Shell Q1 2026 Earnings Report

Shell EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.44
• Consensus EPS: $2.14
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.30
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Shell Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $69.69 billion
• Expected Revenue: $77.54 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$7.85 billion
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Shell Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2026
• Date: 5/7/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 9:30AM ET

Shell (NYSE:SHEL) plc (NYSE: SHEL) is a global integrated energy company that operates across the full oil and gas value chain as well as in developing lower-carbon energy solutions. The company traces its roots to the early 20th century merger of Royal Dutch Petroleum and Shell Transport and Trading, and today it is organized to explore for and produce hydrocarbons, process and refine them, manufacture petrochemicals, and market fuel, lubricants and related products under the Shell brand around the world.

Shell’s principal activities include upstream exploration and production of oil and natural gas, integrated gas operations including liquefied natural gas (LNG), and downstream refining, supply and marketing. The company also manufactures and sells petrochemicals used as feedstocks for industries and consumer products, operates global trading businesses for energy commodities, and provides fuels and convenience retailing at service stations. In recent years Shell has expanded offerings in power, hydrogen, biofuels, electric vehicle charging and other energy solutions as part of a broader strategic response to changing energy demand.

Shell has operations and commercial activities in many countries across Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa, serving retail consumers, industrial customers and governments. Its global footprint includes upstream production assets, refining and chemical complexes, LNG facilities, trading hubs and branded retail networks. The company is subject to international and local regulatory regimes and coordinates large-scale projects and logistics to supply energy and chemical products worldwide.

Shell is led by an executive team responsible for implementing corporate strategy and reporting to a board of directors. In January 2023 Wael Sawan was appointed chief executive officer, reflecting the company’s focus on both traditional hydrocarbons and the development of new energy businesses. As a publicly listed company, Shell continues to balance operational performance with investments in lower-carbon technologies and the evolving needs of global energy markets.

Shell Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: We reported a strong Q1 with adjusted earnings just under $7 billion and over $17 billion of cash flow from operations (ex‑working capital); the $11 billion working capital outflow was driven by higher commodity prices and is expected to reverse over time.
• Negative Sentiment: The Middle East conflict materially disrupted supply (affecting ~20% of Shell’s hydrocarbon production); Pearl GTL Train 2 was damaged (repair ~one year, costs expected well below $0.5 billion) and Qatar LNG outages plus Strait of Hormuz transit constraints will weigh on IG volumes near‑term.
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic portfolio move — announced acquisition of Arc Resources to add contiguous, low‑carbon‑intensity Montney acreage, raising expected production CAGR to ~4% to 2030 and accelerating liquids and LNG growth while preserving balance sheet (deal is 75% shares / 25% cash).
• Positive Sentiment: Capital allocation rebalanced — a $3 billion three‑month buyback plus a 5% dividend increase while maintaining the 40%–50% of CFFO distribution policy; reported net debt of $52.6 billion (excluding leases ~$22 billion) and management says the balance sheet retains flexibility.

Presentation

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Welcome to Shell's First Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. I'm pleased that amid heightened volatility this quarter, we delivered strong results through our relentless focus on operational performance and the strength of our integrated global portfolio. Yet again, our staff rose to the challenge and were able to deliver this safely and effectively, navigating another quarter of uncertainty. Let me first take you through our Q1 results before I come back to the impact of the Middle East conflict in more detail.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

We delivered a strong set of results, with adjusted earnings for the quarter of just under $7 billion. We generated over $17 billion of cash flow from operations excluding working capital. Our working capital outflow for the quarter was some $11 billion, reflecting the impact of higher commodity prices on inventory and receivables. We would expect a significant amount of this outflow to reverse over time. Now turning to our businesses in more detail. In Upstream, we delivered strong operational performance across the board.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

For example, in Brazil, we achieved record production levels. In Nigeria at Bonga, we completed a turnaround 10 days ahead of plan. In the U.S., our Mars platform became the first asset in the Gulf of Mexico to reach 1 billion barrels of oil production. In Integrated Gas, the continued ramp-up of LNG Canada helped to offset the impact of cyclones in Australia and the shutdown of production in Qatar. LNG trading and optimization results were broadly in line with the previous quarter, reflecting price lags in our term contracts.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Chemical margins remain depressed, but the team remains focused on making the business free cash flow positive, and we are seeing some encouraging signs. In Products, the results were driven by impressive refining performance, with utilization of 99%, and by significantly higher trading and optimization contributions. Marketing also had another great quarter, despite the pressure of higher feedstock prices in March.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Lubricant sales were seasonally higher, whilst overall segment results were also helped by our ability to optimize product flows across the different marketing businesses. Overall, this was a strong set of results in a period of volatility and uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. The Middle East is home to around 1/5 of Shell's hydrocarbon production, impacts have varied by country.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Our heartland position in Oman accounts for around 10% of our global volumes that don't pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The most significant effects for Shell have been in Qatar. At Pearl GTL, Train 2 was damaged, but thankfully nobody was hurt. We currently estimate it will take around a year to return this train back into service. The repair costs are expected to be well below 0.5 billion dollars on current estimates.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Pearl GTL Train 1, as well as the LNG train in which we hold an interest through the QatarEnergy's LNG N4JV, are start-up ready, subject to our ability to move products through the Strait of Hormuz. Whilst much of the organization has been focused on delivering despite the impact of the Middle East conflict, we have also been able to make important progress on our portfolio in line with our strategy. In Lubricants, we announced the divestment of our Jiffy Lube's network for $1.3 billion, monetizing an asset that was not core to our business.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

In Upstream and Integrated Gas, we added new acreage in the United States, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela as we continue to focus on resource longevity. Last week, we announced the strategically important acquisition of ARC Resources. ARC is a high-quality, low-cost operator in Canada's Montney Basin, complementing our existing positions at Groundbirch and Gold Creek. With this combination, we are adding highly contiguous acreage as well as long-duration, top-quartile, low-carbon-intensity production.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

ARC provides us with new growth opportunities, a liquid-rich portfolio, and LNG upside. This deal accelerates our strategy, sustaining material liquids production, growing our Integrated Gas business, extending reserve life, and increasing our expected compound annual production growth rate to 2030 from around 1%-4% compared to 2025.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Importantly, this transaction meets our high bar for M&A, with long-term value creation through double-digit returns and an increase in our long-term free cash flow, all while preserving our balance sheet strength, given the 75% share, 25% cash ratio of the deal. With the ARC acquisition, cash CapEx for the full year 2026 is expected to be between $24 billion and $26 billion, including some $4 billion for the ARC acquisition.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

