seven, where we highlight another quarter of strong financial performance for Devon. In the second quarter, we delivered core earnings of $0.84 per share, EBITDAX of $1,800,000,000 and operating cash flow of $1,500,000,000 After funding our capital requirements, we generated $589,000,000 in free cash flow. This was driven by production exceeding the top end of our guidance reflecting the excellent operating performance highlighted by Clay, disciplined capital investment resulting in a 7% outperformance versus expectations and production cost improving 5% from the prior period due to reduced downtime, lower workover expenses, and lower production taxes. In addition to strong organic free cash flow, we closed the $372,000,000 divestiture of our equity interest in the Matterhorn pipeline, resulting in $307,000,000 pretax gain.

Speaker 3

With the associated taxes from this divestiture, our current tax rate was approximately 21% for the quarter above our recent run rate. With this robust cash generation, we delivered significant value to shareholders, paying $156,000,000 in dividends and allocating $249,000,000 to share repurchases. We remain firmly committed to our capital allocation framework, balancing high return investments with substantial cash returns to shareholders. Moving to slide eight, our financial strength and liquidity position remain a clear differentiator for Devon. We exited the quarter with $4,800,000,000 in total liquidity, including $1,800,000,000 in cash on hand.

Speaker 3

Our net debt to EBITDAX ratio improved to 0.9 times, reflecting our ongoing focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our $2,500,000,000 debt reduction plan is progressing well with $500,000,000 already retired. Additionally, we plan to accelerate the retirement of our $485,000,000 senior notes maturing in December. Taking advantage of the no penalty call option, we've elected to retire these notes in September, one quarter earlier than originally planned, saving $7,000,000 in interest expense in 2025. Another differentiator for Devon is our success on the midstream and marketing front.

Speaker 3

After quarter end, we acquired all outstanding non controlling interest in Cottondraw Midstream for $260,000,000 This transaction gives us a 100% ownership of the asset and full access to its cash flows resulting in savings of over $50,000,000 in projected annual distributions that would have been paid to our partner. These savings are incremental to our $1,000,000,000 business optimization plan announced earlier in the year, further improving our multiyear cash inflows. Full ownership of Cottondraw Midstream strengthens our competitive position in the basin and supports future growth in one of our most prolific areas. Alongside the Matterhorn pipeline divestiture, this acquisition demonstrates our commitment to creating value and enhancing our E and P operations through our strategic midstream investments. With these transactions, we successfully created value as both a buyer and seller of midstream assets.

Speaker 3

Moving forward, we remain open to additional opportunities in the midstream space and creating additional value with our investments. On the gas marketing front, we're focused on maximizing realizations and positioning our gas production to benefit from increasing demand driven by LNG expansion and power generation. In the second quarter, we executed two new agreements that advance these objectives and further diversify our natural gas sales portfolio. The first is a ten year gas sales agreement to an LNG counterparty starting in 2028, under which Devon will sell 50,000,000 cubic feet a day of natural gas at a Gulf Coast delivery point with pricing index to international markets. As LNG build out creates additional demand for natural gas, we expect to pursue more opportunities to add exposure to international price markers.

Speaker 3

The second is a Permian gas sales agreement with Competitive Power Ventures, Basin Ranch Energy Center to support its proposed 1,350 megawatt power plant. With an expected start in 2028, Devon will supply 65,000,000 cubic feet per day of natural gas for a seven year term with pricing indexed to ERCOT West power prices. This pricing construct further limits Devon's exposure to the Waha price weakness we've seen in the basin for some time. Now turning to slide nine to touch on guidance. For the second consecutive quarter, we're raising our oil production outlook while lowering capital spending.

Speaker 3

We now expect full year oil volumes to range from 384,000 to 390,000 barrels per day, reflecting continued strong well productivity and base performance across our portfolio. Total capital guidance is being reduced by $100,000,000 to a range of $3,600,000,000 to $3,800,000,000 Importantly, our breakeven funding level remains highly competitive at less than $45 WTI, including the dividend. At today's strip pricing, this positions us to generate approximately $3,000,000,000 in free cash flow for the year, underscoring the resilience and flexibility of our business model. I'd also like to highlight the positive impact of the recently passed federal legislation, which provides meaningful tax benefits for Devon. These changes are expected to enhance our free cash flow profile in 2025 and beyond, further strengthening our ability to reinvest in the business and return capital to shareholders.

Speaker 3

While our tax rate will be somewhat volatile over the next few quarters as we incorporate the new legislation, we now expect our full year 2025 current tax rate to be about to be around 10%, down from our previous estimate of 15%, adding nearly $300,000,000 in projected cash flow for the year. Looking beyond 2025, we expect to no longer be subject to the corporate alternative minimum tax. As a result, we anticipate our ongoing current tax rate will be significantly lower than previous estimates ranging between 510%. This reduction will provide Devon with increased cash flow of approximately $1,000,000,000 over the next three years assuming a similar pricing environment and capital spend. This is in addition to the $1,000,000,000 of incremental free cash flow from our business optimization plan.

