Emerson Electric Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Emerson announced a strategic collaboration with Total Energies to deploy its enterprise operations platform and industrial data fabric, aiming to optimize operational performance and accelerate AI implementation.
  • Positive Sentiment: It launched the Ovation AI-enabled Virtual Advisor for advanced power plant diagnostics and the Nigel AI Advisor integrated into LabVIEW, underscoring progress in its industrial software portfolio.
  • Positive Sentiment: Third-quarter underlying sales grew 3% with orders up 4% (led by a 16% rise in Test & Measurement), and adjusted EPS of $1.52 alongside $970 million in free cash flow (21.3% margin) met or exceeded guidance.
  • Negative Sentiment: Easing tariff-related surcharges during the quarter meaningfully impacted third-quarter sales growth, lowering the price contribution to 2.5 points.
  • Positive Sentiment: Emerson raised its fourth-quarter outlook to 5%–6% underlying sales growth, a 27% adjusted EBITDA margin, and EPS of $1.58–1.62, and increased full-year 2025 EPS guidance to approximately $6.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Emerson Electric Q3 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Speaker 6

Good morning and welcome to the Emerson third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press Star 0 from your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. If you'd like to ask a question at that time, you may press Star 1 from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star 2 if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations at Emerson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning and thank you for joining Emerson's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call this morning. I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer Lal Karsanbhai, Chief Financial Officer Mike Baughman, and Chief Operating Officer Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation which is available on our website. Please turn to slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the Safe Harbor statement and note on non-GAAP measures. I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai for his opening remarks.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning everyone. I would like to begin by thanking the global Emerson teams for delivering yet another strong quarter with the support of Emerson's Board of Directors. We are energized by the company we have created with highly differentiated technology serving a diverse set of industries and customers and a compelling value creation proposition for investors. Please turn to slide 3. In May, we hosted approximately 3,000 attendees from 51 countries at Emerson Exchange, where we showcased how Emerson is accelerating innovation to lead the future of automation. Innovation is integral to Emerson, and three key product developments demonstrate the notable progress we are making to advance our world-class industrial software portfolio. First, we announced a strategic collaboration with TotalEnergies, a significant milestone in realizing Emerson's boundless automation vision with our new Enterprise Operations Platform.

Speaker 8

Building on a nearly 30-year relationship, Emerson will deploy our Industrial Data Fabric to continuously collect data, store, and contextualize millions of real-time data points from TotalEnergies' facilities, providing secure and unified access to data across the organization. The digital infrastructure, which also includes Emerson's advanced process control solutions, will enable TotalEnergies to optimize operational performance and accelerate AI implementation. This data fabric technology is foundational for Emerson's Enterprise Operations Platform, the industry's first software-defined OT-ready digital platform that seamlessly integrates and optimizes industrial operations. Next, we released the Ovation AI-enabled Virtual Advisor, which is the first gen AI advisor integrated into a control system for power generation. The Ovation Virtual Advisor, as part of Ovation 4.0, enables advanced power plant diagnostics using Microsoft Azure OpenAI to increase productivity and operational awareness.

Speaker 8

This highly differentiated solution is driving strong traction with over 80% of upcoming modernization projects involving an upgrade to Ovation 4.0. For example, Ovation was selected by Entergy to automate power generation at 2 greenfield combined cycle power plants. Entergy today provides electricity to 3 million customers and is expanding in Texas and Mississippi with two 754-megawatt generation facilities. Emerson was chosen for our leading technology, local presence, and enterprise scalability across multiple sites. Third, Emerson unveiled Nigel AI Advisor in its market leading test software. This innovation, the company's first step in integrating test optimized AI technology into its trusted LabVIEW portfolio, will aid engineers in unlocking the full potential of our world class software tools to address the increasing complexity of test and measurement across industries like semiconductor, transportation, and electronics.