For 2027 and 2028, cash CapEx remains at $20 billion-$22 billion, as we will absorb ARC's ongoing cash CapEx into our existing guidance. Moving to the rest of our financial framework. At the end of Q1, our net debt position was $52.6 billion, reflecting the working capital outflows I mentioned earlier, as well as the impact of some non-cash variable shipping lease components. Excluding leases, our net debt was some $22 billion. Our balance sheet is strong, with the flexibility we need to operate in today's volatile environment.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Turning to our shareholder distributions. Today, we are rebalancing our shareholder distributions by announcing a $3 billion share buyback program for the next three months, as well as a 5% increase of our dividend. This is in line with our existing 40%-50% of CFFO through the cycle distribution policy, which remains sacrosanct and shows our dynamic approach to capital allocation. To conclude, Q1 showed Shell's resilience and ability to deliver strong results in a volatile macro environment.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

These results reflect the strength of our integrated business model and reinforce the importance of our ongoing efforts to simplify the organization, high-grade our portfolio, and build a stronger Shell for the long term. Our Annual General Meeting 2026 will be on May 19th. We ask our shareholders to vote against the alternative resolution. By doing so, our shareholders will be endorsing this management team and our board.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

I hope you've had a chance to see our LNG Strategic Spotlight, which sets out both the growth we see in global LNG demand and how we plan to meet it. As always, our AGM provides an opportunity for our shareholders to engage directly on our progress in delivering more value with less emissions. Thank you.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. People dialed in, if you have a question, please press star one. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star two. Phone callers are requested to mute the audio on their computer webcast and listen attentively to their telephone audio as we begin to progress through the telephone questions.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered a strong set of results in the first quarter, underpinned by continued strong operational performance. Now Sinead and I will be answering your questions. Please could we just have one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity. With that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

[Operator]

Our first caller is Matthew Lofting from JPMorgan.

[Matthew Lofting, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Thanks, and my congratulations on the strength of financial performance amidst macro volatility in the first quarter. I had two topics to put forward, one fiscal and one perhaps more industrial. First on distributions and capital reallocation, I wondered if you could expand on the degree to which today's shift towards dividends over share buybacks is value-led, factoring multiples, macro conditions, as opposed to feeling a greater need to post M&A to funnel implied annualized net cash flow savings to the balance sheet.

[Matthew Lofting, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Then second, I wanted to just pick up on Integrated Gas performance and wondered if you could speak to the role and magnitude of price lagging effects within performance, because it sort of struck me that in the conditions the industry is experiencing, downstream perhaps acts as a faster response lead indicator in Q1, whereas IG margins and performance are slower burn and perhaps still to come 2Q+ as price lags and monetizing dislocations enabled by the working Cap feeds through. Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks, Matt. Tell you what, let me maybe use your second question just to talk about the performance this quarter, touch on distributions, but then hand over to you, Sinead, to maybe go through that. Firstly, just to say how incredibly proud I am of the entire company. Indeed, as you say, with the backdrop of uncertainty and volatility, this was a great quarter. I think it's the momentum that I'm particularly proud of, the momentum that we have built up.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

We have said that we are going to methodically transform this company to be a leaner, much more competitive one. What you have seen us do is drive a significant improvement in operational performance. You saw that, for example, Matthew Lofting, this quarter through some of the IG performance. LNG Canada stepped up when the Qatari volumes were out. Indeed, what you will see is that price lag effect play into the second quarter for IG results because of the term contract nature of that pricing.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Every part of the business, upstream, chemicals, products, marketing, has had a very strong quarter. You've also heard us talk about both cost and capital discipline, and again, you see that continue through. We've talked about high-grading the portfolio. Last year, we did the sale of onshore Nigeria. We sold Singapore Chemicals and Products. Of course, just last week, we welcomed ARC into the Shell family subject to completion as well, really building a foundation for long-term growth in an asset base that is very complementary to ours.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Really happy with where we are, but we are not done. My expectation of my organization is to step up at least one or two more gears, and we are developing the plans to do so, and we will continue to drive that forward. The other thing we have talked about and have said consistently is everything that we do is in service of long-term shareholder value creation. Our 40%-50% CFFO cash returns are sacrosanct. What we have said is we will be dynamic in our capital allocation to create value for our shareholders through the cycle.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

This quarter is an example of that. We've bumped up the divvy by 5%, showing the underlying confidence that we have in this company to be able to operate irrespective of the external environment. It's our 18th quarter of a $3+ billion buyback.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Indeed, what we have also done is we have been able to create capacity to be able to leverage that capacity at a down point in the cycle to lean even heavier into buybacks when we have the opportunity to do that. We are thinking long term and acting in service of that shareholder value creation over the longer term. Sinead, do you want to add more on the distributions maybe?

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

I, indeed, and thank you for that, Matt. I think the only thing that I would really add is to say in terms of the balance sheet, because balance sheet and distributions are intrinsically linked, from my perspective, I'm incredibly comfortable with the balance sheet. You know that by now. In effect, that extra cash that we're putting onto the balance sheet or the additional cash is for additional buybacks in the future when the opportunity presents itself. Looking forward to that as well.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks for that, Sinead. Matt, thank you for the questions. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

[Operator]

Our next caller is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

[Michele Della Vigna, Head of Natural Resources Research for EMEA at Goldman Sachs]

Thank you, and again, congratulations on the strong results. I wanted to ask two questions, if I may. The first one is on frontier exploration. It's not something that has created a tremendous amount of value in the industry or at Shell in the last few years. I was wondering if you think that AI and all of the improvement in computing power could actually change that and make it into a key driver for you to continue to expand your reserve life and your visibility on longer term growth.

