Grupo Aeromexico Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 20, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Record third-quarter revenue reached $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year over year, while EBIT margin was 12%. Strong premium revenue, loyalty-program growth, international demand, and load factors helped offset higher fuel costs.
  • Negative Sentiment: Fuel expense increased 58% year over year, with jet fuel averaging nearly $4 per gallon and running about MXN 93 million above prior guidance. Inflation, fleet-growth costs, and foreign-exchange effects also pressured profitability.
  • Positive Sentiment: Aeromexico issued a constructive fourth-quarter outlook, targeting 14%-16% revenue growth, a 19.5%-21.5% adjusted EBITDAR margin, and a 7.5%-9.5% operating margin. Full-year guidance calls for 13.5%-14.5% revenue growth and an 8.5%-9.5% operating margin.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company ended the quarter with $965 million of cash, $1.2 billion of total liquidity, and continued debt reduction while maintaining its investment plan. The lifting of a U.S. Department of Transportation restriction also creates opportunities for additional U.S. routes and frequencies beginning in 2027.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Grupo Aeromexico Q3 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Aeromexico's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a question and answer session at the end with instructions given at that time. For the webcast participants, you may submit questions at any time during the call using the Ask a Question section on the webcast. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Now I would like to hand the conference over to Ms. Lucero Medina, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Medina, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today to discuss our results are Andrés Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aaron Murray, Chief Commercial Officer, and Ricardo Sánchez Baker, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we will present results that are based on our unaudited consolidated financials. Accordingly, the financial results discussed today are based on information available to us as of the date of this call and are not a comprehensive final statement of our financial results for any period presented. We may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act regarding future events and our company's future performance.

Speaker 1

We caution you that several important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from any plans and expectations expressed in this call, including the risk factors disclosed in our SEC filings. During this call, we will present certain non-IFRS financial measures. We have included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS measures in earnings release. Both our call and the earnings release are available on our website. It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Andrés Conesa.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lucero, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. We delivered strong third-quarter results, reflecting once again the resilience and unique strengths of Aeromexico's business model. These results also demonstrate the significant progress we have made in recent years to build a stronger and more flexible company, better positioned to navigate periods of uncertainty, including today's high fuel cost environments. I would like to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their commitment and discipline in executing through a challenging environment. By putting our customer first, while maintaining strong cost control, the team continues to protect the quality of our service and capitalize on attractive revenue opportunities. EBIT margin reached a strong 12%, supported by record quarterly revenue that came in above the midpoint of the June guidance range.

Speaker 2

In a quarter defined by higher-than-expected and volatile fuel prices, delivering a double-digit EBIT margin is a significant achievement. It demonstrates the strength of our business, our ability to capture premium revenues, and the disciplined execution of our teams. Demand remained healthy, supported by a successful peak season that extended through September and delivered outstanding load factors. We also continue to see strong contributions from our premium products and loyalty programs, which enhance our offering and reinforce customer preference for Aeromexico. Premium revenue represented 42% of total revenue, up one percentage point year over year, while loyalty penetration reached 40%, an eight-point increase versus last year. Total revenue grew 14% year over year, driven by premium and other revenue streams, including cargo and loyalty. Together, these factors, along with focused revenue management initiatives, supported our performance during the quarter.

Speaker 2

Capacity increased by around 1% year over year in the third Q, and as the temporary negative impact of the World Cup in June and July normalized, we saw a clear improvement in load factors. August reached 90%, and September recorded 87%, which is a very strong level for a shoulder season month following the summer peak. More importantly, forward bookings remain strong, supporting a constructive outlook for the remainder of the year. This gives us confidence that underlying demand trends remain solid and that our capacity is well aligned with market conditions. Revenue growth more than offset the year-over-year increase in fuel costs, despite jet fuel prices being generally above our guidance. Fuel costs increased by approximately MXN 170 million year over year in the third Q, including nearly MXN 93 million above the guidance we shared with you in early July.