Speaker 8

Nigel can analyze code and provide recommendations for improvements when developing and executing tests through plain language prompts, enabling engineers to focus on their own innovation and business goals. Please turn to Slide 4. Investments in automation continue to drive resilient demand in Emerson's process and hybrid markets as customers seek to modernize and improve their operations. The discrete recovery progressed further, particularly in test and measurement markets. North America, India, and the Middle East and Africa have been strong, and we expect these regions to remain growth drivers with sustained investment across LNG, power, and life sciences. Our industrial software ACV again grew double digits over the prior year and ended the quarter at $1.5 billion. Underlying orders grew 4%, led by test and measurement up 16% and with our process and hybrid businesses again up mid single digits.

Speaker 8

MRO remains strong at 62% of sales with software and cybersecurity upgrades driving increased activity in long term service agreements. The dynamic tariff environment persisted, and our exposure was less than expected in the quarter. As the quarter progressed, we decided to ease the scope of surcharges, which meaningfully impacted our third quarter sales growth. Underlying sales growth was 3%, and we delivered excellent profitability. Emerson's adjusted earnings per share of $1.52 met the top end of our guide, and better than expected free cash flow generation led to a 21.3% margin. Mike Baughman will provide additional color on the results in a few slides. Our teams are committed to completing a strong 2025, and we are pleased to see the turn in our discrete end markets.

Speaker 8

In the fourth quarter, we expect underlying sales growth of 5% to 6% driven by further improvements in test and measurement and sustained growth in our process and hybrid businesses. We project adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27%, higher than previously planned due to the impact of lower tariff exposure, with adjusted EPS of $1.58 to $1.62. As we look forward to fiscal 2026, we expect strong exit rates for underlying orders to support underlying sales within our growth framework. Additionally, we will be hosting an investor conference on November 20 in New York City. We look forward to talking about our transformed portfolio and a differentiated value creation framework. More details will be communicated as we approach the conference. Please turn to Slide 5. Emerson's demand outlook remains healthy as expected.

Speaker 8

Underlying orders in our process and hybrid businesses grew mid single digits in the quarter and are expected to maintain similar growth in the fourth quarter. The secular need for energy security and affordability is leading to significant activity in LNG across the globe, and increasing electricity demand in the Americas and Asia is driving robust activity in power. For example, underlying orders in our Ovation business were up 40% in the quarter, and we expect to end the year up over 20%. We are also seeing strong demand in life sciences with customers investing in biomedicines and GLP1 drugs. The capital cycle remains constructive. We continue to see new investments replenish projects booked from our $11.2 billion funnel. Underlying orders in our discrete businesses were up 6% in the third quarter, led by test and measurement, which was up 16%. We need robust growth across all world areas.

Speaker 8

The recovery in these markets is building momentum, and we expect underlying orders growth in test and measurement to approach 20% in the fourth quarter, supporting double digit order rates in our discrete businesses as we exit the year. Emerson has now posted two consecutive quarters of mid single digit underlying orders growth, and July was a strong start to the fourth quarter with trailing three month underlying orders growth of 6%. As we exit the year, we expect underlying orders growth between 5% and 7%. Please turn to Slide 6. Our view for full year 2025 underlying sales remains similar to what we communicated in the May earnings call. Demand trends are favorable and support our fourth quarter outlook for underlying sales growth to accelerate to 5% to 6%.

Speaker 8

We expect fourth quarter underlying sales for our process and hybrid businesses in the mid single digits, driven by global investment in LNG, power, and life sciences. Our discrete businesses are expected to be up double digits in the quarter, reinforced by the recovery in test and measurement which is expected to be up sharply with growth in the high teens in the Americas. We expect broad-based strength in North America MRO and greenfield projects. We plan to see growth accelerate in Europe, led by energy security and modernization projects, coupled with recovery in discrete markets. Robust investment is expected to continue in the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia, and we expect China to be up slightly, supported by Power and Marine with improving business fundamentals in test and measurement markets.

Speaker 8

We continue to see strength in customer adoption of our subscription software and expect double-digit ACV growth for the full year. Notably, ACV in AspenTech digital grid management grew 26% in the third quarter with strong momentum across North America and Europe. Please turn to slide 7. The tariff environment continues to be dynamic. Emerson's annualized gross incremental tariff impact is now approximately $210 million, which is down from our prior estimate of $455 million. Given the recent announcements in the fiscal year, we are now expecting our gross tariff impact to be $130 million versus our prior estimate of $245 million. After our May earnings call, the tariff environment improved as announced, tariffs were paused and deals were reached with a number of trade partners.