[Michele Della Vigna, Head of Natural Resources Research for EMEA at Goldman Sachs]

Secondly, as the leading oil product marketer in the world, I was just wondering if you're starting to see some early signs of demand distractions, perhaps in areas where prices have been especially strong, like jet fuel across your global business. Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah. Thanks, Michele, let me take both of those. I think on exploration, let me maybe just broaden it beyond just frontier exploration because I do think, and I've mentioned in the past, we have made a hard reset in our exploration department from a leadership perspective. We have restocked the funnel with some very exciting opportunities in places like Angola, the Gulf of America, recently Alaska and more.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

What we are also doing is fundamentally challenging our workflows to make them much more data enabled in the way we execute those workflows. We have been embedding AI as a core part of the way that we are able to look at, in particular, our existing reservoirs, where we do have basin mastery and where we have sufficient and significant amounts of data. That allows us to be able to really understand what other opportunities we have to tap into.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Of course, for frontier exploration, we are using some of those same data enabled workflows to be able to unlock more opportunities. Too early to say how quickly that success will materialize, but we are leaning heavily into it. On your second question around the broader macro, I think what we see at the moment is a mixed picture.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

The hard facts are we are, we have dug ourselves a hole of close to 1 billion barrels of crude shortage at the moment, either because of locked in barrels or unproduced barrels, and of course, that hole is deepening every single day. The journey back will be a long one. And you're beginning to see that on the overall refining complex. Depends on the country, depends on the region. We are seeing indeed some demand curtailment to the tune of, say, 5% in areas like jet in the airline industry.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

But that's the only thing that you can expect people to do, is either drawing down on stocks, fuel switching, or in essence, demand curtailment. We continue to see resilience in many parts of the world, but the question will be how will that pan out in the coming months? Too early to speculate on that. Thanks for the questions, Michele. Luke, let's have the next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Alastair Syme from Citi.

[Alastair Syme, Analyst at Citi]

Thanks. Hi, hi Wael and Sinead. I'm trying to figure out in both refining and chemicals in this environment, you know, how it plays out in the coming period. I mean, you've got quite a large footprint to Asia, in Asia. You know, can you talk to both businesses about access to feedstock, how you can run the assets and where margins are sitting? Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah, I mean, again, we'll touch on that. Actually, our footprint in particular in Asia is more limited these days, Alastair, after, in particular, the sale of our Singapore chemical and refining footprint that we had there. The same question that you had applied, of course, into Europe as we are trying to make sure that we keep our refineries fed with crude, which of course, when you have a 12%-15% cut in overall supplies just becomes difficult.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

If you can get access to the crude, it's tough to be able to create value unless the cracks afford you that opportunity. One of the biggest benefits we have, not just for our refining and chemicals, but also for our mobility organization, is of course the strength of our trading and optimization capability. I think if there is a capability around the world that is able to take advantage of volatility, it is our capability. You see our people are unlocking value. Q1 shows you that. I think that's really key.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

I think on this broader question around chemicals. What you have heard us say also in the past is we are going to do everything we can to be able to do the self-help that we need in our chemicals business. Hopefully you see some of that playing into Q1 results. We have taken out and plan to continue to take out hundreds of millions of dollars from OpEx and CapEx in chemicals. We're improving the reliability. Q1, excluding working capital, was free cash flow positive. Good early signs.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

We're not there yet. Q2, you'll have a bit more of a tailwind, and that's partly because the margins are improving, and of course, you have the lag price effect also playing in chemicals. What we have also looked at is that this is an opportune time now to be able to build momentum around the plans that we laid out in Capital Markets Day, and that's specifically to progress either the sale or some form of capital market transaction in particular of our U.S. chemicals business, the predominance of our capital employed.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

We are leaning into that, but we will only move forward on that if we see long-term value creation for our shareholders. We lean into it, and we will see what the results are. It's a good time to be doing that now. Thanks for the question, Alastair. If we can go to the next questions, please, Luke.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research.

[Doug Leggate, Managing Director and Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Wael, I wonder if I could go back to the Alaska question real quick, and go back maybe a year or two ago when you said you had no intention of going back to areas of exploration that you weren't already in. Well, you kind of walked away from Alaska several years ago, and now you're one of the high bidders on a new lease round. Can you just frame for us what your thinking is? Is frontier new area exploration back on the table, and what are your thoughts on Alaska specifically? I've got a quick follow-up for Sinead.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah, go for the follow-up, Doug, and then I'll address the first one and pass the second one to Sinead. Go for it.

[Doug Leggate, Managing Director and Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Yeah. Thanks. My follow-up is just on the pace of the expected pace of the working capital wind down. Obviously, it's a big headwind this quarter, but obviously transitory. Sinead, I think you also said at the strategy update that you didn't expect the leases to continue to increase, but yet they have continued to increase. I'm just wondering if you can walk us through the dynamic of what's going on there.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah, Doug, thanks for the questions. Let me take the first one. I think if you look at our history in Alaska, of course, it was much more offshore Alaska. What we have gone into is onshore Alaska, and it's important to recognize how we've gone into it. We are not an operated venture. We are a non-operated player in that, and Repsol is in the lead because Repsol has deep experience in Alaska.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

They have it, and they've inherited, of course, from the acquisition of Talisman. They have production coming on stream, either already come on stream or imminently in some of those areas. These are not frontier areas.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

These are well-proven producing resource basins, which is what gives us the comfort to be able to play and why we have been comfortable going in as an NOV partner, as a non-operated venture partner, rather than an operated venture, so that we can double down on Repsol's experience in that in that regard. Sinead?

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Thank you. Thanks, Doug. There were two parts. You mentioned up front, first of all, working capital, and then you moved to leases. I think just on working capital, one of the things I would say is, yes, there is a sizable amount of working capital, of course, for us, this quarter at over $11 billion. A significant proportion, the majority of that is actually, of course, price related. Therefore, as prices change, you will see that flow back in, and that was in sort of pre-prepared remarks that I made earlier as well.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Looking forward to that coming back in. With respect to the leases, indeed, how we use leases. Our leases are predominantly in service of the underlying businesses of both our deepwater business, so through either the FPSOs or the rigs, or secondly, through ships and vessels. Some pipelines as well, but those are the two areas that you typically see them flow through. They're normally either in our upstream or related to the various trading businesses. Our leases, as you've said, are quite a significant amount.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

You saw it go up this quarter. Why did it go up this quarter? It was predominantly one lease that came through. It was the Baltic lease. You've seen some of it, I think, in news reports from other people as well. What occurred, in effect, is it's a variable lease, which we have some hedges in place against, et cetera. The way you have to account for that lease under IFRS 16 is you have to take the pricing on the spot rate, and you value the whole of the future lease at that, and that's what hits.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Therefore, you saw gearing being impacted up 1%, and you saw the actual number just over $3 billion going up on our gearing. Now, of course, I somehow doubt personally that that will occur throughout the whole length of that, but that is the accounting approach of it. Indeed, we use leases to continue to increase value. But this one is one that is simply an accounting artifact.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks, Sinead. Doug, thank you for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

[Lydia Rainforth, Managing Director and Analyst at Barclays]

Thank you, and good afternoon to you both. Again, congratulations on the strong operating performance. I've got two questions. They are slightly linked a little bit. On the first one, clearly the share price is up this year, but maybe not as much as we would all have hoped and particularly compared to some of the others. Very simple question. Are you feeling a little misunderstood at the moment in terms of the strategy side?

