KeyCorp Weighs in on Murphy USA's Q1 Earnings (NYSE:MUSA)

Key Points

• KeyCorp rates Murphy USA Overweight with a $600 price target and forecasts Q1 EPS of $5.91, Q2 EPS of $8.76 and FY2026 EPS of $30.00.
• Murphy USA beat Q1 estimates, reporting $7.28 EPS (vs. $5.37 consensus) and $4.82B revenue, driven by higher fuel contribution (35.0 cents per gallon) and improved merchandise margins, while returning cash via ~169k share repurchases (~$70.9M) and a $0.63 quarterly dividend.
• Analyst sentiment has shifted positive (consensus "Moderate Buy"), but investors should watch the company's high leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.47) and recent insider selling (10,919 shares; ~$4.49M) as potential risks.

Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA - Free Report) - Analysts at KeyCorp issued their Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Murphy USA in a research report issued on Thursday, April 23rd. KeyCorp analyst B. Thomas forecasts that the specialty retailer will earn $5.91 per share for the quarter. KeyCorp has a "Overweight" rating and a $600.00 price target on the stock. The consensus estimate for Murphy USA's current full-year earnings is $29.55 per share. KeyCorp also issued estimates for Murphy USA's Q2 2026 earnings at $8.76 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $30.00 EPS.

Murphy USA (NYSE:MUSA - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, April 29th. The specialty retailer reported $7.28 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $5.37 by $1.91. The company had revenue of $4.82 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $4.70 billion. Murphy USA had a return on equity of 93.06% and a net margin of 2.81%.The company's quarterly revenue was up 6.5% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the business posted $2.63 EPS.

A number of other equities analysts also recently commented on the company. Wells Fargo & Company raised their price objective on Murphy USA from $400.00 to $450.00 and gave the stock an "equal weight" rating in a report on Tuesday, April 14th. Royal Bank Of Canada raised their price objective on Murphy USA from $510.00 to $517.00 and gave the stock a "sector perform" rating in a report on Thursday. Wall Street Zen upgraded Murphy USA from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating in a report on Saturday, March 28th. Bank of America upgraded Murphy USA from an "underperform" rating to a "neutral" rating and raised their price objective for the stock from $350.00 to $550.00 in a report on Thursday, April 23rd. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded Murphy USA from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a report on Tuesday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, three have issued a Buy rating and six have given a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Murphy USA presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $493.71.

Murphy USA Stock Performance

Murphy USA stock opened at $587.93 on Friday. The stock's 50-day moving average is $472.53 and its 200-day moving average is $422.92. The company has a market cap of $10.88 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.32, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.85 and a beta of 0.23. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.47, a current ratio of 0.80 and a quick ratio of 0.36. Murphy USA has a 12 month low of $345.23 and a 12 month high of $591.80.

Institutional Trading of Murphy USA

Several large investors have recently bought and sold shares of MUSA. MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB grew its position in Murphy USA by 82.4% in the fourth quarter. MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB now owns 62 shares of the specialty retailer's stock valued at $25,000 after acquiring an additional 28 shares in the last quarter. Huntington National Bank increased its holdings in Murphy USA by 106.7% during the 4th quarter. Huntington National Bank now owns 62 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $25,000 after purchasing an additional 32 shares during the last quarter. Ameriflex Group Inc. purchased a new stake in Murphy USA during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $26,000. AlphaQuest LLC increased its holdings in Murphy USA by 317.6% during the 3rd quarter. AlphaQuest LLC now owns 71 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $28,000 after purchasing an additional 54 shares during the last quarter. Finally, EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC increased its holdings in Murphy USA by 423.1% during the 2nd quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 68 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $28,000 after purchasing an additional 55 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 80.81% of the company's stock.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other Murphy USA news, SVP Scott G. Woodward sold 137 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, March 5th. The shares were sold at an average price of $422.44, for a total value of $57,874.28. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through the SEC website. Also, SVP Keith A. Emery sold 899 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, February 26th. The shares were sold at an average price of $382.53, for a total transaction of $343,894.47. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders have sold 10,919 shares of company stock valued at $4,490,690 over the last three months. Company insiders own 9.02% of the company's stock.

Murphy USA Announces Dividend

The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, March 5th. Shareholders of record on Monday, February 23rd were given a $0.63 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Monday, February 23rd. This represents a $2.52 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.4%. Murphy USA's dividend payout ratio (DPR) is 8.71%.

Murphy USA News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Murphy USA this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 financial beat — Murphy USA reported Q1 net income of $136.3M, $7.28 diluted EPS vs. consensus ~$5.37, and revenue of $4.82B (above estimates). The results materially exceeded Street expectations and are the primary driver of the share move. Business Wire Q1 Release
• Positive Sentiment: Improved fuel and in-store economics — Total fuel contribution rose to 35.0 cents per gallon (from 25.4 cpg a year ago) with retail gallons up, while merchandise contribution and unit margins improved, supporting higher profitability per transaction. QuiverQuant Analysis
• Positive Sentiment: Share repurchases and dividend — Management repurchased ~169k shares for ~$70.9M in the quarter and paid the $0.63 quarterly dividend, signaling continued cash return to shareholders. Business Wire Q1 Release
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst upgrades and estimate lifts — Zacks upgraded MUSA to a strong-buy and raised near-term EPS forecasts; some brokers (KeyCorp, others) have maintained or lifted targets (KeyCorp $600), lending support to sentiment. Zacks Coverage
• Neutral Sentiment: Earnings call / transcripts available — Management prepared remarks and the full earnings call transcript were posted (useful for listeners assessing cadence on margins, fuel outlook and capital allocation, but not new by themselves). Earnings Transcript (Yahoo) Earnings Call Transcript (Seeking Alpha)
• Negative Sentiment: Insider selling — Multiple executive-level sales were reported over recent months (no insider buys reported in same period), which some investors view as a cautionary signal on conviction. QuiverQuant Insider Summary
• Negative Sentiment: Balance-sheet/leverage considerations — The company shows relatively high debt-to-equity (background metrics), which could limit flexibility if fuel/macro conditions reverse; monitor leverage and cash flow conversion over coming quarters.

Murphy USA Company Profile

Murphy USA is a leading downstream marketer of gasoline, diesel and convenience store products in the United States. Headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, the company was originally established as part of Murphy Oil Corporation and was spun off as an independent public entity in 2013. Since its separation, Murphy USA has focused on retail fueling services and convenience offerings designed to deliver value and convenience to consumers.

The company's primary operations center on two retail formats.

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