Speaker 8

Subsequently, due to the improved tariff environment and in consideration of our customers, we decided to ease a number of the surcharges we had in place. We now expect approximately $150 million of price actions for the fiscal year, which equates to 50 basis points of incremental price. This is a half point reduction versus our prior guide. We have implemented all the price actions and supply chain mitigations to completely offset the impact of this exposure. Now I'll turn the call over to Mark Bulanda. Thanks, Lal.

Speaker 2

Please turn to slide 8 where I will discuss our third quarter financial results. Underlying sales growth was 3%. Growth was led by our resilient process and hybrid businesses which were up 3.5% and our discrete businesses collectively turned positive, up 2% year over year. Price contributed 2.5 points in the quarter, less than previously expected due to easing some surcharges. Our sales fell short of guidance, driven primarily by this dynamic. Underlying growth was 7% in the Americas and 2% in Asia and the Middle East and Africa, while Europe was down 7%. Software and Control grew 2% and Intelligent Devices was up 3%. Backlog increased to $7.6 billion and our book to bill for the quarter was 1. Sequentially, backlog was up 2% in both our process and hybrid and discrete businesses.

Speaker 2

Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 27.1% met expectations and was negatively impacted by 40 basis points due to tariffs, which primarily affected profitability in Intelligent Devices. We had strong profit contributions from Software and Control, including synergy realization at AspenTech and test and measurement. Operating leverage was 25% and, excluding the impact of tariffs, operating leverage was 38%. Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter of $1.52 grew 6% year over year and I will discuss this in more depth on the next chart. On a year to date basis, adjusted earnings per share of $4.38 is up 9% with strong operational performance contributing an incremental $0.45. Finally, Emerson generated better than expected free cash flow of $970 million, resulting in a margin of 21.3%. The cash flow performance was led by higher earnings and improvements in working capital year to date.

Speaker 2

Free cash flow is up 20% versus the prior year and at a margin of 18%. Please turn to slide 9. Emerson executed well again in Q3; operations added $0.09 versus the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.43, Software and Control added $0.06 and Intelligent Devices added $0.03. The AspenTech buy-in was slightly accretive in the quarter, driven by synergy realization. Non-operating items netted to zero as share count and other favorability offset a $0.02 headwind from FX and a $0.02 headwind from PE. Overall, adjusted EPS grew 6% year on year to $1.52. Please turn to slide 10 for additional details on our fourth quarter and full year 2025 guidance.

Speaker 2

We expect fourth quarter underlying sales growth of 5 to 6% supported by meaningful acceleration in test and measurement, sustained healthy pace of business in our process and hybrid businesses, a strong backlog position as we enter the quarter, and expected incremental tariff-related revenue. Adjusted segment EBITDA is expected to be approximately 27%, up 80 basis points over the prior year with operating leverage of approximately 40%. With this, we expect to land adjusted earnings per share between $1.58 and $1.62, a strong year-over-year growth of 7 to 10%. For the full year, we expect underlying sales to be up approximately 3.5%. Price is now expected to contribute approximately 2.5 points of growth versus 3 points in the prior guide due to decreased tariff exposure resulting in lower surcharges. We are increasing adjusted segment EBITDA margin guidance to approximately 27.5% with operating leverage of approximately 70%.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EPS is increased at the midpoint to approximately $6 per share. Free cash flow was also increased to approximately $3.2 billion, resulting in a margin of approximately 18%, which includes $200 million of transaction-related headwinds. With that, we will now turn the call over to the operator for Q and A.

Speaker 6

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star 1 from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, for our first question.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

The first question is from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 8

Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Jeff.

Speaker 8

Good morning.

Speaker 8

Hey, I thought you were going with.

Speaker 6

Jeffrey for the Nigel AI Advisor.

Operator

Just kidding.

