Duke Energy Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 4, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Duke Energy restored power to 99% of customers within 72 hours after Hurricane Ian thanks to its grid hardening investments and a 20,000‐person mobilization.
  • The company reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.78 and raised full‐year 2022 adjusted earnings guidance to $5.20–5.30 (excluding commercial renewables).
  • Duke Energy’s Board approved the sale of its commercial renewables business after receiving attractive market indications, with proceeds to reduce holding‐company debt and fund the clean energy transition through 2027 without equity issuances.
  • For 2023, Duke Energy expects 5–7% EPS growth to a range of $5.55–5.75, supported by core utility performance, midyear interest expense savings, and a ramped up $300 million cost‐mitigation target.
  • Regulatory filings are underway—most notably North Carolina’s first performance‐based rate case and multi‐year plans in the Carolinas and Florida—while IRA tax credits valued at $1 billion are expected to lower customer costs.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Duke Energy Q3 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome. My name is Brika, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Duke Energy Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speakers' remarks, There will be a question and answer session.

Operator

On your telephone keypad. Thank you. Jack Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Brika, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's Q3 2022 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's discussion will include the use of non GAAP financial measures and forward looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward looking statements, and those factors are outlined herein and disclosed in Duke Energy's SEC filings.

Speaker 1

The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures along with a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures. So with that, let's turn the call over to Lynn.

Speaker 2

Jack, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I'd like to take a moment and recognize The work of our team in responding to Hurricane Ian, one of the most powerful and destructive storms in U. S. History. Duke Energy mobilized 20,000 people working day and night to restore power to over 2,000,000 customers across Florida and the Carolinas.

Speaker 2

And what's more impressive is the speed in which we did it, with 99% of our customers restored within 72 hours. This is an amazing accomplishment and a testament to our strong preparation, the tireless effort of our restoration teams and the value of our grid hardening investments. Moving to our financial results today. We announced adjusted earnings per share of $1.78 for the 3rd quarter. We continue to see strong volumes from the electric utilities, offset by lower contributions from commercial renewables due to fewer projects place in service compared to 2021.

Speaker 2

Turning to the commercial renewables business, we've completed the strategic review and our Board has authorized the sale of this business. I'll provide more context about this decision in a moment. But first, I'd like to address what this means for our 2020 earnings guidance. Beginning in the Q4, we will move commercial renewables to discontinued operations and remove it from guidance going forward. Bringing focus to our core regulated businesses, we are updating full year 2022 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $520,000,000 to $530,000,000 The $525,000,000 midpoint of this updated range represents our guidance midpoint of $5.45 less the $0.20 contribution we originally forecasted for commercial renewables.

Speaker 2

The regulated utilities remain on track for 2022 with strong operating results, offsetting rising financing costs, giving us confidence in achieving earnings within this tighter range. Turning to Slide 5. In August, we announced a strategic review of the commercial renewables business, which includes our utility scale renewables platform and a smaller distributed generation business. As part of this review, we've worked with advisors to evaluate the strategic fit of these businesses and to test the market on valuation. We've received indications of interest for the utility scale business at attractive valuations, and this process will continue through year end.

Speaker 2

We expect to announce a definitive transaction in Q1 2023 and close as early as mid year. We're preparing the sale process for the distributed generation business, which includes our AC Solar and expect this transaction will follow a similar timeline to closing. The majority of proceeds from both transactions will be used to reduce holding company debt. This will strengthen the balance sheet and allow us to fund our clean energy transition without common equity issuances through at least 2027. I'm very proud of our commercial team who has remained focused on maximizing the value of the portfolio, With this pending change in our business mix, I'd like to walk you through our earnings trajectory over the next few years.

Speaker 2

For 2023, we're introducing a guidance range of $5.55 to $5.75 with a midpoint of $5.65 This reflects 5% to 7% growth of the updated 2022 EPS midpoint of $5.25 It also includes a partial year benefit from lower interest expense after reducing HoldCo debt with sales proceeds. Turning to 2024 and beyond, we to grow 5% to 7% off the 5.65% midpoint of our 2023 guidance range through 2027. The 2023 guidance range reflects what we know today, including the present interest rate environment, inflation, supply chain constraints and an economic forecast that continues to support positive GDP growth in 2023. But the economic outlook remains uncertain and we'll continue to closely monitor trends. Consistent with past practices, we'll do all we can to control costs to match challenges in our business while maintaining excellent service to our customers.