Speaker 3

Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect to build on the momentum established in the first half of the year. Our operational execution remains strong, and we anticipate stable production of 387,000 barrels of oil per day. With the capital efficiency improvements and as new wells come online and optimization initiatives take effect, we expect lower capital costs compared to the first two quarters. As our teams continue to deliver on key milestones, we're confident that Devon is well positioned to deliver another quarter of strong results and create additional value for our shareholders. Shifting gears now to talk about the business optimization plan on slide 10.

Speaker 3

On the right side of the slide, you'll see a scorecard tracking our progress. As we achieve milestones that generate additional cash flow, we'll update this graph to provide clear visibility into the timing impact of these benefits. In the course of only four months, we've achieved 40% of our $1,000,000,000 goal. From the dark blue bars on the graph, you can see the progress we've made by category to date. This quarter, we're reducing 2025 capital by another $100,000,000, roughly $75,000,000 of which is directly attributable to our business optimization efforts with the remaining $25,000,000 resulting from deflationary pressures.

Speaker 3

As Clay mentioned, our drilling and completion teams are leveraging artificial intelligence to drive capital efficiency while our production teams continue to innovate lift techniques to sustain production levels. On the corporate cost front, we'll retire our $485,000,000 senior notes this year, resulting in $30,000,000 in annual savings to our run rate cost structure. As a reminder, a $100,000,000 of the $150,000,000 target in corporate costs will be met with debt retirement. We expect to achieve this target in the 2026 with the paydown of the term loan. Finishing our business optimization discussion on Slide 11, As we've said before, our intent is to be open and transparent with this plan, communicating often.

Speaker 3

We've included more details here on initiatives underway and milestones achieved. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Rosie for q and a.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jess. We'll now open the call to q and a. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. With that, operator, please, we'll take the first call.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Neil.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks so much, team. Appreciate all the color here today. We just love your perspective of on getting on the non oil realizations. So I think it was clear as you're executing very well on oil, the netbacks are good on oil.

Speaker 4

NGLs and local gas prices have continued to be a headwind for a lot of producers, including you guys. And so as you think about the back half of this year and into next year and then some even some of marketing agreements that you announced here today, what are you doing to try to capture better on the non oil side of the equation?

Speaker 2

Neil, it's Clay. Thanks for the question. And one, the acknowledgment of the good work that our midstream marketing teams are doing every day. We highlighted a couple of deals this quarter, but it's just it's on top of all the other good work that we've done. I'll let Jeff dig in a little bit more on those two particular deals, but I think it's a great opportunity just to us to continue to acknowledge the work that we've been doing in this space for quite some time now.

Speaker 3

Yes, Neil. This is Jeff. Yes, again, appreciate the question. And as you know well, we've talked about this for a number of quarters in a row now. Our broader marketing specific to our natural gas and again the bulk of our natural gas production obviously comes out of the Delaware Basin today followed by our Oklahoma gas production.

Speaker 3

But specifically in the Delaware, our approach has been to move those molecules away from Waha, right? We talked about the weakness that we've seen in Waha for some time. We've been involved with some of our midstream investments and our broader commitment to firm transportation to move molecules away from Waha and to the demand center, specifically to the Gulf Coast. So where we sit today when we look at our Oahu exposure, less than 15% of our gas actually has direct Oahu exposure in Basin. The rest of that we either hedge our exposure or our firm transportation and our firm sales to our counterparties move those molecules away mostly to the Gulf Coast again.

Speaker 3

As we look forward between Matterhorn and our Blackcomb you know, commitment that we've made, the pipeline that will come on later late excuse me, in the second half of next year, we're gonna be approaching over a billion dollars of of transport out of basin. So we feel really good about the work excuse me, billion dollar BCF a day. Sorry. A BCF a day of transport, out of basin, which makes us feel really good about the work the team's done, as as Clay mentioned, to really, limit our exposure to Waha on a go forward basis. On top of that, obviously, with the announcements, that that we mentioned today in our opening remarks, we're always happy to see incremental in basin demand show up.

Speaker 3

And so the CPV, you know, power gen opportunity is something that we're excited about. Again, relatively small relative to our our our production profile in the Delaware, but every bit helps. And, you know, particularly like the idea of the, you know, the the the index to the power price, which we're bullish on think and that again provides some real diversity to our gas sales portfolio.

Speaker 4

Yes. That's great color guys. And then slide 10, always helpful to see how you guys are scorecarding across the buckets of business optimization. Just unpack this for us a little bit. How is that 40% that you've achieved in the first four months compared relative to your expectations?

Speaker 4

And what's the next key milestone you guys are really focused on here?

Speaker 5

Yeah. Thanks for the question. This is Trey. We're really encouraged by all of the advances that we've seen so far. Obviously, we've made a ton of improvements across several of the categories, And we're going to continue to see a lot of the other categories, the ideas that are being implemented today show up in the financials in the coming quarters.

