Micron Technology Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
September 27, 2021

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Micron's 4th Quarter 2021 Financial Release Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer period.

Operator

Thank you. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Farhan Ahmad, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and welcome to Micron Technologies' fiscal 4th quarter 2021 financial conference call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO and Dave Zinsno, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will be approximately 60 minutes in length. This call, including the audio and slides, is also being webcast from our Investor Relations website at investors. Micron.com.

Speaker 1

In addition, quarter. Our website contains earnings press release and the prepared remarks filed a short while ago. Today's discussion of financial results will be presented on a non GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP financial measures may be found on our website. As a reminder, a webcast replay will be available on our website later today.

Speaker 1

We encourage you to monitor our website atmicron.com throughout the quarter for the most current information on the company, including information on the various financial conferences that we will be attending. You can follow us on Twitter microntech. As a reminder, the matters we will be discussing today include forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made today. Conference call.

Speaker 1

We refer you to the documents we filed with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10 ks and 10 Q for a discussion of the risks that may affect our future results. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward looking statements are reasonable, We cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward looking statements after today's date to conform these statements to actual results. I will now turn the call over to Sanjay.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon, everyone. We delivered outstanding results in fiscal Q4, achieving robust profitability and the 2nd highest quarterly revenue in Micron's history. Strong execution drove healthy results across segments, including record quarterly revenue in NAND as well as in our embedded business. Fiscal 2021 was a year of many records for Micron.

Speaker 2

We achieved our highest ever mobile revenue driven by all time high managed NAND revenue and MCP mix. Our embedded business had a tremendous record breaking year with auto and industrial businesses both had substantial new highs. And our crucial branded consumer business and overall QLC mix in NAND all hit records in fiscal 2021. Through the year, we successfully navigated multiple obstacles brought on by the pandemic and reached several key milestones. For the first time in Micron's history, we established technology leadership concurrently in both DRAM and NAND.

Speaker 2

Micron's 1 alpha DRAM and 176 layer DAND are the industry's most advanced nodes in high volume production. And we further strengthened our product leadership by becoming first to introduce LP5X DRAM and UMCP5 managed NAND in mobile and the industry's 1st functional safety capable LP5 for automotive applications. The secular demand for memory and storage combined with Micron's focused execution and our rock solid balance sheet position us well to deliver strong financial performance and create significant shareholder value in fiscal 2022 and beyond. Demonstrating our confidence in our business trajectory, we initiated a quarterly dividend that we aim to grow over time. Memory is at the leading edge of semiconductor manufacturing and Micron has leadership in both DRAM and NAND technology.

Speaker 2

This quarter, we reached mature yields in our ramp of 1 alpha DRAM and 176 layer NAND 20% to 30% faster than prior nodes and delivered performance and feature improvements that will help unleash customer innovation. We believe we are several quarters ahead of the industry in deployment of these process technologies. Additionally, through deeper customer collaboration, we have further accelerated the time to market for value added solutions built using these nodes. 1 Alpha and 1Z DRAM nodes combined now represent the majority of our DRAM bit production driven by strong growth of 1 Alpha production. And by the end of the calendar year, 176 layer NAND will make up the majority of our NAND bit production.

Speaker 2

Looking beyond 1 alpha DRAM and 176 layer NAND, We are investing to sustain scaling in both technologies for the next decade. Adding momentum to our years of R and D and EUV, We recently took delivery of the industry's latest EUV system, NXE3600, at our Boise headquarters, where we operate one of the world's most advanced centers for semiconductor research and development. The delivery of this tool is an important milestone toward our previously disclosed plan of implementing EUV in high volume manufacturing in the 2024 timeframe. We expect that the integration of EUV with our existing multi patterning, commercial lithography expertise will help us maintain DRAM technology leadership for many years to come. In addition to being a technology leader and an innovation partner, We are uniquely positioned as a strategic supplier to our customers.

Speaker 2

Micron is the only U. S.-based memory company and our strong global manufacturing network provides us with a diversified source of supply, which has become increasingly critical to ensure that we continue to deliver product reliably to our customers. The advantages of this unique position have been proven throughout the past 18 months as we have successfully navigated the challenges of COVID-nineteen across our global manufacturing network, while maintaining continuity of supply to our customers. Now, let us review our end markets. The demand for memory and storage has evolved dramatically from the PC centric era.

Speaker 2

Today, Demand for memory and storage is driven from diversified end markets that extend from data center to the intelligent edge and to a growing diversity of user devices. As a result of growing memory and storage content per device, DRAM and NAND now account for an ever increasing portion of the bill of materials for our customers. DRAM and NAND TAM share of semiconductor industry has steadily grown over the last 2 decades from around 10% to approximately 30% today. The AI and 5 gs revolution is only in its infancy And as these secular growth drivers gain further traction, we expect new data intensive applications to continue to fuel significant increases in DRAM and NAND TAM. In the fiscal Q4, data center revenue grew sequentially and year over year fueled by secular drivers in cloud demand and the resurgence of enterprise IT investment linked to improving economic growth.

Speaker 2

Data center has become the largest market for memory and storage, driven by the rapid growth in cloud. With our broadening portfolio of differentiated products across memory and storage, we are in a strong position to drive strong growth and profitability in this important segment. We have been engaged on DDR5 from initial specification development and are well placed to support customer transitions to DDR5 enabled platforms starting later this calendar year. We are also enhancing our NVMe SSD portfolio and will soon introduce PCIe Gen 4 data center SSDs with Micron designed controllers and leveraging the full benefit of vertical integration. These SSDs will strengthen our market position over the course of the coming quarters and years in the fast growing data center NVMe storage market.