Speaker 2

As a result, we've increased our 2023 cost mitigation target from $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 We expect about 75% of these savings to be sustainable over the long term. We will keep you apprised along the way and look forward to sharing our traditional guidance package on the year end earnings call in February. Brian will provide more on our 2023 earnings drivers, but I want to underscore the strength of our underlying core utility business. We operate premier regulated franchises in growing service territories with constructive regulatory jurisdictions and robust customer focused investment opportunities. They have always been the lifeblood of our company.

Speaker 2

And this portfolio transition will fully highlight the strong, predictable, transparent earnings and cash flows from our premier regulated utilities and strengthen our overall investor value proposition. Next, I'd like to take a few minutes to highlight some of the important strategic work underway throughout our jurisdictions. Moving to Slide 6. In October, we filed our 1st performance based regulation application under HB951. We filed with the North Carolina Utilities Commission, requesting a review of the significant investments we're making for our 1,500,000 Duke Energy Progress customers served in North Carolina.

Speaker 2

The rate increase would cover upgrades we've made to improve grid reliability and resiliency and to facilitate a clean, secure energy future. Our application contains a traditional base rate case based on historical investments and known immeasurable changes projected through April of 2023. Our request is mitigated by a reduction in annual operating costs of over $100,000,000 since our last rate case. In addition to historic investments, our application includes gradual customer rate step ups over the next 3 years to recover future investments we will make through the multi year rate plan. This consists of roughly $3,800,000,000 of capital projects that are projected to go into service by 2025, approximately 75% of which is related to transmission and distribution investments.

Speaker 2

Evidentiary hearings are expected to begin in the May 2023 timeframe. Consistent with past practice, we intend to implement temporary rates in June for the historic base case subject to refund. If approved, we expect year 1 revised rates to be effective by October 1, 2023. Turning to Slide 7. Our focus on providing customers with affordable, reliable and cleaner energy continues to advance across each of our jurisdictions.

Speaker 2

In North Carolina, carbon plan hearings concluded in late September Almost 3 weeks and we submitted our proposed order at the end of October. During the hearings, we presented strong testimony that confirms the need for our near term development activities. The NCUC will make a final decision on the carbon plan by the end of this year. We expect to file a Duke Energy Carolinas rate case with the NCUC in early 2023. In South Carolina, we filed a rate case for Duke Energy Progress in September as we continue to work on increasing system reliability and resiliency enhancing the customer experience.

Speaker 2

To ease the impact of these investments on customers, proposed rates would go into effect over 2 years, beginning in the first half of twenty twenty three. In Florida, the Public Service Commission approved our storm protection plan update in October. Over the next 10 years, we expect to deploy $7,000,000,000 in capital investments through this rider. Shifting to the Midwest and Indiana, we're updating our integrated resource plan. We've held the first of 3 public information sessions with stakeholders to share information about plans under consideration and we anticipate filing CPCNs for new generation resource needs with the commission beginning in early 2023.

Speaker 2

And in Ohio, we completed a hearing in October for our electric distribution rate case. We expect to receive a final order by the end of 2022 or early 2023. Moving to Slide 8, I'd like to update you on our ongoing review of the clean energy provisions under the IRA legislation. High energy costs are top of mind for our customers and the IRA's clean energy tax credits present an opportunity to help address those issues. We expect to qualify for a variety of PTCs and ITCs that will generate 1,000,000,000 of dollars in tax credits over the next decade.

Speaker 2

These tax credits will be returned to our customers, lowering our overall cost of service and providing for a more affordable energy transition. We will continue to evaluate the impact of the corporate minimum tax as new information and guidance from treasury becomes available. Because of the credits generated by our substantial clean energy infrastructure investments, we do not expect this to have a material impact on our cash flows. In closing, we're advancing our strategy across our jurisdictions, balancing the progress I'm confident in our long term earnings growth and ability to execute our strategy moving forward. As I look ahead, we're well positioned to deliver exceptional value to our customers, stakeholders and investors.