Speaker 5

Some of the examples that I would share, we continue to see our teams lean on technology and AI. The way that all of our employees are working today is changing in real time, and we've seen the adoption and investment that we've made over a number of years really take fire, and we're our leadership team has set an expectation and and table stakes really that we expect all of our employees to use these new tools, and that's showing up in a lot of these business optimization initiatives that we have across the company. One that I would highlight is in our in our production space, and we've got a a new analytics, that we've just kinda had a breakthrough in the last quarter of how we're tying all of our real time streaming data from the field into our, AI systems and into our agents and allowed us to come up with a new way of how we're analyzing our production faults across the company. This is gonna result in millions of dollars of savings, and we've got many of those ideas that are being implemented today that we're gonna continue see grow legs and show up in the financials in the coming quarter.

Speaker 2

And Neil, I wanted to pile on that. I want to reiterate something that Jeff mentioned in his prepared remarks. The credibility of this program is really, really important to us. When we announced it back in four months or so ago, we knew we weren't going to get an instantaneous credit of $1,000,000,000 of incremental free cash flow baked into our share price that we needed to earn it. And so there are four things that I wanted to point out that we have specifically set aside as incremental to this business optimization, dollars 1,000,000,000 of annual free cash flow.

Speaker 2

So last quarter, we talked about the proceeds from Matterhorn. We are not claiming credit for that in our business optimization model. This quarter, we talked about CDM and the benefits associated with $50,000,000 plus of dollars not going out the door that we are not claiming credit. In addition, we've talked before about the deflationary dollars that will not accrue to this, tally as well. And then the really big one this quarter is the taxes.

Speaker 2

Obviously, 300 plus million dollars a year will absolutely enhance our free cash flow, but we're not claiming credit, on this business optimization for those four important things. So think of it this way, we're gonna achieve the billion dollars of incremental free cash flow by the end of next year in a sustainable, ratable way each year going forward, plus these other very, very significant items. And so I think the credibility is worth underscoring about three times just to make sure that you guys are hearing us. We're trying to be as transparent and open, as we can on this and really holding ourselves accountable to achieving some really big things. And what I would tell you is that the team is crushing it.

Speaker 2

So thanks for the question.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Please go ahead, Scott.

Speaker 6

Yes, good morning. It's nice to see the full year oil volumes ticking higher here. Does the improvement in output drive you to shift higher how you think about the maintenance level of production in 2026 through the new run rate from this year?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Scott. Look, we are obviously, next year is a little still too early to talk about. We're not, providing guidance yet. But, obviously, we're doing the work.

Speaker 2

The work that we do this year really sets up the work for next year. And what we're still doing is goal seeking for that kind of mid March as the right run rate going forward. So don't think of this as a reset. We're going to have some quarters that are little hotter and a little bit lower, but we're still running kind of that mid three eighties as the right oil rate for us. So this is not a reset going forward.

Speaker 6

I guess with the production enhancement efforts, would that not kick higher? Kind of why keep it at mid-3.80s? Or is that just kind of baking in some conservatism?

Speaker 2

Yes. So obviously, we're thinking a lot about the macro. We feel like the oil market is just generally well supplied. And what that translates into us is that we think maintenance capital is the right approach from an investment standpoint. So as we accrue benefits on the production side, on the capital side, on the LOE side, what we're attempting to do is is accrue those benefits on the cost side of the equation, ultimately, in a reduced capital benefit.

Speaker 2

Now it's hard to do that on a quarter to quarter basis. And so you see, like, we've we've got it next quarter to a midpoint of three eighty seven. Yeah. Don't think of that as as a runaway growth. This is just the incredibly good work of the teams.

Speaker 2

What we're trying to do is make sure that we balance kind of moderating that activity, so we're not running away on production. But at the same time, we're being very thoughtful about trying to be ratable and smooth in that outlook and that's what we're solving for when we're looking at '26 and really beyond. Yeah. John's got one more point.

Speaker 7

Yeah. And I I think just to add to Clay's comments, the the downshift in in rig and horsepower count that you saw as announced in q one is reflective of that. So as we have these production optimization gains, a lot of times they show up, in a lot of small ways, and we see it more in real time. And to Clay's point, we see that in the next quarter. And so, that's that's the reason you're seeing a little bit higher guide for the next quarter.

Speaker 7

But the behavior, that Clay described really manifest in in q one and q two, and you're seeing those those rig drops, here in the second half of the year, and that's reflective of what I think you'll see us do go forward when

Speaker 2

we have these production wins. And think about the benefits of that, Scott. I mean, we are all just cherishing this amazing portfolio that we have. And each time we're able to kind of moderate that activity, flatten that base decline, lower that the amount of maintenance capital that's required, that extends that runway even further. So there's many magnitudes of benefit associated with the good work that we're doing on this business optimization.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Freeman with Raymond James. John, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you. This morning, Landbridge announced a produced water pore space agreement with you all starting in 02/1927. It looks like y'all are getting out ahead of, you know, what could potentially be an issue in in the Permian. I'm just, hoping y'all could maybe elaborate on that deal and how much runway, you see it providing y'all.

