American Tower Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 27, 2022

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Tower First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Adam Smith, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining American Tower's Q1 2022 earnings conference call. We have posted a presentation, which we will refer to throughout our prepared remarks under the Investor Relations tab of our website, www.americatower.com. On this morning's call, Tom Bartlett, our President and CEO, After these comments, we will open up the call for your questions. Before we begin, I'll remind you that our comments will contain forward looking Our expectations regarding the impacts of COVID-nineteen and any other statements regarding matters that are not historical facts. You should be aware that certain factors may affect us in the future and could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Such factors include the risk factors set forth in this morning's earnings press release, those set forth in our Form 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2021 and in other filings we make with the SEC. We urge you to consider these factors and remind you that we undertake no obligation to update

Speaker 2

Thanks, Adam, and thank you everyone for joining our call this morning. In line with our traditional Q1 practice, my comments on this This call will primarily focus on our core U. S. And Canadian tower business, which together with our U. S.

Speaker 2

Based data center segment made up We are pleased to report that we are pleased to report that we are pleased to report that we are pleased to report that we are pleased to report that we are pleased to report that we are pleased to report that In the Q1, growth in our foundational U. S. And Canadian business continues to be propelled by the rapid acceleration in mobile data consumption that we've seen over the last decade plus. Back in 2017, the average smartphone in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Was consuming roughly 6 Gigabytes of data per month. And today, in the early stages of 5 gs uptake by consumers, that number has grown by a staggering 2.40 Percent to over 20 gigabytes on a monthly basis. As both 5 gs handsets and coverage become increasingly pervasive, 54 gigabytes by 2027. To meet this expected demand, carriers are aggressively deploying mid band spectrum density to meet consumer demand for enhanced network performance. Early evidence in the 5 gs cycle suggests this will continue to be the case.

Speaker 2

In fact, in 2021, we saw carriers increase aggregate network CapEx to approximately $34,000,000,000 Up from the roughly $30,000,000,000 annually we saw during the 4 gs cycle. An independent industry report suggests that this number should continue in the $35,000,000,000 range on average going forward. Further, as we've seen with prior network technology deployments, We expect a prolonged 5 gs investment cycle that will extend over the next decade. Today, carriers are in the earlier stages of upgrading sites With new equipment to provide broad, contiguous 5 gs coverage across their respective subscriber bases And given the propagation characteristics of mid band spectrum and ever increasing mobile data consumption paired with incremental low latency requirements arising from 5 gs enabled use cases, we would expect an extended period of investment aimed at delivering greater cell site density and stronger performance across networks for many years to come. Importantly, It is clear that macro towers will continue to be crucial infrastructure for the long runway of carrier network investments that lie ahead.

Speaker 2

Macro sites have historically been the most cost effective means for carriers to provide broad based network coverage to the vast majority of the U. S. Populace And evidence suggests that remains unchanged in a 5 gs world. To support this point, over the last 5 years, Our backlog of contractually guaranteed revenues in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Is more than doubled on a per site basis. This speaks not only to our team's capacity to secure long term profitable cash flow growth from our more than 43,000 distributed sites, But also to the long term value our tenants place on our macro tower assets as a critical component of their network deployment strategy for 5 gs and beyond. These trends along with the guaranteed growth secured through our comprehensive MLAs Support our expectation for strong growth on our tower assets, both in the near and longer term. As we previously communicated, growth from co locations and amendments is expected to ramp in the back half of the year With the expectation that we'll exit 2022 on a high point, with co location and amendment contributions accelerating And the impacts of the Sprint churn beginning to come off their peaks, we're well positioned to execute on a return to strong Mid single digit organic tenant billings growth in 2023 beyond. On the operational front, our U.

Speaker 2

S. Teams remain focused on driving efficiencies throughout It allow us to quickly scale up to meet customer needs and maximize the flow through of top line growth to the bottom line. Over the last few years, we progressed on process and IT initiatives designed to deliver best in class cycle times and providing efficiency benefits for our tenants. In addition, a focus on cost controls has driven cash SG and A as a percent of Property revenue in this segment to well below 4% on a consistent basis, a trend we expect to continue in 2022 and beyond. As a result, we've been able to continue extending on the significant operating leverage inherent to the Tower business model.

Speaker 2

At the midpoint of our 2022 outlook, we expect an operating profit margin of 78.8 percent, representing a 370 basis point in this segment over the last 5 years, even while absorbing the significant impacts of Sprint churn more recently. This strong conversion of top line growth to profit margin combined with the low capital intensity of just over 1% Physicians our U. S. And Canadian business to continue its decades long track record of delivering strong free cash flow growth in 2022 and beyond. With that, I'd like to shift gears for a moment to our data center segment, which we expect to benefit from many of the same long term technological trends that are driving attractive growth CoreSite team delivered a very strong quarter of new and expansion sales as these interconnection rich network and cloud dense data center campuses Continue to attract strong demand from enterprises, the cloud, the network and IT service providers in key U.

