Nucor Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 20, 2022

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain Statements made during this conference call will be forward looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, Anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available.

Operator

Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, There can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10 ks and subsequently filed 10 Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's websites. The forward looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation.

Operator

Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 earnings call. Joining the call today are other members of Nucor's executive team, including Dave Simosky, Chief Operating Officer Steve Laxton, Chief Financial Officer Al Baer, responsible for Plate and Structural Products John Hollitz, responsible for Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fab Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and our General Counsel Dan Needham, responsible for our commercial strategy Rex Query, responsible for sheet and tubular products And chow to you to Mark, responsible for new markets and innovation. As our teammates continue to serve our customers and what we anticipate Will be a record year for Nucor financially, we've not lost focus on our most important goal of becoming the world's safest steel company. After 2 record setting safety years in 2020 2021, we are on pace for the safest year In Nucor's history in 2022, I want to acknowledge the progress demonstrated by all of our teammates As they continue to take care of our most important value, I'd also like to thank and give a shout out to our sheet and engineered bar teams for achieving world class safety performance so far this year. And I want to encourage all of our team members to maintain their focus on safety, so we can again achieve our most important goal that we have set for our company.

Speaker 1

Regarding our financial results in the 3rd quarter, We posted earnings of $6.50 per share. And through the 1st 9 months of this year, We have earned $23.85 per diluted share, setting an all time record for Nucor Corporation. Our earnings in the Q3 were down compared to the record high levels we achieved in the 1st 2 quarters of the year. And as we indicated in our guidance, Earnings from our steel mill segments were lower in the 3rd quarter due to metal margin contraction and reduced shipping volumes, particularly at our sheet and plate mills. Prices have decreased more rapidly than our raw material costs, and we've also had planned outages at several of our mills.

Speaker 1

The ongoing war in Ukraine, dynamic changes in energy cost and shifting monetary policy have amplified economic uncertainty. Even with this uncertainty, we continue to see good demand here in the United States, particularly in our Steel Products segments, which had strong earnings again in the Q3. Their performance was largely the result of continued robust demand from the non res construction market. U. S.

Speaker 1

Census Bureau data reflects that the total domestic non res construction spending hit a record in August at $79,400,000,000 Steve Laxton is going to provide more details on the financial performance of our 3 business segments and The outlook for the final quarter of the year. Although increased economic uncertainty and lower pricing for many steel grades Means it's unlikely we'll see more record highs for the rest of the year. We believe that the medium and long term outlook for our business is quite positive. We continue to execute on our various capital investment projects so that we're well positioned to seize market opportunities as they evolve. Consistent reinvestment in our businesses has been the critical factor enabling value creation by our team over the years.

Speaker 1

The construction and start up of our Nucor Steel Brandenburg Plate Mill continues to progress incredibly well with respect to safety, budget and schedule. The Brandenburg team has already commissioned the electric arc furnace, the ladle metallurgical furnace and anticipates commissioning the vacuum tag degasser And Caster in the next several weeks. Commissioning is also underway in the rolling mill area, positioning the team to produce its first plate products by year's end. The start up this year will have our state of the art mill ready to enter the market in 2023. We also announced that Brandenburg is publicly registered To pursue LEED Version 4 for Building and Design Certification, in a continued trend of environmental leadership as a company, Nucor Steel Brandenburg is the 1st steel mill in the world to pursue certification under LEED Version 4, which is more stringent than previous lead rating systems.

Speaker 1

The new plate mill will play a key role in supplying sustainable steel to build our clean energy infrastructure. It will be one of very few mills worldwide and the only one in the Western Hemisphere Capable of supplying the critical steel components required to build offshore wind farms, I'd like to congratulate our entire Nucor Brandenburg team. The ramp up at Nucor Steel Gallatin continues to progress. Although we anticipated a full run rate production By the end of this year, we now expect that this will occur in Q1 of 2023. The majority of our startup delays have centered around equipment sequencing And remembering that this upgrade was a complete modernization of the entire facility, including new automation software throughout the mill.