Speaker 2

Work and learn from anywhere trends are driving the 2nd consecutive year of double digit PC unit sales growth and calendar 2021. In the fiscal Q4, PC DRAM revenue was up significantly year over year. We are making strong progress transitioning our PC DRAM to our 1 alpha node, which represented a meaningful portion of our FQ4 PC bit shipments. Client QLC SSD bit mix hit a new record and made up the majority of our client SSD bit shipments and FQ4. Our QLC leadership enhances our bit supply capability and product profitability.

Speaker 2

We also have continued momentum ramping 176 layer NAND products for the PC market and we qualified our 176 layer NAND based Gen 4 NVMe client SSDs with several PC OEMs during the quarter. In graphics, revenue increased sequentially and year over year driven by a continuation of last quarter's strong next generation game console and graphics card shipments. Micron holds an excellent position in the fast growing graphics market with a broad product portfolio featuring our proprietary GDDR6X product line and deep partnerships with leading GPU suppliers. Fq4mobilerevenueincreasedmorethan25percentyearoveryear, driven by continued unit sales and content growth. We expect overall smartphone unit sales to grow this year with sales of over 500,000,000 5 gs mobile phones forecasted.

Speaker 2

These content rich phones featured more than 50% higher DRAM and doubled the NAND content than 4 gs phones. We expect 5 gs and AI to drive new innovation in applications such as AI optimized video capture and editing that will fuel DRAM and NAND content growth for years to come. Our 1 Alpha LP4 16 gigabit design is now fully qualified and ramping at multiple OEMs, while our 176 layer NAND achieved its first UFS 3.1 qualifications at 2 OEMs. These wins demonstrate Micron's leadership in the mobile market and our continued strength in managed NAND products, where MCP sales surpassed $1,000,000,000 for the 3rd straight quarter. We are continuing to see strong demand in our edge markets, which includes automotive and industrial IoT.

Speaker 2

We expect the automotive and industrial markets to be the fastest growing memory and storage markets over the next decade. As the number one player in these markets, Micron is exceptionally well positioned to benefit from these secular growth trends. Our automotive business delivered the 4th consecutive record quarter, driven by continued recovery in auto manufacturing and the growth of memory and storage content driven by in vehicle infotainment and driver assistance applications. Industrial IoT revenues also set records in the fiscal 4th quarter, benefiting from the continued growth of applications such as point of sales devices, factory automation and surveillance. We expect industrial demand trends to accelerate further as 5 gs speeds the adoption of data intensive applications powered by intelligent edge infrastructure.

Speaker 2

We are also seeing an acceleration in our consumer IoT business driven by rapid growth in devices such as VR headsets, Smart Exercise Equipment and Smart Speakers. Turning to market outlook, calendar 2021 is shaping up to be a strong year. We expect calendar 2021 industry DRAM bit demand growth to be in the low 20% range and industry NAND bit demand growth to be in the high 30% range. Overall, our preliminary view is that calendar 2022 industry bit demand growth will be consistent with long term industry bit demand growth CAGRs in the mid to high teens for DRAM and approximately 30% for NAND. We anticipate underlying demand in calendar 2020 due to be led by increasing data center server deployments, 5 gs mobile shipments and continued strength in automotive and industrial markets.

Speaker 2

Additionally, non memory supply shortages that are constraining customer bills across various end market segments and that are pushing out some demand should ease throughout 2022, supporting demand growth during the year. Given prudent industry CapEx and very lean supplier We expect healthy industry supply demand balance and robust profitability for both DRAM and NAND in the year. In the near term, our FQ1 bit shipments will decline modestly in both DRAM and NAND from very strong levels in FQ4. Some PC customers are adjusting their memory and storage purchases due to shortages of non memory components that are needed to complete PC bills. We expect this adjustment at our PC customers to be largely resolved in the coming months.

Speaker 2

We are also seeing constraints within our supply chain for certain IC components, which will somewhat limit our bit shipments in the near term. Bit shipment growth will resume in the second half of the fiscal year and we are planning to deliver record revenue with solid profitability in fiscal 2022. Our calendar year 2022 bit shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will be in line with the industry. However, due to the strong shipments in fiscal year 2021 and our below normal current inventory level. For fiscal year 2022, our bit shipment growth for DRAM and NAND will somewhat lag the long term CAGR.

Speaker 2

In fiscal year 2022, the continued ramp of 1 alpha and 176 layer NAND should provide us with good front end cost reductions. Our efforts to increase supply chain resilience and provide business continuity to our customers will cause headwinds to our assembly and packaging costs consistent with the trend in the overall industry. Overall, we expect annual cost per bit reductions to be competitive with the industry in fiscal year 2022 and over the long term. Turning to capital expenditures. We expect fiscal year 2022 CapEx in the range of $11,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 The year on year increase in CapEx is driven by our continued 176 layer NAND transition, pilot line enablement for next generation NAND and DRAM and continued infrastructure and prepayments to support the introduction of EUV.