Speaker 2

However, revenue growth was not enough to offset the combined increase in fuel and non-fuel costs. In addition to the higher-than-expected fuel expense, we experienced an anticipated increase in non-fuel costs derived from inflationary pressures and unexpected cost pressures resulting from the appreciation of the Mexican peso. Even so, our teams responded through revenue initiatives, fuel recapture actions, and disciplined capacity deployment, enabling us to deliver a very strong level of profitability in the quarter. This third Q also showed early signs of a better cost ex-fuel trajectory. Some pressures, including FX, started to normalize, and our teams continued to manage the cost base with discipline. Looking ahead, as operating leverage builds, CASM, excluding fuel, is expected to continue to improve.

Speaker 2

This is important because it demonstrates that beyond the temporary impact of fuel, we believe that the underlying business is moving decisively in the right direction, with improving cost momentum and a stronger foundation for sustainable profitability. As a result of this structural resilience, we ended the quarter with a cash position above the level reported in the third quarter of 2025. Financial debt, including leases, continued on a downward trajectory, while we maintain our investment program without raising additional debt. Our focus remains on investing for the future while protecting liquidity and preserving the financial strength of the business. Our network will continue to grow through the recently announced routes launching in 2027, including Mexico City to Milan, Guadalajara to Paris, Nassau, and Montego Bay.

Speaker 2

This expansion reflects our confidence in the long-term demand outlook and our disciplined approach to growth, adding capacity selectively in markets where we see attractive opportunities to generate profitable returns. The U.S. Department of Transportation decision to immediately revoke its prior order disapproving certain scheduled Mexican carriers marks a very positive development for Aeromexico. It removes an important restriction on our ability to add frequencies and launch new scheduled services between Mexico City and the United States, subject to applicable regulatory requirements. This gives us greater flexibility to capture attractive growth opportunities, strengthen our transborder network, and offer our customers more connectivity between Mexico and the United States. Taking care of our customers also means delivering a reliable operation every day in every market we serve. This is something our teams have been focused on, and the results are clear.

Speaker 2

Cirium once again recognized Aeromexico as the most on-time airline in the world during the third quarter. Together with our performance in the first and second quarters, this positions us very strongly to receive this recognition for the third consecutive year, a feat that no other airline has achieved in history. Building on our strong third quarter results and solid outlook, we plan to remain focused on operating reliably, protecting revenue performance, managing costs with discipline, and further strengthening our balance sheet. Ricardo will provide more detail on our full Q and full year outlook shortly. Before that, I want to highlight the positive opportunities ahead with resilient demand and a favorable fare environment supporting continued revenue momentum. We also see meaningful operating leverage embedded in our existing fleet.

Speaker 2

At the same time, we anticipate continuing to invest selectively in customer experience and in the network that makes Aeromexico the preferred choice for travelers. We are confident that this combination of strong execution, disciplined growth, and a resilient business model will continue to differentiate Aeromexico and create long-term value for our customers, employees, and shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to Aaron to discuss our commercial performance in more detail. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Andrés, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank the entire Aeromexico team for their hard work and dedication and our customers for their continued loyalty. As Andrés mentioned, we delivered the strongest quarterly revenue performance in Aeromexico's history, with total revenue of $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year over year. This performance reflects strong demand across the network and the benefits of the commercial initiatives we are executing. International revenue showed strength across all entities, increasing 17.4% year over year, led by long-haul markets in the U.S. region. Growth in the U.S. region was especially notable given the high comparison base, as last year's third quarter marked the inflection point in U.S. demand recovery. Regarding domestic, performance strengthened throughout the quarter as we distanced ourselves from the World Cup, resulting in domestic revenue growing 6.7% year over year.

Speaker 3

Turning to commercial initiatives, Aeroméxico Rewards continues to be an important driver of customer engagement and revenue quality. As Andrés mentioned, program participation reached a new record in the third quarter of 40%, up 8 points year-over-year and 19 points since the program's reacquisition and rebranding in 2023. Redemption revenue grew 27% year-over-year, 2 times more than total revenue growth for the quarter, as investments in the program continue to bring value to customers. Regarding modern airline retailing, our redesigned branded fare structure is driving significant incremental revenue by better aligning our product offering with different customer needs and willingness to pay. This enables us to more effectively position our premium offering while expanding our ability to compete for more price-sensitive demand.