Speaker 2

S. Markets. Looking forward, we expect to continue to see accelerating hybrid IT and multi cloud deployments drive increasing demand for our highly interconnected portfolio, which should result in opportunities to selectively deploy capital toward high yield development projects. Additionally, as the 5 gs revolution begins to unlock new capabilities, we're beginning to see incremental deployments Resulting from ARVR, gaming, artificial intelligence, machine learning and other next generation use cases, which require lower latency. We would only expect this trend to accelerate and drive more demand for our data center campuses over the coming years, while pushing storage and compute requirements further out to the network edge.

Speaker 2

And when we combine our differentiated data center portfolio, CSP and network operator relationships With our distributed U. S. Macro tower portfolio and longstanding MNO partnerships, we believe we have a significantly enhanced option to create value as the edge evolves over the coming years. In summary, we're more excited than ever for the opportunity to extend on our long track record of Strong profitable growth in the U. S.

Speaker 2

As the 5 gs environment continues to take shape, we believe we're uniquely positioned to drive continued long Finally, I'd like to acknowledge the horrific events unfolding in Ukraine today. It's hard for any of us to comprehend the suffering of those affected by this humanitarian crisis. And while we do not have operations or employees in Ukraine, our thoughts and prayers go out to all those we have lost And to all those who continue to be subjected to this crisis, we, like many global organizations, are focused on finding ways to help the millions of people who are suffering, both within the country and those who are now refugees elsewhere. And we will look to join with others to contribute to the relief efforts underway. With that, let me hand the call over to Rod to discuss our Q1 results and updated 2022 outlook.

Speaker 2

Rod?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom, and thanks everyone for joining today's call. As you saw in today's press release, we're off to a great start in 2022, delivering another quarter of strong Performance across our global business. Before getting into the details of our Q1 results and revised outlook, I want to touch on a few highlights from the quarter. First, demand for our towers continues to be strong throughout our global footprint, evidenced by the sequential acceleration of organic tenant billings growth across each of our reported segments. Additionally, organic leasing activity was complemented with nearly 450 newly constructed sites in Q1, our 11th quarter of over 1,000 new builds in the last 3 years, a milestone that was only achieved once prior to 2019.

Speaker 3

2nd, growth from our recently acquired premier assets, Telsius and CoreSite is at the high end of our initial expectations. As a result, we are modestly raising guidance for Europe organic tenant billings growth and the midpoint of our data center segment revenues. Additionally, in Europe, we recently signed an agreement with 1 and 1 in Germany, Establishing a leasing framework to support their network rollout, which we expect to be another solid catalyst for growth in an already strong leasing market. We believe this further speaks to the quality and strategic positioning of our acquired Celsius assets, the opportune timing of the transaction and our optimism for the future. And finally, we continue to leverage the capital markets to support our investment grade balance sheet And we're able to issue $1,300,000,000 in senior unsecured notes on attractive terms right after the end of the first quarter, with proceeds used to term out a portion of our floating rate debt.

Speaker 3

Looking ahead and as it relates to our CoreSite financing plan, We continue to explore options that are aimed at maximizing shareholder value, while supporting our investment grade credit ratings. Consistent with our prior outlook, we are targeting to finance the $10,000,000,000 plus purchase price roughly equally between debt and equity. The latter potentially being satisfied through issuances of common equity, mandatory preferred equity or other convertible instruments or private capital or a well balanced combination. With that, please turn to Slide 6 and I'll review our property revenue and organic tenant billings growth for the quarter. As you can see, our Q1 consolidated property revenue of $2,600,000,000 grew by 22% Or over 23% on an FX neutral basis over the prior year period, which included a contribution of approximately 17% in growth From Telsius and CoreSite.

Speaker 3

In the U. S. And Canada, property revenue grew under 1% due to the impacts of Sprint churn, while international growth stood at roughly 32% or nearly 35%, excluding the impacts of currency fluctuations. Additionally, our newly expanded U. S.

Speaker 3

Data center business contributed over $180,000,000 of growth in the quarter. These growth rates across our property segments continue to reflect the essential nature of digital services and our communications real estate throughout our served markets. Moving to the right side of the slide, you'll see our organic tenant billings growth for the quarter with consolidated growth standing at 3%. In the United States and Canada, while growth was 0.6%, we saw an acceleration of gross organic new business on a dollar basis, Posting our highest quarter since Q1 of 2020, resulting in a 3.3% contribution to growth. Given the mechanics of our MLAs and the timing of certain use fees in 2021, we will see a decline in gross organic new business in the Escalators were 3.5%, which is also impacted by certain timing mechanics within our MLAs.

