JPMorgan Chase & Co. Has Lowered Expectations for Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Stock Price

Key Points

• JPMorgan cut its price target on Mattel from $14.00 to $13.00 and maintains an underweight rating, implying about a 13.8% downside from the current share price.
• Mattel beat Q1 estimates (EPS -$0.20 vs. -$0.24; revenue $862M) and set FY2026 guidance of $1.27–$1.39 adjusted EPS, signaling revenue acceleration despite near‑term cost pressures.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed — the consensus is a Hold with an average target of $18.22, as some firms highlight long‑term upside and a $1.5B buyback while others cite margin and free‑cash‑flow concerns and have downgraded the stock.

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT - Get Free Report) had its target price dropped by stock analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $14.00 to $13.00 in a report released on Thursday,Benzinga reports. The brokerage presently has an "underweight" rating on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s price target suggests a potential downside of 13.79% from the company's current price.

Several other analysts have also commented on MAT. Weiss Ratings lowered Mattel from a "buy (b-)" rating to a "hold (c)" rating in a research note on Wednesday, March 4th. Citigroup cut Mattel from a "buy" rating to a "neutral" rating and cut their price objective for the company from $25.00 to $16.00 in a report on Wednesday, February 11th. Zacks Research raised shares of Mattel from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Monday, April 13th. Roth Mkm set a $16.00 target price on shares of Mattel in a research report on Wednesday, February 11th. Finally, Morgan Stanley set a $18.00 price target on shares of Mattel in a report on Wednesday, February 11th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have given a Buy rating, seven have assigned a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has an average rating of "Hold" and an average target price of $18.22.

Mattel Price Performance

NASDAQ:MAT traded up $0.19 during mid-day trading on Thursday, hitting $15.08. The company's stock had a trading volume of 8,235,991 shares, compared to its average volume of 5,126,624. The company has a market capitalization of $4.38 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.97 and a beta of 0.78. The company has a current ratio of 2.15, a quick ratio of 1.76 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04. Mattel has a fifty-two week low of $14.10 and a fifty-two week high of $22.48. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $15.37 and a 200-day moving average of $18.27.

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, April 29th. The company reported ($0.20) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.24) by $0.04. Mattel had a return on equity of 20.72% and a net margin of 7.44%.The company had revenue of $862.20 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $809.19 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted ($0.03) EPS. The company's revenue was up 4.3% compared to the same quarter last year. Mattel has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.270-1.390 EPS. As a group, equities analysts forecast that Mattel will post 1.3 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Institutional Trading of Mattel

Large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Cornerstone Planning Group LLC raised its holdings in shares of Mattel by 537.7% in the third quarter. Cornerstone Planning Group LLC now owns 1,352 shares of the company's stock valued at $25,000 after buying an additional 1,140 shares during the last quarter. SJS Investment Consulting Inc. grew its holdings in Mattel by 2,959.6% during the 1st quarter. SJS Investment Consulting Inc. now owns 1,744 shares of the company's stock worth $25,000 after acquiring an additional 1,687 shares during the last quarter. Quarry LP acquired a new stake in Mattel in the 3rd quarter valued at about $28,000. Los Angeles Capital Management LLC bought a new position in shares of Mattel in the fourth quarter worth about $31,000. Finally, Atlas Capital Advisors Inc. bought a new position in shares of Mattel in the fourth quarter worth about $36,000. Institutional investors own 97.15% of the company's stock.

Mattel News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Mattel this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 beat — Mattel reported net sales of $862M (up ~4%) and an EPS loss smaller than expected, with Vehicles/Hot Wheels cited as the growth driver. The beat underpins the rally as revenue and demand trends surprised to the upside. Mattel Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Vehicles-Led Net Sales
• Positive Sentiment: Company outlook/forecast — management raised/maintained FY2026 profit guidance (adjusted EPS $1.27–$1.39) and signaled continued top-line acceleration into Q2, giving investors confidence in forward earnings potential. Mattel tops quarterly sales estimates on steady toy demand, entertainment push
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic upside & buybacks — bullish analysis highlights Mattel’s shift to an IP-driven entertainment model, mobile/gaming expansion and a $1.5B buyback plan that could meaningfully reduce share count and lift per‑share metrics. This supports a constructive view on longer-term upside. Mattel: Time To Go Toy Shopping
• Positive Sentiment: New product momentum — collectible and specialty drops (K‑pop Demon Hunters blind‑box figures; new WWE Elite WrestleMania wave) help maintain retail relevance and drive niche, high-margin sales. Mattel Drops New KPop Demon Hunters Blind Box Figures
• Neutral Sentiment: He‑Man creator Roger Sweet died — memorial coverage ahead of the upcoming Masters of the Universe release may generate short-term publicity for Mattel’s IP, but the item is not a driver of fundamentals. He-Man creator Roger Sweet dies at 91
• Negative Sentiment: Margin pressure — company margins slipped in Q1 due to tariffs, FX and inflationary input costs; management says some tariff headwinds are easing but cost inflation (including oil) remains a concern for near-term margins. Mattel battles through tariff costs, Middle East ramifications better than anticipated
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst downgrade & FCF concerns — at least one analyst cut the rating to ‘hold,’ citing execution shortfalls, persistent margin weakness in segments (toddler) and a lowered free-cash-flow outlook, which tempers enthusiasm despite the headline beat. Mattel: Lackluster Execution Limits Upside (Rating Downgrade)

Mattel Company Profile

Mattel, Inc is a leading global toy company headquartered in El Segundo, California. Founded in 1945 by Harold “Matt” Matson and Elliot and Ruth Handler, the company has grown into a major player in the toy and family products industry. Mattel designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of toys, games and entertainment products under well-known brands, including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, American Girl, Thomas & Friends, UNO and Matchbox. In addition to its proprietary labels, Mattel holds licenses with global entertainment franchises, partnering with Disney, Warner Bros., WWE and other studios to create character-driven play experiences.

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