Speaker 1

This investment combined with the galvanizing line we added in 2019, the addition of the recently purchased pickle line And the 2 mill currently under construction dramatically expands the breadth of market solutions our Gallatin Mill can provide. Collectively, These efforts position Gallatin with a higher, more value added product suite and will enable our team to generate higher profit margins as we move forward. We're proud of the work our team is doing to safely bring the Gallatin facility to its full production capability for our customers. The Q3 was also the 1st full quarter of operating CHI overhead doors since closing on the acquisition in June. We continue to work closely with the CHI team to integrate them into Nucor, and we are already realizing supply chain efficiencies because of the acquisition.

Speaker 1

We're also working to capitalize on incremental sales opportunities now that CHI is part of Nucor. We are very excited about the growth potential of this new portion of our business and we are on track for a record 2022 and ahead of our acquisition model expectations. We also announced in the Q3 that we will be adding a melt shop at our Kingman Arizona facility. The new $100,000,000 melt shop We'll have the capacity to produce 600,000 tons annually and create approximately 140 new full time jobs. Kingman is currently a rolling mill and we're leveraging that existing footprint and adding melt shop capacity there to efficiently meet the growing demand for rebar in the Western U.

Speaker 1

S. Lastly, at the end of the Q3, we announced that the Nucor Board of Directors approved the construction of a galvanizing line at our Nucor Steel that is expected to begin operations in mid-twenty 25. The Board also approved an additional galvanizing line To be constructed in the Western United States with details to be announced at a future date, the new Berkeley line will be our 8th wholly owned Galvin line. These investments further advance our strategy of shifting our mix to higher margin value added products and Capitalizing on sustainability trends that are driving more growth opportunities for Nucor. Turning to Washington for a moment.

Speaker 1

During the Q3, Congress passed the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, two pieces of legislation that will strengthen domestic manufacturing and create opportunities in the future for the American Steel Industry. The CHIPS Act promotes semiconductor manufacturing here at home, which is strengthening our supply chains and helping us unleash a manufacturing renaissance across the United States. The Inflation Reduction Act invests in the domestic manufacturing of clean technologies to reduce emissions. It also contains provisions that encourage the procurement of American made steel products in clean energy infrastructure. Incentives to build our clean energy future With low emission steel produced by the U.

Speaker 1

S. Industry give us a competitive advantage. And finally, as we've mentioned in previous calls, we expect To start seeing the impacts of new federal infrastructure spending in 2023 as states continue to move forward with their projects. With our expanded capabilities and sustainable steel products, we are well positioned to supply the broad array of solutions that are essential to these efforts. And we are confident that as we do so, our efficient and flexible business model and diversified product portfolio will enable us to deliver very attractive returns on our shareholders' valuable capital.

Speaker 1

Before I turn it over to Steve, We must stay focused on working safely and operating reliably to take great care of our customers. Let's finish this year having 2022 be the safest and most profitable year in Nucor's history. Now Steve Laxton will share with you additional details about our Q3 performance and our outlook through the end of

Speaker 2

the year. Steve? Thanks, Leon. This quarter's earnings of $6.50 per diluted share represent the 5th best quarterly results ever posted by Nucor. Year to date earnings per share of $23.85 actually beats the record we established last year for a full year EPS of 23 point and operating cash flow through the 1st 9 months of the year was approximately $7,500,000,000 also setting the new annual record.

Speaker 2

The entire Nucor team should be very proud of these results. Comparing this quarter's results to the prior quarter, Our Steel segment earnings were down about 55%. Shipment volumes were down about 9% with sheet and plate volumes relatively weaker And long products more stable. Overall, metal margins contracted by approximately 11% as lower realized pricing for sheet, And higher energy cost. Energy cost per ton produced increased by 17% during the quarter and now constitute about $57 per ton.

Speaker 2

Some of these costs were offset by natural gas hedges we had in place as well as increased earnings from our producing gas wells in the Peons Basin of Colorado. We continue to see very strong performance from our Steel Products segment. That segment's earnings were up about 6% On the last quarter's record performance, joist and deck results improved from the 2nd quarter, while tubular products profits declined. Joist and deck volumes both increased slightly and pricing on orders shipped during the quarter also rose, while substrate costs declined. Pipe and tube shipments were down almost 16% and realized prices were off about 11%.

Speaker 2

Leon has already referenced The excellent results posted by CHI Overhead Doors. CHI is one of several moves the company has made recently to leverage our capabilities, products And new businesses that have good margins, strong free cash flows and good growth attributes. We call these efforts Expand Beyond. Other platforms in our Expand Beyond efforts include insulated metal panels and warehouse systems. During the quarter, these businesses produced $29,000,000 $28,000,000 in EBITDA, respectively.

