Lundin Gold Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
May 7, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q1 delivered strong operations with ~120,000 ounces produced (115,000 sold), a record mill throughput of 5,520 tpd and the company reaffirmed 2026 production guidance of 475,000–525,000 oz.
  • Positive Sentiment: Financial results were robust — $370M operating cash flow and $349M free cash flow in Q1, ending the quarter with ~$704M cash after paying ~$278M in dividends and declaring a $1.21/share dividend representing 100% of normalized FCF; a $50.5M silver‑stream‑for‑equity (LunR) will be distributed to shareholders as a dividend‑in‑kind.
  • Positive Sentiment: Exploration and conversion drilling returned exceptional high‑grade results at FDNS (e.g., 7.5m @ 668 g/t, 8.25m @ 523 g/t), plus significant expansions at FDN East and FDN, with FDNS reserves published and initial underground development underway.
  • Negative Sentiment: Near‑term operational headwinds include one lost time injury and three medical incidents, geotechnical issues that forced mine resequencing (contributing to a Q2 production step‑down), ~10 days of planned mill maintenance and Q1 recoveries (~89%) below the 91% guidance.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Growth initiatives — a mine‑to‑mill expansion study (potential to exceed 5,500 tpd) is on track for year‑end completion with an integrated investment decision targeted late 2026, while porphyry work shows promise but timing for an initial resource remains undetermined.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Lundin Gold Q1 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Speaker 7

Morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Lundin Gold's Q1 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all lines in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star 0 for the operator. This call is being recorded on Thursday, May 7th, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jamie Beck, CEO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. I'm joined by Terry Smith, our Chief Operating Officer, and Chester See, our Chief Financial Officer. We're gonna take you through our results for the first quarter of 2026. Please note Lundin Gold's disclaimers on this slide. The discussion includes forward-looking information. Actual future results may differ from expected results for a variety of reasons described in the Caution regarding Forward-looking Information and Statements section of our press release. Lundin Gold is a U.S. dollar reporting entity, and all amounts in this presentation refer to U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated. Q1 was a strong start to the year. At Fruta del Norte, we delivered solid operating performance, generated significant free cash flow, and continued to advance growth and expansion initiatives across the district.

Speaker 4

Importantly, this quarter reflects the front end of a back-end-weighted year, both operationally and in terms of grades, and we remain on track to deliver within our previous issued 2026 guidance. In the first quarter, we produced approximately 120,000 ounces of gold, selling just over 115,000 ounces. The mill processed nearly 497,000 tons at a record average throughput of 5,520 tons per day, reflecting continued optimization and strong plant performance. Costs were in line with expectations and our margins remained robust. We generated $370 million in operating cash flow, $349 million in free cash flow, and that increased our cash balance to over $700 million. This is after paying quarterly dividends of $278 million.

Speaker 4

We've also declared a Q1 dividend of $1.21 per share, totaling approximately $293 million. Note that this reflects 100% of normalized free cash flow for the quarter, which is above the fixed component of our dividend policy. In addition to the cash dividend, we announced a silver stream for equity transaction with LunR Royalties, which we expect to be distributed to shareholders as a dividend in kind following closing. Chester will speak to this in more detail later in the presentation. Beyond operations and cash flow, we continue to advance our growth pipeline, including ongoing work for our mine-to-mill expansion study, evaluating opportunities to increase throughput beyond 5,500 tons per day while incorporating FDNS into the mine plan.

Speaker 4

In addition, we made meaningful exploration and conversion drilling progress, particularly at FDNS, FDN East, and FDN, where several standout drill results further reinforced the scale and quality of the district. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Terry to discuss our operations in more detail.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to operational and financial results, I want to start where we always start, with our people. Nothing matters more than every employee and contractor at Fruta del Norte going home safe at the end of every shift. During the quarter, we recorded 1 lost time injury, our first in approximately 15 months, along with 3 medical treatment incidents. We take each of these seriously and the lessons from each event are being shared and acted on across the operation. Our focus continues to be in the field, leadership visibility, hazard identification, and reinforcing the right and responsibility of every worker to stop a job that doesn't feel safe. Safety is and will remain our first priority. Turning to operations, the quarter reflected steady performance underground and continued momentum at the mill.