Operator

Could we just maybe sort of touch on the margins again and sort of intelligent devices in particular? I kind of get the tariff math, but dollar sales were actually up in the quarter sequentially and dollar profits were down sequentially. Can we just unpack that a little bit? Were you technically behind on price cost relative to tariffs in the quarter and expecting to catch that up in Q4? Maybe there's something going on in mix or else otherwise.

Operator

Yes.

Speaker 2

Jeff, thanks for the question. The intelligent devices, you're right. 2024, 2024 and 2025 with the adjusted EBITDA margin down about 1.1 points. There was a meaningful impact of tariffs, which we expected. There was also a meaningful impact with FX included in there that really wasn't expected.

Operator

That drove that down.

Speaker 2

When you take those two out, it's up 20 basis points. The other thing to bear in mind.

Operator

The tariffs largely hit that group.

Speaker 2

There isn't nearly as much tariffs in control systems and software. That's where you see all of that tariff math reading through for them. For the most part, there's some in the, it's primarily there. The unexpected piece was the FX, which is FX, to be clear, of balance sheet exposures that then get marked to market, and that is in the segment EBITDA margins.

Speaker 6

Yeah, great.

Speaker 6

Thanks for clarifying that. I was surprised FX was a headwind on that bridge given you got a translation positive. The hedge is working through. Understood. Maybe just on test and measurement, the inflection that you're seeing there, how would you kind of characterize vertical markets that might be driving that? Is it broad based, is it concentrated in a few areas? If there's any geographic color to add, be interested in that also.

Speaker 8

Yeah, I'll comment, Jeff, and I'll let Ram add as well. We saw a very broad-based recovery across all segments and all world areas in test and measurement. I'll suggest that the most encouraging segment recovery has been in the portfolio business, which is the vast array of thousands of customers with a diversified end market basis and gives us the best indication of the recovery in the market. In addition to that, aerospace defense continues to remain strong as it has been for a number of quarters now. The recovery in semiconductor and of course easy comparisons in automotive made it possible to have a positive order number across all Florida segments. Ram?

Operator

Yeah, just to add to that, from a world area or region of the world perspective, Asia being the strongest, they went down first, so they're recovering, rebounding very strong. China has been actually very good in terms of recovery as well, followed by North America and then Europe. I think, as Lal said, every segment and every world area is strongly positive.

Speaker 6

That's great to hear. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Speaker 8

Thank you, Jeff.

Speaker 6

Our next question is from the line of Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Steve, can you just maybe talk about.

Operator

How did you see the quarter play out?

Speaker 8

I think you guys said the orders in April were up 7% and I think you may have exited at a.

Operator

Bit of a lower rate.

Speaker 8

Maybe May was weak and June came back, just maybe some color on how these orders trended in May and June. Yeah, you know, we felt strongly about that mid single digit exit rate that we talked about at the beginning of the quarter. There were some puts and takes as we went through in terms of timing, Steve, which you always have on some of the orders. You can see some of it slipped into July, some of it might have been pulled or on some just large capital bookings. What remained very consistent throughout the quarter was our MRO bookings; there was really no fluctuation there, and that gave us a really good basis. We had the capital fluctuations come in and out just based on timing. Okay. Just as we move into next year from a kind of software.

Operator

Perspective, always tough for us to model.

Speaker 8

That is anything next year with regards to the comps at AspenTech or anything.

Operator

Like that, from a growth perspective.

Speaker 8

We should keep in mind?

Operator

No, I think from an AspenTech perspective certainly ACV continues in terms of high single digit growth into double digits.

Speaker 2

Some of the synergies come through.

Operator

Nothing in terms of ACV from an AspenTech perspective is concerning. Certainly, as it relates to our other businesses, the process segment will remain pretty consistent at mid single digits with recovering discrete.

Speaker 8

Okay, great, thanks.

Speaker 6

Our next question is from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning everyone.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Andy.

Speaker 8

Just a little bit more on your core process and hybrid markets. I know you expected mid single digit order growth. That's what you got. If you look at the business or the end markets, you expect stability or maybe slight improvement moving forward. How do you get that? Is it all from power and LNG? Maybe you could talk about some of the weaker markets. What you're seeing, like in chemical stabilization, are they still getting weaker? How do you look at it?

