Genius Sports Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• Q1 performance was strong, with Genius Sports reporting 31% group revenue growth and 21% adjusted EBITDA growth. Betting revenue rose 33% and media revenue increased 22%, supporting management’s view that the business is “reliable” and “compounding.”
• The Legend acquisition closed and was financed with an $825 million term loan, with management saying the deal should lift the 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin from 23% to 28%. Genius also trimmed the debt size slightly and said it remains focused on disciplined deleveraging.
• Management raised growth expectations for 2026 and sees new opportunities in prediction markets and media. Full-year guidance calls for $990 million to $1.01 billion in revenue and $270 million to $280 million in adjusted EBITDA, while products like Moment Engine and GeniusIQ/AI are expected to drive further margin expansion.

Genius Sports NYSE: GENI reported what management described as another quarter of balanced growth, with first-quarter 2026 group revenue up 31% and adjusted EBITDA up 21%, according to executives on the company’s earnings call.

CEO Mark Locke said the results reinforced the company’s view that its business model is “reliable” and “compounding,” citing growth across both betting and media. Betting revenue rose 33% in the quarter, while media revenue increased 22%.

Locke said Genius Sports continues to benefit from a diversified customer base of roughly 500 licensed sportsbook brands across regulated global markets. He noted that more than half of the company’s revenue is generated outside the United States and said net revenue retention remains in the 120% to 130% range across sportsbook customers.

“Each renewal is a pricing event,” Locke said, pointing to opportunities to sell additional content, products and geographies to existing customers.

Legend Acquisition Closes, Financing Completed

Management highlighted the closing of the company’s acquisition of Legend, which occurred the week before the call. Locke said integration is underway and described Legend as adding an “intent layer” to Genius Sports’ platform through owned environments where 118 million unique users engage with sports and iGaming, with more than two-thirds returning regularly.

CFO Bryan Castellani said Genius funded an $825 million Term Loan A at SOFR plus 350 basis points in connection with the closing. He said the terms were better than credit market conditions at the time the transaction was signed and below the cost of capital the company initially expected. Genius also chose to size the debt $25 million below the original structure, which Castellani said reflected confidence in free cash flow generation and a commitment to disciplined deleveraging.

Castellani said the combined company raises Genius’ expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin from 23% to 28%, pulling its long-term margin target forward by two years.

Updated 2026 Outlook

Genius Sports issued guidance reflecting the combined company beginning May 1. Castellani said the forecast remains in line with estimates provided in February.

• Second quarter 2026: Group revenue of approximately $185 million and adjusted EBITDA of $45 million, reflecting one month of standalone Genius Sports and two months of combined financials.
• Full year 2026: Group revenue of $990 million to $1.01 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $270 million to $280 million.
• Cash flow: Management expects the second quarter to mark the low point for cash flow due to normal seasonality and one-time acquisition expenses. In the second half, Genius expects the combined business to generate about $100 million of total cash flow, including interest expense and debt repayment.

Castellani said that second-half cash flow would represent roughly 50% to 55% conversion of the approximately $200 million in adjusted EBITDA expected during that period. He also said the company expects to move toward its previously stated 2028 target of at least 60% unlevered free cash flow conversion and transition to sustained positive GAAP net income in 2027.

Prediction Markets Seen as Emerging Opportunity

Locke said prediction markets represent a “meaningful new ecosystem” for Genius Sports, though he emphasized that the market remains in early stages. He said Genius is already generating revenue by onboarding several high-profile market makers that use the company’s low-latency data feeds.

Management said the company is approaching market maker agreements with flexibility, including short-term structures and varying economics as the U.S. market develops. Locke said liquidity, market breadth and regulatory change will influence how contracts evolve over time.

Executives also said the company sees additional opportunity from prediction market operators’ customer acquisition and marketing spend, especially after the Legend acquisition. Locke said the company is monitoring the regulatory environment closely and referenced movement by the CFTC toward official data. He said prediction markets will likely need to work closely with leagues and regulators to mature over the medium term.

When asked about the addressable market, Locke said Genius models major prediction market operators as comparable in size to top U.S. sportsbooks from a data revenue standpoint, with additional marketing opportunities around that base case.

Media Business Builds Around Moment Engine

Genius Sports also emphasized the growth of its media segment, particularly its Moment Engine product. Locke said the product identifies moments when fan engagement is likely to peak, including momentum shifts and comebacks, and connects those moments with high-value audiences in real time.

Locke said the Moment Engine is integrated with partners representing approximately 90% of the programmatic advertising market, including agencies, broadcasters, supply-side platforms and demand-side platforms. He said the product was live for events such as the Super Bowl and March Madness, with the NBA Finals and FIFA World Cup still ahead.

At its NewFront event in New York, Genius partnered with nearly 70 new advertisers, according to Locke. He also cited Samsung as an example of early traction, saying the company tested Genius’ self-serve connected TV product and increased spending by 220% from its test campaign to its most recent booking.

In response to analyst questions, Locke said the Moment Engine is already delivering revenue and being incorporated into customer workflows. He said Genius is already selling NFL advertising inventory and believes the product’s return-on-investment improvements for advertisers will support results during the upcoming season.

AI and GeniusIQ Cited as Margin Drivers

Locke said three areas are expected to accelerate margin expansion: Legend, GeniusIQ and AI. He described GeniusIQ as the company’s platform for capturing live game action, understanding fans, distributing data and powering use cases including officiating, coaching, betting, fan engagement and advertising.

He said leagues are shifting away from manual data capture toward automated AI-driven systems, citing Genius’ expanded relationship with Liga MX as an example involving officiating support, performance analytics, betting data and fan engagement.

Locke said GeniusIQ automation reduces operational overhead by automating data collection in venues where it is deployed. He said the company expects that automation to span its entire data rights portfolio by the end of next year. Internally, he said agentic AI has reduced feature development time by more than 50%.

Management also addressed several other topics during the call. Locke said Genius’ relationship with the NFL is locked in through Super Bowl 2030. On BetVision, he said the company is seeing strong results, including growth in global football. On capital allocation, management indicated that the current focus is on deleveraging following the Legend transaction.

Castellani said the quarter extended Genius Sports’ track record, while the Legend acquisition and financing validated the company’s model. Management said its current guidance does not yet include the four revenue synergies identified at the time of the Legend transaction, including customer cross-selling, monetization of combined audiences, scaling Legend’s technology across league and team partners, and distributing Genius data and products through Legend channels.

About Genius Sports NYSE: GENI

Genius Sports is a global sports technology company that specializes in collecting, analyzing and distributing real-time sports data and video streams. The firm provides official data feeds, live video streaming solutions and digital engagement tools to sports leagues, federations, broadcasters and betting operators. By integrating data directly from sporting events through its network of field officials and proprietary technology, Genius Sports ensures accuracy and integrity for partners who rely on up-to-the-second information.

The company’s product suite includes a cloud-based platform for data capture and distribution, an integrity services offering designed to identify and mitigate match-fixing risks, and a suite of commercial products that power odds creation, in-game betting markets and fan engagement experiences.

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