Speaker 2

Fiscal year 2020 2 DRAM equipment CapEx for manufacturing will decline from fiscal year 2021 as we benefit from the capital efficiency of our mature 1 Alpha node. For fiscal year 2022, Our bit supply growth will be achieved through no transitions alone as we are a few years away from needing wafer start additions to keep up with the industry demand. We also expect to increase fiscal year 2022 R and D investment by approximately 15% from fiscal year 2021 to deliver bold product and technology innovations designed to fuel the data economy as well as to expand our portfolio to capitalize on opportunities such as high bandwidth memory and CXL solutions. Our leadership portfolio, product quality, Supply chain agility and deep customer relationships make us a preferred partner in many of our markets, and we are confident in our ability to continue to create long term sustained profitability and returns built on that leadership. I will now turn it over to Dave.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Sanjay. Micron delivered excellent FQ4 results highlighted by our 2nd highest quarterly revenues, strong gross and operating margins and our substantial positive free cash flow. Total FQ4 revenue was approximately $8,300,000,000 up 11% quarter over quarter and up 37% year over year. As a reminder, fq4 of last year was a 14 week quarter and impacts our year over year comparisons. FQ4 revenue growth was broad based with solid demand and price increases in both DRAM and NAND.

Speaker 3

Our robust growth in fq4 contributed to strong performance in FY 2021 with revenue of $27,700,000,000 which was up 29% from the prior fiscal year. FQ4 DRAM revenue was $6,100,000,000 representing 74% of total revenue. DRAM revenue increased 12% sequentially and was up 39% year over year. Bit shipments increased in the lower single digit percentage sequentially and ASPs increased in the high single digit percent range quarter over quarter. For the fiscal year, DRAM revenue increased 38% year over year to $20,000,000,000 representing 72% of total fiscal year revenue.

Speaker 3

Fq4 NAND revenue was approximately $2,000,000,000 an all time high and representing 24% of the total revenue. NAND revenue increased 9% sequentially and was up 29% year over year. Bit shipments increased by low single digit percentage sequentially, while ASPs increased in the mid single digit percent range quarter over quarter. For the fiscal year, we achieved a new company record for NAND revenue of $7,000,000,000 an increase of 14% year over year. NAND revenue represented 25 percent of our total fiscal year revenue.

Speaker 3

Now turning to our FQ4 revenue trends by business unit. Revenue for the compute and networking business unit was $3,800,000,000 up 15% sequentially and up 26% year over year. Growth was led by the data center and graphics markets. Revenue for the mobile business unit was $1,900,000,000 down 5% sequentially and up 29% year over year. Mobile demand remained healthy in the quarter with continued momentum from the rollout of 5 gs.

Speaker 3

MBU revenue for fiscal 2021 exceeded $7,000,000,000 and set a new record. Revenue for the storage business unit was $1,200,000,000 up 19% from the prior quarter and up 32% year over year. Data center SSDs had strong growth in the quarter driven by enterprise and cloud strength. QLC shipments set a new record in the fiscal year in terms of percentage of our NAND shipments. Finally, the embedded business unit generated record revenue of $1,400,000,000 which was up 23% sequentially and more than doubled year over year.

Speaker 3

We continue to experience strong demand across the automotive and industrial markets. For the fiscal year, EBU revenue easily exceeded $4,000,000,000 setting a new revenue record. The consolidated gross margin for FQ4 was 47.9%, up 500 basis points from the prior quarter. Pricing increases across DRAM and NAND as well as strong execution in our ongoing product portfolio transformation drove margin expansion in the quarter. Operating expenses in FQ4 were $891,000,000 on the lower end of the range we provided in last quarter's earnings call.

Speaker 3

Fq4 operating income was $3,100,000,000 resulting in an operating margin of 37%, up from 32% in fq3 and up from 21% in the prior year. Fq4 EBITDA was $4,700,000,000 resulting in an EBITDA margin of 57.1% compared to 53.3% in the prior quarter and 47.4% in the prior year. For the fiscal year, total EBITDA was $14,000,000,000 up from $9,000,000,000 in the prior fiscal year and represented 50.4 percent of revenues. Non GAAP earnings per share in FQ4 were $2.42 up from $1.88 in FQ3 and up from $1.08 in the year ago quarter. EPS included approximately $0.02 of gains from investments in our venture arm Micron Ventures.

Speaker 3

For the fiscal year, total EPS was $6.06 up more than 100% from the $2.83 achieved in the prior fiscal year. Turning to cash flows and capital spending, we generated $3,900,000,000 in cash from operations in FQ4, representing 47 percent of revenue. For the fiscal year, cash from operations totaled $12,500,000,000 up from $8,300,000,000 in the prior fiscal year. Net capital spending was $2,000,000,000 during the quarter and $9,700,000,000 in fiscal 2021. We generated positive free cash flow of $1,900,000,000 in FQ4 and over $2,800,000,000 for the fiscal year.

Speaker 3

The increased cash flow was driven by strong revenue growth, increased profitability and efficient working capital management. As Sanjay mentioned, we expect our fiscal 2022 capital spending to be between $11,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 Like fiscal 2021, we expect our capital spending to be weighted more to the first half of the fiscal year, which will constrain free cash flow in FQ1 and FQ2. We do expect to generate healthy free cash flow in fiscal 2022, but weighted toward the back half of the year. We also expect to close our Lehigh fab sale within FQ1 and we will receive approximately $900,000,000 in proceeds from the sale. We completed share repurchases of $1,100,000,000 or approximately 13,900,000 shares in FQ4.

Speaker 3

For the fiscal year, we repurchased $1,200,000,000 where approximately 15,600,000 shares. From fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2021, we generated over $20,000,000,000 of free cash flow. During this period, we used approximately $5,000,000,000 of that cash flow to retire debt and $7,000,000,000 towards buying back stock and eliminating the dilution from convertible debt, reducing our share count by 148,000,000 shares. We also improved our total cash and investment position by $5,500,000,000 We expect that we will continue to generate strong free cash flow in the future. And as we discussed on our capital return strategy call in early August, we are committed to returning more than 50% of cross cycle free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of buybacks and a quarterly dividend that we expect we can grow over time.

