Capital One Financial NYSE: COF CEO Richard Fairbank said the company continues to see consumer strength across its portfolio, with credit performance, spending trends and bank balances remaining resilient despite concerns about inflation, energy prices and broader economic uncertainty.
Speaking at an investor event, Fairbank said unemployment remains low, job creation recently rebounded and consumer spending has stayed strong. He added that average bank balances per person were modestly higher than a year earlier. Within Capital One’s portfolio, monthly delinquencies were consistent with seasonal patterns, while charge-offs performed better than seasonal expectations, aided by elevated recoveries.
Fairbank said consumer credit performance had generally improved through much of 2026 before recently stabilizing in line with seasonal trends. Spending strength was evident across the company’s credit spectrum, including among lower-income customers in its portfolio. However, he noted that Capital One’s underwriting practices mean it does not necessarily have visibility into the lowest-income consumers across the broader economy.
Auto lending remains competitive
Fairbank described auto lending as a highly competitive business in which dealers effectively solicit competing offers from lenders. He said Capital One does not pursue growth at the expense of underwriting standards, margins or product resilience.
That approach has caused the company’s auto-loan growth position to vary over time, Fairbank said, with Capital One at times near the bottom and at other times near the top of industry growth rankings. More recently, he said the company has generated strong growth while maintaining stable credit performance.
Capital One had warned during the pandemic that government stimulus and forbearance programs could artificially improve consumer credit scores. Fairbank said the company adjusted its underwriting to account for that effect, which constrained growth for a period. He said Capital One’s subsequent origination vintages have performed consistently with one another and with pre-pandemic performance, even as the broader industry experienced more credit volatility.
The company does not set formal growth targets for its businesses, Fairbank said. Instead, teams are expected to originate business that meets its standards for credit quality, margins and long-term durability.
Discover conversion proceeds toward 2027 completion
Fairbank said Discover credit-card originations moved entirely onto Capital One’s technology platform at the beginning of the current month. The migration of Discover’s existing card portfolio began with an initial wave in July and is expected to conclude with a final wave in January 2027.
He said Capital One’s modern technology stack has been important in managing what he called a complex integration, though some legacy vendor connections still add complexity. The broader integration is expected to be substantially complete by the middle of 2027, when remaining operating expense synergies are expected to reach a run rate.
Capital One has targeted $1.5 billion in operating expense synergies from the Discover transaction. Fairbank said roughly one-third had been achieved in the second quarter, while much of the remaining savings will be back-loaded because they depend on completing technology conversions.
Fairbank also addressed what Capital One has called the “brownout” in Discover’s credit-card loan portfolio, referring to its continuing decline. He attributed the reduction in part to Discover’s pullback in originations following credit challenges in 2023 and to Capital One’s decision to reduce lending around the edges to more indebted consumers.
While new Discover accounts are now being originated through Capital One’s platform, Fairbank cautioned that the benefits will take time to appear in total loan balances. Capital One expects to use its wider credit box, broader marketing reach and experience serving both lower-credit and higher-spending customers to create growth opportunities. Progress will first be reflected in a stabilization of the portfolio’s rate of decline before eventual growth, he said.
Brex seen as commercial payments expansion
Fairbank said Capital One remains enthusiastic about Brex approximately five months after completing its acquisition. He positioned Brex as part of Capital One’s broader ambition to operate as a payments company in addition to its lending and banking businesses.
Brex operates in corporate cards, accounts payable and employee spend management. Fairbank said Brex’s technology combines those functions into a single offering, rather than treating them as separate markets. Capital One is initially pursuing a “light integration” focused on essential systems while adding capabilities from Capital One, including its marketing channels, brand, small-business customer base and lower cost of funds.
He said the company has seen “promising green shoots” and eventually expects opportunities to connect Brex with Capital One’s existing small-business operations and travel business.
Investment, earnings and capital priorities
Fairbank said Capital One’s expected post-integration earnings power remains broadly in line with the return on tangible common equity outlook provided when the Discover acquisition was announced. He said a larger-than-expected Discover portfolio decline has weighed on loan growth, while stronger margins and credit performance have been favorable factors. The acquisitions of Brex and Hopper technology assets, along with continued technology and artificial intelligence investments, are also part of the company’s evolving investment agenda.
Capital One evaluates investments primarily through risk-adjusted internal-rate-of-return measures, Fairbank said, while also monitoring current-period financial performance. Jeff Norris, Capital One’s senior vice president of finance, said management focuses not only on new investments but also on efficiency across the rest of its expense base, including digital productivity gains.
With a common equity tier 1 ratio of 13.7%, Fairbank said Capital One believes its earnings power can support growth investments, a conservative capital position and significant shareholder capital returns. He said the company views excess capital as particularly valuable during downturns, when it can help the business withstand stress and pursue growth while competitors pull back.
About Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF)
Capital One Financial Corporation NYSE: COF is a diversified financial services company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Founded in 1994, the company initially built its business as a credit card issuer and has since expanded into consumer banking, commercial banking and payments.
Capital One offers a range of credit card products for consumers and businesses, along with deposit accounts, savings products, auto loans and other consumer lending services. Through its commercial banking operations, the company provides financing, treasury management and related services to commercial real estate clients, middle-market companies and other businesses.
Capital One primarily serves customers in the United States, with additional operations and financial services activities in Canada and the United Kingdom.
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