Speaker 2

And with that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a brief discussion on our quarterly results, highlighting a few of the key variances to the prior year. As shown on Slide 9, we had reported earnings per share of $1.81 compared to $1.79 last year. As Lynn shared, we are moving forward with the sale of our commercial renewables business and we'll move those results to discontinued operations in the Q4. For presentation purposes going forward, Our focus will be on the strong earnings profile of our core regulated operations, which delivered $1.78 in adjusted EPS in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 3

And on a year to date basis, our core operations generated earnings of $4.15 compared to $4.10 for 2021. Please see our non GAAP reconciliation included in the earnings release for more details. Within our core business segments, Electric Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.06 compared to the prior year, driven by higher retail volumes and lower O and M. Partially offsetting these items were higher depreciation costs on our growing investment base. We continue to be encouraged by the sustained retail load growth in the post COVID environment, and I will provide more on the volume trends in a moment.

Speaker 3

Shifting to Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, results were $0.01 higher than last year due to increases in riders and the North Carolina Piedmont rate case. And in the other segment, We were $0.07 lower primarily due to higher financing costs, timing of tax expense and lower returns on investments. Turning to Slide 10, I'll touch on electric volumes and economic trends. On a 12 month rolling average basis, Total retail volumes are up 1.7%, in line with our 2022 low growth forecast of 1.5% to 2%. In the Q3, higher year over year volumes were driven by residential customer growth of 1.7%.

Speaker 3

We continue to see strong and steady migration to our service territories and continued expansion in the commercial class, including higher data center usage. This was partially offset by lower industrial volumes, isolated to a few automotive customers experiencing supply chain constraints. We are closely monitoring how these factors and other potential economic dynamics are impacting our customers' usage, but we continue to expect 2022 volume growth to land within our 1.5% to 2% range. Our economic development achievements to attract jobs and capital investment to our service territories recently recognized by Site Selection Magazine, which named Duke Energy a top utility for economic development for the 17th consecutive year. We continue to accelerate this work into 2022.

Speaker 3

We partnered with our states to win record setting projects in North Carolina with semiconductor manufacturer Wolfspeed in South Carolina with BMW's entry into the EVs market and in Indiana with the Stellantis Samsung EV battery plant. These projects and others announced throughout 2022 involve capital investments exceeding $20,000,000,000 and will bring more than 24,000 jobs to our growing service territory. We'll begin to see top line growth from these business expansions as we progress through the 5 year plan. We break down the outlook for the Q4 on Slide 11. We are well positioned to achieve our updated EPS midpoint for 2022.

Speaker 3

Year to date, our core regulated business has generated earnings adjusted earnings of $4.15 We expect a solid finish to the year with continued strong performance in our regulated utilities. We have good line of sight to the remaining $1.10 in the 4th quarter. Let me take a moment to highlight some of the key drivers. Beginning with the Electric segment, We expect year over year revenue favorability from higher volumes, which were impacted by the omicron variant in 2021, a return to normal weather and the Florida multiyear rate plan and other riders. Turning to gas, we will benefit from rate cases and our integrity management riders.

Speaker 3

We will see lower O and M across our electric and gas operations. The timing of plant outages and shaping of O and M With the higher O and M in the first half of twenty twenty two as compared to 2021, we saw this trend begin to reverse in Q3 and expect it to accelerate in Q4. Finally, we expect the other segment to be unfavorable to the prior year, primarily due to higher interest expense. Moving to Slide 12. I'll highlight the key growth drivers for 2023 that support our 5.55 to $5.75 EPS range for the year.

Speaker 3

2023 reflects the acceleration of investments in our clean energy transition across our service territory and the implementation of key provisions from House Bill 951. Beginning with the Electric segment, We'll enter 2023 with load that is 2% higher than pre pandemic levels. Going forward, we expect load growth to be back in line with our pre pandemic assumption of flat to 0.5% growth per year. This will be offset by weather, which is in favorable year to date in 2022. Shifting to rate cases and riders, we have an active regulatory calendar across our jurisdictions.

Speaker 3

This includes 3 rate cases in the Carolinas and 2 rate cases in Ohio. In Florida, we'll move to the 2nd year of our multiyear rate plan with an updated 10.1% ROE. Finally, we see growth through continued investment in our electric and gas riders. Macroeconomic conditions remain dynamic. And as Lynn mentioned earlier, we're exercising our business agility by increasing our 2023 cost mitigation target from $200,000,000 to 300,000,000 We have a strong track record of pulling both structural and tactical levers to flex our costs to meet business challenges head on and are confident we can achieve these savings.

