Citigroup Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) Stock Price

Key Points

• Citigroup cut its target on Okta from $100 to $87 and maintained a "neutral" rating, implying roughly a 10% upside from current levels.
• Okta beat Q4 EPS ($0.90 vs. $0.85 est.) and revenue ($761M, +11.6% YoY) and touted AI‑agent opportunities, but softer near‑term revenue guidance prompted analyst target cuts and a mixed market reaction despite an intraday 10.2% rally to $79.07.
• The board approved a $1.0 billion share buyback (about 6.8% of shares), even as insiders have sold shares recently and institutional ownership remains high (~86.6%).

Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA - Get Free Report) had its target price decreased by equities researchers at Citigroup from $100.00 to $87.00 in a research note issued on Thursday,Benzinga reports. The brokerage currently has a "neutral" rating on the stock. Citigroup's price target suggests a potential upside of 10.03% from the stock's current price.

Several other research firms have also recently weighed in on OKTA. DA Davidson reaffirmed a "buy" rating and set a $110.00 price objective on shares of Okta in a research report on Thursday. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Okta from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a research report on Wednesday, February 25th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut their price target on shares of Okta from $140.00 to $115.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a report on Monday, December 1st. Stifel Nicolaus reduced their price target on shares of Okta from $121.00 to $92.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday. Finally, Stephens lowered their price objective on shares of Okta from $120.00 to $95.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research report on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-five have assigned a Buy rating, eleven have given a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $103.03.

Okta Stock Up 10.2%

Shares of OKTA traded up $7.33 during midday trading on Thursday, reaching $79.07. 6,067,430 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 3,167,829. Okta has a twelve month low of $68.77 and a twelve month high of $127.57. The company has a market cap of $14.01 billion, a P/E ratio of 72.54, a PEG ratio of 2.81 and a beta of 0.79. The stock's 50 day simple moving average is $85.40 and its 200 day simple moving average is $87.51.

Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, March 4th. The company reported $0.90 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $0.85 by $0.05. The business had revenue of $761.00 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $749.87 million. Okta had a return on equity of 3.77% and a net margin of 6.87%.The firm's quarterly revenue was up 11.6% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the prior year, the business posted $0.78 earnings per share. Okta has set its FY 2027 guidance at 3.740-3.820 EPS and its Q1 2027 guidance at 0.840-0.860 EPS. As a group, analysts predict that Okta will post 0.42 earnings per share for the current year.

Okta announced that its board has approved a stock buyback program on Monday, January 5th that authorizes the company to repurchase $1.00 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization authorizes the company to purchase up to 6.8% of its shares through open market purchases. Shares repurchase programs are generally an indication that the company's management believes its stock is undervalued.

Insider Activity at Okta

In related news, CEO Todd Mckinnon sold 11,286 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, December 22nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $90.96, for a total value of $1,026,574.56. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink. Also, CFO Brett Tighe sold 10,000 shares of Okta stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, January 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $95.07, for a total value of $950,700.00. Following the sale, the chief financial officer directly owned 134,385 shares in the company, valued at approximately $12,775,981.95. The trade was a 6.93% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Insiders have sold 37,245 shares of company stock worth $3,385,624 over the last ninety days. Corporate insiders own 5.68% of the company's stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. Integrated Wealth Concepts LLC bought a new stake in Okta in the 1st quarter worth about $225,000. NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in shares of Okta by 853.4% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 5,530 shares of the company's stock valued at $582,000 after acquiring an additional 4,950 shares during the last quarter. Sivia Capital Partners LLC bought a new stake in shares of Okta in the second quarter worth approximately $244,000. Hantz Financial Services Inc. raised its holdings in shares of Okta by 572.5% during the second quarter. Hantz Financial Services Inc. now owns 538 shares of the company's stock valued at $54,000 after purchasing an additional 458 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Assetmark Inc. lifted its position in Okta by 5,770.0% during the second quarter. Assetmark Inc. now owns 587 shares of the company's stock valued at $59,000 after purchasing an additional 577 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 86.64% of the company's stock.

Okta News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Okta this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 beat and durable subscription growth — Okta reported Q4 revenue of $761M (up ~11.6% YoY) and EPS that topped estimates, driven by strong subscription adoption and improving profitability; this is the primary catalyst for the intraday rally. OKTA Shares Jump on Solid Q4 Earnings Beat, Revenues Increase Y/Y
• Positive Sentiment: Company highlights AI agents as a growth vector — management emphasized AI agent/security opportunities and new partnerships (e.g., PGA) that position Okta as identity infrastructure for agentic AI, supporting the longer-term story. Okta's stock rallies as momentum in AI agents fuels an earnings beat
• Neutral Sentiment: Broader cloud rally is lifting names including OKTA — sector strength today (WCLD and other cloud names) is amplifying Okta’s move alongside company‑specific results. Cloud stocks jump, head for best day in nearly a year despite broad market declines
• Neutral Sentiment: Wall Street still split but many firms kept buy/overweight ratings — several analysts reiterated buy stances citing AI/identity positioning even as they trimmed models, which keeps upside case intact for investors focused on long-term secular demand. Okta: Leveraging Identity as Core AI Security Infrastructure to Drive Durable Growth
• Negative Sentiment: Near‑term revenue guidance disappointed — Q1 revenue guide ($749M–$753M) came in slightly below Street expectations, and management warned revenue growth will slow, which is a key reason some investors reacted cautiously. Okta forecasts slowest revenue growth since IPO amid economic uncertainty
• Negative Sentiment: Analysts trimmed price targets en masse — multiple shops lowered targets (Piper Sandler, Deutsche Bank, Berenberg, Truist, etc.), creating headline risk and capping near‑term upside despite some retained buy ratings. Okta Posts Q4 Beat; Analysts Cut Price Targets For Early AI Agent 'Leader'
• Negative Sentiment: Mixed market reaction after-hours — some outlets noted a modest after‑hours dip as investors digested the softer near‑term guide and the slower growth narrative despite the beat. Okta beats Q4 estimates but shares dip on muted outlook

About Okta

Okta, Inc is a publicly traded provider of identity and access management solutions, headquartered in San Francisco, California. Founded in 2009 by Todd McKinnon and Frederic Kerrest, the company completed its initial public offering in April 2017. Under the leadership of McKinnon as chief executive officer and Kerrest as chief operating officer, Okta has grown into a leading vendor in the cybersecurity space, focusing on secure user authentication, single sign-on and lifecycle management for digital identities.

At the core of Okta's offering is the Okta Identity Cloud, a suite of cloud-native services that enable organizations to manage user access across web and mobile applications, on-premises systems and APIs.

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