Speaker 3

Though for the full year, we expect latest to come in right around 3%, consistent with historical trends. This growth was largely offset by the impacts of Sprint churn. On the international side, growth was 7.4% and we saw improvements across each of our reported segments. Starting with Latin America, Growth came in at roughly 8.7%. This includes approximately 8.5% from escalations, which represents an acceleration of 300 basis points as compared to Q4 2021.

Speaker 3

Additionally, relatively consistent growth organic leasing trends were largely In Africa, we generated organic tenant billings growth of 8%, which includes 7% in gross organic new business contributions, our 2nd highest quarter on record. This strong new leasing activity was complemented by the construction of over 600 sites in the quarter, as we see 4 gs coverage and densification initiatives Continue to drive strong top line growth and returns across the region. We have now constructed over 3,800 sites in Africa Since the start of 2020, around the time we closed the Eaton Tower transaction, which meaningfully augmented our scale And enhanced existing M and O relationships in the region. As a point of reference, prior to the Eaton transaction, we had constructed less than 2,200 sites in the preceding 9 years of operations in Africa combined. Turning to Europe, We saw growth of 18.8 percent, reflecting pronounced contributions from the TELSIUS portfolio, which was not in our Q1 2021 base.

Speaker 3

Absent Telseyus, our legacy European business grew over 6%, an expansion of 300 basis points as compared to our Q1 2021 growth Great. As we look to the back half of twenty twenty two, where we'll have more comparable year over year results with TELSIUS included, We expect to see strong organic tenant billings growth in the mid-seven percent range, driven by accelerating 5 gs deployments and continuing investments in 4 gs. In APAC, we saw growth of 2.1%, a continuation of the improvements we have seen over the past several quarters, As churn further moderates in the India market. In fact, churn is now down to the mid 6% range, the lowest we've seen in nearly Turning to slide 7, our first quarter adjusted EBITDA grew approximately 13% or nearly 14% on an FX neutral basis to $1,600,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA margin was 61%, down over 5 percentage points over the prior year, Driven by the lower margin profile of newly acquired assets, the conversion impacts of commenced Sprint churn along with the higher pass revenue resulting from rising fuel costs. Moving to the right side of the slide, attributable AFFO and attributable AFFO per share grew by roughly 6% and nearly 4% respectively.

Speaker 3

Growth was meaningfully impacted by the timing of and maintenance CapEx in 2021, which was heavily back end weighted. The contributions of these two line items provided a negative year over year growth headwind of approximately 5% on AFFO in the quarter. Let's now turn to our revised full year outlook, where I'll start by reviewing a few of the key high level drivers. 1st, Due to higher pass through revenue associated with rising fuel costs, strong underlying trends in the business and modest FX improvements, methodology for projecting FX across our regions. Taking the more conservative of the trailing 30 day spot rate averages and an aggregation of bank estimates.

Speaker 3

When applying current spot rates, we would actually see an improvement beyond these revised assumptions, Although we believe it's prudent to continue with our standard approach. 2nd, through solid conversion of our top line upside, the carry forward of some cost Benefits and strong services performance in Q1, we are raising our outlook for adjusted EBITDA by $55,000,000 At an attributable AFFO per share level, we are raising our guide at the midpoint to $9.72 an increase of $0.02 Finally, as I mentioned earlier, we are maintaining our prior guidance assumptions around the equity financing for CoreSite. With that, let's move into the details of our revised full year expectations. As you can see on Slide 8, $7,000,000 in core property revenue outperformance along with another $2,000,000 in FX benefits. Moving to Slide 9, you'll see our revised organic tenant billings growth expectations for 2022.

Speaker 3

With the leasing environment remaining U. S. And Canada and on a total consolidated basis, we are modestly raising our expectations for Africa, driven by stronger new business in Europe mainly due to higher CPI driven escalation contributions. As such, we now expect organic growth of greater than 6% and greater than 9% in Africa and Europe respectively. Moving to Slide 10, and as noted earlier, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA outlook by $55,000,000 and now year over year growth of roughly 10.5%.

Speaker 3

These revised expectations include $26,000,000 from cash, gross margin outperformance, driven by the increase in our revenue guidance and some services margin expansion, partially offset by higher pass through expenses. We also now expect an additional $19,000,000 in net straight line and another $10,000,000 associated with revised FX assumptions. Turning to Slide 11. We are raising our expectations for AFFO attributable to common stockholders by $10,000,000 at the midpoint. As the benefits from the operational and FX upsides I just mentioned are being partially offset by higher interest expenses, The result of an elevated rate curve since our last call.

Speaker 3

This translates to an increase of $0.02 on a per share basis, moving the midpoint to $9.72 As I mentioned earlier and consistent with our initial outlook, Our AFFO guidance includes an assumption for the CoreSite equity financing, which for modeling purposes assumes a common equity issuance by mid year. However, we continue to evaluate several potential sources, including common equity, mandatory convertible preferred equity and other convertible instruments And also Private Capital Partnerships, where discussions continue to progress as a result of strong interest from leading private for a minority stake in our U. S. Data center business. That said, we remain flexible in our approach With the final mix ultimately depending upon what course offers the most attractive cost of capital, terms and operational flexibility.