Speaker 3

Lastly, we will enjoy a partial year benefit of interest expense savings from reduced holdco debt with proceeds from the commercial renewable sale. Before we open it up for questions, let me close with Slide 13. With the pending sale of our commercial business, we'll transition to a fully regulated business with robust investment opportunities, roughly $145,000,000,000 over the next decade. This also positions the company with a derisked earnings profile, giving us confidence in achieving our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance range of $5.55 to $5.75 and 5% to 7% growth rate. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

Operator

Thank We have the first question on the phone lines from Shah Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 4

Hi, sir.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Good morning. Shulan, you guys put out a 'twenty three guidance figure out there without a commercial deal I know obviously you see robust interest, but the ultimate transaction multiple here matters a lot. Can you maybe touch a little bit on your sort of level of confidence here ahead of selecting a bidder? Do you have some firm offers that's giving you this kind of visibility into 23 and to have this tight of an EPS range, are recent deals in New York a good proxy?

Speaker 5

Have you narrowed down the bidders? I guess Just some more visibility on this pending deal that's kind of embedded in your 2023 guide would be really helpful and if there's any conservative bend here. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Shar. Sure. I would start by saying, Shar, we have a lot of experience And dealing with portfolio transactions, if you think about the history of Duke. And as we began the strategic review process, A lot of work has been done, not only to challenge our strategic assumptions, but also to do work in the market, hiring advisors, Understanding the range of potential valuations, including soliciting feedback from the market and feedback from credible counterparties. So we do have indications of interest, robust indications of interest from credible counterparties And have a high degree of confidence that we will transact on this business.

Speaker 2

All of that went into our decision to announce the sale. So that's kind of consistent with the way we would approach anything of this magnitude and this type of decision to do our homework before we announce. So when we look at the guidance range for 2023, we not only have Commercial renewables contemplated with a high degree of confidence we'll execute, but we have strong regulated growth. And we also have strong cost mitigation already in place And ready to go in light of some of the headwinds that we're all experiencing in the economy. So I feel like we've put together a very credible guidance range For a company that represents one of the strongest regulated utilities in the industry, we feel like 2023 is off to a strong start.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then just tax leakage, I guess you guys have enough in plan to offset any kind of leakage there

Speaker 4

Michelle. We believe we

Speaker 2

can manage within this range, Charlie. We wouldn't have put it out there if we didn't think we could do that. So high degree of confidence in executing and a high degree of confidence in the range.

Speaker 5

Okay, perfect. And then lastly, Lynn, turning to the carbon plan, obviously, The commission has been very clear at hearings and in filings that intends to meet that December 31 deadline to have a final order and an initial plan in place. Obviously, you guys highlighted last week you filed a proposed order in the docket supporting a real wide range of different technologies. But everyone seems to be kind of in different directions. It doesn't appear we have a lot of consensus among over a dozen parties that are involved.

Speaker 5

So it's a little bit more contentious than we would have thought. I guess, how does the commission bridge these gaps? It seems to be a little bit of a tight time frame by year end. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Sharron, what I would say to you is the feedback in this process is something that Looks reasonable and somewhat predictable to us. So the solar industry is interested in more solar. The industrials are interested in low prices. Low income, we're interested in the impact to low income.

Speaker 2

Attorney General and the environmental community want us to go as fast as we can to reduce carbon. So as we look at how the hearing rolled out, the testimony that was Presented the case that we put forward, we felt like all of those positions were well understood, were well discussed in the hearing And didn't find them surprising in any way, frankly. But that's what creates kind of the fertile ground for the commission to make decisions. And the good news is in the near term, it's all about solar and battery. And we have time on the long term To make decisions about some of the more difficult pump storage, SMR, offshore wind.

Speaker 2

And so we think there's a strength to our recommendation to use the next couple of years to look at development on those key technologies So that we're prepared by the middle of the decade to make the decisions about where to go. So I would say a very good process, a very transparent process, Not surprising in any way on where the parties put forward their positions. And I think the commission has a lot of good information On which to make their decision and we expect them to do so by the end of the year.

Speaker 5

Got it. Terrific guys. Thanks so much and we'll see you in about a week. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Shar.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith of Bank of America. Please go ahead when you're ready, Julian.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning, Lynn and team. Thank you guys very much. Hey, good morning. Liz, just following up from Shari's question, maybe a couple of details tied to it. Again, I see the discount offs.

Speaker 6

So can you talk a little bit about Partial year assumption of lower interest expense, just what's the timing assumed there? I know people are looking very carefully at the 20 3 numbers. So just if you can elaborate there? And then related actually, I'll just ask you the follow-up would be, can you elaborate a little bit on the effectively the $0.30 of cost reductions with the 300,000,000 How does that square with the earlier sensitivity you provided against interest rates at this point? Effectively, where are On 'twenty three and beyond assumptions on sort of effectively fully offsetting that impact.