Speaker 2

While it's early in the new core life of these three I want to thank our teammates for the excellent work they're doing running and integrating these businesses. Raw Materials segment earnings were up slightly from the 2nd quarter with higher profits from our DRI operations more than offsetting lower results from DJJ. Cash provided by operating activities during the quarter was $2,800,000,000 while capital expenditures totaled approximately $460,000,000 Year to date capital expenditures totaled $1,430,000,000 For the full year, we now expect capital expenditures to be approximately $2,000,000,000 During the quarter, we repurchased 5,300,000 shares and paid $132,000,000 in dividends for a total capital return to shareholders of $784,000,000 or 46 percent of net earnings. Total capital returns to shareholders through the 1st three quarters of the year via dividends and repurchases were approximately $2,750,000,000 or 44 percent of net earnings. During August, we also retired $600,000,000 of senior notes They were set to mature in September.

Speaker 2

We have prefunded this maturity and some other outstanding debt back in March of this year with opportunistic issuance of $1,100,000,000 in new senior notes split evenly between 10 30 year maturities. The coupon on the maturing notes was 4% and 1.8%. The blended coupon on the March issuance was 3.5%. Nucor continues to enjoy excellent access to capital due to our position as a leading manufacturer across a Broad array of steel products, our efficient and highly variable cost structure and our consistent commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet with good financial liquidity. Speaking of the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with debt to capital ratio of 26% and ample liquidity with $3,500,000,000 Cash, short term holdings and restricted cash holdings and our $1,750,000,000 revolving credit facility was undrawn.

Speaker 2

Turning to the outlook for the Q4, we expect our steel mill segment earnings to decline meaningfully relative to the Q3. 4th quarter shipments are projected to be lower compared to the Q3, primarily due to seasonality, customers delaying orders due to economic uncertainty, as well as some of the planned outages in our own fleet. We expect lower realized prices in the quarter for most of our mills due to some of the same factors. The most pronounced effects will be felt in our sheet business. Lower raw materials cost will partially offset some of these impacts.

Speaker 2

We expect lower but still very strong earnings from our Steel Products segment in the 4th quarter, primarily due to seasonality and softer demand. Raw material earnings will also decline sequentially primarily on lower pricing and shipping volumes from DRI. Several factors are combining The ongoing war in Europe, other geopolitical tensions and rapid monetary policy actions attempting to tame inflation likely mean Both challenging elements for Nucor's customer base. Service Centers in particular are cautious at this time. While there are still headwinds in the economy, we also have tailwinds supporting our overall demand.

Speaker 2

Just a few of those factors include non residential construction, particularly in warehousing and re shoring of manufacturing as well as energy and projects funded by the Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act, some of which You should see commencement next year. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much. Just getting back on the volumes and the volume growth that you have experienced in the Q3, It seems that on a year on year basis, most of the declines were in structural and plate lines on total shipments. But by the same token, it seems that the long products and the non residential construction markets are the ones that are holding up a little bit better.

Speaker 3

So can you help us reconcile these seemingly contradictory trends? And how should we think about it in the coming months quarters? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Carlos, I want to make sure I understand your question. Is it why the long products businesses are Seeming to do a little bit more stable in the market than our flat products businesses?

Speaker 3

Right. So that is what I understand In the commentary around the end markets, but in the shipments, in the total shipments that were reported, at least on a year on year basis, There was a significant decline in structural and plate volumes, total volumes, total shipments and sheet only came down around 4%. So yes, I wanted to understand these trends.

Speaker 1

Yes, absolutely. I'll make a couple of comments, maybe ask Albert, who's in charge of our plate and structural group to make a few comments. But overall, look, longs over Many decades now have been our most consistent performance in the marketplace. Historically, again, pre sort of 2021, 2022 levels. For example, we were in the structural businesses in the low 70% utilization rates and made very, very good returns based on That level, again, market leadership position helped that, but also the breadth of products that Nucor Bronze and producers to take care of that customer base also helps.

Speaker 1

We did see some meaningful declines in plate. And again, maybe you just touch

Speaker 4

on that and then we'll come back to structural. Yes. Thanks, Leon. Happy to do that. Thanks, Carlos, for the question.