[Lydia Rainforth, Managing Director and Analyst at Barclays]

Secondly, if I come back to the spending and the CapEx side and a little bit on the ARC acquisition, I mean, when you think about you spend $16 billion and it closes some of the gap to 2035, but not all of what you want to? I agree, you've got a lot of time and you've got a lot of cash, you've got a lot of options. Are we actually now thinking that underlying the kind of CapEx that you need to rebuild the business is a bit higher than you've given previously? Thanks.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah. Thanks, Lydia. I think let's tag team on this one, Sinead. I'll give a bit of a perspective and then share with you. I've learned, Lydia, not to be disappointed or excited by the market. What I've learned to do is to make sure that we focus on what it is that we can control, and what is it that we can control at the moment.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

I think our operational performance, in particular in times of volatility, leveraging our trading, does mean that we are able to create real value and drive cash at times like this, which is something which I think we can do better than, I would argue, anyone else.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

This affords us the opportunity to be able to continue to strengthen our overall financial framework. We have huge confidence in where this business is going. Of course, ARC adds a level of growth that is a decadal growth for us. If we take a final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2, that's even more opportunity for growth. What we can do is make sure that then we are allocating capital in the best way possible.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

That is through the cycle. For me, what excites me about the mispricing, as you call it, the misunderstanding, is that it affords us a unique opportunity to continue to lean in on buybacks as and when the opportunities come in. The best example of this is just look at what we've done over the last four years. In the last four years, we have bought back $65 billion of shares, and we've bought it against that average price at a premium that essentially translates to 20%+ IRR.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Just doing the basic math of 2 billion shares bought back over this period and where the share price has gone. Those are the opportunities when we talk about being value hunters that we want to go for, and we will wait patiently to create those opportunities on a life cycle basis. Sinead.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Indeed, I think exactly where I would have gone to as well, I would have said, just to add, Lydia, we've taken that extra cash, The additional cash we put to the balance sheet, I told you we would use it to buy additional shares when the opportunity arose. Feel free to keep mispricing and misunderstanding us, I'll very happily buy back the shares, That's what we'll do at that point. You talked about the second question, if that's okay.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Please.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

The spending and CapEx, and I think what you were saying is, we've, through ARC, we've looked to close the gap to 2035, and do we believe that we'll need to increase our spend levels? I think what I would simply say, Lydia, is that since we had our Capital Markets Day, which wasn't that long ago, we've managed to close the gap that we'd mentioned to 2030, and we've got considerable way there, actually most of the way there to 2035.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

If you combine that with what this company seems to do every single month in terms of increasing production and ensuring that we go after every single barrel, I'm pretty comfortable that there will be no gap that we need to follow through on. In terms of spend levels, our spend level is $20 billion-$22 billion, is the CapEx that we've put forward. We've told you that with ARC, we will go up this year to, as we've said already, 2024-2026, and we've told you that we will absorb the additional ARC CapEx, assuming it closes, for 2027 and 2028.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

I would remind you that in there, in every year so far, we've been able to do small scale, inorganic opportunities as well. You know our runway is well below that, so I'm very comfortable that we can continue to maximize value within the CapEx spend that we have and be able to deploy capital to where it's best placed.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you, Sinead. Lydia, thank you for those questions. Lou, can we go to the next questions, please?

[Operator]

Our next caller is Alejandro Vigil from Santander.

[Alejandro Vigil, Head of European Integrated Energy Equity Research at Santander]

Hello, thank you for taking my questions. The first one is about the strong marketing results this quarter. In the statement, you quote the trading and optimization was very good. If there is also a component of savings in the quarter that could be recurring for the coming quarters. That will be the first one. The second one is about Venezuela. You have been very active in the media in terms of gas projects there. If you can elaborate about the opportunity there. Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks. I will, Alejandro, take the second one. Maybe, Sinead, if you want to take marketing and more broadly how you see the next quarter as well.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Sure, happy to.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Look, Venezuela, as we've talked about in the past, you know, outstanding resource. We will play in the areas where we have competitive advantages, competitive strengths. We have a long and proud history in Venezuela, and we're pleased to have the opportunity to be able to contribute to the Venezuelan people. Where we think we have particular, call it advantages, is when it comes to offshore gas.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Indeed, we have been in discussions with the Venezuelan government on opportunities to be able to monetize some of that gas, which has been long stranded out there, and ideally find the pathway to be able to monetize it through Atlantic LNG in Trinidad and Tobago. That is where our priority is.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Our current heads of agreement also encompasses some other areas which we are looking at onshore, but those are opportunities which I think will take quite some time to gestate. We're very much focused on those offshore gas opportunities for now, and we'll need to work through the coming months to be able to bring them to life. Sinead.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Yeah. In terms of results overall. First of all, you mentioned marketing had a great quarter. It did, absolutely, without a doubt. It was good in-moment decision-making, frankly, to be able to optimize. You know, if I look at our lubricants business, they did a fantastic job, particularly when they lost actually some of their supply from Pearl in March as well. Just some really good decisions there. Of course, mobility, a little bit tougher as you can expect with higher prices. Let's just talk about Q2 going forward then and what we see from that.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

You've seen some of our numbers that we've given a bit of an advanced look on. What we see for a company like ours is that integrated nature really plays out.You've got the benefit of the assets from both an Upstream and Integrated Gas against that of Downstream. You add on top of that, of course, the layering of that capability of trading and optimization, and that's where it really comes through.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Whilst we will see things like an Integrated Gas, we will see some more challenges in the second quarter in terms of the volumes coming through because of what's occurring in Qatar. We also see the benefit of the price slide coming through as well. If I then look at Downstream, and particularly Marketing, which is what you referred to, Marketing, of course, and particularly Mobility, when prices are high, that's when it's a little bit more challenging.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

You see the squeeze of the margins coming through. Those get offset, of course, in other parts of the business. You end up across the integrated portfolio having a very much advantageous position is the way I would put it.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks, Sinead. Alejandro, thank you for those questions. Luke, next questions, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Joshua Stone from UBS.