Speaker 3

These capabilities continue to support growth in our direct online channel, where in the third quarter, direct online share remained at an all-time high of 48%, up 2 points year-over-year and 23 points versus 2019. These initiatives are giving us greater control over how we present, differentiate, and monetize our products, enabling more disciplined execution of our premium strategy while giving us the flexibility to compete across a broader range of customer segments. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Ricardo will provide details of our guidance, but we continue to see strong demand trends across all geographies. In September, our fall sales campaign generated 45% more revenue than the previous year. In response to rising fuel costs, Aeroméxico remains focused on fuel recapture initiatives and maintaining flexibility in capacity management.

Speaker 3

Regarding capacity, fourth quarter growth will be driven primarily by wide-bodies, as Aeroméxico continues expanding its long-haul network in Europe and Asia, enabled by recent 787 deliveries. This wide-body growth reflects a continued stretching of demand in traditionally weaker periods, particularly in European markets, and includes the extension of Monterrey-Paris to year-round and the annualization of our recently launched Mexico City-Barcelona service. In addition, in the fourth quarter, we plan to grow domestic capacity between 3% and 4%, enabled by the increase in Mexico City slots from 44 to 46 per hour. We expect this growth to enhance our leading domestic position at our hub. In closing, we believe Aeroméxico is well-positioned to deliver a strong finish to the year, supported by continued revenue momentum, growing customer engagement, and a disciplined approach to growth. I'll now turn the call over to Ricardo.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. First, I would like to join Andrés and Aaron in thanking the entire Aeroméxico team for its outstanding efforts and execution during the quarter. Our results reflect the team's ability to remain focused, responsive, and disciplined while navigating significant fuel price volatility, foreign exchange movements, and a more demanding than expected cost environment. Our results also demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business model and the durable structural advantages we have built over time. In the third quarter, total capacity, measured in ASMs, increased 1% year-over-year, generally in line with our guidance. We managed capacity carefully by prioritizing profitability. International ASMs grew 3%, while domestic ASMs declined 3%, aligning supply with demand. As Aaron mentioned, revenue reached $1.6 billion, up 14% year-over-year, and a record for any quarter. TRASM increased 12%, driven primarily by passenger revenue and cargo and other commercial initiatives.

Speaker 4

Total revenue increased by MXN 194 million, more than offsetting the MXN 171 million year-over-year increase in fuel prices. This strong revenue performance was driven by resilient demand, strength in international markets, targeted revenue management initiatives, and continued growth in our premium products and loyalty program. The result was particularly significant given that fuel costs were approximately MXN 93 million above the level contemplated in the guidance provided last quarter. During the third quarter of 2026, Aeroméxico updated its loyalty program breakage, the first such alignment since 2018. Together, this reflects current member activity and long-term program trends. This update resulted in the recognition of MXN 49 million in revenue for the period, together with an adjustment to our deferred liability. More importantly, this updated breakout establishes the baseline that we expect will drive sustained growth in our annual loyalty revenue moving forward.

Speaker 4

While revenue growth fully offset the year-over-year increase in fuel prices, the combined impact of higher fuel costs, anticipated increases in other operating costs, and the impact of the stronger Mexican peso continued to pressure profitability. Despite these broader cost pressures, our disciplined execution and strong revenue performance supported an EBIT margin that remains among the strongest in the industry. Total operating expenses increased 22% year-over-year, primarily due to a 58% increase in fuel expense, as fuel prices averaged nearly $4 per gallon, compared with $2.50 in the third quarter of 2025. Our efficient fleet helped mitigate this impact, with fuel consumption down 2% and fuel burned per ASM improving 3%. Excluding fuel, operating expenses increased 10%, primarily reflecting the stronger Mexican peso, inflationary pressures, and costs associated with fleet growth.