Speaker 4

I'll handle The structural question first, that's more stable than some of the other markets like Leon has talked about. We'd see Some decline, but and first, any of the comps over last year are tough comps because last year we were at or near our record shipments Many product categories including plate and structural. So depending on whether you're looking over quarters or looking over years, there's that perspective I think you've got to maintain. But on the so on the structural side, we see some softness from service centers. You heard that in the opening commentary.

Speaker 4

We see resilient demand though Fabricators, especially large fabricators that do complex work like chip plants, EV plants, battery plants. We've had more of a decline in play. I think maybe that's where you see more of the volume drop. Certainly, the same dynamic with service centers where they've been destocking through the year and they continue to be very cautious buyers despite Resilient demand from Primoleums and Fabricators. We've seen an increase in imports into that market as well, particularly in coil form and particularly from Canada and So that's a factor.

Speaker 4

And when we look at it, our strategy is to drive value and is to focus on the profitability of these markets and not just chase And so we've been very strategic about how we handle the business and how we go about loading our order book. As we look into Q4, I think we'll see an improvement in shipments, particularly in play due to project work. That's buckets of tons that become available prior to transactional tons. So these are non res contracts. They're bridge work infrastructure.

Speaker 4

We've seen an uptick there and continue to see that into 2023. And I'm happy to provide some comments about 23, but I hope I'm addressing your question about the decline at least year over year.

Speaker 3

Yes. That was great. And yes, if you could comment on what you're seeing for 2023, that would be also great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes. So all this to say we recognize we're headed into some economic uncertainty, but there's a lot of positive reasons for optimism that we see particularly and this is just plate structural. One is infrastructure spending. We've always said that infrastructure is going to be a And we continue to see that and hold that view. Another is energy.

Speaker 4

Energy and particularly renewables have been very strong through the year. We We continue to see that manifesting as well as a pickup in oil and gas we see in the 2023. And then key markets within non res, so Although there may be softness overall, the areas where we play in non res, we're very competitively advantaged. So these are the warehouses and the data centers, the chip plants, the manufacturing reshoring. Those areas where we are positioned best are the areas that show strength And non res construction.

Speaker 4

I can't talk about 2023 without talking about Brandenburg and really what we're most excited about is the opening of our Brandenburg plant. So we're going to bring that online at the end of this year. We're ready for an on time start up, and we're going to bring up the most broadly capable plate mill in the Western Hemisphere. And so that story, that strategy has always been about capability and not capacity. And we'll be very strategic about how we bring those tons online.

Speaker 4

Well, we're ideally suited to serve customers that we couldn't serve before. We'll have a product portfolio in place that's unmatched, and we're anxious to Put in place the strategies to drive value as we bring those assets online. That team has done a tremendous job of executing the project. Leon talked about that in the opening comments. There are a bunch of rock stars, if I can put it very plainly, and what they've come through from 2019 to today to bring a construction Project online on budget and on schedule is a herculean effort

Speaker 5

and couldn't be more proud for those folks. Thanks, Al.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Alan.

Operator

The next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

Speaker 7

Good afternoon, gentlemen. I

Speaker 6

wanted to explore the contract side of your business, if we could, for a little bit. Just also following up with the Q4 sequential move, especially given how much contracted tons you have for sheet. Can you remind us of your percentage there? And how we balance the growth in Gallatin with the guidance for Sheet? And then secondly, on the contract side, as we head into 2023, the commentary we're hearing is that this will be a different year for negotiations, Suffice to say after last year's strong negotiating position with lower prices, maybe seeing something on the CRU discount that's a little Steeper, just wondering if you could comment on how that might look year over year, any thoughts on early negotiations?

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. Tim, I'll start us off. And Rex, if there's anything I missed, please jump in. It's too early to talk about our overall percentage of mix. We're in the middle of our contract season.

Speaker 1

And Historically, Nucor has been in that 70%, 75% range. Again, I'm not sure. I see a meaningfully Difference, but again, we're not through that yet and can comment a little more clearly as we enter the Q4 earnings call in January of next year. But one of the things that's when Al touched on It's really a dichotomy in the markets that we sit today. We're facing 40 year high inflation supply chain It's the war in Ukraine that continues to provide some disruption, monetary policy that's going to raise interest rates until we Roughly double our current unemployment rate.