Speaker 3

Finally, with respect to the balance sheet management, following our recent senior unsecured note issuance, which I highlighted earlier and pro form a for Our equity financing, we will have termed out a significant balance of our floating rate debt and would expect to bring our net leverage to the high five times range with a clear path to returning to our target range of 3 to 5 times over the next couple of years. Moving on to Slide 12, let's review our capital deployment expectations for 2022, which are consistent with our prior outlook and reflect our continued focus on strong sustainable AFFO per share growth. As always, distributing capital to our common shareholders remains our top priority And we continue to expect to allocate subject to Board approval approximately $2,800,000,000 towards our dividend in 2022. On a per share basis, this equates to approximately 12.5% in year over year growth, consistent with our double digit target. On the CapEx front, we are reiterating our prior outlook midpoints across all categories.

Speaker 3

This plan supports our Roughly $300,000,000 towards our data center business, dollars 270,000,000 of which is tied to development projects. We will continue to prioritize our development opportunities across our global footprint given its strong return profile and our ability to largely fund these initiatives through locally generated cash flows. In fact, of the nearly 14.50 sites we constructed in Q1, We saw an average Day 1 NOI yield of 14% at the high end of the double digit initial return rates we've seen through our build program historically. Looking ahead, our development pipeline remains strong with opportunities afforded by our scaled market which continue to drive strong demand across the portfolio. Finally, on Slide 13 and in summary, Q1 was a fantastic start to the year with organic tenant billings growth accelerating sequentially across each of our reported segments As 5 gs deployments, 4 gs densification initiatives and the benefits of our comprehensive MLA agreements drive strong organic new leasing including finalizing our CoreSite financing through the rest of the year as we aim to deliver compelling total returns to our stockholders.

Speaker 3

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question will come from the line of Matt Niknam from Deutsche Bank. Go ahead please.

Speaker 4

Hey guys, thank you for taking the question. Just 2 if I could. First on Europe, so we've heard a lot of press around larger Carrier portfolios coming to market there. I'm wondering how you think about the prospects of scaling up in Europe further through the lens of either full ownership versus Partnering with a financial sponsor as you've done in the past and then already in light of leverage sitting at 6.4 turns Right now. And then secondly on CoreSite, obviously this was the 1st full quarter with CoreSite under your belt.

Speaker 4

I'm wondering if there are any positive or negative surprises you can share. And then Rod, I think you alluded to maybe a little bit of an increased outlook for the data center business, if there's any color or additional detail you can give. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Hey, Matt, let me start off and Rod can add in as he sees. First of all, within Europe, we're So first of all, both Telsius as well as our CoreSite acquisition are hitting on all cylinders. They're both outperforming our Kind of right out of the gate. And so in Europe, we're very focused on really realizing the full With Telseyus, as Rod said, we just landed the transaction with 1 on 1. So our focus is really The final integration steps with TELSIUS and really leveraging that capability in the markets that we're in.

Speaker 2

So we're really pleased with the teams there and the contracts there and the relationship with Telefonica. With regards to CoreSite, they had a record retail and scale quarter. And so we're really pleased with what we've seen there, we've got a terrific management team in place, a good balance between activity between the retail scale and hyperscale types of business, I've got our sights set on building out some of the existing infrastructure that we have available to us. So on both transactions, We couldn't be more pleased with the activity that we're seeing right out of the gate.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Matt. Thanks for joining us and thanks for the question. I'll add a couple of points on CoreSite. So we are seeing positive trends in CoreSite. You've heard us say it before, we continue to View the asset as a very unique high quality asset and we're seeing the quality of the asset come through early on here In the financials, so we did have a terrific end of the year last year in terms of new and expansion revenue Being added, we do see that accelerating into 2022, so that's really positive.

Speaker 3

That allowed us to increase the midpoint of the revenues By about $5,000,000 And we have seen the backlog for that metric kind of come up. We're sitting at about $19,000,000 backlog versus a year ago same period where it was around $9,000,000 So that's up about $10,000,000 And we across the major metrics here, we think the business is really strong. In terms of revenue growth, The range we look at is between 6% 8%. We're looking at the high end of that range, maybe even a touch above that range here. The escalators are in the range of 2% to 4% interconnection growth.

Speaker 3

Our target range is between 6% 8%, and again, we'll be at the high end of that range. We believe cash mark to market is in the range of 2.3%. We'll have to see exactly where that ends up. It always can be affected by Kind of unique renewals from certain customers, but the range there is about 2% to 3% on an ongoing basis. The Monthly recurring revenue per cabinet, we look at growth rates 4% to 6% range.

