Pembina Pipeline NYSE: PBA reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of CAD 489 million and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately CAD 1.075 billion, along with adjusted cash flow from operating activities of CAD 731 million, or CAD 1.26 per share, management said during the company’s quarterly results call.
For the full year, Pembina posted earnings of CAD 1.694 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 4.289 billion. The company also reported full-year adjusted cash flow from operating activities of CAD 2.854 billion, or CAD 4.91 per share. CEO Scott Burrows said Pembina achieved record annual volumes across its pipelines and facilities divisions, representing a 3% increase versus 2024.
Quarterly results and key drivers
CFO Cameron Goldade said fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA declined CAD 179 million, or 14%, from the prior-year period. He attributed the year-over-year change primarily to a CAD 118 million lower contribution from marketing and new ventures, the impact of a new toll structure and revenue-sharing mechanism on the Alliance Pipeline, and a CAD 37 million period-specific capital recovery that benefited fourth-quarter 2024 results but did not repeat in 2025. Those items were partially offset by volume growth and performance in the pipelines and facilities divisions.
Goldade outlined key quarter-over-quarter drivers by segment. In pipelines, he cited higher volumes on the Peace Pipeline system and lower operating expense on the Goshen Pipeline, offset by lower revenue on the Canadian portion of the Alliance Pipeline due to reduced long-term firm tolls and the new revenue-sharing mechanism. He also pointed to lower revenue on certain pipeline assets due to capital recoveries recognized in the fourth quarter of 2024 and lower interruptible volumes on Goshen because of narrower condensate price differentials.
In facilities, Goldade said results reflected lower revenue tied to prior-year capital recoveries on certain PGI assets and higher operating expenses, offset by higher contribution primarily from higher volumes and the impact of acquiring a 50% working interest in Whitecap’s Kaybob complex in the fourth quarter of 2024.
In marketing and new ventures, results were affected by narrower NGL frac spreads, partially offset by realized gains on NGL-based derivatives and lower realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives due to lower volumes and narrower price spreads. Corporate results declined from the prior period due to higher long-term incentive costs, partially offset by lower non-compensation-related expenses.
Total volumes in the pipelines and facilities divisions were 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter, up 1% year over year. Higher pipeline volumes were driven by higher volumes on the Peace Pipeline system, higher AEGS volumes as the year-ago quarter was impacted by third-party outages, and higher contracted volumes on the Nipisi Pipeline. Those gains were partially offset by lower interruptible volumes on the Goshen Pipeline, as well as the sale of the north segment of the Western Pipeline in the third quarter of 2025.
Project execution and 2026 outlook
Burrows highlighted several construction and growth initiatives, saying the RFS IV propane-plus fractionator expansion at Redwater, the Wapiti Natural Gas Processing Expansion, and the K3 Cogeneration Facility were trending on time and on or under budget. The Wapiti Expansion and K3 cogeneration project are in commissioning and are expected to enter service “in the next few weeks,” while RFS IV is expected online in the second quarter.
Goldade reiterated previously announced 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of CAD 4.125 billion to CAD 4.425 billion. He said the midpoint implies fee-based Adjusted EBITDA per share compound annual growth of approximately 5% from 2023 to 2026, consistent with a target the company discussed at its 2024 investor day.
Pembina expects its 2026 year-end proportionally consolidated debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio to be about 3.7x to 4.0x, or 3.4x to 3.7x excluding Cedar LNG construction debt. Goldade said 2026 is expected to be the peak year for the leverage ratio, given Cedar LNG spending, with leverage expected to move back toward the lower end of the company’s 3.5x to 4.25x target range as projects enter service and Cedar spending declines after 2026.
Contracting updates and pipeline expansions
Management emphasized recontracting activity and its impact on asset utilization and cash flow stability. Burrows said Pembina renewed existing contracts and signed incremental new contracts totaling more than 200,000 barrels per day of conventional pipeline transportation capacity in 2025, including recontracting substantially all capacity available for renewal on the Peace Pipeline system under contracts expiring in 2025 and 2026.
