Emerson Electric Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Emerson announced a strategic collaboration with Total Energies to deploy its enterprise operations platform and industrial data fabric, aiming to optimize operational performance and accelerate AI implementation.
  • Positive Sentiment: It launched the Ovation AI-enabled Virtual Advisor for advanced power plant diagnostics and the Nigel AI Advisor integrated into LabVIEW, underscoring progress in its industrial software portfolio.
  • Positive Sentiment: Third-quarter underlying sales grew 3% with orders up 4% (led by a 16% rise in Test & Measurement), and adjusted EPS of $1.52 alongside $970 million in free cash flow (21.3% margin) met or exceeded guidance.
  • Negative Sentiment: Easing tariff-related surcharges during the quarter meaningfully impacted third-quarter sales growth, lowering the price contribution to 2.5 points.
  • Positive Sentiment: Emerson raised its fourth-quarter outlook to 5%–6% underlying sales growth, a 27% adjusted EBITDA margin, and EPS of $1.58–1.62, and increased full-year 2025 EPS guidance to approximately $6.
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Earnings Conference Call
Emerson Electric Q3 2025
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Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Emerson Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Colleen Metler, Vice President of Investor Relations at Emerson. Please go ahead.

Colleen Mettler
Colleen Mettler
VP of IR at Emerson Electric

Good morning and thank you for joining Emerson's third quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. This morning, I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karzendai Chief Financial Officer, Mike Bachman and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishna. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website. Please turn to Slide two. This presentation may include forward looking statements, which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty.

Colleen Mettler
Colleen Mettler
VP of IR at Emerson Electric

Please take time to read the Safe Harbor statement and note on non GAAP measures. I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karzanbai, for his opening remarks.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Thank you, Karleen. Good morning, everyone. I would like to begin by thanking the global Emerson teams for delivering yet another strong quarter. With the support of Emerson's Board of Directors, we are energized by the company we have created with highly differentiated technology, serving a diverse set of industries and customers and a compelling value creation proposition for investors. Please turn to Slide three.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

In May, we hosted approximately 3,000 attendees from 51 countries at Emerson Exchange, where we showcased how Emerson is accelerating innovation to lead the future of automation. Innovation is integral to Emerson and three key product developments demonstrate the notable progress we are making to advance our world class industrial software portfolio. First, we announced a strategic collaboration with Total Energies, a significant milestone in realizing Emerson's boundless automation vision with our new enterprise operations platform. Building on a nearly thirty year relationship, Emerson will deploy our industrial data fabric to continuously collect, store and contextualize millions of real time data points from Total Energy's facilities, providing secure and unified access to data across the organization. The digital infrastructure, which also includes Emerson's advanced process control solutions, will enable Total Energy to optimize operational performance and accelerate AI implementation.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

This data fabric technology is foundational for Emerson's enterprise operations platform, the industry's first software defined, OT ready digital platform that seamlessly integrates and optimizes industrial operations. Next, we released the Ovation AI enabled Virtual Advisor, which is the first Gen AI Advisor integrated into a control system for power generation. The Ovation Virtual Advisor as part of Ovation four point zero enables advanced power plant diagnostics using Microsoft Azure OpenAI to increase productivity and operational awareness. This highly differentiated solution is driving strong traction with over 80% of upcoming modernization projects involving an upgrade to Ovation four point zero. For example, Ovation was selected by Entergy to automate power generation at two Greenfield combined cycle power plants.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Entergy today provides electricity to 3,000,000 customers and is expanding in Texas and Mississippi with two seven fifty four megawatt generation facilities. Emerson was chosen for our leading technology, local presence and enterprise scalability across multiple sites. Third, Emerson unveiled Nigel AI Advisor in its market leading test software. This innovation, the company's first step in integrating test optimized AI technology into its trusted LabVIEW portfolio, will aid engineers in unlocking the full potential of our world class software tools to address the increasing complexity of test and measurement across industries like semiconductor, transportation and electronics. Nigel can analyze, code and provide recommendations for improvements when developing and executing tests through plain language prompts, enabling engineers to focus on their own innovation and business goals.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Please turn to Slide four. Investments in automation continue to drive resilient demand in Emerson's process and hybrid markets as customers seek to modernize and improve their operations. The discrete recovery progressed further, particularly in test and measurement markets. North America, India and The Middle East and Africa have been strong, And we expect these regions to remain growth drivers with sustained investment across LNG, power and life sciences. Our Industrial Software ACV again grew double digits over the prior year and ended the quarter at $1,500,000,000 Underlying orders grew 4%, led by Test and Measurement, up 16% and with our Process and Hybrid businesses, again, up mid single digits.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