Speaker 1

So you got all these negative sentiments in the marketplace. And at the same time, we've got some positive. We've Scott, Automotive, as you're well aware, forecasting an additional 1,000,000 tons or 1,000,000 units of new light vehicles coming to the United States in 2023. Energy, as Al just mentioned, particularly in renewables, infrastructure spending that's going to begin to take off. And The other side of that non res construction that Nucor is heavily positioned to take care of in our customer base and Advanced manufacturing like chips, battery plants, cold storage.

Speaker 1

And so what I would share with you and give you a little more than ambiguous or Generalized statements, as we look at the contracts, particularly with OEMs that have been placed so far this year for 2023 and beyond, The long term play as we see it today in the contracts that have been established are forecasting up in volumes about 15% for next year. So again, we see some encouraging signs as our order book and our customers' customers are forecasting I'll be on that. So again, some positive news and again, against the backdrop that remains a little Fuzzy as we walk into the New Year.

Speaker 6

Okay. Sorry, my question was more about contract pricing, but that's helpful information for sure. I guess I'm just wondering if last year the CRU discounts were 1%, 2%. This year could we see something closer to 5%, 6%, 7, 8, 9, is there anything you can tell us about how those discussions are going or if contracts will be a little more flexible this year after being really strict in 2022.

Speaker 5

Hey, Timna. This is Rex Query. I'll comment, some of it May overlap what Leon just stated. The comment he made about the success we're having with partnering with our OEMs, What that's resulting, what we're seeing at this point is a willingness to sign up for multiyear contracts, And we're seeing improved margins. So when you talk about what the discounting is, we look at our business from a margin business.

Speaker 5

It's not a fixation on volume. We want to make sure that we offer the value that We have customers willing to pay for it. And so what we're seeing is improved margins, in particular with the OEMs And multi year contract sign up at this point. I would also comment that we're seeing the recognition of our varied product mix, Our iconic brand of products with 0 carbon offerings, our sustainability, all that's been recognized, In particular, at this point, in the contract season with our OEMs, Chris.

Speaker 6

Okay. If I could sneak one more in, I just wanted to ask about the business on your raw Carol said, we had some reports of saying that you were taking the DRI modules offline in the Q4. When you guided lower, can you just tell us If it might be comparable to the year ago levels or if we're talking about something in between that and just the recent results, that'd be really helpful. Thanks again.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Tim. And I'll ask Dave Zumoski to maybe provide a couple of comments on raw material sector and our outage plans.

Speaker 5

Sure. Thanks, Leon, and thanks, Tim, for the Yes, we moved 2 of our outages from Q2 to Q4 based on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, And it's going to result in about a 30% reduction in shipments. This and the drop of transfer pricing based on the lower pig iron pricing, That's what's really driving the lower results for the raw materials group. There's some margin compression on the recycling side, but most of it Most of it is going to come through the VRI facilities based on that 30% reduction in shipments and in production.

Speaker 6

Okay. I'll leave it there. Thanks again.

Operator

Thanks. The next question is from Tristan Gercer with BNP Paribas. Please go

Speaker 7

ahead. Yes. Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. The first one, if I may, Your commentary around demand and market conditions that are deteriorating into year end, For which end market have you seen more weakness over recent weeks?

Speaker 7

And if you could give us maybe a brief update by end market, that would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Tristan, I'll jump in and begin and get some other comments, please Touch base. But as we look at some of the strengths, we pointed out some of the Motto sector in 2023, again, is forecasting Up about 1,000,000 units for next year. The solar and wind, particularly offshore wind, as Al mentioned, the positioning and timeliness of Brandenburg couldn't be more There's very few mills in the world that can provide that offshore wind sizing and platform of in range of grades. And so again, incredibly well positioned, excited about that opportunity.

Speaker 1

And again, you're seeing that match with the current administration's continued Efforts to ensure that the incentives are there for those build outs to continue to occur. Within the non res, again, there's Some pressure, but there's also some pockets of excellence that we see continuing. Again, the CHIPS Act that was passed recently in Congress, that's going to have a Wonderful reassuring impact to the United States and bringing chip supply right here domestically. The continuation and build out of Gigafactories and battery plants for the electric vehicles will continue. And again, we see great strength in that Cold storage, pharma, all couple other areas in distribution and data centers, we see really, really strong Growth, as we look at maybe some other sectors in heavy industry and heavy equipment and ag, that's probably Fair, but I'm not sure it's going to meaningful meaningfully increase for 2023.

