Schneider National NYSE: SNDR executives said they are seeing early signs of a freight upcycle taking hold, driven largely by supply reductions and improving cycle indicators, even as the company reported year-over-year declines in first-quarter profitability amid disruptive weather and fuel volatility.
Management cites supply rationalization and improving indicators
President and CEO Mark Rourke said the “stress in the market over the last several months is a direct reflection of structural supply rationalization,” adding that the company believes “this upcycle has now gained its foothold.” He said Schneider faced headwinds from “challenging weather and fuel volatility,” but mitigated impacts through cost and productivity initiatives, investments in service capabilities, and a “disciplined approach to customer allocation events.”
EVP and Group President of Transportation and Logistics Jim Filter attributed tighter conditions after winter storms to capacity attrition over multiple quarters. He pointed to regulatory enforcement and compliance actions as catalysts, including efforts addressing “non-compliant capacity,” such as “curtailing non-domicile CDLs,” enforcing “English language proficiency,” removing “CDL mills,” and targeting electronic logging devices “that enable tampering.”
Filter said Schneider expects additional capacity to leave the market, with fuel cost inflation and upcoming Roadcheck inspections cited as potential catalysts. He also said the company believes “we will see more supply exit in totality than what was removed by the 2017 ELD mandate,” while restricting the “funnel of new entrants.”
On demand, Filter described first-quarter volumes as “a tale of two halves,” with weather disruptions early in the quarter followed by increased volume as customers dealt with supply chain stress. He said macro uncertainty has increased amid “rising inflation expectations” and “diminished prospects for additional rate cuts,” which could add demand risk later in the year. Still, he said several industry indicators “flashed green” in the first quarter, and that trends seen in March “have persisted into April,” including spot market strength, traction in rate recovery, and “volume retention in our allocation events.”
First-quarter results reflect weather, fuel volatility, and cost actions
EVP and CFO Darrell Campbell reported that first-quarter enterprise revenues excluding fuel surcharge were $1.2 billion, down 1% from a year earlier. Adjusted income from operations was $35 million, down 21% year over year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.12 versus $0.16 in the prior-year period. Campbell said results reflected execution across the portfolio and the company’s ability to capitalize on commercial opportunities, which helped offset storms and fuel volatility.
Campbell highlighted progress on the company’s $40 million cost savings initiatives, including “additional headcount actions” and “discipline execution on our current system integration synergies.” He also said net CapEx was $45 million compared with $97 million a year ago due to timing of equipment purchases, which contributed to a $54 million year-over-year increase in free cash flow.
Segment performance: Truckload improves productivity; Intermodal extends load growth; Logistics rebounds
In Truckload, revenues excluding fuel surcharge were $618 million, up 1% year over year. Campbell said growth was driven by improvements in revenue per truck per week. Network revenues increased 4% year over year, supported by productivity and price, with revenue per truck per week up 7% year over year and up 2% sequentially, which he noted is atypical for the first quarter. Truck count declined, which management attributed to asset efficiency efforts and “growing driver scarcity.”
Truckload operating income was $20 million, down 20% year over year, and the operating ratio was 96.7%, up 80 basis points. Campbell said maintenance and fuel costs pressured earnings, and gain on sale was lower due to delayed equipment disposal.
Intermodal revenues excluding fuel surcharge were $254 million, down 3% year over year, with revenue per order down 4% due in part to lower length of haul. Campbell said volumes grew year over year despite a difficult comparison tied to last year’s inventory pull-forward, marking the “eighth consecutive quarter of load growth.” Intermodal operating income fell 21% to $11 million, and the operating ratio was 95.7% versus 94.7% last year, reflecting weather-related maintenance costs partially offset by cost actions including lower rail repositioning costs and “AI-driven headcount actions.”
Logistics revenues excluding fuel surcharge were $312 million, down 6% year over year, with lower volume partly offset by higher revenue per order. Income from operations was $7 million, down $2 million year over year, and the operating ratio was 97.9%. Campbell said results reflected improved net revenue per order, supported by “strong spot and premium project business” and productivity gains.