Speaker 6

Sure.

Speaker 2

And Julian, I think for planning purposes, we are thinking about the commercial renewables transaction as being mid year. And we'll know more as we get into the final round bidding, etcetera, and hope to be able to give you more feedback in the February call. But I think mid year as the partial year would be the right planning assumption. And on the cost reduction, I think you'll recall that back in The Q2, we had undertaken something that we call the work reduction initiative, really focused on ways we can simplify work, use digital technologies In order to streamline our governance processes, our reporting processes, etcetera, and we were targeting 200,000,000 We were also at the same time looking at supply chain and looking at other things that we could do to potentially more tactically move O and M out of 2023. And we were able to increase that $200,000,000 target to $300,000,000 We have sized that, Julian, to give us Confidence around the macroeconomic trends.

Speaker 2

So when I look at interest rates, for example, we are in a position With the work that we've done to be able to hit this guidance range despite the headwind of interest rates. And as we look ahead beyond 2023, We have modest amounts of maturities in 2024 and we also see the benefit of the IRA Showing up more materially in 2024. I think we've talked about the nuclear PTCs being consequential for us. We see IRA as not only benefiting customers, but being credit positive, cash flow positive to the utility. So we feel like we've got good Plans in place here and I'm really pleased that we got after a cost reduction.

Speaker 2

As you know, we always do early enough and 2022 that we have a high degree of confidence for 2023 and beyond. We think of the $300,000,000 75 percent of it is sustainable.

Speaker 6

Got it. And if I may just to continue with that thought, the unsustainable piece, that remaining 25%, Is that order of magnitude pretty comparable to the interest savings that you get from the tailwind in the 24% from the first half of the year with the commercial renewables Having a run rate impact on the sale?

Speaker 2

Julian, I haven't thought about it. I haven't thought about that specifically because the way I approach every year is looking for a way to save money. So we may have come up with some new ideas in 2023 for 2024. The continuous improvement mindset at Duke runs pretty deep and we're always trying to find ways to reduce costs.

Speaker 6

Got it. And so the cash flow uplift on the nuclear side to your credit metrics, just to elaborate on that if Can I know things are still in flux a bit, but if you can quantify that?

Speaker 2

Julian, it's several $100,000,000 We believe our regulator fleet qualifies and we operate very low cost nuclear units. And so we will be working with our regulators on the appropriate way to recognize those benefits. And Those scenarios could have a range of passing it back over 2 years, 3 years, 5 years. And in the meantime, we have the opportunity to Strengthen the balance sheet or the cash flows, if you will, from those credits.

Speaker 6

Thank you again. Good luck. Thank

Speaker 2

you. Thank

Operator

you. We now have the next question from the line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead when you're ready.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 4

Hi, Duke.

Speaker 7

Hi, Lynn. So just I think you just answered this On Julien's question, but just to maybe ask again a little differently. So obviously, the cost cutting offsets A lot of pressures in 2023. In 2024 and beyond, as you mentioned, the cost cutting moderates and It goes through regulated rates also and but the Holdco debt refinancing and stuff continues assuming rates stay high. But it sounds like what you're thinking is that the approved cash flow and performance at the utilities kind of Can sustain the offset, is that how to think about beyond 23?

Speaker 2

Yes. Steve, I would maybe expand the thinking to be So we also use tools like interest rates hedging, which you would expect us to. We have $1,000,000,000 of proceeds from GIC coming in. We have the commercial renewable transaction. We have cost mitigation.

Speaker 2

We've sized it at 200 to 300 in this year. That will carry forward and we'll continue to look for ways to drive costs out of the business. We also have the IRA coming. So I feel like we've got a variety of tools. And as we look at sort of the profile into 2024, even in this Present environment, we don't have a lot of additional headwinds because of a relatively light maturity period.

Speaker 2

So I would think about all of those factors Together, and recognize that we are working very strategically to minimize these costs and to manage the business effectively.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. And then just in terms of thinking about kind of dividend growth, Should we given that there is some kind of reset a little bit on the earnings, just should we assume you continue at kind of a rate Below the earnings growth for another couple of years before you move it up into the earnings growth range?