Pembina also extended Alliance Pipeline’s contractual profile during a toll review, with shippers electing a new 10-year toll option on about 96% of available capacity, Burrows said. The company also contracted the remaining capacity on the 100,000 barrels per day Nipisi Pipeline, which was reactivated in 2023, and management said it is now focused on opportunities to increase egress capacity in response to customer demand.
Burrows discussed a series of conventional pipeline expansions aimed at condensate and NGL transportation demand, noting the company previously sanctioned the Fox Creek to Namao expansion of the Peace Pipeline system (adding roughly 70,000 barrels per day of market delivery capacity). He added that Pembina announced two additional Northeast British Columbia pipeline expansions: Birch to Taylor and Taylor to Gordondale. Collectively, the three expansions represent CAD 625 million of investment, management said.
During the Q&A, Pembina said Taylor-to-Gordondale will ultimately be needed, but management described a “capital light” approach for an initial phase based on optimization work with operations and engineering teams, allowing capital deployment as customers grow. Management also said Birch-to-Taylor is designed to grow condensate and C3+ capacity, with a focus on cost and safety execution rather than being “schedule-driven.”
On Alliance short-haul expansion, management said it continues to see strong demand in Alberta’s Industrial Heartland and expects an announcement “fairly shortly,” with only a few days left in the quarter at the time of the call.
LNG, exports, and “value chain” extensions
Pembina said it advanced the Cedar LNG project, reporting that construction of the floating LNG vessel was more than 35% complete, with significant progress on onshore construction as well. Burrows said the company completed the remarketing of its 1.5 million tons per year of Cedar LNG capacity by signing long-term agreements with PETRONAS and Ovintiv, which management said increased Pembina’s expected financial contribution and validated demand for Canadian West Coast LNG.
Separately, Pembina highlighted steps to enhance propane export capabilities, including a new 30,000 barrel per day LPG export agreement with AltaGas at its West Coast terminals and the sanctioning of the Prince Rupert Terminal Optimization Project. Burrows said the moves ensured access to 50,000 barrels per day of propane export capacity to premium markets, including Asia.
On potential involvement in LNG Canada asset monetizations referenced in media reports, management said it is not currently participating and that Pembina does not want to be a passive investor. Management said the company has positioned Cedar to potentially take incremental gas, but any further expansion would depend on gas supply and broader decisions by LNG Canada’s owners as they focus on commissioning Phase 1 and engineering Phase 2.
On growth beyond its legacy business, Pembina provided updates on the Greenlight Electricity Centre joint venture with Kineticor. Management said it secured a 907 MW AESO grid allocation (subsequently assigned to the potential customer), completed a land sale agreement with the customer, and ensured turbine availability. The company said it is targeting a final investment decision in the second quarter of 2026, with workstreams focused on commercial negotiations, regulatory progress, and engineering/FEED. Management characterized the commercial structure as a long-term contract with “midstream-like attributes” and noted integration potential with Pembina’s broader Alberta Industrial Heartland footprint.
Elsewhere, management addressed Dow’s Path to Zero timeline update, saying the revised timing has allowed Pembina to reassess the most capital-efficient infrastructure options to meet its commitment to supply 50,000 barrels per day of ethane, though it did not provide additional details.
Pembina said it plans to host a webcast and conference call on April 7, where the executive team will provide a general business update and long-term outlook. CFO Goldade said the timing is intended to provide investors with more granularity and “concreteness” around the build-up supporting longer-term guidance.
About Pembina Pipeline NYSE: PBA
Pembina Pipeline Corporation NYSE: PBA is a North American energy infrastructure company that develops, owns and operates midstream assets that transport, store and process hydrocarbons. Its core business focuses on the transportation of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensate, along with gas processing, fractionation, storage and related marketing services. Pembina serves producers, refiners and other energy companies by providing pipeline capacity, terminal services and midstream solutions that link upstream production to downstream markets and export facilities.
The company's asset base is concentrated in Western Canada, including major operations in Alberta and British Columbia, and it also has operations and commercial activities that extend into the United States.
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