STMicroelectronics NYSE: STM outlined its strategy and growth expectations tied to the rapidly expanding low Earth orbit (LEO) space economy during “The LEO Opportunity” conference call, led by Remi El-Ouazzane, president of the company’s Microcontrollers, Digital ICs and RF Products Group.
El-Ouazzane described the space market as splitting into “two fairly distinct worlds”: traditional space—covering exploration missions and geostationary/medium Earth orbit infrastructure—and “new space,” centered on LEO. He said new space is being driven by smaller satellites, faster deployment cycles, lower latency, and new business models targeting mass adoption, which in turn increases semiconductor content per system.
LEO revenue growth and market positioning
El-Ouazzane said ST has been active in space for more than 45 years and has participated in both traditional and new space from early stages. He highlighted a sharp increase in ST’s LEO-related revenues, which he said rose to approximately $600 million in 2025 from about $175 million in 2021—an increase he characterized as roughly a 36% compound annual growth rate. He also referenced estimates that place ST’s RF market share for LEO above 90% in 2025, while emphasizing that the market remains “in the early innings.”
Looking ahead, El-Ouazzane said ST’s serviceable available market (SAM) for LEO broadband electronics was about $650 million in 2025 and is expected to grow to roughly $2 billion in 2028 and close to $3 billion by 2030, a view he said excludes potential upside from orbital data center concepts.
Drivers behind LEO scaling
El-Ouazzane attributed the scale-up of LEO constellations to three major shifts:
- Lower launch costs, driven by reusable rockets. He cited a decline in cost per kilogram to orbit from about $10,000 with Falcon 1 in the mid-2000s to about $2,000 with Falcon 9, and said costs are expected to drop by another factor of 10 with Starship.
- Satellite standardization and higher manufacturing scale, with lighter and more standardized satellites launched in groups and incorporating software-defined payloads and inter-satellite optical links.
- User terminal innovation, as parabolic dishes have shifted toward electronically steered antennas using beamforming, enabling high-volume manufacturing and consumer-like pricing.
He cited Gartner’s expectation for LEO services spending to reach close to $15 billion globally in 2026 and outlined three growth vectors: broadband connectivity, emerging direct-to-cell services, and the longer-term prospect of orbital data centers.
SpaceX relationship and scaling to industrial volumes
El-Ouazzane described a “decade-long partnership” with SpaceX built on co-development for satellite and user terminal technologies. He said the collaboration has produced “billions of co-design products” used across “millions of Starlink user terminals” and “over 10,000 Starlink satellites.” He added that ST’s role spans co-designing chips, engineering services, and high-volume manufacturing.
He said ST has delivered more than 7.5 billion integrated circuits into the program to date and framed this as evidence of ST’s ability to support “high volume space-grade program at industrial scale.” He also noted that downlink capacity per satellite has increased significantly across Starlink generations—moving from “tens of gigabit per second” to “terabit per second levels,” which he characterized as roughly a 40x improvement. Over the same progression, he said ST’s bill of materials content grew substantially, rising by 8x between Starlink’s V1.5 and V3 satellites to “several tens of thousands of EUR per satellite.”
Portfolio breadth and manufacturing technologies
El-Ouazzane said ST addresses the LEO ecosystem across satellites, gateways, and user terminals, with products ranging from RF and digital ASICs to radiation-capable microcontrollers, plus power, analog, MEMS, secure elements, and filters. He provided directional content values of “several tens of thousands of dollars” per satellite, “a few hundreds of dollars” per gateway, and “several tens of dollars” per user terminal.
He highlighted several technology pillars supporting ST’s positioning:
- FDSOI, which he called a key enabler for ASICs and microcontrollers, citing performance, energy efficiency, and “structural immunity to radiation,” supplied from ST’s 300mm fab in France and a foundry partner.
- BiCMOS for user terminal front-end modules, which he said is well suited for phased-array antennas, particularly low-noise amplifiers and power amplifiers, and is produced on ST’s 200mm and 300mm fabs in France.
- Panel level packaging (PLP), which he said enables very high-volume production, RF/thermal performance, and miniaturization; he emphasized that the combination of BiCMOS and PLP is central to competitiveness.
Outlook: cumulative space revenue target and key dependencies
El-Ouazzane said ST aims to generate “well above EUR 3 billion” in cumulative revenue from the space market over the next three years (2026–2028), combining LEO and traditional space. He said this ambition includes broadband and direct-to-cell opportunities, but excludes potential upside from orbital data centers.
In the Q&A, El-Ouazzane said ST could be “close to EUR 1 billion” in space revenue in 2026 and that growth beyond that would depend on constellation rollout and launch capacity. He pointed to the progress of SpaceX’s Starship and Blue Origin’s New Glenn as key variables, calling Starship a potential “game changer.”
On mix, he repeatedly stated that user terminals are currently the largest revenue contributor, followed by satellites, with gateways less material. He also explained that the difference between subscriber counts and chip volumes is driven by the number of antenna elements per terminal, which he said can range from “hundreds to more than 1,000.”
El-Ouazzane acknowledged that ST does not expect to sustain a greater-than-90% share indefinitely and said the company has factored in potential market share loss. He characterized likely competitors as companies that can match ST across BiCMOS, assembly capacity, and PLP know-how, and said the LEO market will attract competition as it scales.
Addressing China, El-Ouazzane said export controls prevent ST from participating in Chinese satellite technology, but said the company is focusing on Chinese user terminals and is “quite engaged” in user terminal development there, while noting the programs are still at an early stage due to limited satellite footprints.
El-Ouazzane also said user terminal product generations run at roughly an 18-month cadence, requiring manufacturing excellence to manage rapid ramps and transitions. Asked whether military applications were included in the cited space revenue figures, he said they were not and described that contribution as “completely marginal.”
About STMicroelectronics NYSE: STM
STMicroelectronics is a global semiconductor company headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, formed through the 1987 merger of SGS Microelettronica and Thomson Semiconducteurs. The company designs, develops and manufactures a broad range of semiconductor products and solutions that serve multiple end markets worldwide. ST's offerings span from basic components to integrated systems, emphasizing energy-efficient and high-performance devices for modern electronics.
Product categories include microcontrollers (notably the widely used STM32 family), analog and mixed-signal ICs, power MOSFETs and power-management devices, MEMS and sensors, image sensors, and discrete semiconductors.
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