Speaker 8

Yeah, no, certainly LNG, power generation, and life sciences will continue to fuel process hybrid on a forward basis here, given the visibility we currently have, and we feel very positive about the underlying drivers across all three of those. Chemicals is a mixed story. We actually are doing quite well in specialty chemicals. The bulk chemical story is negatively impacted in Europe and in China, and we just have a demand condition and an overcapacity condition that impacts those end markets, and so those are negative for us. As I look forward into 2026, certainly I expect the momentum to continue as capacity is invested, not just to meet the energy security needs, but also to nationalize and localize manufacturing of drugs, and of course the enormous expansion we have in generation, transmission, and distribution capacity.

Operator

Gotcha.

Operator

Just back to test and measurement. I know Lal, you've been working on sort of the commercialization of growth there. Maybe you can talk about how much of the improvement is the markets as you answered Jeff's question, but maybe just your own self help and where you are in that process of improving the business. Obviously you mentioned LabVIEW and the presentation is outperforming, so maybe you could talk about that as well.

Speaker 8

Yeah, I will and I'll let Ram jump in here as well. Look, so much work has been done, Andy, as you know, by this team led by Ram and Ritu Favre. They've done an exceptional job resetting this company to address and to be a quick, more nimble respondent to market opportunities. Certainly we have seen market recovery, underlying market recovery, which fuels. We believe that we're outperforming the market and that is based on not just the reset of the commercial focus in the company, but also in the new products that we're bringing to market. The example I highlighted with LabVIEW is a new generation, new incremental product in the marketplace. I think that's going to make a big difference across the segments.

Operator

Yeah, you said it, Lal. I think the focus on new products, I think as Lal said, LabVIEW, the software suite, they're launching a new DAC or data acquisition product, which I think is a core capability that NI and NI customers were expecting. I think that's going to be a net positive. Also, on the commercial side, going back to the basics as it relates to country-specific growth plans, they have great exposure in many, many parts of the world. Going back to the basics and developing go-to-market plans and growth initiatives, simple things but hugely important as the market recovers. Where our management system deployed is helping NI grow faster than the market. That's clearly evident in the pace.

Speaker 2

Of business we're seeing.

Speaker 2

Appreciate it, guys.

Speaker 6

The next question is from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 8

Hey.

Speaker 6

Hey.

Speaker 8

Good morning, guys. Good morning. Scott, wanted to talk a little bit about Ovation, if you don't mind. Maybe some of this is just going to be re-educating us on kind of how this, how you guys make money there.

Operator

When you talk about like you.

Speaker 8

Orders up 40%, you know, is.

Operator

this all new projects?

Speaker 8

Is it a mix of retrofit, new projects? How do you guys think about what goes into a new, does a retrofit go into a new order example?

Operator

I have to follow up on that too.

Speaker 8

Yeah, no, certainly there are a couple categories there. There's new project, new construction. I highlighted the Entergy combined cycle plants as an example. Those typically have long lead times. You book, you do the engineering work, construction begins, you start driving the automation in there. Extension of life in plants, we're seeing that in combined cycle and coal and in nuclear in the United States and Asia. Lastly, there are modernizations where, whether it's for cybersecurity purposes, AI purposes or other, plants put in new control systems and upgrade innovation. All three of those, Scott, as you know, are bookings. They all have different implications to the shift ratio given the time it takes to implement and build.

Operator

Yeah, and you said it. I think traditionally the power industry for us has been one of competitive displacement. As you know, greenfield opportunities have really picked up in the recent past. Over the years we've owned this. It was a competitive displacement story. What is certainly a net positive for us is the greenfield capacity, investment, and combined cycle happening in the U.S. to fuel the power needs for the data centers. Certainly, markets like China as well, there's significant level of greenfield activity and we're capitalizing on that with the technology position. We have innovation. All three aspects of the business, greenfield, modernizations, as well as continued MRO and competitive displacement, is fueling the order growth. Growth which will convert to sales over the next couple of years. Okay, and are those installs profitable? I mean, how do you do you.

Speaker 8

Is it more of a loss leader and then you make money over time on the subscription, or do you make.

