Erste Group Bank Forecasts Lower Earnings for Alibaba Group

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered Alibaba’s FY2027 EPS forecast to $5.66 from $5.84, below the broader consensus estimate of $6.31; it projects FY2028 EPS of $8.21.
• Despite mixed analyst revisions, Alibaba maintains a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with an average price target of $186.90, supported by Buy and Strong Buy recommendations from several firms.
• Alibaba’s shares opened at $127.94, while recent insider sales totaled about $70.8 million; institutional investors, however, own 13.47% of the company and several large holders increased their stakes.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA - Free Report) - Analysts at Erste Group Bank dropped their FY2027 earnings estimates for Alibaba Group in a research report issued on Wednesday, August 5th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now anticipates that the specialty retailer will post earnings per share of $5.66 for the year, down from their previous estimate of $5.84. The consensus estimate for Alibaba Group's current full-year earnings is $6.31 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Alibaba Group's FY2028 earnings at $8.21 EPS.

Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, March 31st. The specialty retailer reported $0.01 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter. The company had revenue of $35.30 billion during the quarter. Alibaba Group had a net margin of 10.31% and a return on equity of 4.76%.

Several other research analysts have also recently weighed in on the company. Barclays boosted their target price on Alibaba Group from $186.00 to $195.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a report on Thursday, May 14th. Nomura reduced their price objective on Alibaba Group from $207.00 to $178.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, June 25th. Zacks Research upgraded Alibaba Group from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Tuesday, June 2nd. Susquehanna boosted their price objective on Alibaba Group from $170.00 to $185.00 and gave the stock a "positive" rating in a research note on Friday, May 15th. Finally, Freedom Capital upgraded Alibaba Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a report on Friday, April 24th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, sixteen have given a Buy rating and five have assigned a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $186.90.

Alibaba Group Stock Down 3.3%

BABA stock opened at $127.94 on Wednesday. The company has a current ratio of 1.28, a quick ratio of 1.28 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $112.97 and a two-hundred day moving average of $130.71. Alibaba Group has a 12 month low of $91.99 and a 12 month high of $192.67. The company has a market cap of $306.69 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.01, a PEG ratio of 2.43 and a beta of 0.49.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in BABA. Capital World Investors grew its stake in shares of Alibaba Group by 7.7% in the fourth quarter. Capital World Investors now owns 6,505,165 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $953,527,000 after buying an additional 466,847 shares in the last quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. lifted its stake in Alibaba Group by 7,680.3% during the 4th quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 6,014,147 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $881,554,000 after acquiring an additional 5,936,847 shares in the last quarter. Fisher Asset Management LLC lifted its stake in Alibaba Group by 0.8% during the 4th quarter. Fisher Asset Management LLC now owns 5,335,894 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $782,135,000 after acquiring an additional 42,297 shares in the last quarter. Norges Bank purchased a new position in Alibaba Group during the 4th quarter valued at about $594,477,000. Finally, AMF Tjanstepension AB grew its position in Alibaba Group by 4.1% in the 1st quarter. AMF Tjanstepension AB now owns 2,206,634 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $276,844,000 after acquiring an additional 86,613 shares in the last quarter. 13.47% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Insider Buying and Selling at Alibaba Group

In other news, CEO Fan (Fj) Jiang sold 13,579 shares of the company's stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, June 25th. The shares were sold at an average price of $12.10, for a total value of $164,305.90. Following the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 556,617 shares in the company, valued at approximately $6,735,065.70. This represents a 2.38% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, President J. Michael Evans sold 720,000 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 29th. The stock was sold at an average price of $94.95, for a total transaction of $68,364,000.00. Following the transaction, the president directly owned 28,000 shares of the company's stock, valued at $2,658,600. The trade was a 96.26% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Over the last quarter, insiders sold 920,303 shares of company stock valued at $70,796,370. 12.50% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Alibaba Group News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Alibaba Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: AI monetization plans could support Alibaba’s growth outlook. Alibaba is testing a paid, US$30-per-year QwenWork subscription and plans to introduce a royalty model for businesses commercially deploying its open-weight Qwen3.8-Max model. These initiatives could help convert the company’s AI investments into recurring revenue. Alibaba tests paid AI appetite with QwenWork subscription Alibaba Qwen royalty model
• Positive Sentiment: Alibaba is highlighting lower-cost AI infrastructure. The company says its modular data-center design can be deployed in about 100 days and at roughly 10% lower cost, potentially improving the economics and speed of its cloud and AI expansion. Alibaba modular AI data centers
• Positive Sentiment: GF Securities reiterated a Buy rating on Alibaba, while a separate brokerage survey characterized the consensus view as “Moderate Buy.” GF Securities Buy rating
• Neutral Sentiment: Alo Yoga opened a flagship store on Alibaba’s Tmall platform as part of its expansion into China, adding a notable international brand to Alibaba’s retail ecosystem but offering limited near-term financial impact. Alo Yoga opens Tmall flagship
• Negative Sentiment: Multiple law firms are promoting a securities class action against Alibaba. The complaints cover investors who purchased securities from June 26, 2025, through June 24, 2026, and reportedly allege undisclosed Chinese military ties and fraudulent AI-distillation attacks. Investors seeking lead-plaintiff status face an October 5, 2026 deadline. The allegations have not been proven, but the litigation could increase costs, uncertainty and investor risk. Alibaba securities lawsuit alert Alibaba class action deadline
• Negative Sentiment: Broader pressure on Chinese stocks may also be weighing on BABA, reinforcing the stock-specific legal concerns. Chinese stocks market pressure

About Alibaba Group

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Chinese multinational conglomerate founded in 1999 in Hangzhou, China, by Jack Ma and a group of co‑founders. The company built its business around internet-based commerce and related services and has grown into one of the largest e-commerce and technology companies in the world. Alibaba completed a high‑profile initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014.

The company operates a portfolio of online marketplaces and platforms serving different customer segments: Alibaba.com for global and domestic B2B trade, Taobao for consumer-to-consumer shopping, and Tmall for brand and retailer storefronts targeted at Chinese consumers.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to contact@marketbeat.com.

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