MRO remained strong at 62 of sales with software and cybersecurity upgrades driving increased activity in long term service agreements. The dynamic tariff environment persisted and our exposure was less than expected in the quarter. As the quarter progressed, we decided to ease the scope of surcharges, which meaningfully impacted our third quarter sales growth. Underlying sales growth was 3% and we delivered excellent profitability. Emerson's adjusted earnings per share of $1.52 met the top end of our guide and better than expected free cash flow generation led to a 21.3% margin.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Mike Bachman will provide additional color on the results in a few slides. Our teams are committed to completing a strong 2025 and we are pleased to see the turn in our discrete end markets. In the fourth quarter, we expect underlying sales growth of 5% to 6%, driven by further improvements in Test and Measurement and sustained growth in our Process and Hybrid businesses. We project adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27%, higher than previously planned due to the impact of lower tariff exposure with adjusted EPS of 1.58 to 1.62 As we look forward to fiscal twenty twenty six, we expect strong exit rates for underlying orders to support underlying sales within our growth framework. Additionally, we will be hosting an investor conference on November 20 in New York City.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

We look forward to talking about our transport portfolio and a differentiated value creation framework. More details will be communicated as we approach the conference. Please turn to Slide five. Emerson's demand outlook remains healthy. As expected, underlying orders in our Process and Hybrid businesses grew mid single digits in the quarter and are expected to maintain similar growth in the fourth quarter.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

The secular need for energy security and affordability is leading to significant activity in LNG across the globe. And increasing electricity demand in The Americas and Asia is driving robust activity in power. For example, underlying orders in our Ovation business were up 40 in the quarter and we expect to end the year up over 20%. We are also seeing strong demand in life sciences with customers investing in biomedicines and GLP-one drugs. The capital cycle remains constructive.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

We continue to see new investments, replenish projects booked from our 11,200,000,000 funnel. Underlying orders in our discrete businesses were up 6% in the third quarter led by Test and Measurement, which was up 16% with robust growth across all world areas. The recovery in these markets is building momentum and we expect underlying orders growth in Test and Measurement to approach 20% in the fourth quarter, supporting double digit order rates in our discrete businesses as we exit the year. Emerson has now posted two consecutive quarters of mid single digit underlying orders growth. And July was a strong start to the fourth quarter with trailing three month underlying orders growth of 6%.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

As we exit the year, we expect underlying orders growth between 57%. Please turn to slide six. Our view for full year 2025 underlying sales remains similar to what we communicated in the May earnings call. Demand trends are favorable and support our fourth quarter outlook for underlying sales growth to accelerate to 5% to 6%. We expect fourth quarter underlying sales for our Process and Hybrid businesses in the mid single digits, driven by global investment in LNG, Power and Life Sciences.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Our Discrete businesses are expected to be up double digits in the quarter, reinforced by the recovery in Test and Measurement, which is expected to be up sharply with growth in the high teens. In The Americas, we expect broad based strength in North America MRO and greenfield projects. We plan to see growth accelerate in Europe led by energy security and modernization projects coupled with recovery in discrete markets. Robust investment is expected to continue in The Middle East, India and Southeast Asia, and we expect China to be up slightly supported by Power and Marine with improving business fundamentals in test and measurement markets. We continue to see strength in customer adoption of our subscription software and expect double digit ACV growth for the full year.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Notably, ACV in AspenTech's digital grid management grew 26% in the third quarter with strong momentum across North America and Europe. Please turn to slide seven. The tariff environment continues to be dynamic. Emerson's annualized gross incremental tariff impact is now approximately $210,000,000 which is down from our prior estimate of $455,000,000 given the recent announcements. In the fiscal year, we are now expecting our gross tariff impact to be $130,000,000 versus our prior estimate of $245,000,000 After our May earnings call, the tariff environment improved as announced tariffs were paused and deals were reached with a number of trade partners.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Subsequently, due to the improved tariff environment and in consideration of our customers, we decided to ease a number of the surcharges we had in place. We now expect approximately $115,000,000 of price actions for the fiscal year, which equates to 50 basis points of incremental price. This is a half point reduction versus our prior guide. We have implemented all the price actions and supply chain mitigations to completely offset the impact of this exposure. Now I'll turn the call over to Mike Bakken.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