Speaker 3

Again, we're in the mid single digits for this year. So that is compelling. The churn rates are right where we expected them to be in the mid in the middle of the range. The range is 6% to 8%. So we're working on all cylinders with the business.

Speaker 3

I think it really demonstrates the quality of the assets. The fact that customers of this business really do Enjoy the interconnection nature and the cloud centric nature of these assets. And from a CapEx perspective, we put in about 2% of revenue And for growth CapEx, we've got about $300,000,000 going into the business this year really to build out additional capacity. Hopefully that gives you some color, Matt.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Eric Liptchow with Wells Fargo. Go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just wondering if you could comment a little bit on the 1 and relationship, the new MLA you signed, is that kind of driving a faster organic growth outlook in Europe Than you previously had anticipated. And then secondly, I just wanted to take your temperature on the potential to do Future data center M and A, obviously, CoreSite only in 8 markets. Are you seeing some opportunities out there, whether internationally or perhaps in secondary markets in the U.

Speaker 5

S. That might be interesting to further scale that platform. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Let me I'll take the first the second one, Rod, you can take the first one on 101. First of all, with regards to the data centers, we're really leveraging what We have acquired at the end of last year and we're very focused on further developing that business, Working very much on just the fundamentals of expanding sales, extending distribution, Developing the campuses, market expansion, leveraging the interconnection capabilities that they have. And then Secondly, looking at unlocking the opportunities at the Edge. And so I think what you'll we'll see in the CoreSite transactions, yes, there'll be further build out of Existing resources, there are expansions into up in Silicon Valley, we have a fairly sizable New asset that we're looking to build up there.

Speaker 2

And really just trying to again unlock the edge And work jointly with both of our customer sets on figuring out how we can play a meaningful role in that development. So the U. S. Is our first Project in terms of trying to work through all of these opportunities here, we remain really Excited about the opportunity there. The kinds of conversations that we're having with the various potential customers are really exciting for us.

Speaker 2

It's going to take a while for this to unfold, but that's really where our focus is. And so we don't see towers are our business. That's the reason that We did this transaction to begin with to further develop the revenue that we're going to be able to enjoy at the tower side. And so that's where our focus is going to be. And then a 101, Rod?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Tom, and thanks, Eric. So with 101, we are pleased that we have the agreement with 101. We're really looking forward to help them Build out their greenfield 5 gs network across Germany. So that really is very exciting.

Speaker 3

The deal that we struck really is a Framework around how the 2 parties will work together contractually. It also kind of lays out and gives 101 kind of that framework to access our sites. That's exciting. There are long term contracts kind of embedded in there. So we'll work through that.

Speaker 3

It's not really driving additional growth in our 2022 organic tenant billings yet, although we do think it's a very exciting development that will provide growth over the long term and maybe even pick up in the back Of this year a little bit. But maybe Eric, I'll hit a couple of points on the growth rates here in Europe. So you saw The announcement earlier in the presentation, we did have organic tenant billings growth in Europe in the high teens. A lot of that is driven by the TELSIUS assets, which is again a really high quality assets across Europe, particularly in Germany. We do expect that momentum to continue, at least in terms of the leasing activity.

Speaker 3

But the when you get out into the back half The year when you bring the Telsey as a base revenue into the equation, we expect organic tenant billings growth for Europe to moderate and drop down into the 7% range, Maybe between 7% 8%. So still very strong growth. If you exclude Celsius and you just look at Germany, I mean, just look Europe on a legacy business, that business for Q1 grew greater than 6% on an organic tenant billings growth basis. That compares to a year ago same period at only 3%, 3.5%. So we're seeing really good growth momentum in Europe on the OTP metric on the legacy business as well as being assisted with the high quality assets from TELSIUS.

Speaker 3

And we do think 101 will be a kind of a multiyear additional We go forward.

Operator

We'll go next to the line of Michael Rollins with Citi. Go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks and good morning. Just curious if you could talk a little bit more about the Domestic leasing environment, in terms of that multiyear visibility that you've previously been speaking to And how that visibility is evolving for the business?

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. Thanks for joining us. So I'll just remind you in terms of the long term guidance that we have out there, it was over a 7 year average really going out 2027, and we were looking at at least 4% growth over that time on average Reported and on a normalized basis, excluding the impacts, the negative impacts of Sprouts, it would be up around 5%. You know what that metric looked like in 2021 and now you see kind of where we're guiding in 2022.

Speaker 3

We'll hit an average of about 2% for those 2 years On a reported basis and if you exclude again normalized for the Sprint churn that would be up around 5%. And we're actually seeing that in Q1 In terms of our U. S. Organic growth, which came in at about 0.6% for the quarter, and that did have an impact from Sprint churn, that was pretty close to 4%. So that would have been up in the mid to upper 4s, if you normalize to the Sprint churn.