Speaker 3

The first dividend payment of $0.10 per share will be paid on October 18 to shareholders of record as of October 1. The initiation of a dividend is an important milestone that reflects structural transformation Micron has undergone over the last several years and it shows our confidence in the sustainability of our cash flow generation. Our ending at Q4 inventory was $4,500,000,000 and average days of the quarter were 94 days, below our normal range of 95 days to 105 days. FQ4 finished goods dollar inventory ended at the lowest level since the Alpida acquisition in in 2013. We ended the fiscal year with $10,500,000,000 of total cash and investments and $13,000,000,000 of total liquidity.

Speaker 3

Our FQ4 total debt was $6,800,000,000 Now turning to our outlook. End demand across our major markets remain strong. As Sanjay mentioned, our bit shipments are expected to decline modestly in FQ1 as we normalize our inventory position and work with PC customers as they manage through their supply chain challenges. And on the gross margin side, our outlook is similar to how we viewed FQ4. While we will benefit from our node transitions on both DRAM and NAND, we will continue to see near term headwinds from COVID related expenses in assembly and packaging.

Speaker 3

As a result, we expect the gross margins in FQ1 to be largely a function of the mix. With all these factors in mind, Our non GAAP guidance for FQ1 is as follows. We expect revenue to be $7,650,000,000 plus or minus $200,000,000 gross margins to be in the range of 47 percent plus or minus 100 basis points and operating expenses to be approximately $915,000,000 plus or minus $25,000,000 Excluding the impact of any potential new tax legislation, we expect our non GAAP tax rate to be approximately 10% for Q1. Based on a share count of approximately 1,140,000,000 fully diluted shares, we expect EPS to be $2.10 plus or minus $0.10 In closing, fiscal 2021 was a year of considerable growth and success for Micron. Looking at 4 year average metrics reveals the sustained cross cycle performance of our business.

Speaker 3

Over the last 4 years, our gross margins have exceeded 40% and our operating cash flow margins have been approximately 50%. Despite the challenges stemming from the ongoing pandemic, We have continued to generate significant positive free cash flow while making substantial investments to grow our business. Our technology, product and financial position provides strong momentum as we enter the new fiscal year. I'll now turn it back to Sanjay.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dave. I would like to share a recent accomplishment that makes me especially proud of our company. Our strong Micron culture has played a significant role in driving our results aligned to our broader vision to transform how the world uses information to enrich life for all. Our company culture, community leadership and business performance has been recognized globally, earning multiple industry awards and recognitions this year. This month, we were ranked by Fortune as one of the top 20 best places to work in manufacturing and production, the only semiconductor company to earn this recognition.

Speaker 2

Fiscal 2021 was an excellent year for Micron. As our Q4 results clearly demonstrate, we are delivering strong financial results. We are planning to deliver record revenues and solid profitability in fiscal year 2022. Demand for memory and storage is solid across market segments. Industry trends like the broad integration of artificial intelligence into all computing, proliferation of the intelligent edge, Continued data center growth and deployments of 5 gs networks create new and expanding opportunities for Micron.

Speaker 2

The importance of semiconductors to these markets is underscored by government initiatives to invest in domestic semiconductor production, both here in the U. S. Through the CHIPS Act and in other countries around the world. We are focused on building our technology leadership to deliver bold new solutions that offer unique value to our customers. Our business is robust and we are energized to seize the opportunities ahead of us at a truly exciting time in the semiconductor industry.

Speaker 2

We will now open for questions.

Speaker 1

Operator, can you please open the line for questions?

Speaker 4

We have your first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. There are a lot of concerns on inventories in all of your end markets, especially PCs, just Given the non memory component shortages that are limiting notebook and desktop shipments in the second half of the year, can you guys just qualitatively describe customer and channel inventories in PC, server and smartphone segments of your business. And Also as you normalize your inventories to the first half of this fiscal year, do you guys anticipate normal level of inventories on your balance

Speaker 2

So, I will have Dave comment on the second part of your question. And on your overall inventory question, I would say that by and large inventory among our customers is in decent shape. Of course, we talked about the PC market, where due to semiconductor component shortages, our PC customers, some of them Are not able to fulfill all of their end demand and therefore they have made some adjustments in their purchases impacting some of our demand in the near term into the PC market. And we think this is short lived and over the course of next few months, This will work itself out. And on the smartphone side, of course, you know that new phone cycle New phone launches are coming up and this tends to be a seasonally strong quarter for new smartphone shipments as well.

Speaker 2

And while some customers made because of geopolitical considerations or Through the lessons learned during the pandemic or their own supply chain considerations or supply chain shortages, maybe Having a strategy of carrying more inventory than some other customers, overall, the smartphone market continues to be Driven by 5 gs transformation transition, smartphones over the course of calendar year 2020 2 with 5 gs increasing by 50% from the 2021 levels. And on the data center side, Of course, the investment cycle is strong on the data center side. And of course, the pandemic has driven a strong acceleration in digital transformation And that's certainly extending into the cloud, cloud services, video streaming, e commerce, all of these trends, Along with new architectures, new processors that are being introduced that actually enable greater AI capability into the workloads and greater Usage of greater attach of memory in the servers, all of these also are creating new demand. So overall data center Inventory levels also in decent shape. So inventory in our markets today is in much better shape than it was back in the 2018 timeframe.