Thanks, Lal. Please turn to Slide eight, where I will discuss our third quarter financial results. Underlying sales growth was 3%. Growth was led by our resilient Process and Hybrid businesses, which were up 3.5% and our discrete businesses collectively turned positive, up 2% year over year. Price contributed 2.5 points in the quarter, less than previously expected due to easing some surcharges.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

Our sales fell short of guidance driven primarily by this dynamic. Underlying growth was 7% in The Americas and 2% in Asia and The Middle East and Africa, while Europe was down 7%. Software and Control grew 2% and Intelligent Devices was up 3%. Backlog increased to $7,600,000,000 and our book to bill for the quarter was one. Sequentially, backlog was up 2% in both our Process and Hybrid and Discrete businesses.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27.1% met expectations and was negatively impacted by 40 basis points due to tariffs, which primarily affected profitability in Intelligent Devices. We had strong profit contributions from Software and Control, including synergy realization at AspenTech and Test and Measurement. Operating leverage was 25% and excluding the impact of tariffs operating leverage was 38%. Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter of $1.52 grew 6% year over year and I will discuss this in more depth on the next chart. On a year to date basis, adjusted earnings per share of 4.38 is up 9% with strong operational performance contributing an incremental $0.45 Finally, Emerson generated better than expected free cash flow of $970,000,000 resulting in a margin of 21.3%.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

The cash flow performance was led by higher earnings and improvements in working capital. Year to date, free cash flow is up 20% versus the prior year and at a margin of 18%. Please turn to Slide nine. Emerson executed well again in Q3. Operations added $09 versus the prior year adjusted earnings per share of $1.43 Software and Control added $06 and Intelligent Devices added $03 The AspenTech buy in was slightly accretive in the quarter driven by synergy realization.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

Non operating items netted to zero as share count and other favorability offset a zero two dollars headwind from FX and a $02 headwind from pension. Overall, adjusted EPS grew 6% year on year to $1.52 Please turn to Slide 10 for additional details on our fourth quarter and full year 2025 guidance. We expect fourth quarter underlying sales growth of 5% to 6% supported by meaningful acceleration in Test and Measurement, sustained healthy pace of business in our Process and Hybrid businesses, a strong backlog position as we enter the quarter and expected incremental tariff related revenue. Adjusted segment EBITDA is expected to be approximately 27%, up 80 basis points over the prior year with operating leverage of approximately 40%. With this, we expect to land adjusted earnings per share between $1.58 and $1.62 a strong year over year growth of 7% to 10%.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

For the full year, we expect underlying sales to be up approximately 3.5%. Price is now expected to contribute approximately 2.5 points of growth versus three points in the prior guide due to decreased tariff exposure resulting in lower surcharges. We are increasing adjusted segment EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 27.5% with operating leverage of approximately 70%. Adjusted EPS is increased at the midpoint to approximately $6 per share. Free cash flow was also increased approximately $3,200,000,000 resulting in a margin of approximately 18 Free percent, which includes $200,000,000 of transaction related headwinds.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

With that, we will now turn the call over to the operator for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. Thank Thank you. You. And the first question is from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Jeffrey Sprague
Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners

Hey, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning, Jeff.

Jeffrey Sprague
Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners

Good morning. Hey, I thought you were going with Jeffrey for the AI advisor. Just kidding. Hey, could we just maybe just sort of touch on the margins again and sort of Intelligent Devices in particular? So I kind of get the tariff math, but dollar sales were actually up in the quarter sequentially and dollar profits were down sequentially.

Jeffrey Sprague
Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners

So could we just unpack that a little bit? Were you technically behind on price cost relative to tariffs in the quarter and expecting to catch that up in Q4 or maybe there's something going on in mix or else otherwise?