Speaker 2

Steve, it's a really good question and one we're looking at closely. We had set a target of being in the 65% to 70% payout range. And in this 5 year period, we will be well positioned in that range. So our expectation would be to recommend a dividend increase at the right time in the 5 year period to match something closer to the growth in the business. But I think 2% is a good planning assumption for 2023.

Speaker 2

We'll look at it again in 20 24 and beyond. But this is something that's getting a lot of Tension in light of the de risking of the business, in the light of the strength of the capital, the cash flow we're anticipating and the work that we've done to moderate the payout ratio.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Steve. We now have David Aker of Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 3

I was wondering if you

Speaker 8

could just maybe elaborate a little More around the load growth backdrop that you're seeing, and for the sounded like flat to 0.5% growth assumed into 2023, what are the puts Is that conservative based on what you've seen so far this year? And then would be just curious on that industrial slowdown that you've seen. Do you expect that to continue into 2023 as well as that factored in.

Speaker 2

And David, I'll make a couple of comments and then turn it over to Brian. We use a conservative load of growth assumption in our planning. We size our cost structure to be consistent with that. We but when I look at the strength of the economy that we are enjoying right now and the volumes That are coming through. We have we're very well positioned.

Speaker 2

And Brian made a comment in his remarks that we're already 2% above pre pandemic levels, which I think is quite an extraordinary rebound. So Brian, how would you add to that and maybe talk a little bit about the industrial

Speaker 3

Yes. So first on the general economy, David, we continue to see migration into our territories And it's driving both the residential and the commercial class. So those growth profiles are strong. And as Lynn said, we use conservative assumptions as we look out in future years to really size our business. On the industrial side, We've seen some companies with planned shutdowns this quarter.

Speaker 3

So we don't feel like it's a trend that's going to linger. It was planned as well as some of the supply chain bottlenecks that continue to show up in different pockets of industry. The automotive sector was 1 this quarter that showed surfaced. But again, those things Our worked out over time and nothing systemic. So we're still bullish on all three sectors.

Speaker 2

David, some of the statistics we shared with you on economic development are also noteworthy, and that's not even a complete list of what's happened in 2022. North Carolina was rated number 1 for business for a reason, which low tax environment and Good workforce, great university system, and we have had an extraordinary year from an economic development standpoint, and we expect that to show up over the 5 year period.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thanks so much. That's helpful. And then Was interested in just expanding a bit more on the cost reduction outlook into 2023. What are you seeing for inflationary pressures right now in the O and M budgets?

Speaker 8

Obviously, the backdrop has been tough in terms of inflation pressures, but you're expanding the cost reduction aspirations into next year. Wondering, just how achievable that looks and what pressures you're seeing in the current environment?

Speaker 2

And we do see some inflationary pressures. I would point to materials. I would point to labor. But all of that, David, was a Part of the analysis that went into our cost reduction efforts. So I don't see anything happening in the inflation environment that's impacting our commitment to drive these costs out of the business.

Speaker 2

And the other thing I would point to, a lot of the material Inflation is showing up in our capital plan. And so we're monitoring that as well to make sure that we're spending capital in a prudent way to benefit customers.

Speaker 8

Okay, understood. I appreciate it. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

We now have Nick Campanella of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hi, Nick.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks. Hi.

Speaker 2

Hi.

Speaker 6

So I

Speaker 10

guess just thanks for The updates on the CAGR, it sounds like you're now kind of including the inflation outlook going forward, so that's great. And I recall on just previous calls and talking about the CAGR, you kind of talked about getting to the higher end of the range As the multiyear rate plan kind of come into effect, and you kind of execute on this carbon plan. So I'm just curious if you Just update the investment community on if that dynamic still exists as we get to the out years here in the new CAGR. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Nick, thanks for that question. Let me start by saying, we believe our regulated business with this clean energy transition, $145,000,000,000 of capital over the 10 years has the potential to achieve at the high end of the range. But given the dynamic economic environment that we're in right now, we believe 5% to 7% is the right range to use for the planning assumption and know that we will work every year to be as well positioned within that range as we possibly can. And we've talked about many of those puts and takes, IRA benefits, reducing O and M, all of these things represent opportunities as the plan unfolds.

Speaker 2

And then further, this very meaningful regulatory activity that's underway is another key ingredient. The first multi year rate plan filing for DEP occurred this year. We're expecting another one another filing for DEC in the coming year. So we're putting pieces in place And trying to address the macroeconomic environment at the same time. And we believe all of this, given the Premier regulated utilities that we offer is a very strong value proposition for investors.