Speaker 2

Again, some customers may have higher levels due to their strategic considerations and they may Choose to continue to do so in the longer term as well, given the challenges faced by the supply chains during the pandemic As well as given geopolitical considerations, so this is what I would like to share with you on inventory. And Dave, you can add the second part of the discussion.

Speaker 3

So just as a reminder, when we look at our optimal level of inventory, we'd like to see it be 100 plus in terms of days. We can operate slightly below that. We are definitely below the optimal level at 94 days. I'd say the lowest we'd ever like to see it go is below 95 days. And so we think we will make a little bit of improvement next quarter on in terms of days.

Speaker 3

It will probably be up a few days. But I think it's going to kind of be still below that 100 day figure. As we look through the year, it's assuming we can make some progress On inventory, we think we can get it more into the what we would call the optimal stage, which is 100 to 105 days of inventory. It's probably going to exit The year somewhere in the 100 days of inventory. As we already talked about, finished goods inventory is really where we're particularly lean And we do have to make some progress in that space to get ourselves into a better position.

Speaker 3

But overall, I'd say the back half of the year will probably be in the

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you for the insights there. And you mentioned in your prepared remarks seeing constraints within your supply chain for certain IC components, which is going to limit some of your bit shipments also here in the near term. Can you just give us some examples of some of these IC Components both in DRAM and in NAND, I assume, for example, you have some NAND controller constraints, but what about in DRAM?

Speaker 2

So Harlan, you're right to note that some of the controller shortages are there with respect to SSD and particularly impacting the data center SSD. We also have certain shortages of analog, ICs and these kind of shortages are impacting our ability to ship to the full demand level that we are seeing from the customers. And if you look at controllers, some of the analog ICs, As well as in general, overall supply chain is running tight, and we have done a great job by our supply chain team In addressing these needs in the past and they continue to work on securing the supply for the future and we would expect that over time this will get better.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Sanjay.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of C. J. Muse of Evercore. Your question please.

Speaker 6

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping to drill in into your gross margins, pretty impressive despite the top line guide. So I guess a couple parts here. First, in terms of the cost down within the November quarter, I'm assuming more DRAM than NAND.

Speaker 6

Can you speak to that? Can you also speak to mix shift in the quarter? And then for all fiscal 2022, how should we be thinking about the type of cost downs across both DRAM and NAND? Should we I think 10% plus is sustainable year on year for DRAM and Similar type number, if not higher on NAND or how should we think about that? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. So let me start with the near term outlook. I would say the cost declines for the November quarter are going to be pretty minimal. We obviously are getting a benefit from both our 1 alpha node and our 170 layer node in NAND. But we are running into some cost headwinds as it relates to the back end, mostly a function of the pandemic and the disruptions that's caused to the supply chain and so forth.

Speaker 3

And that's Actually both a NAND and a DRAM comment quite honestly. So no specific direction either way on DRAM and NAND. As it relates to mix, obviously, we have a range. It It can go a couple of different ways, obviously, but there could be a little bit of a mix shift between DRAM and NAND that could impact where the gross margins end up. Also by business unit, we could see some mix shifts within the business units, which could impact and our margins as well and even down to the product level.

Speaker 3

So it's hard to call within a couple of 100 basis points. So that's why we gave this range. As I've mentioned in the prepared remarks, it's pretty similar to the range we gave. In fact, it's exactly the same as we gave in the prior quarter. So we're roughly Seeing things pretty similarly to what we saw in the 4th fiscal quarter.

Speaker 3

And I agree with you, these are great gross margins. We're pretty happy with them. The operating margins that this generates is in mid to high 30s. We're expecting something similar for the 1st fiscal quarter. So We think we're executing very well on the profitability side of the business.

Speaker 3

On fiscal 2022, we do expect Really good cost declines on the front end side for both DRAM and NAND, again, a function of 1 alpha in DRAM and 176 layer in NAND. When we look at kind of longer term cost declines for DRAM, we see them as being mid to high single digit percent cost declines for the industry. We think from a front end perspective for DRAM, we'll do better than that next year. On the NAND front, we see cost declines over time being more in the mid teens. And we think the 176 layer next year will drive cost declines in that range next year as well.

Speaker 3

Obviously, Q1, Q2 will likely have these cost headwinds as it relates to the pandemic and the supply challenges. So those things might impact us in the 1st couple of quarters, but hopefully Over time that starts to go away and we'll start to see the benefit also on the back end. We made a lot of investment on the back end to improve our cost structure. And I think once we get behind this or get this behind us, I should say, as it relates to the pandemic, we'll start to experience a lot The cost benefits that we've put in place on the back end as well. I'd also note that when we look at our cost structure today and as we are looking into next year, all the way through the year.

Speaker 3

We think the cost reductions that we're seeing are very competitive with the industry. And the cost headwinds we're seeing Are very similar to the cost headwinds that others within the industry, not only in memory, but also across the entire semiconductor space, are seeing. So we think this sets us up for, as Sanjay mentioned very good profitability for next year. And I think that pretty much covers it.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Shannon Cross of Cross Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much. The first question I had is with regard to pricing. Can you talk about some of the pricing dynamics, especially with the pullback demand from the PC vendors. Are you expecting to see any more aggressive moves from your competitors? Although given your comments on gross margin, I'm guessing the answer may be no.