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

Yes. Jeff, thanks for the question. The Intelligent Devices, you're right, 24.425% with the adjusted EBITDA margin down about 1.1 points. And there was a meaningful impact of tariffs, which we expected, but there was also a meaningful impact with FX included in there that really wasn't expected that drove that down. When you take those two out, it's up 20 basis points.

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

The other thing to bear in mind is that the tariffs largely hit that group. There isn't nearly as much tariffs Control Systems and Software. So that's where you see all of that tariff math reading through for the most part. There's some in the other, but it's primarily there. So the unexpected piece was the FX, which is FX to be clear of balance sheet exposures that then get mark to market and that is in the segment EBITDA margins.

Jeffrey Sprague
Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners

Yes, great. Thanks for clarifying that. Yes, was surprised FX was a headwind on that bridge given you got a translation positive, but the hedge is working through. Understood. And then maybe just on Test and Measurement, the inflection that you're seeing there, how would you kind of characterize vertical markets that might be driving that?

Jeffrey Sprague
Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners

Is it broad based? Is it concentrated in a few areas? If there's any geographic color to add, I'd be interested in that also.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. No, I'll comment Jeff and I'll let Ram add as well. No, we saw a very broad based recovery across all segments and all world areas in Test and Measurement. I'll suggest that the encouraging segment recovery portfolio business, which is the vast array of thousands of customers with a diversified end market basis and gives us the best indication of the recovery in the market. But in addition to that, aerospace defense continued to remain strong as it has been for a number of quarters now.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

But the recovery in semiconductor and of course, easy comparisons in automotive made it possible to have a positive order number across all four of the segments. Ron?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. And just to add to that from world area or region of the world perspective, Asia being the strongest, they went down first. So they're recovering, rebounding very strong. China has been actually very good in terms of recovery as well, followed by North America and then Europe. So I think as Walt said, every segment and every world area is strongly positive.

Jeffrey Sprague
Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners

That's great to hear. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Thank you, Jeff.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Tusa
Steve Tusa
Managing Director at JP Morgan

Hi, good morning.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning, Steve.

Steve Tusa
Steve Tusa
Managing Director at JP Morgan

Can you just maybe talk about how you saw the quarter play out? I think you guys said the orders in April were up seven percent and I think you may have exited at a bit of a lower rate, maybe May was weak and June came back. Just maybe some color on how these orders trended in May and June?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. We felt strongly about the mid single digit exit rate that we talked about at the beginning of the quarter. And there were some puts and takes as we went through in terms of timing speed, which we always have on some of the orders. You can see some of it slipped into July, some of it might have been pulled for some just large capital bookings. What remained very consistent throughout the quarter was our MRO bookings.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

That there was really no fluctuation there, and that gave us a really good basis. And then we had the capital fluctuations come in and out just based on timing.

Steve Tusa
Steve Tusa
Managing Director at JP Morgan

Okay. And then just as we move into next year from a kind of software perspective, always tough for us to model that. Is anything next year with regards to the comps at Aspen or anything like that from a growth perspective that we should keep in mind?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

No. I think from an Aspen perspective, certainly ACV continues in terms of high single digit growth into double digits as some of the synergies come through. So nothing in terms of ACV from an Aspen perspective that is concerning. And then certainly as it relates to our other businesses, the Process segment will remain pretty consistent at mid single digits with recovering discrete.

Steve Tusa
Steve Tusa
Managing Director at JP Morgan

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Kaplowitz
Andrew Kaplowitz
Managing Director at Citi

Hey, good morning everyone.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning,

Andrew Kaplowitz
Andrew Kaplowitz
Managing Director at Citi

Lal, just a little bit more on your core process in hybrid markets. I know you expected mid single digit order growth, that's what you got. If you look at the business or the end markets, you expect stability or maybe slight improvement moving forward. How do you get that? Is it all from power and LNG?