Speaker 8

We mined steadily and processed just under 500,000 tons at an average head grade of 8.4 grams per ton with recoveries of just over 89%. The plant delivered a new quarterly record of 5,520 tons per day, building on the throughput gains we've achieved over the past several quarters. As Jamie mentioned, 2026 production will be back-end weighted. Output is expected to step down in the second quarter as we complete planned plant maintenance before recovering in the second half as higher grade stopes come into the sequence. Based on Q1 results and our current forecast, we are reaffirming full year guidance of 475,000-525,000 ounces. The FDNS mine-to-mill study remains on track for completion by year-end.

Speaker 8

In parallel, we are prepared for underground development to start towards the FDNS deposit. We are also encouraged by the exploration results we released earlier this week, which included the highest grade intercepts ever recorded at FDNS and continue to reinforce our confidence in the deposit. Now over to Chester to speak to the financials.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Terry, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

The first quarter delivered strong financial results reflecting solid operational performance and higher realized gold prices. Net revenues were $567 million, income from mining operations totaled $421 million, and net income was $273 million, or $1.13 per share. We generated EBITDA for the quarter of $424 million. Higher gold prices drove strong margins despite increased royalties and statutory profit sharing. Cash operating costs averaged $987 per ounce, and AISC averaged $1,114 per ounce, giving us a strong AISC margin of approximately 78% in Q1. Free cash flow in Q1 totaled $349 million, or $1.44 per share, which is more than double the first quarter last year, driven primarily by strong operating cash flow with modest capital spending.

Speaker 1

This level of free cash flow continues to support our increased capital returns and organic growth while maintaining a strong balance sheet. From a balance sheet perspective, at March 31, 2026, we had working capital of $572 million, which is largely consistent with year-end 2025. During the quarter, we generated $370 million in cash from operating activities and ended with $704 million in cash after paying $278 million in dividends. Consistent with our capital allocation framework, the board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.21 per share, consisting of $0.30 fixed dividend and a $0.91 variable dividend, representing 100% of normalized free cash flow, which is consistent with the payout levels we have made over the last several quarters and above our policy minimum of 50%.

Speaker 1

The dividend will be paid on June 25th to shareholders on record on June 10th. For more details, please refer to the May 6th dividend announcement. During the quarter, we also announced a silver stream for equity transaction with LunR Royalties. This transaction monetizes a non-core silver by-product at Fruta del Norte while preserving full gold exposure. On closing, Lundin Gold will receive $50.5 million LunR shares, all of which will be distributed to shareholders as a dividend in kind. The stream is effective March 1st, with closing expected before the end of Q2. With that, I'll turn the call back to Jamie.

Speaker 7

Excuse me, Jamie's line was disconnected.

Operator

Okay, this is Brendan Creaney, VP Corporate Development and Investor Relations. I'll speak on Jamie's behalf.

Speaker 7

Excuse me, Jamie is now back.

Operator

Okay, great. Jamie, you're with us?

Speaker 4

I am. Yeah, just let me know where you are. I got disconnected.

Operator

We just got back to the transition to yourself on slide 15, talking to exploration.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you very much, Brendan. Starting with FDNS, where Q1 delivered some of the strongest results ever recorded on the Fruta del Norte property. Recent conversion intercepts included the second and fourth highest grade thickness intercepts ever drilled across the entire FDN district. Just remarkable. Highlights include 7.5 meters of 668 grams per tonne gold, as well as 8.25 meters of 523 grams per tonne gold. These results further confirm the exceptional grade continuity within the FDNS deposit and continue to support our confidence in future reserve growth as development here advances. On the exploration side, drilling outside of the current mineral resource envelope confirmed mineralization continuity along the down-dip extension, highlighting additional growth potential beyond the defined resource.