Speaker 1

And yes, really that's probably the best sectors. As we look at the markets that we track and supply into, most for 2023 are showing stable or improving. And so Not a whole lot of decline overall in the markets.

Speaker 7

All right. Thank you. That's really good color. My second question, if I may, I just wanted to know if you could provide us maybe an update On economic sales and the partnerships on low carbon steel and how this has evolved over recent months. And if you can share if you have any target for 2023 and if you've seen any appetite for those low carbon steel sales outside Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes, absolutely. I would tell you, I couldn't be more excited about What our team has done from an environmental and then the commercial position to bring us to the point where we can offer iconic steels. And so I would tell you that demand continues to increase. We obviously were very public as we went into 2022, the first coil Shipped in January of this year to General Motors. However, after that, we've seen great interest from the auto OEMs, But also broader, we're seeing heavy manufacturing, we're seeing HVAC.

Speaker 1

We've had some very public announcements as well in the HVAC with Trane About that partnership and their pledges to meet their sustainability goals and Their long term reduction in their carbon footprint only gets accelerated with a net incoming steel of 0. So We're seeing great interest in that, and I think that will continue in the years to come. Our move in the U. S. Economy to build out a green and digital economy We'll be built with steel and the steel that it gets built with matters.

Speaker 1

And again, we are offering the cleanest steels, the safest manufacturing and most efficient And diverse product offering anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. So again, to your question Tristan, that move to Cleaner steels and a near net zero steel is going to continue that trend in the coming years and beyond.

Speaker 7

Any targets you can share at this stage or

Speaker 1

We haven't released any targets in terms of our volume and what we're going to supply in Well, we have targeted and been very public about is our 35% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2,035 2,030, excuse me. And so that would take us roughly from that 0.48 tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced to somewhere in that 0 0.42 range. And so, excuse me, 0.38 range. And so again, We're making strides in investments every day to continue to stay very close to new technologies, carbon sequestration, hydrogen reforming And the like and that will continue meaningfully in the years to go, so that again we can offer more and more of the net zero steels to our customer base.

Speaker 7

All right. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Tristan.

Operator

The next question is from Emily Chang with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good afternoon, Leon and Steve. My first question is just around non resi construction once more. When you think about the mix shift in non resi construction That's giving you confidence on the outlook there. How should we be thinking about the steel intensity of the new projects coming online versus Maybe some of the pockets of weaknesses like warehousing, for instance, or is it really the pace and number of new projects being sanctioned right now That's offsetting that those weaker pockets that's underpinning your positive outlook there?

Speaker 1

Yes, Emily, look, I appreciate the question. And Certainly, again, there's a lot to unpack, whether it's in non res or flats in the sheet business in terms of Economic signals and then true demand. And so I've shared a couple of times on the call parts of that non res story that we see strength. So I'm going to do and maybe Chad you to Mark, over our products group, just provide a little more detail and background and what you're seeing in terms of That customer to customer input and what we're seeing in terms of that strength in demand, Chad?

Speaker 9

Yes. Thanks, Leon, and thanks for the question, Emily. As been mentioned before, and I'll echo, we continue to remain very bullish and excited about 2023 in the non res space. And I guess, to break down what gives us that optimism is, first of all, Our backlogs are at historically high levels. While we're off the peak, those unprecedented levels We saw last year, they're still very, very high.

Speaker 9

And a lot of these projects, they're already moving. Dirts already been moved. Concrete is being poured. So we have a lot of confidence that we'll see those projects come to fruition. Furthermore, with our breadth of products and the connections and relationships we have with our customers, 1st, the feedback we're getting from our fabricator base, as Al mentioned, especially the larger fabricators, is they're very, very optimistic and their backlogs Go well out into next year, in some cases, even further.

Speaker 9

Also, if you look at the 2 main indicators that a lot of us track, Dodge and ABI, They continue to point to strong activity. Part of your question was about the steel intensity of these projects. I would say, when you start talking about manufacturing plants, EV related facilities, data centers, coal storage, all these big projects, they're very steel intensive. So we're right in the sweet spot, we feel like, at Nucor to supply and meet those needs. So and then it was mentioned infrastructure We'll play a huge part, we believe, in 2023 2024 to support Nucor's efforts, not only in Downstream, but in our plate business, in our Structural Business and in our bar business.