Andrew Kaplowitz
Andrew Kaplowitz
Managing Director at Citi

And maybe you could talk about some of the weaker markets, what you're seeing like in chemical stabilization there, still getting weaker. How look do at it?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. No, certainly, LNG, power generation and life sciences will continue to fuel process hybrid on a forward basis here, given the visibility we currently have. And we feel very positive about the underlying drivers across all three of those. Chemical is a mixed story. We actually are doing quite well in specialty chemicals.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

The bulk chemical story is negatively impacted in Europe and in China. And we just have a demand condition and an overcapacity condition that impacts those end markets. And so those are negative for us. But just about as I look forward into 2026, certainly, I expect the momentum to continue as capacity is invested, not just to meet the energy security needs, but also to nationalize, localize manufacturing of drugs and of course the enormous expansion we have in generation and transmission distribution capacity.

Andrew Kaplowitz
Andrew Kaplowitz
Managing Director at Citi

Got you. And then just back to Test and Measurement. I know, while you've been working on sort of the commercialization of growth there. So maybe you can talk about how much of the improvement is the markets, as you answered Jeff's question, but maybe just your own self help and where you are in that process of improving the business. Obviously, you mentioned LabVIEW in the presentation is outperforming. So maybe you could talk about that as well.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes, I will and I'll let Ram jump in here as well. Look, so much work has been done Andy as you know by this team led by Ram and Ritu Fabre and they've done an exceptional job resetting this company to address and to be a quick, more nimble respondent to market opportunities. So certainly, have seen market recovery, underlying market recovery, which fuels, but we believe that we're outperforming the market. And that is based on not just the reset of the commercial focus in the company, but also in the new products that we're bringing to market. And the example I highlighted with LabVIEW is a new generation, new incremental product in the marketplace.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

And I think that's going to make a big difference across the segments. John?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. You said it, Lal. I think the focus on new products, I think, as Lal said, LabVIEW, the software suite, they're launching a new DAC or a data acquisition product, which I think is a core capability that NI and NI customers were expecting. So I think that's going to be a net positive. But also on the commercial side, going back to the basics as it relates to country specific growth plans, they have great exposure in many, many parts of the world.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

And going back to the basics and developing go to market plans and growth initiatives, Simple things, but hugely important as the market recovers, where our management system deployed is helping NI grow faster than the market, and that's clearly evident in the pace of business we're seeing.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Appreciate it guys.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question. Hey, good morning guys.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning, Scott.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO & Founding Partner – Multi-Industry Research at Melius Research LLC

Want to talk a little bit about Ovation if you don't mind and just maybe some of this is just going to be reeducating us on kind of how this how you guys make money there. But when you talk about like orders up 40%, is this all new projects? Is it a mix of retrofit new projects? How do you kind of guys think about what goes into a new does a retrofit go into a new order example? And then I got Yes. A follow-up on that

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

No, certainly, are a couple of categories there. There is new project new construction. I highlighted the Entergy combined cycle plans as an example. Those typically have long lead times. You book, you do the engineering work, construction begins, you start driving the automation in.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

There are extension of life in plants that say we're seeing that in combined cycle and coal and in nuclear in The United States and Asia. And then largely and then lastly, there are modernizations, where whether it's for cybersecurity purposes, AI purposes or other plans put in new control systems and upgrade their Ovation. All three of those, Scott, as you know, our bookings, they all have different implications to the ship ratio given the time it takes to implement and build. Ram, any?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. You said it. I think traditionally, the power industry for us has been one of competitive displacement. As you know, greenfield opportunities have really picked up in the recent past. But over the years we've owned this, it was a competitive displacement story.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

But what is certainly a net positive for us is the greenfield capacity investment and combined cycle happening in The U. S. To fuel the power needs for the data centers. But certainly markets like China as well, there's significant level of greenfield activity and we're capitalizing on that with the technology position we have in Ovation. So all three aspects of the business, greenfield, modernizations as well as continued MRO and competitive displacement is fueling the order growth, which will convert to sales over the next couple of years.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO & Founding Partner – Multi-Industry Research at Melius Research LLC

Okay. And are those installs profitable? I mean how do you is it more of a loss leader and then you make money over time on the subscription? Or do you make money on the install as well?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

We make money on the install. We make more money on the aftermarket. It's the standard formula we've described in the past. I mean, there's a margin delta between when we win the project, greenfield and modernization and then ongoing MRO is a very profitable revenue stream.

Scott Davis
Chairman, CEO & Founding Partner – Multi-Industry Research at Melius Research LLC

Okay. Helpful. Thank you guys. I'll pass it on.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Thank you.