Operator

Money on the install as well? We make money on the install, we make more money on the aftermarket. It's the standard formula we've described in the past. Obviously, there's a margin delta between when we win the project, greenfield modernization, and then ongoing MRO is a very profitable revenue stream. Okay, helpful.

Speaker 8

Thank you, guys.

Operator

I'll pass it on.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

The next questions are from the line of Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your questions. Hi, good morning.

Speaker 8

Good morning.

Operator

Can you talk through control systems?

Speaker 6

Software a little bit?

Speaker 2

We saw really good organic growth there last quarter. This quarter, more in that kind of low to mid single digit range.

Speaker 8

Just talk about what you.

Speaker 2

Saw within AspenTech and then controls and.

Speaker 6

How you're thinking about that growth into the fourth quarter.

Speaker 2

Hey Joe, I'll start this one. Remember last quarter we talked about the TotalEnergies deal pulling into Q2, which would have been in Q3 in AspenTech's Emerson Q3, their Q4 was traditionally their.

Operator

We had that.

Speaker 8

Movement.

Speaker 2

Underlying AspenTech annual contract value (ACV) growth and continued revenue growth are very strong this year. The systems business continues to do very well in the mid single digits and continues to see all the dynamics that Lal and Ram have talked about.

Operator

Yeah, I think you said it. I think overall from a full year perspective, mid single digit growth plus in the systems and software business. As Mike described, the lumpiness associated with how AspenTech recognizes ASC 606 with TotalEnergies, for example, as well as project lumpiness and how we execute within systems and software will have variations from one quarter to the next. Overall, we feel very, very good about the high end of the 4% to 7% range for underlying growth in our systems and software business.

Speaker 6

Great, that's helpful.

Speaker 2

Just a little bit more.

Speaker 6

Color on the discrete side of the business and kind of contrasting test and measurement with legacy discrete. You did see order acceleration there in test and measurement. It looks like discrete orders may be pacing more flattish. What are you seeing in the different demand trends there and your expectation for kind of legacy discrete recovery.

Speaker 8

I'll start off and Ram can add some color. There are two very important dimensions of the legacy discrete, Joe, that differ from test and measurement. The first is exposure to automotive and packaging businesses, particularly in Western Europe and China. Both of those markets continue to be relatively depressed and challenging, and that certainly dampened the recovery there. Offset, of course, by some of the more traditional broad-based industrials, which have impacted positively, but generally speaking are much more muted, and you're right, slightly positive as they came out of the quarter, significantly more muted than the broad-based applications and market exposures that the test and measurement business has. Yeah.

Operator

I think the outsized market exposure for us in Europe, which has been the slowest market to recover for our traditional discrete businesses or factory automation piece versus test and measurement, points to the disparity in the pace and amplitude of recovery. As Lal described, I think the automotive segment and then factory automation as it relates to Europe and China have more muted recovery than many of the markets in test and measurement.

Speaker 6

Got it.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Oben with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Hi. Good morning. Good morning, Andrew.

Speaker 8

Good morning to everyone. Just a broader question on your power vertical. You sort of enter the power cycle with very material endowment in terms of market share. The Ovation orders are up nicely. Clearly, the AspenTech grid business is doing very well. What do you think is a sustainable growth rate going forward? Can it stay elevated for the next 12 to 24 months given what's happening in the power generation industry broadly?

Speaker 8

Yeah, thanks Andrew. I'll comment in if Ram or Mike have something to add. I certainly believe it can based on the visibility we have of opportunity across both markets, generation and transmission distribution. I think it's sustainable in the high teens kind of range over the next couple of years. As a matter of fact, we'll probably highlight this market when we all get together in New York City in November as a growth factor for the company because the dollar spend that we're seeing, and it's not just a U.S. story obviously, is very meaningful and impactful. As Ram described, it's been a significant shift for this team, which had been, as you noted, it's a high participation rate company to begin with, but essentially grew over the last 20 years by driving competitive displacement.

Speaker 8

Now we've refocused the team really around project pursuit and an extension of market. We see that momentum. We're very close to our customers because of that very large participation in the business, and we are very optimistic about the next 24 months at high rates of growth.

