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Ameren Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

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Key Points

  • Ameren reported Q1 2026 EPS of $1.28 versus $1.07 a year earlier, driven by more than $1.5 billion of infrastructure investments that improved reliability and the company reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $5.25–$5.45 per share.
  • Management highlighted a large-load/data-center pipeline — 3.4 GW of construction agreements in Missouri (with 2.2 GW converted to ESAs) and 850 MW in Illinois — saying some ESA announcements and groundbreakings could occur in Q2 and that faster-than-assumed ramping would boost sales but require additional generation.
  • Ameren is advancing more than 5 GW of new generation and storage through 2030 (including Castle Bluff and Big Hollow gas plants and battery capacity), pursuing regulatory filings and transmission projects to support growth, and is targeting about $4 billion of equity issuance through 2030 with an S&P rating of BBB+.
  • Five stocks to consider instead of Ameren.

Ameren NYSE: AEE reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.28 per share, up from $1.07 per share in the first quarter of 2025, as increased infrastructure investment across operating segments drove results, company executives said on the utility’s earnings call. The company also reaffirmed its 2026 earnings per share guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45.

First-quarter results and reliability investments

President and CEO Marty Lyons said the $0.21 year-over-year increase in quarterly earnings per share “reflected increased infrastructure investments across all operating segments.” He added that Ameren made more than $1.5 billion of infrastructure investments during the first quarter to “maintain and enhance our quality of service.”

Lyons pointed to several examples of reliability benefits during severe weather. He said that during January’s “multi-day Winter Storm Fern,” Ameren’s “diverse generation fleet performed exceptionally well.” He also said Ameren Illinois’ gas storage portfolio “helped shield customers from extreme market prices, saving about $63 million,” while upgrades to underground storage fields are expected to lower long-term operating costs and support winter reliability.

Lyons said Ameren Missouri avoided “4.3 million outage minutes for nearly 20,000” customers in March, and that system automation during late April storms helped avoid “an additional 43,000 customer outages and 12 million outage minutes each over a two-day period,” reducing the overall customer impact “by nearly half.”

As part of efforts to improve peak-period performance, Lyons cited optimization work at the Audrain Energy Center that is expected to “improve winter reliability by adding up to 700 megawatts of capacity on the coldest days.” At the Labadie Energy Center, he said “significant boiler enhancements this year are designed to reduce the number and length of prospective outages.”

Lyons also said Ameren connected customers with “more than $40 million in energy assistance and weatherization resources” through company programs and partnerships during the quarter.

Guidance reaffirmed; weather and costs discussed

EVP and CFO Lenny Singh echoed the first-quarter earnings comparison and said infrastructure investments remain “the primary drivers of earnings growth across the company.” Singh noted that Ameren Missouri’s first-quarter electric retail sales were “negatively impacted by warmer than normal winter temperatures” compared with the colder-than-normal first quarter of 2025.

Singh said the company remains confident in its 2026 guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 per share and emphasized disciplined cost management. He also reminded investors that Ameren increased “energy center and discretionary tree trimming expenditures” in the second half of 2025 to enhance customer experience during severe weather, and said the company expects “higher tree trimming costs in 2026, particularly in the second quarter,” compared to 2025.

Large-load and data center demand: pipeline and timing

Management spent much of the question-and-answer session discussing large-load demand, including data centers, and how that growth could affect sales forecasts and capital plans.

Lyons said the company has “several gigawatts in each state” of additional projects in Missouri and Illinois with engineering studies underway, beyond the company’s existing construction agreements. He also said Ameren is having discussions with hyperscalers that have already signed energy service agreements (ESAs) in Missouri about “expansion opportunities beyond what they’ve already signed up for.”

Lyons described current contracting activity in Missouri and Illinois:

  • Missouri: 3.4 gigawatts of construction agreements, of which 2.2 gigawatts were converted to signed ESAs in February; management said it is optimistic about converting “a portion” of the remaining 1.2 gigawatts to ESAs in the near term.
  • Illinois: 850 megawatts of construction agreements, Lyons said.

Lyons said Ameren expects to update sales forecasts for ESAs as milestones occur, including “customer project announcements, groundbreaking, and construction progress.” He added that the company hopes to see some public announcements and groundbreakings “in the second quarter.”

When asked about risks around zoning and ramp schedules, Lyons said that for the 2.2 gigawatts under ESA, “those sites…have been secured,” and that the company “feel[s] very good about those.” He said projects beyond those ESAs are in “various stages of getting approvals.”