Operator

The next questions are from the line of Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo

Hi. Good morning.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo

Can you talk through Control Systems and Software a little bit? We saw really good organic growth there last quarter, this quarter more in that kind of low mid single digit range. Just talk about kind of what you saw within Aspen and then Controls, and how you're thinking about that growth into the fourth quarter?

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

Hey, Joe, I'll start this one. Yes, remember last quarter we talked about the Total deal pulling into Q2, which would have been in Q3 and Aspen's Emerson Q3 there Q4 was traditionally their biggest. So we have that movement. But underlying Aspen ACV growth and continued revenue growth very strong this year. And then the systems business continues to do very well in the mid single digits and continues to see all the dynamics that Lal and Ram have talked about.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. Yes, I think you said it. I think overall from a full year perspective, single digit growth plus in the systems and software business. But as Mike described, the lumpiness associated with how Aspen recognizes ASC six zero six with project lumpiness and how we execute within systems and software will have variations from one quarter to the next. But overall, we feel very, very good about the high end of the 4% to 7% range for underlying growth in our systems and software business.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo

Great. That's helpful. And then just a little bit more color on the discrete side of the business and kind of contrasting Test and Measurement with legacy discrete.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo

You did see order acceleration there in Test and Measurement. It looks like discrete orders may be pacing more flattish. And so what you're seeing in the different demand trends there and your expectation for kind of legacy discrete recovery?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

I'll start off and Ram can add some color. So there are two very important dimensions of the legacy discrete, Joe, that differ from custom measurement. The first is exposure to automotive and packaging businesses, particularly in Western Europe and China. And both of those markets continue to be relatively depressed and challenging. And that certainly dampened the recovery there.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Offset, of course, by some of the more traditional broad based industrials, which have impacted positively, but generally speaking, a much more muted and you're right, slightly positive as they came out of the quarter, but significantly more muted than the broad based applications and market exposures that the Test and Measurement business has.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. And I think the outsized market exposure for us in Europe, which has been the slowest market to recover for our traditional discrete business, factory automation piece versus test and measurement points to the disparity in the pace and amplitude of recovery. But as Lal described, I think the automotive segment and then factory automation as it relates to Europe and China have more muted recovery than many of the markets in Test and Measurement.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Obin
Andrew Obin
MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Hi, yes. Good morning.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Obin
Andrew Obin
MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Just a broader question and good morning to everyone. Just a broader question on your power vertical. You sort of enter the power cycle with sort of very material endowment in terms of market share. The Ovation orders up nicely. Clearly, the Aspen Grid business is doing very well.

Andrew Obin
Andrew Obin
MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

What do you think is sustainable growth rate going forward? Can it stay elevated for the next, I don't know, to twenty four months given what's happening in the power gen industry broadly?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I'll comment in if Ram or Mike have something to add. I certainly believe it can based on the visibility we have of opportunity across both markets, generation and transmission distribution. And I think it's sustainable in the high teens kind of range over the next couple of years.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

As a matter of fact, we'll probably highlight this market and when we all get together in New York City in November as a growth factor for the company because the dollar spend that we're seeing and it's not just a U. S. Story, obviously, is very meaningful and impactful. As Ram described, it's been a significant shift for this team, which had been a as you noted, it's a high participation rate company to begin with, but essentially grew over the last twenty years by driving competitive displacement. And now we've refocused the team really around Project Pursuit and expansion of market.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

And so we see that momentum. We're very close to our customers because of that very large participation in the business. And we are very optimistic about the next twenty four months at high rates of growth, Rob.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. And to add to that, our customer intimacy in this business is very high. Based on I mean, Bob Yeager, who runs this business, has great relationships with a lot of the major power companies here in The U. S. And certainly, I think their plans for continued investment and capacity expansion in combined cycle and then certainly the digital grid management space on the T and D side supports an investment cycle that goes well beyond two years.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Now obviously, you can't call well beyond two years, but certainly for the next two years, we feel that the funnel is very, very strong on both sides, both generation as well as transmission and distribution. And so we expect these type of growth rates to continue.

Andrew Obin
Andrew Obin
MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Excellent. Thanks so much. And then just looking at where we are in the cycle, I think the narrative from a lot of companies back in the spring, early summer was that tariffs are really impacting the ability of companies to sign off on large projects. I think with 65% of U. S.