Speaker 3

So that's certainly where we Back to head, if you look at the 2023 to 2027 time period, we would look at reported organic tenant billings growth being greater than 5%, greater than or equal to 5 And on a normalized basis, around 6% greater than or 6%. So we do see that acceleration kind of in momentum. We think we're in for a nice Run here of really stable long term healthy growth in the U. S. Business once we work through the Sprint churn.

Speaker 3

And in these numbers, it's important to point out that 2 thirds of the not just the underlying revenue, but also the growth is already contracted in the MLAs that we have, the holistic MLAs. And it does include, the acceleration and the partnership we have with DISH in terms of that agreement where revenue begins this year, It accelerates through the year and then it will be there over the long term. So hopefully that gives you a little color, Michael, in terms of the U. S. Growth rates.

Operator

Our next question will come from David Barden with Bank of America. Go ahead please.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning everyone. This is Alex Waters on for Dave. Maybe just my first one here. Roddie, you hit on it in your prepared remarks, but could you elaborate a little bit more on the plans for the size and the timing of the CoreSite Equity raise, I think in the past you said it was 2Q and nice step into 3Q. And then how the plans evolved to Include Private Capital, though.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Alex. Thanks for the question. Thanks for joining us. So we're working through the financing We're very excited about the prospects and the different opportunities we have.

Speaker 3

As I said in your prepared remarks, we're looking at equity, An equity component, that's really the final piece of the entire CoreSite financing. We ended the quarter here at about 4.6 times leverage. Our target range is between 3 times and 5 times. And we do have a plan to delever over the next couple of years. So we expect by the end of the year to get into the mid to upper 5 times.

Speaker 3

So that's where the equity component comes We're looking at raising about $5,000,000,000 from an equity transaction. That's what's in our base model. In the outlook, Just to reiterate here, the base plan assumes that we're going to do a Common equity issuance for the $5,000,000,000 at roughly $2.35 a share. That's within our 2022 guidance For AFFO and AFFO per share growth. But with that said, we're also looking at other forms of equity.

Speaker 3

So complementing The common equity with some preferred convertible equity instruments, other kinds of convertible instruments and private capital. So we are Looking at private capital options, much of that has come from inbound inquiries that we've had when people heard that we were buying CoreSite. I there was a lot of excitement in the marketplace in terms of the high quality nature of those assets. So there was a lot of inbound Interest there, we also went out with some outbound inquiries and we've been working through a process. So the other thing I would just clarify here, Alex, I think I mixed up the numbers on the leverage.

Speaker 3

We're ending at 6.4%, and I think I may have said 4.6%. So again, we're getting back down into the mid The upper 5s by the end of the year. I think you made a comment in your question that we might be pushing the equity financing into Q3. I'm not sure that's correct. I mean, we're working through the process.

Speaker 3

There's a good Chance that we could have it wrapped up in Q2 like we initially said at the outset of the year.

Speaker 2

And I guess Rod, I would just add, we chose not to Change the outlook assumptions. So at the time when we issued that initial outlook, we had The equity at that $5,000,000,000 level at the price point level. And as I said, just for clarity, I just want to make sure that we just kept that the same Going forward and obviously we'll adjust that when Rod finally closes this whole transaction, which Again, we would expect in Q2.

Operator

We'll go next to the line of Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Hey, Rick.

Speaker 4

Good morning, Rick. Busy morning. Appreciate you guys being available. First question is, Down in Brazil, Oi looks like it's finally making it to the final positioning. Can you update us a little bit about how you see the Troy getting carved into the other three operators as far as what it means to that market and just what your exposure is?

Speaker 2

Sure. Rod, do you want to

Speaker 3

I can Yes, Rick. So your employee has kind of finished their process Of exiting the market and splitting their business up into the other 3 remaining carriers. So we do see that as a positive event, taking that Those leases and putting them with carriers that are financially secure and kind of in a healthy competition In that market, so we think that is certainly going to be productive. We do have A chunk of revenue from Oi. We have about 6.7, just about 7 years remaining on average on those leases, Rick, in terms of the revenue impacts to our business, it's less than 1% of our revenues globally That we have with Oi down in Brazil.

Speaker 3

Even though we have that nearly 7 years on average, That's an average, so there could be some leases that come up a little bit earlier than that. And we may see churn beginning as early as next year and kind of moving through the next few years. So we'll be working Through that process. But in general, we think it's a healthy thing for the industry there in Brazil. We've been working through kind of the process as Oi has For the last couple of years.

Speaker 3

So I think it's good to get that behind us and get it behind the wireless segment there in Brazil, so everyone can move forward.

Speaker 2

Yes. And Rick, I'd just reiterate that I think this is candidly a very positive event, putting these assets in the hands of Tim Claro and Vivo. And they're very focused on building out further 4 gs and 5 gs. So think this is a real positive for the market.