Speaker 7

And then my second question is just with regard to your PC OEM partners. How are you tracking confidence that they're going to actually see the demand come through in second half of the year, because I get a lot of Questions from people about double ordering, even just from their end customers. So I'm just wondering if you've changed any methodology in how you're tracking, What your partners are seeing or how you're providing guidance as you look out? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So, with respect to pricing, we do not provide comments on pricing, but you can look at our FQ4 results and of course, we reported that both for DRAM and NAND in FQ4, pricing increased. And you are And you are right to note that our gross margin guidance for fq1 is strong, in fact, same As Dave earlier pointed out, as our FQ4 guidance was at the time of our June call, and as you look at And not only just FQ1, for fiscal year 2022, we are projecting record year for the company with solid profitability for the full year as well. And just remember that pricing is always a function of the mix overall as well. And with respect to your questions around PC, again, as I mentioned, the PC customers have been impacted by Their own semiconductor shortages and their supply chain constraints, their end demand, their end user demand is very strong. In fact, They have unfulfilled backlog generally among these customers, which is quite extensive.

Speaker 2

And you know that even in the PC industry, while prices have gone up, if the customers are able to maintain a strong backlog, that speaks to the end strong demand. It really is all driven by work from home, learn from home, the demand acceleration that has taken place through the Pandemic will continue to support healthy environment for PC in calendar year 2022 as well. Of course, in 2020 2021, PC has gone through a double digit unit growth on a calendar year basis. We expect that to moderate in calendar year 2022 to perhaps from flat to low single digit year over year growth in terms of PC units sold, yet it will be a healthy market. And again, driven by the trends such as with the economies opening, businesses opening, Workers coming back, that drives a greater mix of enterprise PCs, commercial PCs.

Speaker 2

So while some of the consumer PC Such as Chromebooks, maybe compared to last year, maybe less in demand today, but the commercial PC demand Is getting stronger as well. So overall, PC continues to be a healthy market and we work closely with our customers. And today, they are really constrained By their supply chain shortages and that's what is adjusting their purchases. And as I said before, we believe this is going to be short lived And we look forward to continuing to support our customers with our products. And as we highlighted, our new technologies, new products, 1 alpha transitions, PC customers are qualifying them fast and we are focused on delivering those in calendar year 2022 as well as fiscal year 2022 timeframe.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking the question. I was hoping you could provide a little bit more context around your fiscal 2022 CapEx guidance of $11,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 If you can kind of speak to WFE within that number for fiscal 2022 and then differentiate between DRAM and NAND, That would be super helpful. And then just remind us what kind of bit supply growth are you expecting purely from transitions in both DRAM and NAND as you think about calendar 2022. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. So maybe as I I'll go through the CapEx for you. So As Sanjay mentioned and as I reiterated, we expect CapEx to be in the $11,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 range. We were roughly a little less than $10,000,000,000 $9,700,000,000 in fiscal 2021. If you look at it by the elements of CapEx, We are going to invest more in pilot enablement this year.

Speaker 3

Last year was a relatively low year for us in terms of pilot enablement. So that's going to be a reasonable step up in our CapEx spending. We feel CapEx Equipment in DRAM will be down year over year. We think we made a good investment in fiscal 2021 and we don't need to invest as much in fiscal 2022, so that will be down. NAND will actually step up pretty meaningfully in fiscal 2022 versus 2021.

Speaker 3

If you remember, we took CapEx way down in fiscal 2020, boosted up a little bit in 2021. Now we're up to kind of a full investment level in 2022 to support 176 layer. And that was caused because of this transition from floating gate to replacement gate when we made kind of a pause in terms of our CapEx investment to get the first line out at relatively minimal levels. Back end, we should be up a bit in back end spend, as we Continue to make investments on the back end to put that cost structure into better places. I intimated before, we've been making investments to improve our cost structure there.

Speaker 3

Clean room will be down a little bit modestly. And of course, we have EUV spending that also will impact our CapEx in fiscal 2022 as well. One other thing just to remind you, so we will be kind of like 60% of our CapEx kind of weighted to the first half, Probably 40% to the second half. So this was similar to what we saw in fiscal 2021, we're likely to see in fiscal 2022, Which is kind of our has been our typical pattern over the last couple of years.

Speaker 8

And Dave, the transitions, you guys talked about calendar 2022, bits growing mid to high teens on the DRAM side and approximately 30% of the NAND side in line with industry. What portion of that growth are you guys expecting purely from transitions to 1 Alpha and 177.

Speaker 3

Sorry, I didn't mean to forget that again. Yes, so it's all from no transitions. We're not adding wafers. We don't see, for For the foreseeable future adding wafers in either DRAM or NAND. In the next few years, we might be adding wafers in DRAM as Sanjay mentioned.

Speaker 3

But NAND, we think we can continue with no transitions to support the growth.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers of Wells Fargo. Your question please. Yes.

Speaker 9

Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about a little bit more about the end demand dynamics, particularly around the data center. I'm curious as we move forward, How are you thinking about the bit demand profile of the data center and the server market? And what are you seeing as far as kind of the progression of Kind of the progression of memory to compute ratio as we move forward to next generation CPUs. I'm just curious how you're rolling toward the expectations over the next year And that growth profile from a bit perspective.

Speaker 2

Within the data center, both for DRAM and NAND, demand Trends would be strong. In fact, data center today has become the largest market for DRAM and NAND And we'll continue to grow faster than the average of the industry, both for NAND and DRAM in the foreseeable future as well. So it's really being driven by the trend of AI driving greater need for Memory in addressing data intensive workloads. The BOM is going from about the memory and storage Part of the BOM in the servers in data centers is going from about 30% few years ago to around 40% now and going to 50% in few years' timeframe as well. And new architectures, new processors Our enabling more cores and more cores means more memory attached per core.