Operator

To add to that, our customer intimacy in this business is very high. Based on, I mean, Bob Yeager, who runs this business, has great relationships with a lot of the major power companies here in the U.S., and certainly I think their plan for continued investment in capacity expansion in combined cycle and certainly the digital grid management space on the T&D side supports an investment cycle that goes well beyond two years. Obviously, you can't call well beyond two years, but certainly for the next two years we feel that the funnel is very, very strong on both sides, both generation as well as transmission and distribution. We expect these type of growth rates to continue.

Operator

Excellent. Thanks so much. Just looking at where we are in the cycle, I think the narrative from a lot of companies back in the spring and early summer was that tariffs are really impacting the ability of companies to sign off on large projects. I think with 65% of U.S. trading.

Speaker 8

Partners.

Speaker 8

Having some form of agreement with the U.S., how has the dialogue with your customers changed? Are you getting more visibility? What does the funnel look like? What's the likelihood of large projects actually being released into the calendar year and in early 2026?

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Yeah, so Andrew, Ram here. We haven't, from our perspective, you know, certainly in LNG, Power, Life Sciences, which is the majority of our project funnel that we continue to drive, we have seen no slowdown in decision making or approvals to move projects forward. I think that's the most important data point now, certainly in terms of some of the sustainability projects in our funnel, and that's not necessarily tariff related. We have seen some project cancellations that have impacted the overall size of our funnel, but not in a meaningful fashion. The most important thing is where we see the growth in LNG, Power, Life Sciences, and certainly even in the U.S. chemical, petrochemical projects and all of the activity in the Middle East, no slowdown, and we continue to yield $350 to $400 million of project wins a quarter from our $11.2 billion funnel.

Operator

That has been consistent with what we've experienced in the last several quarters.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

The next question comes from the line of Nigel Ko with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 8

Good morning. For DVO and for Dev, this is not the chatbot, this is the real person.

Speaker 8

Yeah, Nigel, you know we honored you with that.

Speaker 6

There you go.

Speaker 8

It's great.

Speaker 8

I hope it's got a British accent. Okay, I think that when you've talked about the order push out, I just thought maybe we could just double click into sort of the second half order rates. It looks to be mid singles. I think you were pointing to high single digit order rates in the second half of the year. I'm just wondering if you maybe just double click into where you've seen some of the pushouts. I'm guessing some of the energy transition projects have either cancelled or pushed out. Maybe talk about the North American greenfield, clearly power and some of the other verticals you talked about. I'm wondering are we starting to see some of these reshoring announcements bearing fruit in terms of orders?

Speaker 8

Yeah. First of all, I did not talk about order pushouts, Nigel. That was not one of the elements that we experienced in the quarter. There are dynamics around timing of bookings. Some came earlier in the quarter, some came in July. We didn't see any dimension of pushouts on bookings on capital. As I mentioned in a prior comment, the MRO activity and booking pace on MRO, which is, as you know, 62% of the business, was very steady throughout the quarter. Lal, any comment? Why don't you comment on the Greenfields?

Operator

Yeah, I think the greenfields, which is LNG greenfields, power greenfield, life sciences greenfield, and even activity in chemical and ethylene and methanol, continue to be positive for us in North America. No push outs, no slowdowns there. I think you may have picked up on the point. In terms of our funnel, we've seen some moves in sustainability and decarbonization projects in the funnel, but these are not in the quarter or near term type projects. That was maybe the commentary you picked up. In terms of greenfield activity, we stay very, very positive on the movement of these projects in North America.

Operator

Sorry about that, the chatbot gave me the wrong information there. Moving on to the discrete automation, the discrete and test and measurement businesses outlook. Clearly we're hitting some really deeply favorable comps here. We've got a mathematical uplift on comps. Are we seeing a genuine increase in investment from your customers? That's the first part of my second question, and maybe just touch on this FX pinch to margins. Do you think that's going to be a factor in Q4 as well?

Speaker 2

I'll take the second part of that, Nigel. We are not pointed in for the FX pinch margins in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 8

Yeah.