Speaker 4

A key exploration intercept for the quarter was 5 meters at 23 grams per ton gold. Overall, FDNS continues to demonstrate both near-term conversion upside and longer-term expansion potential. Turning to FDN East, exploration drilling in the quarter focused on extending the deposit footprint and testing newly identified vein sets. Drilling confirmed northward continuity beyond the inaugural mineral resource and included some of the highest-grade intervals ever recorded at FDN East. Highlights here included 4.2 meters at 169.9 grams per ton, as well as 5.9 meters at 20.3 grams per ton. In addition, the drilling demonstrated continuity of newly identified veins to the east, expanding the overall footprint of the deposit.

Speaker 4

This FDN East footprint now extends approximately 500 m east-west, 800 m north-south, and remains open to the north, east, and south, positioning it as a strong complementary growth opportunity directly adjacent to our existing infrastructure. Lastly, at FDN, near mine exploration drilling to continue to target areas close to the existing underground infrastructure with a clear potential for near-term mine plan flexibility. We've intersected the upper extension of the FDN mineral envelope, supporting potential expansion above the current mining horizon. Importantly, mineralization was encountered along the Suarez conglomerate contact, confirming continuity above the existing mineral envelope. Key intercepts this quarter included 23.6 m at 10.6 g/t, as well as 7.9 m at 8.3 g/t. These results reinforce the opportunity for incremental near mine additions that could be integrated efficiently into our future mine plans.

Speaker 4

I'd like to close with a brief update on our 2026 objectives, which remain firmly on track. We remain focused on health, safety, and environmental performance. Operationally, we are on track to deliver our 2026 production and cost guidance, with grades expected to improve through the back end of the year. We are targeting a record 133,000 meters of drilling in 2026 and have completed approximately 30,000 meters of that already. The mine-to-mill expansion study continues to advance with an integrated investment decision targeted for late 2026. At FDNS, mineral reserves are now published, and the initial underground development is underway. We remain committed to returning capital to shareholders as demonstrated by the strength of our dividends. It was a great start to the year across operations, growth, exploration and capital returns.

Speaker 4

Our 2026 objectives remain firmly on track. Operator, with that, we're now ready to take some questions.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, press star two. One moment please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Fahad Tariq from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I noticed in the first quarter, the recoveries are trending slightly below the full year guidance of 91%. Can you just talk about maybe what's leading to that? Is it the fact that there are stockpiles being blended in in the first quarter, or was it something else to do with the characteristics of the fresh ore?

Speaker 4

Yeah, maybe Terry, would you mind fielding this one?

Speaker 8

Sure, Jamie. Yeah, it, there's a geology component to that, Fahad. As we've been talking about in previous quarters, it's pretty tough for us to predict that geological variability. We also see that as we push our throughput up, recoveries drop off a little bit as well. As we're pushing our mill, there's some limits on the recovery side. Those are the two pieces to that.

Speaker 2

Okay. Maybe just as a follow-up, would it be fair to assume like a slightly lower recovery for the rest of this year just from a modeling perspective relative to the 91% guidance?

Speaker 8

We're sticking with our recoveries for now. You know, there's a few variables that we can play with there, grade being one of them, throughput being the other. We can solve for our production requirements that way, but we don't want to give up on recovery. We're sticking with our numbers for now.

Speaker 2

Okay. Maybe just lastly, there was a comment in the press release about resequencing, mine resequencing in the second quarter. Is that new? I was just trying to understand if that was part of the plan or if something led to that. If it is new, just maybe talk through what led to the resequencing.

Speaker 8

Sure. Periodically, we need to resequence the mine for a variety of reasons. In this instance, there were some geotechnical challenges that we encountered, so we needed to back out of a particular scope that had some good grade, and deferring it for later in the year. That's pretty normal course for an underground mine, and we've had to do that in the past at Fruta. That's what's impacting Q2, and that's, you know, the wording that we have in our release. That's what's behind it.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Jeremy Hoy from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking my questions. Looking ahead to the mine-to-mill study, you guys in the past have mentioned the potential to push throughput beyond the 5,500 tons per day level. I know its disclosure was a little light on that this quarter. I was just wondering if you could provide an update on your thinking around the study and around, you know, where throughput might go in future.