On timing, Lyons said ramp rates are confidential, but with additional ESAs from the remaining 1.2 gigawatts of construction agreements, investors “could see some…movement in terms of sales” during the current five-year period, noting there is typically a construction period before data centers begin taking service.

Lyons also addressed how incremental growth could affect capital plans, saying that if sales ramp faster than the company’s planning assumption of 1.2 gigawatts by 2030, it represents upside “from the standpoint of sales and sales margins,” but would also require Ameren to evaluate generation needs. He said that within the next five years, Ameren would consider whether it could accelerate resources such as renewables and batteries, and would “take a look at fuel cells” as a possibility for dispatchable resources, while emphasizing it was “not a commitment.”

Generation buildout and regulatory filings

Lyons said Ameren is progressing toward delivering “more than 5 GW of new energy and capacity resources” planned to go into service through 2030. He highlighted that the 50-megawatt Bowling Green Energy Center was placed in service in March and that the company has begun final commissioning activities on the 300-megawatt Split Rail Solar project.

He also provided updates on gas and storage development. Ameren is advancing two 800-megawatt simple-cycle natural gas energy centers—Castle Bluff and Big Hollow—expected to enter service in 2027 and 2028, respectively, along with 400 megawatts of battery storage at Big Hollow. Lyons said construction is underway at Castle Bluff and that the first of four gas turbines was received ahead of schedule. For Big Hollow, contractors have mobilized and are preparing the site, with construction expected to begin “this quarter,” he said.

On regulatory approvals, Lyons said Ameren reached a stipulation and agreement with interveners for a certificate of convenience and necessity (CCN) for the 250-megawatt Reform Renewable Energy Center expected to be in service in 2028, noting that the agreement remains subject to Missouri Public Service Commission approval. He added Ameren expects to file additional CCN requests by the third quarter for approximately 3 gigawatts of new generation, primarily including the 2.1-gigawatt West Alton combined-cycle facility, as well as additional battery storage.

Group President Michael Moehn said Ameren has turbines under contract for its simple-cycle projects and that the company has EPC contracts in place. He said Ameren has executed a contract with Mitsubishi for the combined-cycle facility and has “a good line of sight” for delivery of power-island equipment in 2031. Moehn also said the company is working through labor needs, including forming a consortium with national construction companies and using a global engineering design firm.

Lyons said Ameren plans to file its next Missouri integrated resource plan (IRP) in September, calling it a “comprehensive update” that will incorporate evolving sales expectations, including ESA ramp rates and broader economic growth, and will outline a “reliable and affordable path forward” for generation resources.

Transmission, Illinois reconciliation, and financing

Lyons said significant transmission investment will be needed over time to support new large-load customers and connect new generation resources as regional demand grows, though he said potential investments would be incorporated into plans as opportunities mature. Ameren is also pursuing competitive transmission opportunities; Lyons said the company submitted bids in January for two competitive projects in Illinois and is evaluating two additional opportunities with bid submissions due by the end of May.

On Illinois regulatory matters, Singh said Ameren Illinois requested a $65 million revenue adjustment in April as part of the annual performance-based rate reconciliation under the electric distribution multi-year rate plan. He said an Illinois Commerce Commission decision is expected in December, with rates reflecting any approved adjustment effective in January 2027. Singh also said the company will engage stakeholders on a proposed 2028–2031 electric distribution grid investment plan, with an ICC decision expected by December and an associated rate filing to follow in the first quarter of 2027. In Missouri, Singh said Ameren expects to file its next electric rate review in mid-2026.

On financing, Singh said Ameren completed planned first-quarter debt issuances at Ameren Missouri and Ameren Parent and continues to target approximately $4 billion of equity issuances from 2026 through 2030. He said the company expects to issue about $600 million of equity—sold forward in May 2025 and representing about 6.4 million shares—near the end of 2026. For 2027 and beyond, Singh said Ameren has sold forward about $600 million of common stock so far in 2026 under its at-the-market program.

Singh also noted Ameren met with rating agencies and that S&P affirmed the company’s BBB+ credit rating and stable outlook in April. Lyons closed the call by emphasizing “robust and disciplined investment” across Ameren’s electric, natural gas, and transmission infrastructure to support reliability and growth.

About Ameren NYSE: AEE

Ameren Corporation NYSE: AEE is an integrated energy company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, that provides electric and natural gas delivery and related services in portions of Missouri and Illinois. The company operates regulated utility businesses that serve a broad mix of residential, commercial and industrial customers, and it participates in wholesale energy markets and transmission operations that support reliable service across its service territories.

Ameren's core activities include generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, distribution of natural gas, and the provision of customer energy solutions such as demand-side management and energy efficiency programs.

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