Operator

In terms of the discrete markets, I mean for us obviously the test and measurement growth rates certainly drove a majority of the discrete recovery. In terms of momentum and certainly many markets within test and measurement, this is an inflection. For example, our largest single market is aerospace and defense and that will see, as for the recent announcement, continued momentum in spending across the globe, certainly in Europe and North America where we have the best presence. That's an inflection. Semiconductors, both RF and mixed signal, which is where we play. There'll be validation investment, R&D investment as well as capacity investment. The broad-based test and measurement recovery is more a sign of markets getting more confident about the pace of investments and our distributors and integrators restocking on NI. I would say many parts of our discrete market have inflection points and sustained recovery.

Operator

The ones we're watching are factory automation investments out of Germany and China where we haven't seen sustained inflection yet.

Speaker 8

That's great. Thank you.

Speaker 6

The next question is from the line of Dean Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 8

Good morning, Dean.

Operator

Hey, when we were at the Emerson Exchange in San Antonio, we saw that demo of Ovation AI-enabled Virtual Advisor. Just remind us, is this still in beta test? Has it been launched? It was interesting, the first application, I guess it's not surprising, is Power gen. What's the plan for the rollout for other applications?

Speaker 8

Yeah, no, I noted that on slide three, Dean, that Ovation AI-enabled Virtual Advisor has been launched and it's integrated with Innovation 4.0. That's now in the marketplace and it's off to a very good-looking start already. I give an example of Entergy, which is building two combined cycle 754 megawatt power plants in Mississippi and Texas, and they're using the technology, so there's a really good customer adoption there already on that product that you saw as a demo.

Speaker 6

Good to hear.

Operator

In your queue this morning there's a reference to the one big beautiful bill talking about the accelerated depreciation that you're saying it would not be a meaningful impact for Emerson. Can you just clarify, is that a reference to your own CapEx? What about customer CapEx? With all this reshoring there could be some benefit there. If you just clarify, you are correct.

Speaker 2

That is a reference to ours.

Operator

You are also correct that it certainly.

Speaker 2

Could be a benefit to our customers as they think about CapEx.

Operator

To expand on that a little bit, the provisions of the One.

Speaker 2

Bill are generally favorable for Emerson, avoiding some downsides that were in the outlook as part of TCJA.

Operator

Changing some rates there.

Speaker 2

That will be helpful, modestly helpful as we move forward.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Our final question is from the line of Nicole Deblosse with Deutsche Bank. Please just go through your question.

Speaker 7

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 8

Good morning.

Speaker 7

Just wanted to ask about the order outlook for 4Q. I think previously it was up high singles. Now we're looking at 5 to 7% growth. Was that driven by a revision in the factory automation outlook? Can you guys just elaborate a bit there?

Speaker 8

No, look, the process hybrid has remained very consistent for us because of outlook. We are still expecting that to exit in the mid single digits as we were prior. Discrete recovery had been very, very encouraging as we went through the quarter. You saw, Nicole, double digit exit right there, still expected. Safety, productivity, there's some comps in there, but lower single digits on that one. It is a mix of the different things, 5% to 7%, but I guess it's mid to mid single high. I don't know how you define it, Nicole, but it still falls in that band of expectation that we had.

Speaker 7

Okay, understood.

Speaker 8

Yeah, that's fair.

Speaker 7

Just follow up on the margin outlook for 4Q. I think you guys said about 27% EBITDA margin. Usually, margins step down a little bit sequentially in the fourth quarter. Is the divergence versus normal seasonality just driven by the moving pieces around tariffs?

Operator

Yeah, I think for us in the fourth quarter, if you're talking versus Q3, the fact that we're holding at that 27% clearly is an indication of tariff-related pricing getting more favorable in the.

Speaker 8

Fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

Operator

We always planned it that way that we would implement the pricing actions in Q3. We have a little bit of a headwind as it relates to them fully offsetting tariffs, but then we'll get totally green as we call it into Q4, and hence Q4 margins very solid, up 80 basis points year over year and sequentially flat to Q3.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

I'll pass it on.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

At this time, this will conclude our question and answer session and also conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

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