Speaker 4

Yeah. Thanks, Jeremy. We're not, you know, we're not being sort of purposely coy here. I think we're still working through all of the various sort of trade-off studies and advancing the engineering as we, as we sort of hone in on what we think might be the optimal rate. We'll come out with sort of more information regarding that mine-to-mill expansion study in the, you know, in the second half of the year, trending towards the later part of the second half and give some color around progress there, where we landed on throughput, where we're gonna land on CapEx, what we can, you know, think in terms of how that might, you know, impact our mine planning.

Speaker 4

It's gonna be concurrently tied with our views on how we may be able to bring FDNS into the mine plan. It's a bunch of sort of integrated things, and we'll have more and better information for you later this year.

Speaker 5

Yeah, totally understood. You have to do your work first. The other thing I'd like to ask about is the porphyry opportunities and another area where there's a lot of work to be done, drilling, et cetera. Wondering if you guys might be able to give us some sort of rough timeline on upcoming milestones related to that, including a potential initial resource.

Speaker 4

Yeah. It's, you know, I spent a lot of my career working on big copper porphyries, and what I can tell you is we're pretty darn excited about what's shaping up at FDN here. It's just remarkable in a short period of time. We have started the sort of process of putting some very conceptual pit shapes around those, Jeremy. As you can imagine, in doing so, that identifies opportunities. Opportunities where, you know, maybe there's waste material that sits within those pit shells that we could really easily drill off and look to improve. We're pretty excited by the initial results.

Speaker 4

I think there's some really low-hanging fruit in terms of some additional opportunities that could potentially, you know, make that, make that even better. We haven't really settled on a strategic, you know, when we're gonna come out with an initial resource. This will be always a bit of a trade-off is, you know, how much how Do you wanna put a pin in it today, or how much sort of low-hanging fruit, you know, could really be added to make it look even better on our first cut? You really only get, you know, one shot at putting out that initial resource. Still to be determined, but I can tell you we're pretty darn excited.

Speaker 5

Okay. Well, I appreciate the color. I guess last, just on the dividend, This is the second quarter where you guys have declared a dividend, where you're gonna pay out 100% of the normalized free cash. I guess, could you provide a little more detail on what goes into that? I mean, short of, you know, something changing significantly, can we expect that to be the same going forward in these coming quarters?

Speaker 4

Yeah. I, you know, I think you're exactly right, Jeremy. It's been a strong dividend policy, and it's supported by our board for sure, in the view that the cash being generated here, in the absence of needing it for anything else in particular, should be going back to shareholders. You know, I think when you combine the dividends that we'll be paying over the year, along with the LunR Royalties dividend in kind, this will be a remarkable year in terms of dividend yield for Lundin Gold. That's not to say that we don't reverse course here. You know, it's why we've got some flexibility in the dividend policy.

Speaker 4

If there's a need for us to start building cash, i.e., we've got, you know, something exciting from a CapEx perspective that we wanna spend on, or, you know, into the future, then we've got the flexibility to do that. I think you could expect this to be the path forward, barring any changes, which for sure we would be fully transparent and be highlighting as to why we'd be changing course.

Speaker 5

Understood. Well, thank you for the color, Jamie, and I'll pass the line.

Speaker 7

Your next question comes from Martin Pradier from Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. My question is about, in the first place, how many days will be the mill shut down in the Q2, and how much of an impact we could see in the production? The second question is, I see a lot of good results on, you know, some of the new holes. In general, I mean, we don't see all the holes. The question is, on average, when you have been putting new resources, new reserves, they were a little bit lower than the average grade of existing resources, existing reserves. Should we see something different going forward?

Speaker 4

Yeah, Martin, appreciate your question. Thank you. I think we're anticipating about 10 days of the mill to be shut down in the second quarter. You know, that's going to have, coupled with grades, as we've said, it's going to be, you know, lighter than Q1. We'll see that, we'll certainly see that reverse in Q3, which is forecast to be particularly strong. We won't have as many down days and the grade comes up. Over the course of the year, these things even out and they're just sort of fluctuations quarter by quarter. With respect to the drilling, it's been fantastic. You know, we do release all of our drill results.

