Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Trading 12.6% Higher - Should You Buy?

Key Points

• Moderna shares jumped about 12.6% intraday to $54.65 after peer‑reviewed Phase 3 data showed mRNA‑1010 outperformed standard‑dose flu vaccines in adults 50+, and the company has filed in the U.S., EU, Canada and Australia with an FDA decision expected later this year, which could materially expand revenue beyond COVID vaccines.
• Analysts and fundamentals remain mixed—MarketBeat shows an average rating of "Reduce" with a $35.73 average price target—and Moderna recently missed EPS estimates (‑$3.40 vs. ‑$3.02) despite revenue rising 260% year‑over‑year, leaving valuation and execution questions.
• Market action is speculative: unusual bullish options activity (≈102,888 calls, ~+55% vs. typical) and notable intraday volatility, while insider sales have occurred, highlighting short‑term momentum but ongoing regulatory and execution risk.

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report)'s stock price traded up 12.6% during mid-day trading on Friday . The stock traded as high as $54.62 and last traded at $54.6510. 2,966,988 shares traded hands during trading, a decline of 69% from the average session volume of 9,494,051 shares. The stock had previously closed at $48.54.

Key Headlines Impacting Moderna

Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Peer‑reviewed Phase 3 data (P304) published showing mRNA‑1010 outperformed standard‑dose flu vaccines in adults 50+, strengthening the product’s commercial case and supporting regulatory filings already under review. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Moderna confirmed regulatory submissions in the U.S., EU, Canada and Australia; the FDA is reviewing the data with a decision expected later this year — approval would materially expand potential revenue beyond COVID vaccines. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Renewed interest in Moderna’s non‑flu pipeline — including advancement of a hantavirus mRNA program and recent news of a hantavirus outbreak — has driven near‑term demand and speculative buying. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Unusual bullish options activity: traders bought roughly 102,888 call contracts (about +55% vs. typical daily call volume), signaling speculative optimism or hedging ahead of regulatory news.
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst tweak: Brookline Capital Markets raised its FY2026 EPS forecast, narrowing losses per share, which supports a more constructive sell‑side view on near‑term guidance. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Extensive media coverage (NEJM, NBC, MedicalXpress, MSN, etc.) is amplifying the newsflow; that increases investor awareness but also invites short‑term volatility as markets parse commercial assumptions. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Intra‑day volatility has been notable — shares initially spiked on the publication then partially retraced as traders took profits and digested regulatory timing. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory risk remains: superior Phase 3 results improve odds but approvals are not guaranteed and timing (FDA decision later this year) leaves execution risk and potential for delays or label/indication limitations. Read More.

Analysts Set New Price Targets

Several research analysts have recently issued reports on the stock. The Goldman Sachs Group upped their price target on shares of Moderna from $43.00 to $49.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a report on Friday, May 1st. Jefferies Financial Group set a $37.00 price target on shares of Moderna and gave the stock a "hold" rating in a report on Tuesday, March 3rd. Citigroup reiterated a "neutral" rating on shares of Moderna in a report on Monday, February 16th. BMO Capital Markets upgraded shares of Moderna from a "market perform" rating to a "buy" rating in a report on Monday, January 12th. Finally, Royal Bank Of Canada upped their price target on shares of Moderna from $35.00 to $38.00 and gave the stock a "sector perform" rating in a report on Monday. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, twelve have assigned a Hold rating and five have given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, Moderna presently has an average rating of "Reduce" and an average price target of $35.73.

Moderna Stock Up 18.5%

The firm has a market capitalization of $22.81 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -6.98 and a beta of 1.05. The stock has a fifty day moving average of $51.70 and a two-hundred day moving average of $39.91. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, a current ratio of 2.41 and a quick ratio of 2.35.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Friday, May 1st. The company reported ($3.40) earnings per share for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($3.02) by ($0.38). The company had revenue of $389.00 million during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $236.37 million. Moderna had a negative net margin of 143.55% and a negative return on equity of 26.64%. The business's revenue for the quarter was up 260.2% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company earned ($2.52) earnings per share. Sell-side analysts anticipate that Moderna, Inc. will post -6.84 earnings per share for the current year.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other Moderna news, President Stephen Hoge sold 160,009 shares of the company's stock in a transaction on Monday, February 23rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $48.84, for a total transaction of $7,814,839.56. Following the sale, the president owned 1,457,427 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $71,180,734.68. This represents a 9.89% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Also, Director Abbas Hussain sold 5,682 shares of the company's stock in a transaction on Friday, May 1st. The shares were sold at an average price of $46.63, for a total transaction of $264,951.66. Following the sale, the director directly owned 12,066 shares in the company, valued at $562,637.58. This trade represents a 32.01% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Corporate insiders own 10.80% of the company's stock.

Institutional Trading of Moderna

Institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Canton Hathaway LLC bought a new stake in Moderna during the first quarter valued at $31,000. Assetmark Inc. boosted its position in Moderna by 35.1% during the first quarter. Assetmark Inc. now owns 801 shares of the company's stock valued at $41,000 after acquiring an additional 208 shares during the last quarter. MUFG Securities EMEA plc bought a new stake in Moderna during the second quarter valued at $28,000. Flagship Harbor Advisors LLC bought a new stake in Moderna during the fourth quarter valued at $31,000. Finally, Cromwell Holdings LLC boosted its position in Moderna by 39.7% during the fourth quarter. Cromwell Holdings LLC now owns 1,200 shares of the company's stock valued at $35,000 after acquiring an additional 341 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors own 75.33% of the company's stock.

About Moderna

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company's platform leverages synthetic mRNA to instruct cells to produce proteins that can prevent or treat diseases. Since its founding in 2010, Moderna has advanced from early-stage research into a broad pipeline of vaccine and therapeutic candidates designed to address infectious diseases, rare genetic disorders and chronic illnesses.

Moderna's flagship product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, which was the first of its kind to receive emergency use authorization and later full approval in multiple jurisdictions.

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