[Joshua Stone, Analyst at UBS]

Yeah, thanks and good afternoon. Just one question on Australia, because there was some news overnight that the government is looking at requiring exporters to reserve 20% of exports in the domestic market on the East Coast. Are you able to provide any initial comments of how that might impact your business and your assets in the country?

[Joshua Stone, Analyst at UBS]

Particularly interested in the Crux gas field given, as far as I'm aware, that's backfilling Prelude, I don't believe there's a domestic route for that project. Just, yeah, curious as what you're seeing there. Thanks.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks, Josh. I think long story short, early days. We have indeed, we're still in the process of absorbing the announcement. Not massively surprising, by the way, there's still quite a few details we are still awaiting, including, you know, the implementation. Remember, we are already at close to, you know, 15%+ of our overall production goes into the domestic market. The requirement of 16% or so going into the domestic market, is not a massive difference for us.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Crux indeed is locked into LNG term contracts, eventually or even flexible contracts because it goes into our portfolio. We hope to be able to have more than enough gas to be able to supply Crux LNG.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

I think this is the Australian government trying to find the right balance between LNG exports and domestic support, something which we have been doing for quite some time, and I think this is to bring the entire industry on the same page. Thanks for the question, Josh. Luke, can we have the next caller, please?

[Operator]

Our next caller is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

[Christopher Kuplent, Head of European Energy Equity Research at Bank of America]

Yeah. Thank you. Well, I think 5% DPS growth is the headline we are missing because it's quite a significant shift from, I think the last few years where you've been warning about, I think you once called it the sugar rush of giving the market a quick increase in dividends.

[Christopher Kuplent, Head of European Energy Equity Research at Bank of America]

Your publishing today, in my view, is significant, so maybe you can talk around that a little bit and explain to us the comments you've already made together with Sinead now on saving firepower to do more share buybacks in the future, cutting them today, and instead raising the dividend. Is that a new template? Should we now expect DPS to be raised more often than once per year?

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Great question, Christopher. Again, I think it's one maybe we tag team on, Sinead. Give you the floor first, and then I can supplement.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Happy to. Thanks, Chris. It gives me a good opportunity to probably debunk some of the myths that I've seen coming through on some of the write-ups as well. You articulated it well. Let me just first and foremost get us to the point that's to remind you that everything we do is in pursuit of long-term value creation. That's the start. Remind you that 40%-50% is sacrosanct in terms of the distributions, and that's what we're staying within.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

When you talk about either distributions or the balance sheet, they're intrinsically linked between the two. Back to the dividend, and you used the term sugar rush because we have used that before. We take the dividend incredibly seriously. With the dividend, what are we doing here? That 5% increase is reflecting the confidence we have in the long-term duration of the cash flows of this company. That's what it's doing. Secondly, what are we doing on the share buybacks?

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Look, pleased that some of the hard work is showing up in the share price, but some of it, we still think they're undervalued. I last used the word, egregiously before. Less egregiously than before, but not all of it has made its way in. We're continuing to do share buybacks and continuing to do $3 billion, and that's a significant amount. What we're also doing is taking that extra or additional cash, and we're allocating it to the balance sheet.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

That's been allocated to the balance sheet in service of giving us the ability to do additional share buybacks when the moment is right. This is about dynamic capital allocation. It's that rebalancing that's occurring. It's not rebasing, it's rebalancing that's occurring. We're moving that across.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you very much, Sinead. Very little to add, Christopher. I mean, the point I'd make is, you know, it was a quarter ago when Sinead and I stood here. Share price was around 15%+ lower than what it is today.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

If we are going to be prudent, long-term, value-oriented capital allocators, not looking at how we are able to indeed build the capacity to be able to not just do what we've done, but hopefully even do more and find those opportunities when there is a mispricing or when we feel that the market is just not being able to fully understand the underlying value, which we asymmetrically are able to see through the cash flow dynamics we see into the future.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

All of this is still built on what we think are further opportunities that we still have to be able to drive top-line improvement, improve the bottom line through cost takeout. Not to mention the great opportunities we are having, whether it is through some potential negotiated deals, Venezuela was mentioned, but there are others, or just organically unlocking more from what we have. All of that underpins that confidence we are showing.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

If you want to be that long-term value-oriented company, then we have to be able to not be pro-cyclical, and we have to have the courage to move in times like this, which is why I'm really proud of where the board's decision was on this one. Thank you. Can we go to the next question, please, Luke?

[Operator]

Our next caller is Lucas Herrmann from BNP Paribas Exane.

[Lucas Herrmann, Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane]

Yeah. Thanks very much. Well, Sinead, good afternoon. A couple if I might. The first one, I'm gonna need some help, I think, with the Integrated Gas business, given there are so many moving parts going into, you know, the next quarter. Obviously, we've got an extra two months, or I shouldn't say obviously, but it's likely we'll have an extra two months when, you know, the GTL facilities are both out of action. I presume you had some inventory that you were at least able to use and benefit from, you know, as you went through March.

[Lucas Herrmann, Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane]

To what extent does that impact, you know, the sensitivity to moves in prices? You know, aligned with that, I've had a month down in Qatar, but, you know, it looks as though you're gonna on-stream that LNG now or, you know, Q4 2025, whichever. How does that impact? Really just help about thinking between price and sensitivity between outages, et cetera, et cetera, how I really should be thinking about the Integrated Gas business.

[Lucas Herrmann, Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane]

Then, Wael, if I could, can I just come back to the comments you made about chemicals, particularly North America, which I'd say are the most conducive towards moving to a place where maybe you can find agreement with other parties.