Speaker 2

Therefore, greater gigabytes per server for DRAM as well as for NAND. DDR5 It is a transition that will be occurring over the course of next couple of years as well as new CPUs get launched into production And DDR5 is a higher bandwidth solution. It of course enables more value, higher performance in the applications. So that adoption will be going on. And over the course of the years, of course, CXL and HBM, these ultra bandwidth solutions, These will also be continuing to grow in the data center space.

Speaker 2

So average content Per server for both DRAM and SSD, we'll also be growing over 20% on a CAGR basis in each of these applications. So strong opportunity ahead and Micron is very well placed with respect to our own product portfolio In terms of SSDs displacing HDDs, in terms of us providing higher density memory modules for server and data center applications. So as cloud gets bigger, the data center market gets bigger for us And we are very well positioned and this is an area we are focused on and continue to focus on expanding our product portfolio, Clearly on the side of the data center SSDs. So we look at this as a strong growth opportunity for the industry as well as for Micron. The value that memory and storage solutions providing in this space is really critical for the services that our cloud customers are providing and just keep in mind that enterprise as well, while it grows at a lower rate Compared to the cloud, we are seeing a resurgence in enterprise applications as well driving for overall healthy demand trends in data center in calendar year 2022, fiscal year 2022 as well as beyond.

Speaker 9

Yes. And then as a quick follow-up, Dave, I'm just curious as you start to this last quarter implement some share repurchases, how do you think about The liquidity on the balance sheet are managing the company from a cash on hand perspective versus continuing to lean more in on share repurchases. How much cash do you need operationally to comfortably run the company?

Speaker 3

So we roughly are Holding about mid-30s as a percent of revenue in terms of liquidity, but $2,500,000,000 of that liquidity is our unused revolver. So Cash is obviously less than that. We obviously have more liquidity than we need, which of course is and a good opportunity as it relates to the buyback. As I mentioned, we're also going to receive $900,000,000 from the sale of our Lehigh fab that also can be utilized for returns to shareholders. And we're expecting healthy free cash flow in fiscal 2022 as well.

Speaker 3

And so We'll be able to leverage that. We've committed to return at least 50% of it in the form of dividend and buyback, mostly buyback. And we could obviously Go higher than that. Our authorized plan, we still have $6,000,000,000 left in our authorized plan for repurchases. And if we see the stock be weak, which of course is how we viewed it in the Q4, we'll be aggressive about buying back stock.

Speaker 9

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. I wonder if you could address, with transitions going on in both DRAM and NAND to 1 alpha and RG2. Are Are there any issues that that creates from a mix standpoint in terms of it seems like there's quite a bit of demand for the older products, where are you in terms of getting qualified in the newer products, just how is that affecting you guys?

Speaker 2

Actually, we are doing very well with respect to ramping up these new nodes in production. Right on our plan, in fact, in terms of yields ahead of our plans, I highlighted that the yields in these 1 100 and 76 layer NAND as well as 1 Alpha DRAM have ramped 20% to 30% faster than our prior 1z generation node and the prior FG node, the last FG node. So and customer qualifications actually are going very well with these nodes as well. As I mentioned earlier, that we are already shipping Arvon Alpha in the PC space as well as broadening its shipments to other parts of the markets as well. In fact, customers are working closely with us in qualifying these products.

Speaker 2

1 of our 176 layered NAND based mobile product went from just introduction to 1,000,000 unit shipments in a record time, fastest ramp in the history of the company. So overall, these nodes in production, as well as in terms of deployment in the marketplace are doing very well for us. And of course, this is all baked into our guidance that we have provided in terms of our revenue as well as our cost expectations.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Yes. Thanks guys. Thanks for letting me ask questions. Congratulations on the solid execution. Sanjay, you're sort of characterizing the current environment As relatively short lived, are we supposed to read into that, that as we go into the February quarter, your business might normally kind of buck normal seasonal headwinds.

Speaker 11

And I guess importantly, upturns to date, this memory cycle has been very different than prior memory cycles. Typically, you had sort of 8 quarters of unabated ASP growth and margin expansion. We're kind of At least plateauing here 3 quarters into it. What's different about this cycle? And I guess what makes you confident this is just a pause and not something more nefarious?

Speaker 2

So with respect to the comment on the short lived, just to be clear, what I was mentioning was that with respect to PC part of the market where our customers Some of our customers in the PC market have experienced semiconductor shortages impacting their decisions on purchases of memory. That's what I was mentioning short lived because their end user demand on PCs is still very strong and lot of unmet demand that actually stretches the demand over time and makes the demand longer stronger for longer. But my comment regarding short lived and addressing it in the next few months was related to the PC part of the market. And outside of that, in other markets, as we discussed earlier, we see strong demand trends, strong end user demand trends. And of course, the supply chain shortages that are being experienced in PC are also being experienced in other parts of our markets as well by our customers, but of course different customers are handling them in overall different fashion.

Speaker 2

But the Underlying demand trends driven by AI and 5 gs from data center to the intelligent edge to the user devices Are strong. They are secular in nature. COVID further accelerated it. Semiconductor supply chain shortages Are only stretching that demand out as because some of the demand gets pushed out. So as I said, making those demand growth drivers actually stronger for longer as well.