Speaker 7

Yeah, John. You're you're, exactly right on on us getting out ahead of it. I would just tell you this deal, is very consistent with our water management strategy in the Delaware Basin, and maybe I'll hit that at a high level. So first, it's probably worth noting, just the magnitude of the water production we have in the Delaware Basin. We're managing at any given time, anywhere from a million to 1.2, 1,300,000 barrels a day.

Speaker 7

And so the first call on that water really for us is our water recycle and reuse. You know, depending on how many frac crews we have running at any given time, how much third party water demand may be out there, We can send maybe 25 to 30 per 5%, maybe on a really good day, 40% of our water back to recycle, and we'll reuse that in our operations. But beyond that, we've gotta manage that water, and we've done a couple of things over the past few years to be really proactive in that space. One was our joint venture with Waterbridge, predominantly on the Texas side, of the basin. We've since expanded that partnership a bit, on the New Mexico side.

Speaker 7

The the other thing that we've done and more predominantly on the New Mexico side is continue to build out our infrastructure into what we call a super system. And specific to New Mexico, we now have the ability to move water from asset to asset bidirectionally. It gives us a lot of flexibility. And then what we do, on the back end of that is we have a lot of strategic partnerships with third parties, to be able to move that water around. And so the deal that you saw announced this morning is, simply one of those, strategic relationships with a third party.

Speaker 7

We've really leveraged our Waterbridge JV, to be allow us to to do that. And so in in 2027, when that deal, really becomes effective, we'll now have the ability to move that water, to a part of the basin, that's much lower in terms of pore pressures in the Delaware Mountain Group. And so I see this as a a strategic advantage for Devon going forward. It's a win win for our partners on the deal, and for Devon.

Speaker 8

Appreciate the, the color. And then just following up on the, the new gas marketing agreement with CPV. You've got a competitor that's also participating and they disclosed the right to also purchase power from that facility for their own operations. Do you all have

Speaker 6

a similar agreement in place?

Speaker 3

Yes, John. Appreciate the question. We have not negotiated an agreement to purchase power from them at this point in time, but that's absolutely something that our option, frankly, and John can just speak to this in more detail. We just don't have the load on the Texas side of the border and the need for it at this point in time as maybe compared to what we're doing on the New Mexico side. John, you want to add some color to that?

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 7

I think that's right. I don't have a lot of color to add there. But over on the Texas side, we haven't fully electrified a number of our facilities, and that includes, some of our midstream compression, which would really cause our load demand to be, significantly, higher. To that, we also have dedicated substations on the Texas side, good partnership and relationship with Encore. So on a relative need basis, that's not simply something that we have as much of.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank. Please go ahead, Paul.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Good morning. Maybe, Kate, if we can we look at Bakken? Maybe that the data is wrong, but it does look like the well productivity is maybe come down a bit and also from the third party data. So can you give us some idea that are we seeing that it's just a blip or that the deterioration is something that need to work on?

Speaker 9

And also whether you have a sufficient scale now after the Graysom acquisition that you think you have? And the second question is that on Eagle Ford that after the dissolve of the joint venture, can you give us some idea that now you reset, I suppose that you reset the base? And how is the cadence on your activity and also your production outlook for that over the next several quarters? Thank you.

Speaker 7

Yeah. Paul, I'll this is John. I'll do my best to answer both those questions. So starting in the Williston, really, the phenomenon you're seeing there is, back, in what would be, probably some of the newer public data you're seeing coming from q four. That that was largely our Missouri River pad on the East side of the basin, which is our legacy asset.

Speaker 7

Simply put, the geology's higher quality there. You're gonna see, more productive wells. So as we've shifted our activity over to the West side of the basin on the newly acquired Grayson asset, on a relative basis, you're gonna see well productivity, be a bit lower. What I would tell you though relative to our expectations, our well productivity has been, quite good on the West Side of the basin. So very consistent with our expectations and really, no concerns, on our part with with Williston well productivity.

Speaker 7

I think second, on your question on the Eagle Ford, if I heard you correctly, yes. There's absolutely been, sort of a a a reset on on our production there. As we closed the BPX dissolution on the first day of the quarter, BPX took a disproportionate amount of the production on that deal while we took more of the upside. And so really, when you look, post BPX dissolution closure, we've got about 55 more wells that we wanna bring on, throughout the course of the year on that asset. That's about 90% in DeWitt, County, on the Blackhawk Field, formerly part of that JV.

Speaker 7

And we feel really good, about, our ability to continue to grow production, back to the levels sort of pre split.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Hanold with RBC. Please go ahead, Scott.