[Lucas Herrmann, Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane]

Just as you sit here today, I mean, what's happened to oil suggests that ethane margin businesses are going to be better positioned, shall we say, near term, medium term, depends in part on view on price. Are you actually seeing greater interest or are people that you've been in conversation with around chemicals in recent months over the last year knocking on doors again? Why the more upbeat tone? That was it. Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

I'll take the second one and then maybe Sinead, if you want to take the first. I think why the upbeat tone, there's a couple of things at play, Lucas. I think, one, as we continue to fine-tune the operation and the reliability of the asset, you are just seeing much more the full potential of the asset, which allows us then to move into the market as well. We've had a very good run of over recent months and expect that to continue.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

That's a good point to be thinking about. You know, if you do not see the strategic fit of chemicals into your portfolio, it's a good time to be able to act when you've de-risked quality operations. I think the second point you touched on is exactly right. Ethane-based crackers, in particular one like this one, which is already significantly advantaged at the lowest end of the cost curve in the right zip code in the U.S. with the right fiscal environment, is attractive.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Of course, that tailwind does mean that you can move from discussing bottom of cycle conditions at a transaction to potentially more mid-cycle conditions, which is what, as a minimum, we would need to be able to see. I would also say that a capital markets transaction is another option we continue to have, of course, and we will develop that seriously to be able to make sure that we can balance those two options and do what's best for our shareholders at the end of the day.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

I hope one of them works out. We will make sure that if neither does, because it's not creating the value for our shareholders, that we don't execute. We are going to be very focused on creating the optionality now. Sinead.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Thanks, Lucas. Indeed, Integrated Gas in Q2 is slightly more complex. Two aspects to it. First and foremost, Pearl, and then let's talk about LNG. Both sit within the Integrated Gas segment as well. On Pearl, indeed, this is really about the two trains. One train will definitely be out for the quarter. That is clear. That's the one that is damaged and needs to be repaired, and we've talked about that previously. The other train could be up and running, but it's more about the ability, as you say, to be able to evacuate through the Strait.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

I'll leave you to make the assumption of when that will actually be and how long that will take to clear all of those vessels and actually be able to move it through. That will be a loss in terms of the income coming through from that perspective. We have the LNG side of things. Of course, our LNG business across the world is doing very well in terms of keeping those volumes up, making sure that they're performing to the best that they can. They do have the lost volumes in terms of Qatargas, as you say, from that train that you mentioned previously.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Again, if the Strait were opened, that would be able to be flowing, but it is not at this moment in time. However, the compensating impact of that, and by the way, you see that in the forecast we gave you in terms of the production and the volume numbers. The compensating impact to that is, of course, where we see the price lag coming through.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

That's typically, as you know, the three months. Interestingly, TTF, JKM volatility is still less than we saw during Ukraine and Russia. We do see the volatility there as well. You do see that coming through in Q2, which helps versus the lost volumes.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Lucas Herrmann. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

[Biraj Borkhataria, Managing Director and Co-Head of European Energy Research at RBC]

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I had two, please. The first one is just the performance in your lubricants business. It was, you know, particularly strong this quarter. It looks like the Q1 EBITDA was 30% higher than the highest result in the last two years. I'm just trying to understand, given Qatar supplies some of the base stocks, how we should think about the sustainability of that result. Is it a sort of temporary phenomenon and a mismatch between the cost and the revenues, or is there something genuinely changing in that market?

[Biraj Borkhataria, Managing Director and Co-Head of European Energy Research at RBC]

Secondly, just thinking about at the group level, if I look at your OpEx, this is a very simplistic way to look at it, in absolute terms, it looks like the momentum has stalled a little bit. I know there's always some seasonality here, but for the last couple of quarters, group OpEx is starting to increase year-on-year. You know, I think when you first took over in 2023, there was very clear momentum there. Just trying to understand, is it just inflation eating away at some of the underlying gains, or is there something else to note there? Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Very much for that, Biraj. I'll take the second question and then Sinead, if you want to touch on Luke's question. Where are we on our journey? I think firstly maybe just the context around us. We're seeing at the moment somewhere in the range of 5%+ inflationary pressure on supply chains, depending on which supply chain. Specifically, if you look at subsea equipment, FPSOs, you're seeing a lot more than that. In other areas, slightly lower. We're working really hard to be able to offset some of those bumps.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Important to also recognize that, of course, of the $5 billion-$7 billion OpEx reduction that we talked about in Capital Markets Day 2025, we are already at $5.1 billion of that, the majority being non-portfolio related, so structural. What you will also see is that we are very much going after the top end of that range now. Our organization is geared towards delivering the $7 billion. That will happen, of course, over the coming quarters. It's not linear, and that's important.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Just to compare Q1 2026-Q1 2025, you're talking less than a 2% increase in overall OpEx, which if you look at the overall market inflation, you would say we're eating a significant portion of that inflation, and that just shows you the momentum we have in the base, not to mention some of the additional efforts, initiatives that we have that will bring the total down even further towards that $7 billion structural cost reduction. Sinead.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Indeed. One add I would have on the OpEx side, of course, we've brought in a lot of new volumes as well. If you talk about the Ursa acquisition, you talk about the one in Brazil, you talk about Nigeria, those also came with additional OpEx-which partners would have had as well. Great to see good OpEx being used to actually generate other cash flows as well. You asked about lubricants in particular, Biraj, yes, it was an incredibly strong quarter. Absolutely agree with you. Number of things sort of feeding into that as well.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

It's an interesting one, as you say. If you were to look at it and say actually they lost some of their feedstock towards the end of the quarter, it was towards the end of the quarter. There were some inventories in place, of course, that they were able to do. Actually, as a result of that, we saw some advance liftings from customers because they saw the problem and were worried about it. We actually got the benefit of some advanced cash flows coming in on that as well.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

We also saw stable base oil coming through. They managed to reduce their OpEx, so back to your original question, I would say our lubricants team have been very focused on reducing OpEx as well and driving that down. Some just really hard work. They've been able to eke out just, you know, more and more every single quarter. In saying that, Q2 is going to be more difficult for them because they do not have that premium product that they've had before.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Working very well with customers to find alternatives and to make sure that where it's specifically needed, we get it to the right customer, et cetera. Great, combined work across the industry, I would say. I do agree Q2 will be more challenging. Outside of this and what is occurring with Pearl, I would say our lubricants business is really focused on driving higher and higher returns. If you were to take the Qatar situation out, I would say that they will continue to be able to drive increasing and improved returns.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you for that, Sinead. Biraj, thank you for those questions. Luke, next caller, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

[Martijn Rats, Chief Commodity Strategist and Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Yeah, good afternoon. Geez, a lot of good questions have already been asked. Let me ask you two more. I was wondering if you could say a few words about LNG Canada and your continued ownership of the current stake. There have been some press reports in the last couple of weeks that there might be some sort of part of a sale down. The other one, I recognize, it might be a bit tricky. If you don't wanna answer it, I would totally appreciate it. I wanted to raise this issue.