Operator

We'll move on to the line of Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc. Go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. I wanted to follow-up on Mike's question. Do you guys continue to expect to be at $150,000,000 in co location and amendments in U. S. In 2022.

Speaker 8

And then how should we think about the exit rate in terms of colocation amendments for modeling purposes for 2023, is that going to be a good run rate?

Operator

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, Brendan, thanks the question. Thanks for joining us. So we are targeting about $150,000,000 of contribution to organic tenant billings growth through colocation and amendment. The metric for the quarter was about $36,000,000 So that's an acceleration over the exit out of 2021, and it's higher than any quarter we had in 21. So we are seeing that acceleration in that gross leasing activity in the U.

Speaker 3

S. As I said in my prepared remarks, we will see A slight pullback in Q2 in that metric, really just around the mechanics of the way the MLAs work in the U. S. But when you get to Q3 and Q4, we'll be Of the Q1 total here. So we'll be exiting at a higher level going into next year.

Speaker 3

I don't want to talk about next year too specifically here And give guidance, but we are seeing an acceleration in that metric. We expected to see that and we are seeing that. It's all very constructive and kind of in line with our longer term organic tenant billings growth guidance for the U. S.

Operator

We'll move on to the line of John Aitken with RBC. Go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks very much. I noticed that the you talked about $120,000,000 of asset acquisitions, dollars 30,000,000 of which were towers. Can you Talk to us a little bit about what comprises the prices?

Speaker 3

Sure, Jonathan. I can give you that it's really just a variety of small acquisitions on the tower side. Many of them were in Europe. We do have An arrangement with a carrier in Europe where we consistently buy a number of sites throughout the throughout each quarter In Europe, we're also buying a few down in Latin America, 1s and 2s here in there. We Always have a pipeline in the U.

Speaker 3

S. Where we're rolling up a few efficiencies here and there. And then there's some payments that are related to The prior year deals that we acquired. So there's really not a ton going on there. I would think about it in terms of Europe And Latin America primarily.

Speaker 9

And just interested in the SunGard announced a bankruptcy Earlier in April, and I think CoreSite as a standalone company had kind of alluded to some Around the prepackaged bankruptcy, but now that we're kind of going through the next phase of that, I wondered what impacts you're seeing on your Data center business from that type of event?

Speaker 3

No, Jonathan, we're not expecting anything material from We don't see any real negatives, nothing meaningful to note. So We're committed and kind of confident in the growth rates that I outlined a little earlier in the call.

Operator

And our next question will be from Batya Levi with UBS. Go ahead, please.

Speaker 10

Thank you. In the U. S, you talk a little bit about the activity you're seeing from DISH? And fixed wireless is ramping faster than we had I know it's still very small and the carriers have a lot of capacity. But anecdotally, do you see any change in the carrier activity on the sites when usage is Significantly, once you get your thoughts on that.

Speaker 10

And then another question in terms of The cost to build, do you have a significant build program this year and development CapEx? Can you talk about your What you're seeing in terms of the cost versus your expectations and any delays? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Baji, On the continued build out in the U. S, I mean, yes, there I think the carriers have all said their Interest in continually building out fixed wireless, but that's not getting in the way in terms of their capital spend on really building out 5 gs. And so we would expect, Again, kind of the continued acceleration of that 5 gs build, really accelerating, as Raja said, kind of in the second half of the year, Spectrum being cleared and being able to be put in place, we're excited about the prospects for that 5 gs build. I don't

Speaker 6

think the carriers are going to let anything get in the

Speaker 2

way of that And get in the way of that opportunity going forward. And on the build side, I just want to say, this is Of the last 12 quarters, 11 of them have built over 1,000 new builds. And that's going to contribute Significantly to our overall growth rate in 2022 as it has in 2021, We've laid out a path of looking at north of 40,000 builds over the next several years and have visibility into contracts With all of our existing customers to do so. Rod mentioned the build that's going on in Africa. We see equally build going on in Europe, Clearly in India, as well as in Latin America.

Speaker 2

So we're really excited about the build program. We're looking at over 6,000 New builds in 2022. And as I mentioned, I'm hoping that, that will continue to accelerate going forward.

Speaker 3

And Batya, I'll give you a couple of specific numbers here. On the cost, you've mentioned the cost of the build, they're coming in at a little less than $100,000 on average, Maybe closer to $75,000 on average per site. And we are continuing to see, the targeted NOI being In the low to mid teens, so we're in the range of about 14% now, which is great. Regarding your question on We are seeing activity from DISH in the U. S.

Speaker 3

We did last year. As you know, that continues this year. We see it mostly Showing up on our financials through our services business. So we're continuing to have strong volume and activity in our services business. We're projecting In and around $225,000,000 to $230,000,000 in services revenue for this year.