Andrew Obin
Andrew Obin
MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Trading partners sort of having some form of agreement with The U. S, How has the dialogue with your customers changed? Are you getting more visibility? What does the funnel look like? What's the likelihood of large projects actually being released into the calendar year and in early twenty twenty six? Thank you.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. So Andrew, Ram here. We haven't from our perspective, certainly in LNG, Power, Life Sciences, which is the majority of our project funnel that we continue to drive, we have seen no slowdown in decision making or approvals to move projects forward. So I think that's the most important data point. Now certainly, in terms of some of the sustainability projects in our funnel, and that's not necessarily tariff related, we have seen some project cancellations that have impacted the overall size of our funnel, but not in a meaningful fashion.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

But the most important thing is where we see the growth in LNG, power, life sciences and certainly even in The U. S. Chemical, petrochemical projects and all of the activity in The Middle East, no slowdown and we continue to yield $350,000,000 to $400,000,000 of project wins a quarter from our $11,200,000,000 funnel that has been consistent with what we've experienced in the last several quarters.

Andrew Obin
Andrew Obin
MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Thanks. Good morning. And for the point of doubt this is not the chatbot, this is the real person.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. We honored you with that.

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

There you go. It's great. I hope it's got a British accent.

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Okay. So look, I think that when we you've talked about the order push outs. So I just thought maybe we could just double click into sort of the second half order rates. It looks to be mid singles. I think you were pointing to high single digit order rates in the second half of the year.

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

So just wondering if you maybe just double click into where you've seen some of the push outs. I'm guessing some of the energy transition projects have either canceled or pushed out. And then maybe talk about the North American greenfields. Clearly, and some of the other verticals you talked about. But I'm wondering, are we starting to see some of these reassuring announcements bearing fruit in terms of orders?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. So first of all, I did not talk about order push outs, Nigel. That was not one of the elements that we experienced in the quarter. There were dynamics around timing of bookings. Some came earlier in the quarter, some came in July, but we didn't see any dimension of push outs on bookings on capital.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

And as I mentioned in a prior comment, the MRO activity and booking pace on MRO, which is, as you know, 62% of the business was very steady throughout the quarter. Ram, why don't you comment on the greenfields?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. I think the greenfields in which is LNG greenfields, power greenfield, life sciences greenfield and even activity in chemical and ethylene and methanol continue to be positive for us in North America. So no push outs, no slowdowns there. I think you may have picked up on the point. In terms of our funnel, we've seen some moves in sustainability and decarbonization projects in the funnel, but these are not in the quarter or near term type projects.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

So that was maybe the commentary you picked up. But in terms of greenfield activity, we stay very, very positive on the movement of these projects in North America.

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

Yes. Sorry about that. The chatbot gave me the wrong information there. So moving on to the discrete automation, so the discrete and test measurements outlook, clearly we're hitting some really deeply favorable comps here. So we've got a mathematical uplift on comps, but are we seeing a genuine increase in investment from your customers?

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

So that's the first part of my second question. And just maybe just touch on this FX pinch to margins. Do you think that's going to be a factor in 4Q as well?

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

I'll take the second part of that Nigel. We are not planning for the FX pinch on margins in the fourth quarter.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. And in terms of the discrete markets, mean for us obviously the custom measurement growth rates certainly drove a majority of the discrete recovery in terms of momentum. Certainly, many markets within Test and Measurement is an inflection. For example, our largest single market is aerospace and defense, And that will see and as per the recent announcement, continued momentum in spending across the globe, certainly in Europe and North America where we have the best presence. So certainly that's an inflection.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Semiconductors, both RF and mixed signal, which is where we play, there'll be validation investment, R and D investment as well as capacity investment. And then the broad based T and M recovery is more a sign of markets getting more confident about the pace of investments and our distributors and integrators restocking on NI. So yes, I would say many parts of our discrete market have inflection points and sustained recovery. But certainly the ones we're watching are factory automation investments out of Germany and China where we haven't seen sustained inflection yet.

Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Deane Dray
Deane Dray
Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. Good morning,

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Good morning, Deane.