Pricing outlook: Network renewals expected mid- to high-single digits; Dedicated focused on productivity
Rourke said Schneider’s Network spot exposure “grew to nearly double its historical levels,” giving the company the ability to benefit from improving spot rates while maintaining flexibility to add contract freight at higher rates. He said spot rates were accretive to overall Network rates in February and March and noted that price renewals are now “at the highest level since 2021.” Rourke said Schneider expects Network 2026 rate renewals to be “in the mid to high single digits for the full year,” with “double-digit increases” for certain more transactional customers where “there is more ground to make up in rate recovery.”
During the Q&A, Filter reiterated expectations for mid- to high-single-digit Network renewals while noting “signs of momentum building.” He described multiple pricing levers, including allocation events, turnbacks, load acceptance, and spot. He also said most of the first-quarter Network revenue per truck per week improvement came from productivity rather than price, and management expects additional opportunities from pricing, productivity, and equipment efficiency.
For Dedicated, Rourke said contracts generally range “3 to 5 years,” with a median of three, and he described renewals as “fairly evenly distributed.” He also said Schneider has a “greater than 92%-93% retention rate” on Dedicated contracts. Management emphasized that Dedicated performance will be measured more by revenue per truck per week than truck count, as the company evaluates asset deployment and productivity opportunities. Filter said the business is leaning into “specialty dedicated” areas of differentiation and expects improved backhaul opportunities as spot rates rise.
In Intermodal, Rourke said Mexico growth “continued its momentum, growing double digits,” which helped offset softer Transcon volume and the comparison to last year’s inventory pull-forward. Filter said customers are increasingly evaluating intermodal as fuel costs rise and capacity tightens, and he emphasized dray capacity as a key constraint where Schneider believes it is well positioned. On intermodal pricing, Filter said intermodal rate typically lags truckload by about two quarters and expects that pattern to be “pretty consistent,” though “not to the same magnitude” as over-the-road pricing moves.
Guidance maintained; management flags demand as swing factor and highlights leadership transition
Campbell said Schneider is maintaining its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.70 to $1.00, assuming an effective tax rate of about 24%. He said confidence has increased in cost execution and supply attrition, but macro uncertainty has introduced additional demand risk. In response to analyst questions about not raising guidance, Campbell said the company is “one quarter in” with “a whole lot of year left,” and needs to see first-quarter trends persist.
Campbell also kept 2026 net CapEx guidance unchanged at $400 million to $450 million, primarily for replacement spending to maintain fleet age. He said Schneider believes it has “runway for growth with our existing equipment,” citing container capacity to support “double-digit Intermodal growth” and the ability to scale power-only and owner-operator capacity in a capital-efficient manner.
On the balance sheet, Campbell said the company ended the quarter with $399 million in debt and lease obligations and $228 million in cash and cash equivalents, with net debt leverage of 0.3 times. He said the balance sheet provides flexibility to maintain an investment-grade profile and pursue accretive acquisitions, while also supporting shareholder returns. Campbell said the company returned over $22 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends—recently increased 5%—and share repurchases under a newly authorized program.
Executives also discussed using AI to reduce friction for drivers and customers. Rourke cited use cases such as triaging driver calls and breakdown issues to prioritize higher-impact situations, aiming to improve service, driver experience, and cost decisions. He said the company is using a mix of in-house development and outside capabilities, including voice tools, and expects further operating leverage as these initiatives expand.
Rourke closed by noting the call marked his “36th and final” Schneider earnings call ahead of his retirement in July, when Filter is set to transition to president and CEO and Rourke to executive chairman.
About Schneider National NYSE: SNDR
Schneider National, Inc is a leading provider of transportation and logistics services in North America. The company offers a full spectrum of solutions, including truckload transportation, intermodal services and dedicated logistics. Through these offerings, Schneider supports the movement of goods ranging from dry van freight to refrigerated and flatbed shipments, while also providing customized supply chain management and warehousing capabilities.
Founded in 1935 by Al Schneider as a single-truck operation in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the company has grown into one of the industry's most recognized carriers.
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