Speaker 4

Cash from ops increased 7% year-over-year, a clear improvement over the approximately 15% increase recorded during the first half of the year. This progress reflects continued cost discipline, operating efficiency, and a more stable foreign exchange environment. As we continue to capture operating leverage opportunities by generating more ASMs with our existing assets, we expect our cash from ops to trend more favorably. Adjusted EBITDAR amounted to MXN 389 million, representing a strong 24% margin, while operating income reached MXN 190 million, resulting in a robust 12% operating margin. The strength of our financial results underscore the structural durability of our business model and our ability to preserve healthy profitability despite a challenging cost environment. In our view, however, the most important financial result of the first nine months of the year has been our strong cash flow generation.

Speaker 4

Aeroméxico generated MXN 542 million in net cash from operating activity through September 30, 2026, enabling us to fund our planned investments while continuing to reduce financial debt. During the third quarter, we repaid an additional $7 million of debt, further strengthening our balance sheet, despite elevated fuel prices and other cost pressures. We ended the period with $965 million in cash and cash equivalents, up $31 million year-over-year. We also renewed and upsized our revolving credit facility from $200 million to $250 million, bringing total liquidity to $1.2 billion, equivalent to 21% of last 12 months revenue. This liquidity position provides a strong foundation to continue investing in the business while preserving financial flexibility. Looking ahead, our updated guidance reflects our latest assumptions for fuel prices, foreign exchange, and inflation-related expenses. For the fourth quarter, we expect capacity to increase between 7% and 8% year-over-year.

Speaker 4

The operating leverage that began to emerge in the third quarter should become more visible in the fourth quarter and continue to build in the years ahead. We expect fourth quarter revenue growth of approximately 14%-16%. This outlook reflects robust demand, the strength of our network, and disciplined commercial execution. With a strong demand, a stronger revenue base, and higher utilization of our existing fleet, we expect to generate more revenue and use our existing fleet more efficiently, supporting stronger margins over time. More importantly, we expect to achieve this without adding incremental fleet or taking on additional debt to fund growth. We anticipate fourth quarter customer fuel to remain broadly flat year-over-year. For the fourth quarter, we expect an Adjusted EBITDAR margin between 19.5% and 21.5%, and an operating margin between 7.5% and 9.5%.

Speaker 4

Taken together, this will take us to a full year 2026 capacity growth of approximately 2%-3%, and year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 13.5%-14.5%. We expect full-year Adjusted EBITDAR margin between 21.5% and 22.5%, and full-year operating margin between 8.5% and 9.5%. Our guidance assumes an average all-in fuel price of approximately $4.5 per gallon for the fourth quarter, and an exchange rate of approximately 18 pesos per dollar. We cannot predict when fuel prices will moderate, but we believe they will eventually do so. When that happens, our ability to capture premium revenue, together with our operating leverage embedded in the existing platform that we have, should be able to unlock additional profitability opportunities. In the meantime, we remain focused on strengthening Aeromexico in a challenging environment.

Speaker 4

Our structural advantages and strong cash flow generation should continue to reinforce our competitive position, and we believe that the gap between Aeromexico and its competitors should continue to widen in the following months. With that, we will open now the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. To ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. We ask that you please limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question is going to come from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore. Your line is open. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Thank you. Can you just remind us, just play back for us the impacts from changes in FX? Our understanding is a modestly softer peso will lower or help your unit cost, slightly lower your unit revenue, but be net neutral or maybe even a slight tailwind to margins. Can you just remind us, if we're now, say, modeling 18 or 18.5 instead of 17, how that impacts your revenue costs and margins?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Duane. Let me make some comments, and then, maybe Ricardo can be deeper. As you know, we have a natural hedge on the currency. Basically, this movement will not affect the P&L. However, they have an impact on demand, like a second-order impact, where a stronger peso means stronger demand for Mexicans flying abroad and the other way around. With the peso at these levels, around between 18 and 19, we feel that the demand to travel for Mexicans abroad continues to be solid. We are in a very good spot. Obviously, when the peso touched below 17 pesos per dollar, it was even stronger during the summer. But again, we see at these levels of the currency, very strong demand for Mexicans traveling abroad.