Speaker 10

Thanks for that. And then I just wanted to pivot to renewables quick acknowledging that you are moving away from the commercial segment. But As you mentioned, you're doing a ton in the regulated arena. So just maybe just a general state of the state on what you're seeing in the renewable supply chain at this point. I see that you're still kind of executing in Florida with the 300 megawatts that went into service in 2022 as planned, but just general kind of comments on supply chain and ability to kind of get things done in the 5 year window.

Speaker 10

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Nick, thank you for that. And I think as we've talked over the last Year with some of the challenges in the supply chain, we have always leaned to our regulated business And make sure we have adequate supply and we have extended our purchasing relationship with our suppliers To extend on a multiyear period so that we have confidence around supply into 2026 and beyond with options to continue, we're putting similar arrangements in place for battery storage. So we are confident in our ability to execute the regulated plan and have Just so many opportunities as we pursue this clean energy transition. We are working to make sure we've got the supply chain, the labor, etcetera, and have been Successful so far and see that continuing.

Speaker 9

Thanks a

Speaker 10

lot, Lynn. See you soon.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead when you're ready.

Speaker 4

Good morning.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning, Lynn. I just had a quick follow-up, Hopefully quick, on the interest expense into 2023, any color, Brian, that you can share as to what level of Rates interest rates, are you using as we look out to 2023 particularly related to your variable debt? So we can kind of do the sensitivity as you look out to the interest rate outlook here?

Speaker 2

Yes, Durgesh, the sensitivity of 100 basis points representing about $0.12 is probably the Best and clean us without getting into specific detail on commercial paper and long term debt, recognizing the tenure can fluctuate. I think that's a really good proxy for you and would point you there.

Speaker 11

Okay, perfect. Thank you. I appreciate it.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We now have Sophie Karp of KeyBanc. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. So a couple of questions here, if I may. First, with the sale of renewable business, does that present an opportunity for you to Have conversations with rating agencies about reviewing and maybe improving your corporate credit rating and what impact could it have on your borrowing costs?

Speaker 2

So we keep close relationship with the agencies. And by that, I mean sharing with them all of our plans, What we expect in terms of this transaction, the derisking of the business, I wouldn't expect though given the magnitude of this, so it's only 5 Of the business that it would have an impact on downgrade threshold or anything of that sort. But it gives us an opportunity to de risk, Gives us an opportunity to bring in some cash and all of that is important to the agencies and we'll keep them apprised every step of the way.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you. And then on the cost cutting initiatives you're talking about, the Total target that you're talking about is really impressive, especially given the inflationary environment that we are in and how some of your peers are struggling to control costs right now. Could you just maybe share some, for example, I don't know about what you're planning to do there, so we can get a better sense of what your initiatives are with cost controls and

Operator

you can

Speaker 4

take those from the ground.

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. And Sophie, I appreciate that. And the one comment I would make is, This is where size and scale matters, because we've had an opportunity to drive costs through the supply chain as a result of that size and scale that has been helpful, But also a variety of other projects. We've been working on this over the course of the summer, looking at work reduction efforts.

Speaker 2

And Brian, you might have some perspective that you would share on specific examples, maybe some of the reporting, the governance, the digital.

Speaker 3

Yes, certainly, Sophie, and good morning. So we really took a fresh look at the entire corporation and said, how are we going to Get the work done, we need to get done. We prioritized certain roles over others. So we said some roles had More purpose 5 years ago and now they need to be repositioned. We looked at our real estate footprint And said how can we optimize the real estate in this post COVID world.

Speaker 3

So there was an opportunity there to really reduce The amount of corporate real estate we operate, and we just looked at governance across the company and Making sure that we maintain our controls, but while running a leaner organization. And it was really a grassroots effort where we got input from All of our teammates to try to figure out what are the best areas to execute on. We have over 200 initiatives. So it isn't a one shot thing. It's Many, many small singles and bunt singles that are going to add up to this $200,000,000 that we've upsized to $300,000,000 as we've looked at the opportunity set.

Speaker 2

You know, Sophie, one example in Brian's area that I would share, If you look at the amount of reporting that comes out of finance at Duke Energy, there's a lot of it, not all of it results in decision making. So we've used this as an opportunity to sweep through what kind of information do we give our operating leaders in order to manage their business. Similarly in IT, lots and lots of applications, right? Do we need all of them? Do we have applications that are only used for a handful of people?

