Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Up 12.9% After Strong Earnings

Key Points

• Novavax shares jumped 12.9% after Q1 results where EPS of ($0.06) beat the consensus (−$0.25) and revenue of $118.9M topped estimates of about $78.3M.
• The upside was driven by high‑margin licensing and milestone payments (including a Matrix‑M license with Pfizer), but product sales plunged roughly 79% YoY and management guided FY‑2026 revenue to $230–$270M, well below the street’s ~ $388M estimate, highlighting demand and sustainability risks.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed — the MarketBeat consensus is a Hold with a $11.88 target, even as several firms keep or raise Buy ratings, and institutional investors have recently increased holdings (institutional ownership ~53%).

Shares of Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX - Get Free Report) shot up 12.9% during mid-day trading on Wednesday following a stronger than expected earnings report. The stock traded as high as $9.19 and last traded at $9.1450. 6,404,308 shares traded hands during trading, an increase of 39% from the average session volume of 4,603,849 shares. The stock had previously closed at $8.10.

The biopharmaceutical company reported ($0.06) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.25) by $0.19. The firm had revenue of $118.90 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $78.32 million. Novavax had a net margin of 39.19% and a negative return on equity of 673.17%. Novavax's quarterly revenue was down 79.0% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the firm posted $2.93 EPS.

Key Headlines Impacting Novavax

Here are the key news stories impacting Novavax this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 beats: Novavax reported roughly $140M in Q1 revenue and a GAAP loss of $0.06 per share, beating consensus on both revenue and EPS (consensus loss wider). Investors focused on the upside surprise. Yahoo: Novavax Surprises With Strong Q1
• Positive Sentiment: High‑margin licensing and milestone revenue: The quarter was supported by milestone payments and licensing deals (including a January non‑exclusive Matrix‑M license with Pfizer and multiple MTAs with large pharma and oncology partners), which helped offset softer product demand. Reuters: Novavax beats Q1 revenue estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Pipeline/clinical positives: Sanofi’s COMPARE study reinforced Nuvaxovid’s favorable reactogenicity vs. a competitor, and Novavax flagged its C. difficile vaccine candidate as prioritized with potential to enter the clinic as soon as 2027—both supportive for long‑term upside. PR Newswire: Q1 Results & Highlights
• Neutral Sentiment: Corporate updates: Novavax reiterated its 2026 revenue framework and combined R&D & SG&A guidance while releasing a slide deck and press materials for the quarter—useful for modeling but not an immediate catalyst. Q1 Press Release / Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: Lower FY‑2026 revenue guide vs. Street: The company updated its FY‑2026 revenue guidance to about $230M–$270M, well below the ~$388M consensus, which presents downside risk to near‑term expectations and valuation.
• Negative Sentiment: Steep YoY sales decline and demand risk: Reported product sales are down roughly 79% year‑over‑year, reflecting weaker COVID vaccine demand—underscoring reliance on one‑time milestones and licensing rather than recurring product revenue. Yahoo: Q1 Financial Results

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

NVAX has been the subject of a number of analyst reports. Wall Street Zen upgraded Novavax from a "sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Saturday, February 28th. Weiss Ratings upgraded Novavax from a "sell (d+)" rating to a "hold (c-)" rating in a research report on Thursday, March 12th. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Novavax in a research report on Thursday, March 12th. BTIG Research reiterated a "buy" rating and set a $19.00 price target on shares of Novavax in a research report on Tuesday, January 20th. Finally, HC Wainwright boosted their price target on Novavax from $11.00 to $16.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research report on Friday, February 27th. Five analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and three have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Novavax presently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $11.88.

Institutional Trading of Novavax

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in NVAX. AQR Capital Management LLC raised its position in shares of Novavax by 95.2% during the 1st quarter. AQR Capital Management LLC now owns 44,427 shares of the biopharmaceutical company's stock worth $285,000 after buying an additional 21,663 shares in the last quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. raised its position in shares of Novavax by 2.7% during the 1st quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 104,562 shares of the biopharmaceutical company's stock worth $678,000 after buying an additional 2,750 shares in the last quarter. Caxton Associates LLP bought a new stake in shares of Novavax during the 1st quarter worth about $158,000. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC raised its position in shares of Novavax by 16.4% during the 1st quarter. UBS AM A Distinct Business Unit of UBS Asset Management Americas LLC now owns 312,789 shares of the biopharmaceutical company's stock worth $2,005,000 after buying an additional 44,105 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Strs Ohio bought a new stake in shares of Novavax in the 1st quarter worth approximately $167,000. 53.04% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Novavax Trading Up 13.0%

The business's fifty day moving average is $9.06 and its 200 day moving average is $8.19. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.50 billion, a P/E ratio of 3.79 and a beta of 2.37.

Novavax Company Profile

Novavax, Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland, that specializes in the discovery, development and commercialization of next-generation vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. Founded in 1987, the company has built a platform based on recombinant nanoparticle technology and its proprietary Matrix-M™ adjuvant to enhance immune responses.

The company's lead product is NVX-CoV2373, a protein-based vaccine designed to elicit a robust immune response against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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