Speaker 2

A weaker peso that we are expecting versus the July guidance means lower costs in dollars and lower revenues in dollars. Even though we kept the total revenue projections in the guidance flat versus what we were expecting in July, we see there is an impact of this weaker peso, which is equivalent to around 2 percentage points. That's really, really important. If you consider that, the expected growth in revenues for the Q4 is between 16% and 18% versus the Q4 of 2025. It's very, very solid, and we continue to take additional steps to strengthen revenue. Aaron will discuss that in more detail. But again, the new level of jet fuel that we are seeing, for example, it's relatively new. The past three weeks or so, with jet fuel approaching $5 per gallon, it's a new norm.

Speaker 2

We are, as Ricardo explained for the quarter, expecting a way higher jet fuel price, which means around $170 million.

Speaker 2

of pressure, and we are acting. Hopefully, with these actions, plus while adjusting for this peso effect, we can even get closer to a growth rate of around 20% in terms of revenues for the quarter. Again, too soon to say today, but we are working on that direction. Ricardo?

Speaker 4

Just to complement Andrés. Andrés talked about the revenue side. Looking at the cost side, if you look at the anticipated or estimated CASM ex-fuel for the 4Q versus the previous guidance, what we see is that CASM ex-fuel can be better in around 2%-3%, given also these FX impact. Yes, we have some impact on the revenue side that Andrés already described, and on the cost side, we see some positive impact on CASM ex-fuel.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Go ahead. Sorry.

Speaker 3

Just to follow up on fuel recapture initiatives. Obviously, it has been a difficult year in terms of needing to recapture cost of fuel. We have had a lot of success, though. Even in recent weeks, continuing with the rise in fuel to find reasonable success in passing those costs on. Our revenue guidance is in no way an indication that we feel like we have hit the end of that. In fact, with all these initiatives that have been deployed this year, we have not seen any signs that there is any cracks in demand or that maybe we have gone as far as we can. I think implicit in our guidance is not too much more recapture for the quarter, but we do feel like, as we deploy those initiatives, that could be upside.

Speaker 5

Thank you for that detailed response. Just for my follow-up, can you speak to competitive capacity trends that you are seeing here into the fourth quarter? It does look like the capacity picture gets a bit tighter sequentially from 3Q to 4Q domestically in Mexico. I wonder if you could speak to that as well. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 2

Well, what we are seeing, if you look at the capacity projections for the other two carriers in Mexico, they are down. They have been revised down, particularly for one of them, which is even projecting high single digit contraction for the first Q. We are not anticipating pressures on the capacity side on the domestic market. There is an increase in the slots in Mexico City that Aaron mentioned, from 44 to 46. We are covering our fair share of that, and we expect other airlines to follow. We have not seen too much activity, but it is rational to anticipate that those will be covered. That is what partially explains our growth for the 4Q. What I want to stress, as Aaron mentioned, that this growth of between 7% and 8%, 70% of that is driven by wide-body flying. Right?

Speaker 2

Again, those flights that we started after the 4Q of 2025, that are year-on-year, and they are plus some additional narrow body flying, particularly in the domestic market, as we catch up versus the previous actions before. It is sustainable growth, it is disciplined growth, and it does not consider any additional flying to the U.S. because the DOT order was lifted just at the end of last week. We are analyzing our options, and soon you will hear positive news on network expansion to the U.S., but it will not happen this year. If anything, it will be at the start of 2027.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Duane, a few more details on that. First of all, our 7%-7% to 8% capacity growth, as Andrés mentioned, super efficient growth, almost all driven by stage and gauge versus departure growth. That is, I think, important context. When you look at, just to give you some specifics on OA capacity growth for the fourth quarter, some modest growth domestically, low single digits, 3 points of growth. A little bit more on international, 4 points, but much below our growth in the quarter. I look at the OA industry capacity growth in the fourth quarter to be favorable.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And one moment for our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Oh, hey. Good morning. This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Thanks for taking my question. We saw the headline come through about Volaris and Viva's expected merger approval by the end of this year. We're anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts on what they could be and if Aeromexico would benefit from potential remedies?

Speaker 2

Shannon, I'm sorry. We didn't hear that very well. Could you please repeat?