Speaker 10

Thanks. Hey, Jeff, you kind of mentioned the windfall you all are going to get from the OBBBA.

Speaker 6

So I think you said

Speaker 10

$1,000,000,000 over the next few years. What is the plan on allocating that cash? Like what are you targeting to do with that? Could that be for incremental shareholder returns? Do you would you rather focus on maybe paying off the term loan faster?

Speaker 10

But just give me your thoughts on how to allocate that.

Speaker 3

Yes, Scott. It's a great question and I appreciate you highlighting the optionality that we're going to have with the incremental free cash flow. Really a great position to be in on a go forward basis. When we look at our financial framework and shareholder return kind of approach, there's as of today, no change to that going forward. So as you know, the priority there is for us to grow and sustain our fixed dividend is kind of the first priority.

Speaker 3

We've set out a range on the share repo by quarter of about 200,000,000 to $300,000,000 per quarter. We don't expect to change that at all. And then, of course, as you know, we've got the $2,500,000,000 debt reduction target out in front of us as well. So as we accrue this incremental free cash flow from our business optimization game plan, from the the tax savings that we've seen or expect to see, that will accrue to our balance sheet and will will likely accelerate some of the debt reduction that we have planned here over the course of the next eighteen months or so.

Speaker 10

Okay. I appreciate that. My follow-up is on the Anadarko. Paul highlighted, obviously, there's some moving parts both Bakken and Eagle Ford production. But I think the Anadarko stepped up pretty strongly this quarter as well.

Speaker 10

Can you tell us where you all are with the JV there and how to think about that production? And obviously, it's got a little bit more of a gas mix. So be interested to hear your kind of thoughts on, you know, investing in that area and and your views on the gas macro.

Speaker 7

Yeah. As far as the Anadarko, a lot of what we're doing there is really prosecuting our, Dow JV. So as you recall, that's a a 49 well commitment we kicked off, I believe, here in the second, quarter. And so we've been, prosecuting that activity, with that. The the production growth that you've seen, sort of quarter over quarter there, would have largely been tied to the new well IDs associated with that activity.

Speaker 7

Now we'll say relative to to q one, we did have some weather impacts in q one. So, the growth, probably appears to be a little bit more than what it otherwise would be, but we've been consistently running two rigs in that basin, you know, now for much much of the year. I'd say the activity is pretty consistent.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead, Doug.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Good morning. Clay, can you hear me okay?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Doug. I can hear you fantastically.

Speaker 11

I just wanted to check that there were no connection issues this time around. So thanks for your patience. Sincerely appreciate you checking street. Good stuff. You've no idea how many times I said that last time around.

Speaker 11

But anyway, I did actually want to ask a question last call and I didn't get to for some reason. And it was about the BP separation. And I want to address one specific issue. When BP talks about this, they said that they chose their acreage because they had problems with the Wilcox, the instability of the Wilcox sand in the eastern part of the play, which caused sidetracks, all sorts of operating problems and so on and they wanted to avoid that going forward. I wonder if you could address that as it relates to your experience of operating in that part of the Eagle Ford.

Speaker 11

And I've got a follow-up for Jeff, if that's okay.

Speaker 2

Sure, Doug. Yes, happy to address that. So I mean this is a classic win win. I think BPX was really happy to get the acreage that they did and satisfied some of the objectives that they had. As John mentioned, they've got a disproportionate share of the production day one.

Speaker 2

But I can tell you, we were equally happy to get the acreage that we did. We have more running room, more upside. We've seen this very material savings in capital cost that completely changes the game. We feel very confident in our ability to execute as you move to that Northeast area. It is more challenging drilling, but we are much more confident to having our D and C team jump all over that.

Speaker 2

We see a lot of runway. We've executed that. We didn't have the slide this quarter, but if you look back at last quarter, we showed as we continue to move and take over, these material savings are real. As we continue to move to the Northeast, there's an extra step that we will take in regards to casing string. But what it does is at this lower cost structure, it continues to open up significant runway, and we just see so much more upside.

Speaker 2

So it's one of the things that we are super excited about. The the team has done an exceptional job on executing on some of the the objectives that we had. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our stated goal was to north of $2,000,000 We had kind of whispered, we really think it's $2,700,000 We've now achieved that $2,700,000 per well. And as you know, that changes the game on the upside potential of that runway. And even the more challenging acreage to the Northeast, we just have so much more running room and so much more upside value to create from there.

Speaker 11

Clear that saving includes the additional strength?

Speaker 2

Yes. So the wells that we're comparing apples to apples, that the, that's is the 2,700,000.0. But we needed to be able to achieve that as we move to the Northeast. Most of those wells are gonna be the same casing design, but where we apply the incremental casing designs, they were cost prohibited before and so just had no value in our portfolio. With this improved savings, even if we have to add an extra casing string, which would require some extra cost, these remain, value creative and and accrued to the positive on NPV-four.

