Research Analysts Offer Predictions for AAL Q1 Earnings

Key Points

• Zacks projects AAL will report a Q1 2026 loss of -$0.47 per share and models FY2026 EPS of $0.84, while American Airlines' own guidance for Q1 2026 is -$0.50 to -$0.10 and FY2026 guidance is $1.70–$2.70.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed with a consensus "Hold" rating and a $15.09 target after recent divergence in broker actions (several price‑target cuts and some upgrades).
• Shares trade near $12.27 with an $8.1B market cap, but elevated risks include a ~32% jump in short interest and active merger rumors with United that could boost volatility and sentiment swings.

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL - Free Report) - Zacks Research issued their Q1 2026 earnings estimates for shares of American Airlines Group in a research report issued to clients and investors on Wednesday, April 15th. Zacks Research analyst Team expects that the airline will post earnings of ($0.47) per share for the quarter. The consensus estimate for American Airlines Group's current full-year earnings is $2.42 per share. Zacks Research also issued estimates for American Airlines Group's Q2 2026 earnings at $0.69 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $0.15 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.48 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $0.84 EPS, Q1 2027 earnings at $0.68 EPS, Q2 2027 earnings at $0.35 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $0.17 EPS, Q4 2027 earnings at $0.43 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $1.64 EPS.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, January 27th. The airline reported $0.16 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.38 by ($0.22). The company had revenue of $14 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $14.12 billion. American Airlines Group had a net margin of 0.20% and a negative return on equity of 5.90%. The firm's revenue for the quarter was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter last year, the business posted $0.86 EPS. American Airlines Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at -0.500--0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 1.700-2.700 EPS.

A number of other analysts also recently issued reports on AAL. Argus raised American Airlines Group to a "hold" rating in a report on Wednesday, January 28th. Citigroup lowered their target price on American Airlines Group from $21.00 to $14.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, March 20th. Susquehanna raised shares of American Airlines Group from a "neutral" rating to a "positive" rating and increased their price target for the stock from $14.00 to $20.00 in a report on Friday, January 9th. Cantor Fitzgerald set a $17.00 target price on American Airlines Group in a report on Friday, January 30th. Finally, TD Cowen lowered their price target on American Airlines Group from $17.00 to $13.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a report on Monday, March 9th. Six investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, nine have given a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $15.09.

American Airlines Group Stock Up 0.8%

American Airlines Group stock opened at $12.27 on Friday. The firm has a market cap of $8.10 billion, a PE ratio of 72.18 and a beta of 1.25. The company's 50 day moving average is $12.04 and its two-hundred day moving average is $13.23. American Airlines Group has a 52-week low of $8.96 and a 52-week high of $16.50.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Root Financial Partners LLC purchased a new position in shares of American Airlines Group in the third quarter valued at $30,000. West Branch Capital LLC bought a new stake in shares of American Airlines Group in the 4th quarter valued at approximately $31,000. MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB raised its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 102.0% during the fourth quarter. MassMutual Private Wealth & Trust FSB now owns 2,353 shares of the airline's stock worth $36,000 after purchasing an additional 1,188 shares during the period. Guerra Advisors Inc acquired a new stake in shares of American Airlines Group during the third quarter worth $37,000. Finally, UMB Bank n.a. lifted its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 845.1% in the 3rd quarter. UMB Bank n.a. now owns 3,251 shares of the airline's stock worth $37,000 after buying an additional 2,907 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 52.44% of the company's stock.

Key Stories Impacting American Airlines Group

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Merger rumors between American and United are circulating again; such consolidation talk can lift expectations for cost synergies, route rationalization and higher long-term pricing power for surviving carriers. Sky-High Stakes: United and American Merger Rumors
• Positive Sentiment: Zacks raised its FY2028 EPS view (now $3.57), signaling some analysts see better longer‑term profitability, which can support a higher valuation if execution and demand remain strong. Will American Airlines (AAL) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know
• Neutral Sentiment: Unusually large options volume has shown up in AAL, indicating elevated trader activity and potential for higher short-term volatility (could be directional or hedging). Monitor open interest and put/call skew for conviction. American Airlines Group Sees Unusually Large Options Volume NASDAQ: AAL
• Neutral Sentiment: Coverage pieces and intraday write-ups are rehashing the same drivers (earnings, shorts, merger rumors) and may be amplifying retail flows; these stories can increase volume but don't change fundamentals by themselves. What's going on with American Airlines stock Thursday?
• Negative Sentiment: Short interest jumped ~32.1% in March — a material increase in bearish positioning that can pressure the stock and raise downside risk if negative catalysts (earnings, guidance) appear. American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ: AAL Short Interest Up 32.1% in March
• Negative Sentiment: Analysts (Zacks/Yahoo coverage) flag that AAL lacks the two key ingredients for an earnings beat next week and may report negative/underwhelming results; at the same time, Zacks trimmed its near‑term Q1 EPS view — a short‑term headwind for the share price. Will American Airlines (AAL) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world's largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.

The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.

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