Speaker 6

Oh, yeah. Just on Volaris and Viva's expected merger approval by the end of this year. We are anticipating to see some remedies. Do you have any thoughts there, and would Aeromexico potentially benefit from remedies?

Speaker 2

Thank you for the question. We are waiting for the decision of the authorities. As we mentioned before, our job is to continue strengthening our business. We continue to invest in our airline to continue differentiating ourselves, our model from the two ULCCs. That is our job. I think, again, as we mentioned during our remarks, we have a very positive trend. We are very happy where the business is going. We have been always in contact with the authorities, sharing our views. We cannot comment if it is going to be approved or not. Certainly, in the past, in many occasions, in other parts of the world, when this type of merger is approved, they usually come with remedies. Which remedy, if it is approved, we do not know yet. As soon as we know, obviously we will show and explain our position.

Speaker 2

Again, I think we are in a good spot with where we are today and going forward.

Speaker 6

Thanks. If I may follow up, with the increase in slots from 44 to 46 per hour, do you think that this number increases further? I know that pre-pandemic, the airport was running in the low 60s, so I am just wondering if there are any conversations about raising the slot limit further, given the DOT's revocation, which would support further service to the U.S. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 2

Yes. Again, this increase was 44 to 46. Yesterday, our Secretary of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport, we are in the ALTA forum this week in Mexico City. He participated, and he was asked that question, and he did mention that going forward, by the end of this decade, we can expect to see a larger number of operations in Mexico going to high 40s. This is in line with what we are projecting.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is going to come from Guilherme Mendes with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes, good morning, all. Hi, Andrés, Ricardo, Aaron, and Lucero, thanks for taking my question. I have a follow-up on the fuel recapture and demand trends. I guess the initial remarks on the strong demand environment was very clear, but just wanted to better understand the breakdown between leisure, corporate, domestic, and international. Which segments are you seeing under performance, and which segments are you seeing under performance? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I can take that. In terms of performance and where we're seeing strength, as we look out into the fourth quarter, we're super optimistic on the wide-body fleet, Europe and Asia in particular, because that's where all our growth is coming. With the capacity expansion, we're going to daily in Incheon later in the winter IATA period, and then we're up 25% or so in Europe in the fourth quarter. Given that capacity growth, we're really happy with the increases in fares and traction we're seeing. Demand, we're booked ahead in terms of load factor, and really across the board in all geographies. We sit here for the quarter up about 2 to 3 points in both load factor with that kind of capacity increase. I'd say strength generally across the board, more international than we are domestic.

Speaker 3

I think that follows in addition to just performance overall, where we're seeing fuel recapture. Maybe highlighting another entity would be the U.S. You may recall fourth quarter U.S. was quite strong in the comp. Even on top of that, we're seeing strong fuel recapture that's been sticky and demand that really hasn't slowed down. Again, why I echo Andrés' excitement about the DOT rescinding the order and us being able to grow into the U.S. in the future. So those would be the geographies where we're seeing strength. No real weaknesses. Domestic market's a little different, and the competitive set's a little different. So your process for getting fuel recapture isn't the same. But generally speaking, across the board, we're pretty optimistic within all geographies.

Speaker 2

Guilherme, I'll just complement what Aaron mentioned. Guilherme, if you look at the Q3 numbers, revenue growth offset the fuel pressure. So we were able to recapture more than 100% of the fuel pressure. Again, not enough to consider the growth in other costs associated to inflation in Mexico, like labor costs, but it was a very strong performance. For the full team and the guidance that we gave, fuel recapture stands today at low 90s, 92, 93, with initiatives that we described that are not included that may result in better revenue numbers. We feel confident that we can get close to 100% offset of the fuel. I don't think many airlines in the industry can have this type of results.

Speaker 7

Very clear. Thank you, guys. If I may follow up on breaking down between corporate and leisure. Corporate continues to be relatively stronger?

Speaker 3

Yeah, we're seeing strength across both those segments. We just did a corporate survey, little pulse survey, and the vast majority of corporates are looking at fourth quarter demand at stable or slightly up. Where we did see some corporate impact was during the World Cup. There was definitely, and this was not surprising, but as hotel and fare prices were high during the Cup, in addition to just people's excitement around the Cup, we did see corporate not grow at the same pace as the leisure business. That's really as we've transitioned and distanced ourselves from the Cup, both corporate and your high-end leisure are behaving at a similar clip year-over-year. Both real strong demand.