Speaker 2

So you can call it pent up demand, but that's what I'm referring to. So on the demand side, things are here Overall, strong. On the supply chain aspects, of course, this is something that You know that the lead time in the semiconductors is long and this will take several quarters to continue to improve. Part of the semiconductor supply chain have already seen improvements. Our expectation is that these will continue to improve as well over the course of the coming quarters.

Speaker 2

And also keep in mind that our industry, the memory industry, Over the course of last couple of years has tapped into the inventory to shift beyond the supply growth. And this is a phenomenon that has occurred across the industry. Certainly, you have seen that how Micron has brought Its inventory to the leanest level in many years, in fact, below our target inventory levels. So this is something that is common to all suppliers in the memory industry. And as we look ahead, The supply growth will not only have to meet the customer requirements, but it will also have to replenish The inventory that has been taken to such low levels, inventory has to be replenished in order to make sure that we are able to service our customers and meet their demand requirements, which from time to time change.

Speaker 2

So these are all factors as well, very lean levels of Inventory by the suppliers as well as need to replenish that inventory will drive for a healthy demand supply balance in calendar year 2022 timeframe as well. So yes, some of this, in terms of our own supply chain shortages And some that are being experienced by our customers, we expect to be addressed over the course of time and some of these shortages On the semiconductor ecosystem may take through 2022 timeframe, by the end of 2022 maybe some of them will be leaked. However, we expect them to continue to be improving through the course of time all the way through calendar year 2022. But the demand dynamics of the underlying strong drivers and the supply dynamics that I discussed, including the prudent CapEx investments that have gone on in the industry and the lean supply, All of this will lead to healthy supply demand environment in the industry. So it's really the combination of the demand drivers And their suppliers supply capabilities and shipment capabilities that combination, I think really sets us up well as an industry for revenue growth and strong profitability in 2022.

Speaker 2

And of course, we have Projected based on our expectations that we will have record revenue in fiscal year 2022 and solid profitability as well.

Speaker 11

Sanjay, those inventory comments were very helpful. I'm just kind of curious as a quick follow on, your guidance for bits to be down in the November quarter, How much is that a conscious decision by you to hold bits off the market to help maybe cushion pricing? And how much of that is just be driven By there's no demand for those bits and that's why bits is down.

Speaker 2

Well, again, I think keep in mind that our inventory is Very lean. It is at the leanest level and below our target levels and that is impacting some of our ability to meet the demand as well. And overall, our projection of bits with respect to FQ1 It's really a function of our own supply chain capabilities in terms of where our inventory is and what we can ship at this point to the customers, certainly impacted by some of the component shortages, non memory components shortages that we Seeing in the marketplace as well and our assessment of overall demand. And the main thing there really is around the PC where some of the demand is impacted. But overall, when you look at our guidance for FQ1, which takes into account any aspects of seasonality Yes, well.

Speaker 2

But the guidance for FQ1 at its midpoint is about 32%, 33% higher than the same quarter last year. So, our inventory capability is also Overall impacting some of the ability for our customers in terms of what we can ship.

Speaker 11

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri of UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Thanks a lot. Appreciate that. Dave, I guess I had a question on gross margin. I wanted to go back to a question asked earlier. It's down only 100 basis points on your guidance, sounds like an 8% down revenue quarter.

Speaker 4

And it sounds like bits are only down modestly in both DRAM and NAND. So It sounds like the delta is probably pricing, I would think more on the DRAM side. And then somebody asked you about costs and you said, well, costs aren't coming down very much. So I guess I'm trying to figure out how gross margin is so good. Is this going back to some of the mix comments that you made last quarter?

Speaker 4

It seems like a more sustainable trend that maybe people are missing. So I'm wondering if you can kind of, flip that for us. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure, Tim. Yes, so cost declines are going to be relatively muted, Remember that. There will be some mix changes that might impact gross margins to bring it down somewhere within the range that we gave. Obviously, the rest is a function of pricing, And you have to infer what you can out of pricing. Obviously, if mix is the predominant factor in driving gross margins, Pricing and cost will not be major factors in driving gross margins.

Speaker 3

Maybe that's the best way to say it.

Speaker 4

Got it. Okay. And then I guess just last thing. So just on the cost curve, So you reached, you said you reached production crossover on 176 and on 1 Alpha and 1Z. So How much like what's the lag effect in terms of when that really starts to bend the cost curve in a favorable direction given that you've hit production crossover on those Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Well, to be clear, 1 Alpha and 1Z, we've hit crossover, 136, we hit at the end of the year. They're already, by the way, benefiting us from a cost perspective. It's hard to see it, maybe as much just because we're getting a little bit impacted obviously on the back end, Which is impacting the cost declines. But next year, we do anticipate that both of them will drive good cost reductions for us on the front end side.

Speaker 3

So they will be good nodes for us in terms of cost structure. And I think we'll see that from a front end perspective every quarter. Again, I think the 1st couple of quarters, it may not be as noticeable in our cost per bit calculations because of this more of a headwind on the back end side of the cost structure. But after we get behind that, I think you'll see that show up on the cost per bit basis as well. The only other factor will obviously be mix as well and we're going to drive like heck to get Our mix to be more to be a richer mix of higher value products and which is always our goal and of course with higher value products you get Higher cost, but higher profitability, higher gross margin.

Speaker 3

So, that's a good strategy, but that also kind of distorts the picture and will distort the picture over the course of the year as well.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Awesome. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Micron Technology Q4 2021
00:00 / 00:00