Speaker 2

So that incremental case ensuring where necessary is incremental, but know that that overall savings still allows these wells to be competitive in our portfolio.

Speaker 11

That's great. Thanks for the clarity. So my follow-up Jeff, I guess there's a couple of pieces to this and it starts with cash tax. You've given the next three years. My question is, I know it's not there's no precision here, but this idea that you now get IDCs on a kind of as well, I guess as long as the current administration is in place for an extended period of time.

Speaker 11

What does it look like beyond the next two or three years? And I guess my part B would be, clearly, is kind of a windfall. I think I heard you say that you're prepared to put cash on the balance sheet and reduce net debt. Am I overthinking that?

Speaker 3

No. That's exactly right, Doug. Yes. As we continue to and obviously, the tax is is impactful, but also the free cash flow we're gonna generate with our business optimization game plan and some of the other things that we've talked about here today that that Clay mentioned previously. You know, again, things can change in the world, but based on our current forecast, we're gonna be we're generating significant free free cash flow going forward, incremental that that to what we would have thought of even just a few months ago.

Speaker 3

And so our game plan is not to change our our shareholder return framework at this point in time, accrue that cash to the balance sheet, help us achieve that $2,500,000,000 debt reduction that we set out on the back of the the Grayson Mill acquisition. So that's absolutely our current thoughts around how we're gonna allocate this capital going forward. And and again, as we work through our capital budget here over the coming months, we'll obviously provide some incremental guidance on 2026 and things may change a bit. But the current thought process is continue to work towards that $2,500,000,000 debt reduction beyond the cash returns to shareholders. To your question about longer term kind of tax profile, as I highlighted in my opening remarks, the benefit of Camt going away the corporate alt min tax going away for us as

Speaker 7

a result of

Speaker 3

the I d IDC deductions. We'll have a a a tax rate a current tax rate closer to that 5% level as we look at 2026. It'll it'll move a little higher in 2027, probably closer to that 10% that I highlighted in the comment. And then beyond then, you know, again, kind of current price structure, current capital investment, you'll likely see that current tax rate trend higher. But as we look out in our projections, you know, if we look at the, know, you the current tax rate we had here in the second quarter was obviously elevated with the with the huge gain that we had on the on the Matterhorn sale.

Speaker 3

But if you go back another quarter and see us being in kind of the high teens, we don't get back to that kind of level in our projections until, you know, six, seven years out, right, under the current construct. So definitely a benefit for us. Obviously, the the bulk of that comes here over the next three years with the acceleration of the r d r and d expensing and the bonus depreciation, but really carries forward even beyond the next three years until things level out.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Good morning, gentlemen. One follow-up, Jeff, on the commercial opportunities or the $200,000,000 that you've realized in that bucket, what is the timing of when you'll get those savings? Is that early in the year? But maybe just helpful because it is a pretty meaningful needle mover. Let me get the timing there.

Speaker 3

Yes. So Arun, remember on the I think we talked about this on the last call. We basically got the contracts executed in in place to capture the bulk of that, right, which we've highlighted in our slide and our scorecard. Going forward, there's some incremental to go get, and and we'll continue to work that forward over the course of the the remainder of this year and into '26 a little bit as well. But that first tranche that we've already highlighted is kind of captured.

Speaker 3

Those go into effect at the end of this year. I think it's in the November, December time frame. So you'll really get the full year benefit of that as you look at our 2026 projection.

Speaker 12

Got it. Got it. I just wanna make sure because on the slide, it says it's not captured in your 2025 outlook, but you'll get that later this year.

Speaker 3

Yeah. And the reason for that is it's not impacting 2025, so it's really a 2026 benefit.

Speaker 12

Got it. Got it. I got one follow-up. Clay, as you have contemplated a higher degree of co development between the Wolfcamp B and Wolfcamp A zones, in the Delaware Basin, I think the mix is going to 30% this year versus 10 last year. I was wondering if you could comment on how, you're seeing the interplay between the Wolfcamp B and Wolfcamp A zones and and just talk about, you know, are you seeing any impacts to, you know, productivity, in that Wolfcamp A zone?

Speaker 2

Hey, Arun. Thanks for the question. I you know, when we think about these kind of, these decisions, these are very macro portfolio oriented. And so when we're doing the trade off, we're thinking about rate of return, we're thinking about NPV, and we're thinking about quantification of the portfolio. And we're trying to balance and optimize all three of those.

Speaker 2

I'm gonna kick it to John. He can talk a little bit more in detail about what we're seeing kinda well to well. And then importantly, how do we plan to continue, on this path rolling forward?

Speaker 7

Yeah. Arun and Clay, thanks for the setup there because, I I do think it starts with, excuse me, the the trade offs. Pardon me. As Clay mentioned, as we shift more into this multi zone codevelopment, we know we're taking a little bit of a near term trade off on a bit lower well productivity in exchange for a more optimized net present value across our inventory, but importantly, a more sustainable and longer term inventory runway. And so when you ask the question specifically, is the inclusion of the Wolfcamp b impacting the Wolfcamp a?