Speaker 3

Last year, it was up to about 2 So there's a slight pullback there. But if you think about our services activity for the Q1 of 2022, it's almost 100% growth over that same Time period in last year. And certainly, the DISH Greenfield build is a big part of that. And if you rewind back 2020, our services business was driving less than $100,000,000 in revenue. So we've seen that step up in our service Which really highlights the level of activity that we're seeing in the U.

Speaker 3

S. And again DISH is part of that. We'll begin to see leasing revenue here from DISH and that will ramp at the in the back half of the year and we'll exit at a of course a much higher Level of leasing revenue from DISH than we entered the year and then that will ramp and continue for years to come.

Operator

We'll go now to the line of Phil Cusick with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi, guys. Thanks. A couple if I can. First, if you can if I can follow-up on the capital raise for CoreSite. If you were working on a large European deal, would that be material enough that it would be hard to raise Public equity in the meantime, or is that not something that's an issue?

Speaker 11

And then second, can you dig Your comments about the expected decline in gross organic new business in the second quarter before you said ramping up in the back half of the And is that alluding to the Verizon MLA expiration? It doesn't seem like that impacted the Q1 at all. Thanks very much.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Bill. Thanks for joining the call and thanks for the question. So in terms of the capital raise, I mean, I don't want to get into too much hypothetical. There are a lot of different deals over in Europe, a lot of different I don't want to guess in terms of the level of capital that potentially could be needed.

Speaker 3

I would tell you, our equities are really strong. We've got a lot of in the equity markets. If we wanted to go out and raise equity, we're very confident that we can do that for the right value Creative deal for our shareholders. So that's what I would say in terms of the potential For any other acquisitions and issuing equity. Certainly, we're continuing to be active and looking around.

Speaker 3

We like the transaction that we have in Europe. We like what we're seeing in the TELSIUS business. We think that was a high quality set of assets with really good contracts And we purchased it at the right time. So from a European perspective, we like exactly where we sit today, and we are focused on financing the CoreSite, The CoreSite opportunity as well. Jumping over to the deceleration from Q1 to Q2 and our OTBG contributions from co locations and amendments, it's dropping down from like the mid-30s for Q1 into the low-30s for Q2.

Speaker 3

It's not horizon driven, really just mechanics of the MLAs and where some use right fees kick in early in the year. And then we do see that ramping up and we expect it to be in the range of 40 plus each of the final two quarters in the year. So that's kind of the way to think about that ramp. There's nothing concerning about the step down in Q2. It's all just MLA mechanics, And we feel very good about the level of activity and the position of our U.

Speaker 3

S. Portfolio.

Speaker 2

Hey, Phil, let me just reiterate. As I've said all along, the

Operator

We have time for one final question. That will come from the line of Sami Badri with Credit Suisse. Go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi. Thank you very much for the question. First, I wanted to just get a better sense on how you think about the CoreSite business From a pricing and renewal perspective, I know you mentioned that business for retail colo and other parts also were very strong last quarter, but What is kind of the strategy at AMT? Are you guys looking to kind of just take a bigger share out of the market By lowering pricing a little bit and winning a bigger chunk or are you maintaining pricing discipline as Legacy CoreSite and seeing kind of the revisions and renewals as kind of as strong as what CoreSite was reporting before, They were taken out by you guys. Just trying to get a better idea on the strategy and the vision of CoreSite under AMT.

Speaker 2

Hey, let me just I can start and rock it in. We're very focused on pricing discipline, okay? I mean, the asset that they have and what the business is doing With its own fabric within, we think can support this high single digit, low double digit kind of growth rate going forward. And so The team is very focused on extending distribution into all its 3 major pieces, Really driving new and expansion sales, working on those renewals, developing the campus, some market expansion, leveraging interconnection. So really driving organic growth from existing customers and bring getting new business from high quality new ones and driving new logos within the business.

Speaker 2

No change at all in terms of the direction and the discipline that the team brings to the marketplace. We are Have increased some of the funding to be able to accelerate some of the build out, so that there's more opportunity for growth. But the underlying discipline in terms of how they've approached the business is what we acquired. And we're very

Operator

And with that, we'll turn the conference call back over to your host.

Speaker 1

Thanks everyone for joining today's call. Please feel free to reach out to me or the IR team with any further questions. Thanks again.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this conference is available for replay beginning today, April 20 7 at 11:30 am Eastern Daylight Time running through May 11, 2022 at midnight. During that time, to access the AT and T Executive Playback Service, Dial toll free 866-207-1041 internationally area code 402 9,700,847, and the access code is 7,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 I'll repeat those numbers. The toll free number is 866-207-1041. The international number is area code 4029700847 with the access code 7,000,000,000 543,388. That will conclude your conference call for today.

Operator

Thank you for your participation and for using AT and T Executive Teleconferencing. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
American Tower Q1 2022
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