Northland Securities Predicts BigBear.ai Q1 Earnings

Key Points

• Northland Securities cut its Q1 2026 EPS estimate to ($0.06) from ($0.05) and now expects FY2026 EPS of ($0.17), versus a consensus full‑year loss of ($0.28).
• BigBear.ai's Q4 results were mixed — an EPS beat (‑$0.01 vs. ‑$0.05 expected) but a sharp revenue miss ($27.3M vs. $33.3M), with revenue down 37.7% year‑over‑year and FY2026 revenue guidance below street estimates, raising execution concerns.
• Analyst sentiment has turned cautious: several firms cut price targets or downgraded ratings (Cantor Fitzgerald to $5/neutral), and MarketBeat's consensus is a Hold with a $5 target as shares traded around $3.83.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI - Free Report) - Northland Securities reduced their Q1 2026 earnings estimates for BigBear.ai in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday, March 3rd. Northland Securities analyst M. Latimore now expects that the company will earn ($0.06) per share for the quarter, down from their previous forecast of ($0.05). The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai's current full-year earnings is ($0.28) per share. Northland Securities also issued estimates for BigBear.ai's Q2 2026 earnings at ($0.04) EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at ($0.03) EPS and FY2026 earnings at ($0.17) EPS.

Several other analysts also recently weighed in on the stock. Cantor Fitzgerald cut their price objective on shares of BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday. Wall Street Zen downgraded BigBear.ai from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a research report on Saturday, January 10th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. Finally, HC Wainwright lowered their price target on BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a report on Tuesday. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have given a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, BigBear.ai currently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $5.00.

BigBear.ai Price Performance

Shares of NYSE BBAI opened at $3.83 on Thursday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, a current ratio of 1.78 and a quick ratio of 3.13. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.82 billion, a PE ratio of -3.83 and a beta of 3.49. BigBear.ai has a 1-year low of $2.36 and a 1-year high of $9.39. The business's fifty day moving average price is $5.12 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $5.88.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.04. BigBear.ai had a negative return on equity of 18.22% and a negative net margin of 230.21%.The business had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $33.31 million. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned ($0.43) EPS. The business's quarterly revenue was down 37.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On BigBear.ai

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of BBAI. CWM LLC lifted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 237.5% during the third quarter. CWM LLC now owns 4,640 shares of the company's stock valued at $30,000 after purchasing an additional 3,265 shares during the last quarter. Hazlett Burt & Watson Inc. boosted its stake in BigBear.ai by 3,355.6% in the 3rd quarter. Hazlett Burt & Watson Inc. now owns 4,976 shares of the company's stock worth $32,000 after purchasing an additional 4,832 shares during the period. Root Financial Partners LLC grew its position in BigBear.ai by 617.5% during the 4th quarter. Root Financial Partners LLC now owns 5,381 shares of the company's stock worth $29,000 after purchasing an additional 4,631 shares in the last quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. raised its stake in BigBear.ai by 150.9% during the 4th quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. now owns 5,640 shares of the company's stock valued at $30,000 after purchasing an additional 3,392 shares during the period. Finally, Nisa Investment Advisors LLC lifted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 68.4% in the second quarter. Nisa Investment Advisors LLC now owns 6,222 shares of the company's stock valued at $42,000 after purchasing an additional 2,527 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 7.55% of the company's stock.

Key BigBear.ai News

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Company strengthened its balance sheet — reported $462M in cash & investments and a ~90% reduction in total debt, improving liquidity and lowering refinancing risk; recent acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) add recurring revenue and federal-market access. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Strengthens Balance Sheet with 90% Debt Reduction and $462M in Cash
• Positive Sentiment: Institutional buyers and recent acquisitions create a potential catalyst — several outlets note rising institutional accumulation and management actions that trade dilution for a cleaner capital structure, which could support a rebound if revenue trends improve. BigBear.ai Stock Is Down Big, But Smart Money Is Quietly Buying
• Neutral Sentiment: Q4 results were mixed — EPS beat consensus (reported ($0.01) vs expected ($0.05)) but revenue fell to $27.3M (miss) as Army program volume declined and revenue guidance of $135M–$165M for FY2026 was below street estimates, leaving execution questions despite the stronger balance sheet. BigBear.ai Revenues Slump in Q4: Temporary Dip or Deeper Issue?
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst reactions turned cautious — Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target (to $5) and moved neutral, and other firms trimmed targets (HC Wainwright lowered its target to $6 though it retained a Buy). Those cuts amplified selling pressure. Cantor Fitzgerald Issues Pessimistic Forecast for BigBear.ai NYSE: BBAI Stock Price
• Negative Sentiment: Shares pulled back sharply on the analyst actions and the revenue miss, trading notably lower on high volume after the release — selling reflects near-term growth concerns despite the balance-sheet improvements. BigBear.ai NYSE: BBAI Trading Down 7.1% After Analyst Downgrade

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.

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