Speaker 7

I would tell you generally, no. That's not what we're seeing. We've appraised that that potential impact now over a couple of years. We've really optimized both our landings and our spacings to get these large multi zone developments right. And I'll tell you that the the the benefit we see is really avoiding the depletion effect on future inventory.

Speaker 7

And so if we wanted to prop up our well productivity and just mow down our best zones, we could do that. And what we'd probably do is mow down our Wolfcamp a. But if we did that, we would be sacrificing the productivity of the Wolfcamp b later on. You'd see depletion effects in those wells, and those wells would be lower productivity out in time. So this is a good reason of why we're so convicted in this multi zone codevelopment philosophy.

Speaker 7

So limited to no impacts on the a, but the real win there is we're maintaining the productivity of the b wells. I hope that answers your question.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Betty Jiang with Barclays. Please go ahead,

Speaker 13

Good morning. It's great to see the operational momentum translating into free cash flow generation. As a follow-up to you, Jeff, We talked a lot about the balance of capital allocation. Maybe asked differently, you are grinding that or paying down that $2,500,000,000 of net debt reduction faster than previously expected with all these efficiency gains, lower CapEx and tax savings. What do you think is the optimal debt level for this business going forward?

Speaker 13

We see you potentially reaching that $2,500,000,000 target by 2026, maybe early twenty twenty seven. Is that after that we could see a potential increase in cash return? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Absolutely, Betty. I think that's a great way to think about it. As you and I talked about in the past, you know, the 2 and a half billion dollar debt reduction that we have targeted, really does get us to kinda what I think about as our optimal absolute debt level. So if you see, you know, obviously, today, we sit, at $8,900,000,000 of absolute debt.

Speaker 3

You take off the 2 and a half, and you're somewhere in the $6.06 to 6 and a half billion dollar range. When we run our downside sensitivities around, you know, pricing and cost structure, obviously, that that net debt to EBITDA ratio can flip on you pretty quickly. But at that absolute debt level of six, six and a half billion dollars, we feel pretty comfortable and and feel really good about maintaining our investment grade status, which is which is critical to us for, you know, all parts of our our our business. So I think about that as kind of the optimal absolute level. And and, again, I I wanna reiterate that's certainly a priority for us, but the the benefit of, again, accruing this cash to the balance sheet, and we'll absolutely consider some acceleration of of the debt repayment as I talked about earlier.

Speaker 3

But that cash on the on the balance sheet provides us optimal flexibility. So without question, we're gonna be continue to be talking to our board about how do we, continue to build upon the cash returns to our shareholders. And so don't take any of my comments as precluding the option, you know, down the road of of that increasing over time. But certainly in the near term, the priority is is, is on the debt repayment.

Speaker 13

That's very clear. Thanks. My follow-up is on sort of a logging the next layer of resources. Given the lower cost structure whether that's coming from midstream or upstream, do you see other resource opportunities that's getting unlocked now that was previously uneconomical under the prior higher cost structure? If so, like, where where could be some of these opportunities?

Speaker 7

Yeah. Betty, I I think the the best example that I would point you to there, and we've talked about this on on previous calls, is, our objectives, for instance, in the Powder River Basin. When you look at, what we're doing there and what we're trying to accomplish there, I'd say there's really two deliverables. One, we wanna deliver more consistent and competitive well results. So when you look back to 2024 and what we've done in 2025, we've delivered very consistent results.

Speaker 7

In fact, some of the more consistent results in our our portfolio, These are some of the the best results we've delivered to Nibra thus far. The second aspect of our strategic objective there is we've gotta consistently lower our well cost. And so when you look specifically at some of these optimizations and the work we're doing, you know, we've been, historically north of of $13,000,000 on a three mile Niobrara well. We've made a lot of progress. We've gotten closer to, call it, a $12,000,000 type well.

Speaker 7

And when you look forward at some of the upcoming programs, some of the design changes we're making, some of the scale benefits we'll achieve, we have a vision well concept out there, that that aligns very well with our business optimization to get to a $10,000,000 type of D and C cost for a three mile Niobrara well. And that's a perfect example of taking something that's marginally competitive in our portfolio today and making it competitive.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Philip Youngworth with BMO. Philip, please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Thanks. Good morning. You mentioned being open to additional investments in the midstream space and was just hoping you could expand on this and maybe what part of the value chain that could be. And what would the target level of investment be, assuming you're planning to fund this Devon balance sheet?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question, Philip. I think what's really interesting about this quarter is you see an example of us highlighting a midstream asset sale and a midstream asset acquisition. And both, we're really excited about. We think they are cost beneficial, structurally beneficial, value creating opportunities.

