Trisura Group Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• Trisura posted strong 2025 results with an operating EPS of CAD 0.75 in Q4 (CAD 2.85 full-year), an 85% combined ratio, gross premiums written of CAD 786 million (+10% YoY) and book value per share up 18% to CAD 19.42.
• The company is shifting toward primary lines—Surety, Warranty and Corporate Insurance—with Surety a standout (premium growth of 36% and a top‑30 U.S. surety ranking); management guides 2026 for mid‑teens growth in Trisura Specialty (combined ratio ~86–87%) and mid–high‑single‑digit growth with a low‑80s combined ratio for U.S. Programs.
• Capital and reserves remain solid after drawing the revolver to support U.S. surety (debt‑to‑capital at 12.7%, well below the 25% target), with favorable reserve development reported and management evaluating AI/tech initiatives that have not yet moved the needle economically.

Trisura Group TSE: TSU executives used the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call to highlight continued profitability, growth in primary lines, and progress expanding its U.S. footprint, while also outlining expectations for 2026 across key segments and the investment portfolio.

Strategy: shifting toward primary lines and building U.S. platforms

Chief Executive Officer David Clare said 2026 will mark 20 years since Trisura began operations and described 2025 as a year of “significant progress” toward the company’s objective of becoming a leading North American specialty insurer. Clare pointed to an 85% combined ratio and an 18% increase in book value per share as evidence of execution.

Management emphasized that primary lines—Surety, Warranty, and Corporate Insurance—remain the foundation of the business, with net insurance revenue up 20% in 2025. Surety was described as a standout, with premium growth of 36%, supported by continued U.S. expansion and strength in Canada. Clare said Trisura ranked among the top 30 U.S. surety writers by the third quarter, and characterized early results as reflecting strong relationships and disciplined underwriting.

Warranty premium grew 17% in 2025, which management attributed to deeper relationships with existing partners and improving auto purchasing activity. Corporate Insurance, Clare said, grew premium and delivered a 31% loss ratio in a “balancing market,” with Trisura continuing to invest in U.S. Corporate Insurance in a way that mirrors its earlier U.S. surety expansion—focusing on areas it knows, hiring experienced talent, and leveraging existing infrastructure.

Quarterly financial results: operating EPS of CAD 0.75 and an 85% combined ratio

Chief Financial Officer David Scotland reported operating earnings per share of CAD 0.75 for the quarter, bringing full-year operating EPS to CAD 2.85. Operating return on equity was 17%, which Scotland said exceeded the company’s mid-teens target.

Key quarterly figures discussed on the call included:

• Gross premiums written: CAD 786 million, up 10% year-over-year.
• Net insurance revenue: CAD 200 million, up 11.8%, with primary lines up 15%.
• Combined ratio: 85% for the quarter and 84.9% for the full year.
• Net investment income: CAD 21.5 million, up 25%, driven by a larger investment portfolio and cash deployment.
• Operating net income: CAD 36.5 million.
• Operating effective tax rate: 24.7%.

Scotland said the quarterly combined ratio was higher than the prior year, with a slightly higher loss ratio due to a higher loss ratio at Trisura Specialty, which he said was within expectations and compared against a particularly low loss ratio in 2024. He also noted a higher expense ratio tied to higher contingent profit commissions at Trisura Specialty and a more “normalized” expense ratio at U.S. Programs.

Book value per share ended 2025 at CAD 19.42, up 18% year-to-date, though Scotland said the increase was partly offset by foreign exchange movements. He added that book value has grown at an average rate of 26% over the past five years, ending the year with over CAD 920 million, and said Trisura remained on track for its CAD 1 billion book value target by the end of 2027.

Segment commentary: Surety momentum, U.S. Programs stability, and Canadian Fronting competitiveness

On the question-and-answer portion of the call, management provided additional detail on underwriting and growth drivers.

In Canadian Surety, Clare said the company is seeing encouraging signs from its larger-limit bonding initiative, with increased submissions toward the end of 2025 beginning to translate into “early wins,” though he added “the best is yet to come.” On the U.S. surety expansion, he said the project is now five years in and the top-30 ranking was a “nice metric,” with additional infrastructure build-out still ahead. Clare said Trisura may move more capital into the U.S. surety entity over time as additional licenses are obtained, but described that as capital already earmarked internally rather than a material shift in approach.

Asked about surety loss ratio expectations as the mix evolves, management said it typically thinks about a long-term range of roughly 20% to 21%, with potential to move 20% to 22% depending on mix, but “nothing material” in terms of change.

In U.S. Programs, Scotland said the business posted 17% growth in gross premiums written in the quarter, and Clare noted the platform benefited from a strongly performing portfolio, growth in MGAs, improving reinsurance capacity, and a widely licensed admitted and E&S platform. Later, management told analysts that recent growth has been driven mostly by expansion and maturity of existing relationships, while a more constructive reinsurance market in the second half of 2025 also enabled the launch of a few new programs that began contributing in the latter part of the year.

Canadian Fronting was described as operating in a competitive market. Management said it expects premiums in that line to be “flat to down a few points” next year, while emphasizing that underwriting income is a more important measure than top-line movement. Clare said 2025 underwriting income in Canadian Fronting was sustained in part by a better loss ratio, while acknowledging that if premium declines persist, underwriting income could eventually be affected, depending on portfolio loss performance.

2026 outlook: mid-teens growth at Trisura Specialty and low-80s combined ratio for U.S. Programs

Management provided explicit expectations for 2026 on the call. For Trisura Specialty—which Scotland said includes Surety, Warranty, Corporate Insurance, and Canadian Fronting—the company expects mid-teens top-line growth next year, with some lines faster and some slower. For the combined ratio in that group, management indicated an expectation of roughly 86% to 87%.

For U.S. Programs, management said it expects mid- to high-single-digit top-line growth in 2026, with a combined ratio in the “low 80s,” consistent with 2025 results.

On investment income, Scotland suggested net premiums earned growth is a “great proxy” for modeling growth in net investment income, given the way retained premiums feed cash into the investment portfolio. He added that the company is focused on defending yields as reinvestment yields and book yields converge.

Capital, reserves, and technology themes

Scotland noted Trisura drew on its revolving credit facility during the year to further capitalize its growing U.S. Surety balance sheet, raising its debt-to-capital ratio to 12.7% at December 31, 2025. He said the figure remains below the company’s conservative leverage target of 25% and that Trisura expects sufficient capital to meet regulatory requirements and support organic growth.

On reserving, management said the company’s updated reserve triangle showed favorable development on a consolidated basis, which it said demonstrates strength across the platform. Clare said improving expectations for the U.S. practice was discussed previously and that favorable development remains a goal going forward.

When asked about AI and technology, Clare said the company is actively evaluating opportunities but described insurance as a highly regulated and complex industry, with the most immediate benefits expected to be operational efficiencies. He said Trisura is testing and participating in industry evaluation of new tools, but did not point to initiatives that are “moving the needle economically” yet.

About Trisura Group TSE: TSU

Trisura Group Ltd is a Canadian based company engages in the provision of specialty insurance. The company's operations currently include specialty property and casualty insurance (Surety, Risk Solutions, and Corporate Insurance business lines), underwritten predominantly in Canada. The operating business segments are Trisura Guarantee, Trisura Specialty, and Trisura International. The Trisura Guarantee segment generates maximum revenue, which offers Surety, Risk Solutions and Corporate Insurance products underwritten in Canada as well as the operations of Trisura Warranty.

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