Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) Shares Gap Up on Earnings Beat

Key Points

• Earnings beat: FICO reported EPS of $12.50 (vs. $10.97 expected) and revenue of $691.7M (vs. $621.8M expected), a 38.7% year‑over‑year revenue increase, and set FY2026 EPS guidance at 40.45.
• $1.5 billion buyback and stock move: The board approved a $1.5B repurchase program (up to ~5.2% of shares), and the stock gapped up premarket (closed $1,010.50, opened $1,088.78) on the results.
• Market reaction is mixed but generally positive: analysts maintain mostly Buy/Moderate Buy ratings with varied price targets (average ~$1,719), while headlines note insider selling and some balance‑sheet/liability items for investors to monitor.

Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO - Get Free Report)'s share price gapped up prior to trading on Wednesday following a stronger than expected earnings report. The stock had previously closed at $1,010.50, but opened at $1,088.78. Fair Isaac shares last traded at $1,022.4960, with a volume of 79,582 shares changing hands.

The technology company reported $12.50 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $10.97 by $1.53. The firm had revenue of $691.68 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $621.81 million. Fair Isaac had a negative return on equity of 40.98% and a net margin of 31.89%.The firm's revenue was up 38.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned $7.81 EPS. Fair Isaac has set its FY 2026 guidance at 40.450-40.450 EPS.

Fair Isaac declared that its board has approved a stock repurchase program on Wednesday, February 25th that permits the company to buyback $1.50 billion in shares. This buyback authorization permits the technology company to buy up to 5.2% of its stock through open market purchases. Stock buyback programs are typically a sign that the company's board believes its shares are undervalued.

Fair Isaac News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Fair Isaac this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q2 results beat estimates — revenue grew ~38.7% to ~$692M and EPS came in well above last year, driving upside reaction from the market. Fair Isaac: Fiscal Q2 Earnings Snapshot
• Positive Sentiment: Company and sell‑side tone: FICO raised its full‑year outlook amid double‑digit revenue growth, which underpins the bullish case on continued momentum. FICO Raises FY Outlook Amid Double-Digit Revenue Growth
• Positive Sentiment: Macro/strategy narrative: major outlets flagged FICO as an AI‑services beneficiary, supporting a longer‑term growth story beyond the quarter. These 8 Services Stocks Are AI Winners, According to Goldman Sachs
• Neutral Sentiment: Guidance nuance — management signaled FY2026 revenue around the $2.45–2.5B area and set EPS guidance at 40.45 (slightly below some consensus), so investors are weighing beat vs. a marginal guidance gap. FICO signals FY2026 revenue of $2.45B as it shifts FICO Score 10T pricing to $0.99 plus $65 funding fee
• Neutral Sentiment: Valuation discussion: analysts and commentators are reassessing FICO after a sharp pullback and mixed signals from the quarter — debate centers on whether current multiples already price in slower growth risk. Reassessing Fair Isaac (FICO) Valuation After A Sharp Pullback And Mixed Earnings Multiple Signals
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst target moved lower but rating intact — Needham cut its price target (now $1,650) while keeping a Buy, signaling upside but more conservative near‑term expectations. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: Data/market color: FICO's UK credit‑card market report points to a post‑holiday spending rebound but ongoing affordability pressures that could affect lenders' behavior and data volumes over time. FICO UK Credit Card Market Report: February 2026
• Negative Sentiment: Insider selling and balance‑sheet notes: public filings show a string of insider sales and some year‑over‑year increases in reported liabilities; investors may view this as a governance/liquidity flag to monitor. Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Rises on Q2 2026 Earnings

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

Several equities analysts have recently commented on FICO shares. Bank of America started coverage on shares of Fair Isaac in a research report on Tuesday, February 17th. They set a "buy" rating and a $1,900.00 price target for the company. Barclays lowered their price target on shares of Fair Isaac from $2,400.00 to $1,950.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research report on Friday, April 10th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. decreased their price target on Fair Isaac from $1,825.00 to $1,325.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a research note on Tuesday, March 24th. Needham & Company LLC decreased their price target on Fair Isaac from $1,975.00 to $1,650.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group decreased their price target on Fair Isaac from $1,770.00 to $1,528.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, April 2nd. Ten analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and five have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $1,719.36.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other Fair Isaac news, Director Eva Manolis sold 520 shares of the stock in a transaction on Wednesday, February 25th. The stock was sold at an average price of $1,227.63, for a total transaction of $638,367.60. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 344 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $422,304.72. This trade represents a 60.19% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Also, Director Joanna Rees sold 358 shares of the stock in a transaction on Friday, February 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1,360.00, for a total value of $486,880.00. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 11,204 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $15,237,440. The trade was a 3.10% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Company insiders own 3.02% of the company's stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Fair Isaac

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Resonant Capital Advisors LLC boosted its stake in Fair Isaac by 9.1% during the 1st quarter. Resonant Capital Advisors LLC now owns 409 shares of the technology company's stock valued at $437,000 after purchasing an additional 34 shares in the last quarter. V Square Quantitative Management LLC boosted its stake in Fair Isaac by 8.9% during the 1st quarter. V Square Quantitative Management LLC now owns 659 shares of the technology company's stock valued at $704,000 after purchasing an additional 54 shares in the last quarter. QRG Capital Management Inc. boosted its stake in Fair Isaac by 30.7% during the 1st quarter. QRG Capital Management Inc. now owns 489 shares of the technology company's stock valued at $522,000 after purchasing an additional 115 shares in the last quarter. Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd boosted its stake in Fair Isaac by 759.6% during the 1st quarter. Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd now owns 9,146 shares of the technology company's stock valued at $9,764,000 after purchasing an additional 8,082 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Leonteq Securities AG boosted its stake in Fair Isaac by 32.4% during the 1st quarter. Leonteq Securities AG now owns 270 shares of the technology company's stock valued at $288,000 after purchasing an additional 66 shares in the last quarter. 85.75% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Fair Isaac Stock Performance

The stock has a market capitalization of $24.16 billion, a P/E ratio of 37.85, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.97 and a beta of 1.38. The business has a 50 day simple moving average of $1,157.65 and a 200-day simple moving average of $1,470.15.

About Fair Isaac

Fair Isaac Corporation, commonly known as FICO, is a data analytics and software company best known for its FICO Score, a widely used credit-scoring system that helps lenders assess consumer credit risk. Founded in 1956 by Bill Fair and Earl Isaac, the company has evolved from its origins in statistical credit scoring to a broader focus on predictive analytics, decision management and artificial intelligence-driven solutions for financial services and other industries. FICO is headquartered in San Jose, California, and operates globally, serving clients across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.

FICO's product portfolio centers on analytics and decisioning technologies.

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