Speaker 2

And so don't think of us as maybe only going one direction on this, but always trying to do the work to find out what is the better scenario to make us a better company. In the case of Matterhorn, we had a tremendous five bagger return on that investment. We've held on to the capacity. And then importantly, we made we allowed the pipe to get put into the ground, which was the initial motivation. So check, check, check on that.

Speaker 2

We retain the capacity. We're doing a really good job there. When we think about something like CDM, that is one of our highest growth, highest value assets. Maintaining control of that, we continue to see gas volumes grow in the area. We see significant upside for that.

Speaker 2

And then we had an opportunity to take out the rest of it and then lower our cost structure going forward at a very, very competitive investment. So both of those, although they could appear moving in the opposite direction, the common theme is value creation. Jeff, do you

Speaker 3

have other comments? I would just I would echo your comment and just kinda just sum that up, say, everything that we do related to our midstream investments is specific to our broader strategy both on the E and P side of optimizing our business there and and creating as lowest cost structure as possible for our core business. And then on the on the midstream side, as and Clay referenced this, it's really a thought process around our broader marketing portfolio and making sure that we can achieve the highest realized price for our molecules in all of our basins. So as Clay gave a great example with Matterhorn, we made an investment there. And as as as he said, we're ecstatic with the with the significant gain that we achieved there.

Speaker 3

But the real driver of that investment was to make sure that pipe got built and make sure we could get our molecules via firm transport to the demand center. So that's really the the broader strategic philosophy, if you will, of all things midstream investment for us.

Speaker 14

Okay. Great. And then you had strong Delaware production in the quarter. And just following up on the co development question, Now that we're halfway through the year, can you talk about how just generally how performance has been versus expectations? Any key learnings so far?

Speaker 14

And then how optimized do you think you are at the moment as far as overall completion intensity per per DSU?

Speaker 7

Yeah. I'll I'll I'll I'll start with well productivity. So as you heard me mention earlier, we've we've developed more, momentum into our multi zone development philosophy. I think we've been talking about that for a number of quarters. When you look at the well productivity from, the wells that we brought online this year, I think the public dataset right now is q one.

Speaker 7

And so, what I would tell you generally is those well results are very consistent with our expectations. Now I've also seen, some newsletters, some data points, some chatter out there that, well, productivity is dropping off in a big way. So I do wanna provide I I would caution folks against calling that a trend, and I wanna provide a little bit of context around our q one dataset. So, specifically, if you look at it, it's very weighted to the Wolfcamp b or the deeper Wolfcamp, as well as disproportionately weighted to, the Avalon. When you look at sort of our total well mix this year for the Delaware Basin, we anticipate 30% to be Wolfcamp B, yet we brought on 60% of our total Wolfcamp B wells here in the first quarter.

Speaker 7

So what we would really anticipate is returning a bit to a a non outlier, more normalized well mix throughout the next few quarters. With that, we're gonna see well productivity increase. So we feel very good about what we're seeing there. I think your second question was around optimized on completions. This is something that we're always looking at.

Speaker 7

We're always adopting different completion designs based on what we're seeing, with our own appraisal or benchmarking against competitors. There are some completion design changes we're making in in in certain parts of our areas and other parts, we feel that we're dialed in. For instance, we were talking to the team, just earlier this week, about, our completion design intensity in one of our zones and one of our assets, and we're gonna dial that up based on what we're seeing. So we continue to optimize around completions as well as, all aspects of our development planning, which would include landings and spacings and other design parameters.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Deckelbaum with TD Securities. Please go ahead, David.

Speaker 15

Yes. Thanks everyone for squeezing me on. Clay, I wanted to just get back to the initiatives, particularly on commercial opportunities. And so far it looks like the savings achieved have been in the Delaware. Do you anticipate focusing on other areas of the portfolio that might enhance some of the economics specifically in areas like Anadarko?

Speaker 15

Or is there more work to be done more in the Delaware from a midstream renegotiation perspective?

Speaker 2

Yes, David. For sure, the big wins have been in the Delaware where most of our activity is. There's an opportunity for active renegotiation there. But we have made wins in the Anadarko as well. We continue to focus there.

Speaker 2

We see the tremendous gas potential that we just need to unlock more value, make sure we're hanging on to the dollars that come in the door a little bit better. And so I'd say that's another area that we will continue to see and accrue benefits.

Speaker 15

I guess, are most of the quantified opportunities have been captured, are they more a function of better realizations? Or are you getting materially better rates here?

Speaker 3

Yeah, David. It's a mix of both. So given the nature of the contracts, depending on where it is and how the contract is constructed, sometimes you'll see that run through our realizations on gas and NGLs, in particular, in the Delaware. But at other times, will run through GPT. So it can be a little difficult to follow in the financials from time to time.

Speaker 3

But absolutely, it's a mix of all the above.

Operator

Thank you. Those are all the questions we have time for today. And so I hand the call back over to Rosie for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Emily. And I want to thank everyone for your interest in Devon and your participation in our call today. If you have further questions or for those of you did not get through on the call today, please reach out to Chris or myself. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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