Speaker 7

That's clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is going to come from the line of Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hello. Thank you. My first question is on the fourth quarter guide, specifically, how it changed versus your previous four-quarter guide. If we look at it, obviously the biggest variable that changed is obviously the fuel price assumption. But at the end of the day, your revenue guidance slightly declined despite the higher fuel. Some of it might be due to FX. I was wondering, haven't you raised fares, versus what you were expecting within your previous guidance to offset that higher fuel assumption? Also trying to understand how this will impact the next year. Andrés, you already mentioned some metrics on fuel recapture, but assuming that fuel remains at this elevated level, I don't know, at $4.3, $4.5, whatever. Should we expect more pronounced fare increases in revenue growth in the first quarter of next year?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jens, for your question. When we did the guidance in July and we stressed that, we were expecting despite OPEC+ announcement, jet fuel went down. We were expecting fares to stick well at least till the end of the year, and that was reflected in the guidance. Obviously, the ceasefire didn't stick. Jet fuel prices went up. This new spike, we are paying, as you know, historically high jet fuel prices. We've never paid this jet fuel in history, all the airlines. Even though crude oil is at $110, and it touched $180 back 15 years ago. But jet fuel, only for a couple of days when the conflict in Ukraine started, it was at these levels. What we are seeing today sustained is the first time in history. We are adjusting. We have many initiatives in place every day, we take them.

Speaker 2

This is, again, new the last 3 weeks. It's not reflected, these initiatives on the guidance. Hopefully, they will speak. We see very strong demand. Today, we are not in a position to review the guidance because, again, they are very new. We need to wait a little bit more time. But we are working on it. Again, let me stress once again that the strong dollar versus the peso reflected in 2% lower growth in revenue for the fourth Q. So if you adjust for that, if you go back to the July exchange rate, growth, for the fourth Q would be between 16% and 18% versus the fourth Q of 2025.

Speaker 2

Adjusting for the peso, and again, with these initiatives that we're taking, we could be close to the 20% year-on-year growth for the fourth Q, which would be outstanding and would put us again in a pole position in the industry. That's where we want to be, and we're working on that direction.

Speaker 3

I would just add to Andrés' comments, and as I mentioned before, I wouldn't dismiss the headwind that FX has on revenue. But implicit, I think, in our guidance, again, in the expectations is not that we're going to have significant movements on the fare recapture side. So it's conservative from that regard. With that being said, we are seeing no signs of demand cracking. We're going to go back like we do every week and look for opportunities to pass the cost of fuel on to consumers. We're pretty optimistic that at this point through the year, we've had to not have any signs of weakness in demand. I think that bodes well for us to continue to push on fuel recapture.

Speaker 2

The additional fuel impact versus the July guidance, Jen, it's $170 million. It's around 11% of margin points. If you adjust for that, the guidance that we gave, EBIT margins are close to 20%. Again, we've already priced fuel prices, which are the ones that we were expecting in July, not the same level that we were seeing in 2025. That's where you can sense how strong structurally the company is.

Speaker 8

All right, perfect. One additional question, on the DOT ruling and the lifting of the restriction in Mexico City. You already mentioned that you plan to deploy additional capacity to the U.S. mainly next year. Given the current FAA review and the potential downgrade to Category 2, isn't there a window of opportunity to anticipate those capacity deployments just to raise your capacity ahead of any potential downgrade?

Speaker 2

Yeah. On the FAA review, as you know, the Mexican government provided a statement last week where they stressed that the audits went well. Obviously, there are, as in any audit, some observations. Much lower number of observations versus the last FAA audit that was done a few days ago. We are very close to the authorities. We heard that they will be able to remedy those observations. Again, in the ALTA forum that was held yesterday, our Secretary of Transportation, she stressed, because one of the concerns that the FAA have was the budget for the Civil Aviation Authority in Mexico. He mentioned that the budget considered for 2026 an increase of close to 60% in the resources to the AFAC, which is the Civil Aviation Authority. The FAA administrator was there, and they got together. They mentioned they had productive meetings yesterday.