Speaker 8

Great. I appreciate the additional color. A follow-up I had was just around what maybe sort of lumped into Conversion costs, appreciate the comments earlier on energy and apologies if I missed something on other components of those cost pressures that you're seeing there, but anything that you would be able to share around cost inflationary pressures and whether or not those are sticking or you're seeing them come off?

Speaker 10

Yes. Hey, Emily, this is Steve. Thanks for that question. Energy is the most pronounced cost increase we've seen. That's about 50% year over year, and we gave you some numbers in the script on where we are.

Speaker 10

Two other parts are also outside of the metal spread. So the substrate is obviously the largest Cost input that we have, but freight and labor costs are also up year over year. That's consistent with probably what every company in America has seen. But I would remind you, Emily, that about 85% of our cost in our steelmaking is variable. And that's a decided advantage for Nucor over many of our competitors that have much less flexibility and adaptability to respond to Dynamic conditions and cost overall.

Speaker 10

So we're not necessarily happy about cost going up, but as Al Baer mentioned earlier, We run a margin business, so we manage everything to the margin, not necessarily to the absolute cost.

Speaker 8

Got it. That's really helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Emily.

Operator

The next question is from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, good afternoon.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, Phil.

Speaker 11

Hey, I just wanted to stick with Emily's question a bit longer because my model kind of exploded here in terms of costs because my spreads were better, but my Steel profits were not and the sequential pickup on my model was pretty substantial for conversion costs, so even on a sequential basis. So I'm just trying to think through that and then Maybe just expand the conversation a little bit because it wasn't just a little bit of a pickup.

Speaker 10

Yes. Phil, I think the other In addition to talking about cost, the volumes were down for us. So that's an important part of maybe that you may have NIST, in your model assumptions heading into the quarter relative to what actually happened?

Speaker 11

No, volumes were pretty much there and revenues were actually a little bit better than what I had. And so just to solve for that, it I had some that, I don't know if you loaded a bunch of maintenance into the quarter and that was substantial. I'm not really sure, but it just really stood out.

Speaker 10

No, we really didn't. And I apologize, I can't see into your Excel spreadsheet from where I'm sitting. But our pre operating and start up costs were in line with the prior quarter. Utilizations were down. That's going to drive your costs somewhat, but the other costs are in line with what you're seeing overall in the marketplace.

Speaker 10

And we're certainly happy to follow-up with you, Phil, And dig into that in more detail and try to help dial into dial into maybe what's being missed there.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then D and A was up substantially quarter on quarter. Was that as Brandenburg's coming out of Startup and then the full phasing, was that the biggest pickup?

Speaker 10

Yes. The 2 big drivers on that really have more to do with some of the startups, but also the CHI Acquisition that was done, those two things, if you're picking up amortization in your D and A number, then you're grabbing that one.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then just lastly on looking probably a little over $2,000,000,000 of CapEx next year, I think You had laid that out prior. So just want to reiterate that if you could. And then anything that you can comment on in terms of working capital in Q4 and what the size of the magnitude it could be of the draw? Thanks.

Speaker 10

Yes. Phil, on the CapEx side, Yes, we do have about $4,500,000,000 of projects that we've announced that will be we'll be working on between now 2025. So we'll have an elevated level of CapEx here for at least for next year. And so we'll be likely north of $2,000,000,000 We'll refine that further as we go into the end of the year here and finalize our budgets. On the working capital, as you said, we released Just under $600,000,000 in the quarter on working capital, depending on where your model is Assuming on volumes and prices, you could see a similar number or even slightly higher in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 10

Thank you, Phil.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you. I'd like to thank our team for an incredible 9 months in 2022 And ask that each of you stay focused on delivering the safest and most profitable year in our history. Additionally, I want to thank our customers who enable our We appreciate the trust you placed in Nucor with every order and we'll continue to work hard to earn your business. And finally, thank you to our shareholders With the trust that you place in Nucor, we take our responsibility seriously and we'll work daily to continue to be great stewards of the valuable shareholder capital Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Nucor Q3 2022
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