Duke Energy Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

Duke Energy NYSE: DUK reported first-quarter 2026 results that management said reflected continued execution on infrastructure investment and accelerating economic development activity across its regulated footprint.

President and CEO Harry Sideris said the company delivered first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93, calling it “a strong start to the year.” Reported EPS was $1.97. Duke reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and reiterated its long-term 5% to 7% EPS growth target through 2030. Sideris added that the company is “more confident than ever” it can deliver in the top half of that long-term range beginning in 2028, when Duke expects faster growth tied to economic development projects secured under Electric Service Agreements (ESAs).

Customer affordability initiatives and utility combination approvals

Sideris emphasized affordability and rate impacts, stating Duke’s “rates are below the national average and have risen below the pace of inflation.” He highlighted two developments the company said would provide more than $5 billion of customer benefits.

• Tax credit monetization: Duke reached a multi-year agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean energy tax credits expected to be generated through 2028. Sideris said proceeds will flow back to customers “to support keeping rates as low as possible.”
• Carolina utility combination: Duke received regulatory approvals, including from FERC and North Carolina and South Carolina regulators, for the proposed combination of its two Carolina utilities. Management estimated customer savings of $2.3 billion through 2040 and said the company is working toward an effective date of Jan. 1, 2027.

On the tax credit transaction, CFO Brian Savoy said the agreement followed market testing over the past couple of years. He said Duke cannot disclose the counterparty, but described it as having a “healthy tax appetite.” Savoy said locking in a multi-year arrangement reduces annual “churn and effort” versus auctioning credits each year and allows Duke to “predetermine the set value for our customers.”

In response to a question about timing, Savoy said flow-back differs across jurisdictions and utilities, but Duke has been signaling a “four-year amortization, generally,” including in North Carolina. He added the tax credits being monetized are those Duke expected to earn from nuclear, solar, and battery investments, and said the agreement locks in the value through predetermined discounts.

First-quarter segment performance and storm-related costs

Savoy said Duke delivered “strong first quarter results,” with reported and adjusted EPS of $1.97 and $1.93, respectively, compared with $1.76 for both measures in the prior-year quarter.

Electric utilities and infrastructure contributed a $0.16 increase year over year, driven by infrastructure investments and favorable weather, Savoy said. He noted higher operations and maintenance (O&M) and depreciation partially offset those gains, reflecting a growing asset base. Cold temperatures increased usage, but Duke also incurred higher O&M responding to winter storms. Savoy said the company budgets for storms and has recovery mechanisms in place, characterizing the first-quarter impact as “largely timing,” while reiterating Duke’s target of flat O&M for the full year.

Gas utilities and infrastructure earnings were up $0.01 from last year, with contributions from riders and customer growth offset by higher depreciation. The “other” segment was essentially flat, Savoy said.

Data center ESAs expand, pipeline grows

Management again pointed to data center-driven load growth as a key long-term driver. Sideris said Duke signed an additional 2.7 gigawatts (GW) of ESAs with data center customers since the fourth-quarter call, bringing total executed agreements to about 7.6 GW. He added that nearly two-thirds of that total is already under construction.

Sideris said Duke has been working with policymakers and regulators to support economic development while protecting existing customers. He said Duke’s contracts include minimum demand provisions, credit support, refundable capital advances, and termination charges, and argued that incremental volumes can benefit all customers over time by spreading system costs across a larger base.

Savoy said the company’s “late-stage high confidence pipeline” now totals 15.4 GW, inclusive of signed ESAs, and Duke expects to convert additional prospects to ESAs over the next 12 months. He said construction is underway on the first 5 GW of new data centers and Duke is investing in “speed to power” capabilities, preparing the grid and executing a generation build “to grow together over time.”

On timing, Savoy said Duke expects these customers to begin taking energy as early as the second half of 2027 and into 2028, then ramp to full contracted load through the early 2030s. He added that the 2.7 GW signed in the first quarter, as well as additional signed projects, are expected to begin taking energy late in the five-year planning window and ramp into the early to mid-2030s.

In the Q&A, Sideris said Duke is seeing “an acceleration in interest” in its territories, citing North Carolina around Charlotte, Florida, and southern Indiana as areas drawing attention. He said being a vertically integrated utility can be a “one-stop shop” for hyperscalers and pointed to Duke’s experience with community engagement as projects navigate zoning and other local issues.

Regulatory, generation, and financing updates

Sideris said North Carolina rate cases for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress are proceeding on schedule, with intervener testimony due for Duke Energy Carolinas at the end of May. He told analysts Duke is open to settlement discussions after that milestone, while also saying the company believes it has “a strong case if we have to litigate it.” He said Duke has “other tools in our tool bag” to address affordability in stakeholder discussions, pointing to the customer savings initiatives announced.

In South Carolina, Sideris said Duke filed its initial Electric Rate Stabilization Adjustment in mid-March under legislation signed last May, describing it as an annual true-up process intended to reduce rate volatility. He also said Duke is in discussions across several states regarding tariffs and dockets aimed at ensuring large-load customers pay their “fair share,” and suggested tariffs could reinforce provisions already included in contracts.

On generation, Sideris said Duke plans to add 14 GW of generation over the next five years as part of an “all of the above strategy,” while also extending the lives of its nuclear fleet. He said the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the subsequent license renewal for the Robinson Nuclear Plant in April, calling it Duke’s second nuclear plant to reach that milestone, and said Duke intends to seek similar extensions for remaining reactors.

Sideris said the company’s gas generation program includes 5 GW under construction and 2.5 GW in development. He noted the South Carolina Commission approved Duke’s application for a 1.4 GW combined-cycle plant in Anderson County and said construction is expected to begin in 2027. He also said Duke implemented a construction work in progress (CWIP) rider in Indiana for the Cayuga combined-cycle plant, describing it as supporting affordability by reducing costs to customers while maintaining balance sheet strength.

On financing, Savoy said Duke received more than $5 billion of proceeds in March from the sale of the Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee business to Spire and the first tranche of Brookfield’s minority investment in Duke Energy Florida, which closed in early March. Sideris said that first tranche provided $2.8 billion in cash proceeds for a 9.2% interest in the Florida utility, and that the Piedmont Tennessee sale generated $2.5 billion. Management said the proceeds support the company’s credit profile and help fund its $103 billion capital plan.

Savoy also said Duke issued $1.5 billion of convertible senior notes at a 3% coupon and priced $300 million of equity under its at-the-market program that will settle in December 2027. He said the company remains on track to deliver 14.5% funds from operations (FFO) to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term.

In addition, Savoy noted Duke marked its “100th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend,” which he said reflects the company’s financial strength, regulatory execution, and disciplined long-term investments.

About Duke Energy NYSE: DUK

Duke Energy Corporation is a U.S.-based electric power holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company's core business is the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Duke Energy operates a mix of regulated electric utilities and non-regulated energy businesses, providing essential energy infrastructure and services across multiple states.

Its operating activities include owning and operating generation assets across a portfolio that encompasses nuclear, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric and an expanding array of renewable resources, as well as battery storage and grid modernization projects.

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