Speaker 2

She was in the ALTA forum as well. With this 60%, that will strengthen the capacity of the Civil Aviation Authority to regulate the industry. They plan to hire, she mentioned, around 500 more people with 100 in 2026. Things are looking fine on that front. Again, it doesn't depend on us. It's an issue between the two governments. But we have that in mind. Things look well, and no repercussions to expand the network to the U.S. Obviously, we consider that risk. Aaron?

Speaker 3

I will just add, too. There was the window that he discussed in the back and forth. There was, I guess, a follow-up happening in February. We are definitely, as we think about deploying capacity and expanding to new markets in the U.S., we have that window in mind.

Speaker 8

Perfect. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is going to come from the line of Ernst Anton Mortenkotter Terrazas with GBM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just a quick one. I was wondering if anything related with the recent events in Europe and specifically in France have caused any maybe change in the demand for some regions or affect in some of your long-haul travel? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I'm sorry, guys, we didn't hear you very well. Could you please repeat? Maybe get a little away from the phone.

Speaker 9

Hi. Yes. I was asking if anything related to the events that recently happened in France and Europe has maybe impacted negatively any of the demand that you're seeing in your long haul. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yeah. We haven't seen any impact due to that. Obviously watching closely as those events unfold, but so far no impact.

Speaker 2

Yeah. We started, Ernst, as you know, the new flight between Monterrey and Paris, and the performance has been very solid since the start. We are keeping it going forward, and we are launching, as I mentioned before, Guadalajara-Paris. Like Madrid, where we expanded from Guadalajara to Monterrey, Paris is our next point in Europe where we will deploy that strategy, and it's looking fine. These riots have not affected those factors.

Speaker 9

Super. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Hi, this is Ricardo. We have a couple of questions from the webcast that we would like to respond. The first question is related to the implications of our guidance for the fourth quarter in terms of our cash flow performance. As we described in our remarks, we are convinced that one of the major successes that we have had financially this year has been our ability to maintain a strong cash flow generation. In the first nine months of the year, we have been able to generate a strong cash flow of net cash flow from operating activities of around $540 million, which is only around $25 million below the net cash from operating activities that we generated in the first nine months of last year. This has been really a remarkable achievement, and we expect that this trend will continue for the fourth quarter.

Speaker 4

Overall, for the full year, what we expect is that the cash flow generation will be strong. We will be able to continue implementing our CapEx plan. It is very important to highlight that we are not delaying our CapEx plan. We continue to implement it. We will continue to bring down financial debt, and then what we expect is that our cash balances will remain stable. This will give us a lot of flexibility going forward to do any other initiative once conditions improve. For the second question that we have in the webcast is related to our CASM ex-fuel trend and what are our expectations on this. Also, as we described in our remarks, the CASM ex-fuel trends have been positive, and we expect them to continue to be positive.

Speaker 4

In the first half of the year, CASM ex-fuel grew around 15%, parts of it reflecting a negative impact from the strong peso. In the third quarter, we reported an increase in CASM ex-fuel of around 7%. When you look at the implicit guidance that we provided, CASM here in the fourth quarter is expected actually to contract versus last year. This is partially reflecting a more stable foreign exchange, but it's reflecting the operating leverage that we have also highlighted in previous calls. The fact that we already have this capacity, the aircraft in our fleet, and that now we will be using these assets more intensively, more efficiently, producing revenue. As we are able to do that, we should have an improvement in our margins.

Speaker 4

Producing revenue with assets on the one side, and on the other side, producing with the capacity that we currently have and reducing our CapEx field. We expect this trend to continue to improve in the following quarters. Thank you again for your time, for being able to join the call. We again, we continue to work to strengthen revenue, to contain costs, to continue providing these outstanding levels of profitability, which bolster any relevant issue that we face. Again, we look forward for a very solid fourth Q and end of this challenging year. Thank you very much again, and any follow-up questions, please let us know. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

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