Speaker 2

And can we transfer them? With that, you've got license fees, you've got cybersecurity expense, you have people who maintain those systems. So it's things like that where you're just standing back and Looking at all those corporate functions, the service levels we're offering, and determine is there a way to do it leaner and more efficiently using technology. And As you would expect, when you look every few years at those things, opportunities arise.

Speaker 4

Thank you so much for this color. Very helpful.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead when you're ready.

Speaker 2

Hi, Michael.

Speaker 9

Hey, Lynn. Thank you for taking my questions. And Brian, I think this is your first earnings call. Leading and I may be wrong. I may be getting seen on that.

Speaker 4

There it is.

Speaker 3

It is, Michael. Thank you.

Speaker 2

No. Everybody remembers their first call, Michael, it's true.

Speaker 9

I could imagine. They should have given out trophies or something like that. I'm sure I can figure that out. Hey, a couple of questions. One, can you remind me, one short term a little bit, Lynn, one's long term.

Speaker 9

Can you remind me the cadence and schedule for filing both the North and South Carolina at Duke Energy Carolinas? That's question 1. Question 2 is kind of thinking much longer term, which is many of the stakeholders in North Carolina in the carbon plan Have expressed support for offshore wind. And yet, if you look at the end of the companies developing offshore wind in the U. S, you've got one company on the East Coast Trying to back out of its PPAs, the signed contracts that they signed less than a year and a half ago.

Speaker 9

You've got a large European operator and developer of U. S.-based offshore winds, who in its earnings call this week said that returns and the progress of developing and installing offshore wind is facing headwinds. Can you just Kind of talk about your views of some of the, I don't know, I'll call offshore wind still a bit of an emerging technology, but just Kind of how you're thinking about the risk reward for Duke relative to doing something as significant as that?

Speaker 2

Yes, Michael, thank you. And let me I'll do first rate cases. So, Duke Energy Carolinas, North Carolina Will be filed in early 2023. You may recall that the sequence of these things, you host a technical conference To talk about the capital in the multi year rate plan that occurred this week or last week recently, and then the rate case will follow. We have not yet announced timing or plans for a DEC case in South Carolina.

Speaker 2

So more to come on that, and we'll keep you updated along the way. Offshore wind is something that we believe is an option over this 20,3012,040, 2050 period here in the Carolinas. It represents diversity of supply. It is a renewable resource. But as I say all of that, we also recognize it's expensive.

Speaker 2

It has transmission requirements, particularly here in the Carolinas, where you've got to get the power to the load centers that are further west than the coast. And so the approach that we're taking is one of studying and learning more and also allowing the commission And stakeholders and the communities that could be impacted by both the offshore and the onshore transmission to be involved as well. We will not move 1st and we will not move outside of the regulated business. So the risk reward for investors and And so I would say we're in an evaluation mode. We think it's an important resource.

Speaker 2

We think it is important over this clean energy transition, but we're being deliberate and thoughtful and cautious as we move into it.

Speaker 9

Got it. And then last question, just on energy reliability. Just curious how you're thinking about the near Meaning next 3 to 5 years for your coal generation fleet. Given the uptick in demand that you and some of your peers in the Southeast are seeing, as And just some of the details like in the Midwest ISO and elsewhere That the grid operators and others have put out concerned about near term reliability constraints.

Speaker 2

Michael, it's a really good question. And what I would say to you is, as we contemplated the various scenarios we presented in the carbon plan, As we contemplated the integrated resource plan in Indiana, and in fact, we're updating that integrated resource plan in Indiana To include the new planning assumptions that MISO requires, consistent with those reliability concerns. We will not present a plan that does not maintain reliability. And we will not retire assets that are needed to maintain reliability. And so that's something that is being closely monitored.

Speaker 2

Our Regulators completely understand and support that. And so I think we just have to work our way through it, Making sure that we have replacement generation, transmission ready to go, the combination of resources ready to go so that when we retire, Our customers can expect reliability. That is our commitment and that's the way we're planning and executing

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to hand it back to Lynn for some final remarks.

Speaker 2

Ricca, thank you, and thanks to everyone who joined. We will see you in a week. I'm pretty confident we'll get to do this again. Small rooms at EEI, so we'll look forward to seeing you then. Thanks again for your interest, your questions and look forward to seeing you soon.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all again for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

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