[Martijn Rats, Global Commodities Strategist at Morgan Stanley]

Oil exports from the U.S. have been very, very high over the last couple of weeks, not only of crude oil, but also of refined product, and as a result, we've seen these steep declines in gasoline inventories. Distillate inventories are the lowest since 2005. You sort of, you look at some of the data and it raises the specter of, you know, the return to the pre-2014 situation. There was some sort of export ban in place. I was wondering if you had any thoughts on how that could impact Shell.

[Martijn Rats, Global Commodities Strategist at Morgan Stanley]

I'm asking it because quite often with these things you can have sort of counterintuitive things where, like, you know, something goes up, something else goes down, and it all, you know, when you really start thinking through it could, you know, could be really sort of quite complex. If that were to happen, is there a particular impact on Shell that we should keep in mind?

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah. Thanks for the questions, Martijn. I'll take the second one. And if you wanna talk about LNG Canada, then Sinead. Look, I won't, I won't speculate as to what, if any, interventions might take place, but I will confirm what you are seeing, which is, of course, when you have, you know, 12%-15% of the world's crude disrupted, there is going to have to be different offsets.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

What you are indeed seeing, in particular, is many of the refineries in the U.S. are leaning towards more jet, more diesel, to be able to meet the growing demand, in particular from Europe, that had depended a bit more on Middle Eastern supplies. You see some of those exports coming through. You do see stock draws. The question is how long this lasts and how much of a problem do we build?

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Back to my earlier analogy, we've drilled a hole, 1 billion barrels' worth of a hole, and we're going deeper and deeper. To come back, it's just going to take us a lot longer. From a Shell-specific perspective, the majority of our exposures tend to be around our trading and optimization and the positions that we are taking to be able to satisfy our customers.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

All the narrative that we have, both in private and in public, seems to indicate a U.S. government recognizing that exports are not the way to go. That is very much our base case, that there will not be any export bans.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Yep. Thanks, Martijn. You asked about LNG Canada and primarily about the rumors in the market about a sell down. Look, LNG Canada is a great asset as far as we're concerned. More importantly, it's about the integrated value chain that we see. What we're always looking for is that integration.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

We're looking for the ability to be in the upstream, to be able to benefit from the liquefaction of that aspect, so the steel in the middle, and then being able to actually realize the prices outside of the country, so be able to ship it and of course trade around it as well. That integrated value chain is key. What you're hearing is a consideration from Shell in terms of the midstream element of that.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Do we need to have our funds locked up fully in the midstream part, in the steel part, or can we still benefit from it, and can we reallocate that capital elsewhere? It's a consideration, and that's what you're seeing being considered or being talked about in the press at the moment. To be clear, we still want to have exposure to the full integrated value chain.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thanks, Sinead. Martijn, thanks for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next caller, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Kim Fustier from HSBC.

[Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research at HSBC]

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a follow-up on Pearl GTL, if I may. Do you have insurance coverage for the up to $500 million of repair costs on Pearl? In terms of the one-year repair timeline, are you confident there's going to be enough contractor capacity to sort of simultaneously carry out the repairs on Pearl while two LNG trains are also being rebuilt and the Qatari LNG expansions are also ongoing?

[Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research at HSBC]

I also wanted to ask you about the, I believe the force majeure you declared on some LNG customers back in March because of the disruption in Qatar. I mean, given the vast scale of your LNG portfolio, was there any possibility to absorb the shortfall commercially, or were the effective volumes just too large?

[Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research at HSBC]

I think you've disclosed the 2.4 million tons per annum of equity LNG production in Qatar, and then on top of that you've got the LNG supply contract. Could you quantify those, please? Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Yeah. Thank you. I'll touch on a couple, and then maybe Sinead, if you want to take the Pearl GTL insurance one.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Happy to.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

The FM as well.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Sure.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Just on the one-year repair time, I was on site, Kim, just two weeks ago, had the opportunity to see where the team was. Super job by the team. All the debris has been taken out already. They had isolated the unit that was damaged. We have already put in long lead item requests, and we have a plan for execution. The scope is a limited, well-understood, well-contained scope, and so I have no doubts that we will be able to have the capacity to be able to execute that scope.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Indeed. Kim, on that one, you talked about whether we have insurance or not. just our overall ethos or philosophy around this, Shell typically self-insures, but it very much depends on the requirements in the country and our JV partners' preferences. I won't really comment on an asset-by-asset basis. That's up to the local rules and regulations, but fundamentally, you know, it sits within what we are comfortable with asset by asset. You already covered the contractor liability and availability, or availability rather than liability.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Force majeure, indeed, with respect to how do we handle force majeure, I would just simply say we follow what is in the contracts, and we are very thoughtful about what we need to do in discussion with the party who is actually operating and running the asset as well. I won't get into the details on those, of course, because it's very much contractual. I'll leave it for those who operate them to comment on it. Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you, Sinead. Kim, thanks for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Maurizio Carulli from Quilter Cheviot.

[Maurizio Carulli, Analyst at Quilter Cheviot]

Thank you very much. Congratulations on the sound and solid Q1 results. One question, if I may. Being Shell the number one LNG operator has a privileged view of the LNG market as a whole. Can you give us your opinion if the current Middle East crisis is going to cause any long-term changes in the characteristics of the LNG market and the way in which it operates? Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Maurizio, thank you for the question and for your recognition of the performance. I think couple things I'd say. Undoubtedly in the short term, the tightness of the market is real because you have 20% of the volumes are out. It's important to recognize it's different than oil. In oil, for example, the outages in the Middle East mean 12%-15% of the market is impacted. While 20% of the LNG market is impacted, that's just 3% of the overall gas market.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

It is much more sort of contained, call it across the entire commodity in that context. If you look longer term, we absolutely continue to have conviction in the role of LNG for a few reasons. If anything over the last 3-4 years, the one thing we see that everyone is starting to really get now is that national security is anchored on energy security, that national strategies, whether they are digital AI strategies, industrial strategies, environmental strategies, are all built on energy strategies.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Therefore, the importance of having diverse supplies of energy to be able to underpin security and broader strategies is key, and LNG plays an incredibly important role in that. It is versatile. It is reliable. It gives these countries the ability to have secure energy available to them. We do see a trajectory of, say, 600 million-800 million tons by 2050, resilient demand that is continuing to be there for LNG. It will go through cycles in the short, medium term, longer term we have very strong convictions.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Not all LNG is going to be the same. This is why we really like Canadian LNG, because it will be premiumized, given the proximity to the Asian markets and having a diverse portfolio like we do. We have supplies from over 10 countries and supply to over 30 countries. That is where the real premiumization of that LNG can play up, and you see it day, quarter in, quarter out through our LNG results. Thank you for that question. Let's go to the next caller, please, Luke.