Deane Dray
Deane Dray
Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets

Hey, when we were at the Emerson Exchange in San Antonio, we saw that demo of Ovation AI. And can just remind us, is this still in beta test? Has it been launched? And it was interesting, the first application, I guess, it's not surprising, it's PowerGen. What's the plan for the rollout for other applications?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

Yes. No, I noted that on Slide three, Deane, that Ovation Virtual Advisor has been launched and it's integrated in Ovation four point zero. So that's out in the marketplace and we're it's off to a very good looking start already. I'll give an example also of Entergy, which is building two combined cycle seven fifty four megawatt power plants, Mississippi and Texas and they're using the technology. So there's a really good customer adoption there already on that product that you saw as a demo.

Deane Dray
Deane Dray
Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets

Good to hear. And then in your Q this morning, there's a reference to the one big beautiful bill talking about the accelerated depreciation that you're saying it would not be a meaningful impact for Emerson. Can you just clarify, is that a reference to your own CapEx? And what about customer CapEx? With all this reshoring, there could be some benefit there, if you just clarify?

Mike Baughman
Mike Baughman
EVP & CFO at Emerson Electric

You are correct. That is a reference to ours. And you're also correct that it certainly could be benefit to our customers as they think about CapEx. And just to expand on that a little bit, the provisions of the One Big Beautiful bill are generally favorable for Emerson, avoiding some downsides that were in the outlook as part of TCJA and changing some rates there that will be helpful modestly helpful as we move forward.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Nicole Deblase
Nicole Deblase
Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Good morning.

Nicole Deblase
Nicole Deblase
Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank

I just wanted to ask about the order outlook for 4Q. I think previously it was up high singles. Now we're looking at 5% to 7% growth. Was that driven by a revision in the factory automation outlook? Can you guys just elaborate a bit there?

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

No. Look, the process hybrid has remained very consistent for us in terms of outlook. We are still expecting that to exit in the mid single digits as we were prior. Discrete recovery has been very, very encouraging as we went through the quarter and you saw Nicole. So double digit exit rate there, still expected.

Lal Karsanbhai
Lal Karsanbhai
President, CEO & Director at Emerson Electric

And then safety productivity, there's some comps in there, but lower single digits on that one. And so it's a mix of the different things, 5% to seven but it's I guess it's mid to mid single high. I don't know how you define it, Nicole, but it still falls in that band of expectation that we had.

Nicole Deblase
Nicole Deblase
Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Okay. Understood. Yes, that's fair. And then just follow-up on the margin outlook for 4Q. I think you guys said about 27% EBITA margins.

Nicole Deblase
Nicole Deblase
Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Usually margins stepped down a little bit sequentially in the fourth quarter. Is the divergence versus normal seasonality just driven by the moving pieces around tariffs?

Ram Krishnan
Ram Krishnan
Executive VP & COO at Emerson Electric

Yes. I think for us in the fourth quarter, as if you're talking versus Q3, the fact that we're holding at that 27% clearly is an indication of tariff related pricing getting more favorable in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. We always planned it that way that we would implement the pricing actions in Q3. We'd have a little bit of a headwind as it relates to them fully offsetting tariffs, but then we'll get totally green, as we call it, into Q4. And hence Q4 margin is very solid, up 80 basis points year over year and sequentially flat to Q3.

Nicole Deblase
Nicole Deblase
Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, this will conclude our question and answer session and also conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

Executives
    • Colleen Mettler
      Colleen Mettler
      VP of IR
    • Lal Karsanbhai
      Lal Karsanbhai
      President, CEO & Director
    • Mike Baughman
      Mike Baughman
      EVP & CFO
    • Ram Krishnan
      Ram Krishnan
      Executive VP & COO
Analysts
    • Jeffrey Sprague
      Founder & Managing Partner at Vertical Research Partners
    • Steve Tusa
      Managing Director at JP Morgan
    • Andrew Kaplowitz
      Managing Director at Citi
    • Scott Davis
      Chairman, CEO & Founding Partner – Multi-Industry Research at Melius Research LLC
    • Joseph O'Dea
      Managing Director at Wells Fargo
    • Andrew Obin
      MD - Equity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    • Nigel Coe
      Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC
    • Deane Dray
      Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets
    • Nicole Deblase
      Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank
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