Speaker 4

They're contained, you know, hole by hole within the exploration releases. What we'll see, when we, you know, when you factor those into the mineral resource and reserve estimates, despite having some, you know, some really spectacular results that are strong, you know, there's also lots of results that come in more in line.

Speaker 7

I do apologize. We're experiencing some technical difficulties, and Jamie's line was disconnected again.

Speaker 8

I can pick up where Jamie left off there, Martin. I was agreeing with everything you said. Yeah, the full results, when you take everything into context, bring the resource that we release more in line with what we've been seeing from Fruta all along. While we highlight these ultra-high grade intercepts, there are a lot of still very good intercepts that are in the mix that bring the average down. You're correct.

Speaker 6

Okay. In terms of your mill capacity in the second half, you're now doing about 5,500 tons per day. How much more can you push that mill in the second half so to offset, you know, what I think is going to be a low Q2 or what you're indicating?

Speaker 8

I think you can expect to see us continue at the rates that we've been seeing. You know, the downtime that we have for the mill is routine. We have that every year to realign our sag and ball mill. This is, you know, you can take our Q1 rates and project that forward with the days that we've provided that Jamie indicated.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1. Your next question comes from George Coelho from AGT Enterprises Limited. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hello. Thank you for taking my call. Hello?

Speaker 8

Hi. We're here.

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Okay. I've experience in manufacturing plants. The first thing, could you give us some background on what the last time accident was? The second one is your capital plan, $21 million is 1%-2% of the asset. Normally good mills have 5%-7%. I've been with Lundin since 2015, so I've seen the progression, and I am very thankful for the returns. I am concerned as the mill gets older, it will not be able to sustain the capability or demands that are being requested of it.

Speaker 8

Well, I can answer your question on the LTI, George. We had an employee working in our maintenance shop welding on a scoop bucket, and there was a piece of metal that he was cutting, and when he finished cutting, the piece of metal broke loose and crushed his finger. We had a broken finger from that incident. That's the nature of that one. It's too bad and, you know, there's some good lessons that we learned from that. You know, that's just the nature of all of our sort of improvements that we get out of these incidents. Let me know if that answers your question on that one.

Speaker 8

As far as sustaining capital goes in the mill, you know, we've been investing heavily in the mill and especially in the time that I've been with the company for the last few years. We just completed a plant expansion last year. As you know, we're looking at another plant expansion that we were just talking about with this mine-to-mill expansion study. You know, that might be distorting, you know, the percentage that you're using for sustaining CapEx being applied because we're continually reinvesting and upgrading pumps and pipes and changing out pieces of equipment on the mill. I can assure you that our mill availability is not declining with age. In fact, it's going the other way. It's improving with age.

Speaker 8

That's just the nature of the, you know, the familiarity that we have with the mill and the skill set of our plant maintenance team. They just get better with time and can stay ahead and predict our downtime better. But appreciate your comments.

Speaker 3

I assume this is Terry.

Speaker 8

Yeah. This is Terry.

Speaker 3

Yes, that answers my question, but. I don't know, I don't know how old exactly the mill is, whether it's eight years or 12 years, but it's good to have that additional flavor of availability, and it will be payback in the next 5 years. Thank you.

Speaker 8

Thanks, George.

Speaker 7

There are no further questions at this time. Jamie is back. I will turn the call back over to Jamie for closing remarks.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks, operator, apologies for my shoddy connection. I kept getting dropped. You know, I just like to summarize by highlighting how excited we are about the future. I think this is an asset that has proven itself over time in terms of operational excellence. It's generating significant cash flow, which we are returning back to shareholders. Our exploration projects, and conversion drilling is providing a platform for growth, and all of this is being done to the utmost responsible environmental, social and governance concerns in the industry. We're incredibly proud of our results for Q1 2026, and they're looking forward to delivering for the rest of the year. With that, I'll sign off. Thank you very much.

Speaker 7

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

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