HC Wainwright Estimates BigBear.ai's Q3 Earnings (NYSE:BBAI)

Key Points

• HC Wainwright projects BigBear.ai will report Q3 2026 EPS of ($0.05 loss) and maintains a Buy rating with a $6.00 price target.
• BigBear.ai’s Q4 showed an EPS beat (reported ($0.01) vs. expected ($0.05)) but revenue missed at $27.3M, down 37.7% year‑over‑year, highlighting near‑term revenue weakness despite the EPS surprise.
• The company strengthened its liquidity (about $462M in cash and a ~90% reduction in total debt) and added recurring‑revenue assets via acquisitions, yet analysts trimmed targets (consensus $5.00) and sentiment turned cautious, driving a stock pullback.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI - Free Report) - Investment analysts at HC Wainwright issued their Q3 2026 earnings estimates for shares of BigBear.ai in a research report issued on Tuesday, March 3rd. HC Wainwright analyst S. Buck anticipates that the company will post earnings of ($0.05) per share for the quarter. HC Wainwright has a "Buy" rating and a $6.00 price objective on the stock. The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai's current full-year earnings is ($0.28) per share. HC Wainwright also issued estimates for BigBear.ai's Q4 2026 earnings at ($0.05) EPS and FY2026 earnings at ($0.21) EPS.

A number of other research firms also recently commented on BBAI. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. Wall Street Zen cut shares of BigBear.ai from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a research report on Saturday, January 10th. Finally, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price objective on BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a report on Tuesday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of "Hold" and an average target price of $5.00.

BigBear.ai Stock Performance

BigBear.ai stock opened at $3.83 on Thursday. BigBear.ai has a 52 week low of $2.36 and a 52 week high of $9.39. The company has a current ratio of 1.78, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16. The stock has a market cap of $1.82 billion, a P/E ratio of -3.83 and a beta of 3.49. The stock has a 50 day moving average of $5.12 and a 200-day moving average of $5.88.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.05) by $0.04. BigBear.ai had a negative return on equity of 18.22% and a negative net margin of 230.21%.The business had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $33.31 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted ($0.43) earnings per share. The company's revenue was down 37.7% compared to the same quarter last year.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On BigBear.ai

Several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd boosted its position in BigBear.ai by 77.1% during the 4th quarter. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd now owns 13,756 shares of the company's stock valued at $74,000 after purchasing an additional 5,987 shares during the period. Invesco Ltd. lifted its stake in BigBear.ai by 56.5% in the fourth quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 250,973 shares of the company's stock valued at $1,355,000 after buying an additional 90,612 shares during the last quarter. State of Tennessee Department of Treasury acquired a new position in shares of BigBear.ai during the fourth quarter valued at $149,000. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its position in shares of BigBear.ai by 3.4% during the fourth quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 124,239 shares of the company's stock worth $671,000 after acquiring an additional 4,073 shares during the last quarter. Finally, VARCOV Co. bought a new stake in BigBear.ai in the 4th quarter valued at about $240,000. 7.55% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

More BigBear.ai News

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Company strengthened its balance sheet — reported $462M in cash & investments and a ~90% reduction in total debt, improving liquidity and lowering refinancing risk; recent acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) add recurring revenue and federal-market access. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Strengthens Balance Sheet with 90% Debt Reduction and $462M in Cash
• Positive Sentiment: Institutional buyers and recent acquisitions create a potential catalyst — several outlets note rising institutional accumulation and management actions that trade dilution for a cleaner capital structure, which could support a rebound if revenue trends improve. BigBear.ai Stock Is Down Big, But Smart Money Is Quietly Buying
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 results were mixed — EPS beat consensus (reported ($0.01) vs expected ($0.05)) but revenue fell to $27.3M (miss) as Army program volume declined and revenue guidance of $135M–$165M for FY2026 was below street estimates, leaving execution questions despite the stronger balance sheet. BigBear.ai Revenues Slump in Q4: Temporary Dip or Deeper Issue?
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst reactions turned cautious — Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target (to $5) and moved neutral, and other firms trimmed targets (HC Wainwright lowered its target to $6 though it retained a Buy). Those cuts amplified selling pressure. Cantor Fitzgerald Issues Pessimistic Forecast for BigBear.ai NYSE: BBAI Stock Price
• Negative Sentiment: Shares pulled back sharply on the analyst actions and the revenue miss, trading notably lower on high volume after the release — selling reflects near-term growth concerns despite the balance-sheet improvements. BigBear.ai NYSE: BBAI Trading Down 7.1% After Analyst Downgrade

About BigBear.ai

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.

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