[Operator]

Our next caller is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen.

[Jason Gabelman, Director and Analyst at TD Cowen]

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to something that was discussed about feeling good about closing that 300,000-400,000 barrel per day gap in the early 2030s. It sounds like some of that is still dependent on organic opportunities developing. How much of that have you closed thus far, and how much of that do you think will close moving forward as a result of positive exploration success or other organic opportunities? My second question is on the power segment, which I know is less of a focus now.

[Jason Gabelman, Director and Analyst at TD Cowen]

You know, that segment generated outsized earnings in 2022 as a result of the high energy prices. There's been some restructuring since then in the business. Do you still see the same earnings capacity in that business in this type of environment? Conversely, does that, do the higher prices enable potentially additional restructuring opportunities? Thanks.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Jason, thank you for those two questions. I'll take the first one and then ask Sinead to address the second one. Look, I don't like to use the word gap because it almost starts to drive a volume over value mentality. I mean, just look at what we have done since we put out there exactly what our production numbers were through to 2035. At the time, we had talked about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2030, you know, around 150,000 to get there.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

We have now been able to, in a short period of time, show a trajectory for growth in our oil and gas production from 2025-2030 to the tune of 4%, up from 1%, making us one of the leaders in the industry in terms of that growth trajectory subject to the closing of the ARC acquisition. We will always be looking at opportunities to create value, and of course, those opportunities will have an effect into the 2030s as well through into 2035.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

We do think that some of the exploration opportunities will contribute, both some of the, call it more frontier opportunities, but also remember, we have a lot of opportunities to explore near our existing assets in many of the theaters in which we play. That will create value. Also, we also have a lot of negotiated opportunities. Venezuela, we're positioning for plays in a, in a place like Kuwait, in Libya, and multiple other locations.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Nigeria, we have some really exciting growth options. It's not the time now to sort of update on where all of those are. Suffice it to say that what we said was we were going to be developing 1 million barrels per day between 2025 and 2030. We've already, sorry, de-delivered a quarter of that. We have the other three quarters, add on top of that close to 400,000 barrels per day that will be coming from ARC.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

It just shows you the strength of the portfolio that's coming through and the underlying cash flow that gives us the confidence both to be able to grow the dividend today, but also, as I said, to then have the countercyclical weight to lean into our buybacks even more when the opportunity comes up. Sinead Gorman.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Yeah. Jason, I'll keep it short. First of all, indeed, our renewables, our RES, sector had a very good quarter. That was primarily down to our trading colleagues indeed being able to maximize value through, frankly, actually what happened in January, which was a cold winter in the U.S. We've almost forgotten about that since then.

[Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director at Shell]

Looking forward, what we expect to see, we do expect to see the mix is shifting towards, as we've talked about before, strategically towards flex assets, which will allow us to drive more and more that ability to indeed be able to maximize returns going forward. Outside of that, of course, you see some small scale dilutions that are still occurring in some of our original renewables, asset base as well.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you for that question as well. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

[Operator]

Our final caller is Mark Wilson from Jefferies.

[Mark Wilson, Managing Director and Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you. You won't be surprised to know that most of my questions have been answered. An anecdotal question. One of your peers spoke to a vessel being able to pass the strait. I just wonder if you have seen anything like that and or how many vessels you have on the inside of it. Thank you.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

We still have a few, Mark, that are on the inside. I won't give specific numbers, you'll appreciate, because of the importance of keeping that confidential. We are getting a lot of signals from different governments, what we are trying to do is to exercise prudence. I spoke to a crew just last week, a crew that has been caught there for a couple of months. Most important thing is they feel well looked after. They feel safe. I asked them how they're keeping busy. They are playing cards at night.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

They are connecting. I just pray that we are able to continue to see that safe space they are in. We will wait until we feel that it is absolutely safe to traverse them out of the strait. We will not do anything until we have that full conviction. There are lives at stake, and we will want to make sure that we handle that as we have handled all of our priorities at the moment. It starts with the safety of our people through this very difficult period. Thank you for the question, Mark.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

As that was the last question, let me thank you for your questions and for joining the call. In conclusion, we have delivered a strong set of financial results in this quarter, supported by another quarter of strong operational performance across the businesses. We're living through a period of heightened uncertainty and volatility.

[Wael Sawan, CEO at Shell]

Shell has experience operating within and navigating these conditions as we continue to deliver more value with less emissions. Wishing everyone a pleasant end of the week. Thank you very much in behalf of both Sinead and myself.

Participants

Executives

• Sinead Gorman, CFO and Executive Director
• Wael Sawan, CEO

Analysts

• Alastair Syme, Analyst at Citi
• Alejandro Vigil, Head of European Integrated Energy Equity Research at Santander
• Biraj Borkhataria, Managing Director and Co-Head of European Energy Research at RBC
• Christopher Kuplent, Head of European Energy Equity Research at Bank of America
• Doug Leggate, Managing Director and Analyst at Wolfe Research
• Jason Gabelman, Director and Analyst at TD Cowen
• Joshua Stone, Analyst at UBS
• Kim Fustier, Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research at HSBC
• Lucas Herrmann, Head of Oil & Gas Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane
• Lydia Rainforth, Managing Director and Analyst at Barclays
• Mark Wilson, Managing Director and Analyst at Jefferies
• Martijn Rats, Chief Commodity Strategist and Head of European Oil & Gas Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• Martijn Rats, Global Commodities Strategist at Morgan Stanley
• Matthew Lofting, Analyst at JPMorgan
• Maurizio Carulli, Analyst at Quilter Cheviot
• Michele Della Vigna, Head of Natural Resources Research for EMEA at Goldman Sachs