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Vista Energy Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

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Key Points

  • Vista reported strong Q1 results with production averaging 135,000 BOE/d (+67% YoY) and oil at 117,000 bbl/d (+68% YoY), driving revenue of $694 million and adjusted EBITDA of $451 million (65% margin) after tying in 23 new wells.
  • The company raised 2026 guidance to 140–143,000 BOE/d and boosted full-year outlook under an $85 Brent to $2.6 billion adjusted EBITDA and $700 million free cash flow, noting ~+$275M EBITDA and ~$250M FCF per $10/Brent move.
  • Q1 free cash flow was - $341 million mainly due to a $206M trading-related working-capital swing, a $46M tax payment and an $80M Equinor deposit (recurring FCF ~ -$10M ex‑one-offs); Vista expects the pending Equinor close (early May, ~20k bpd) to materially boost 2026 EBITDA and is prioritizing deleveraging toward ~1x net debt while maintaining a $150M buyback program.
  • MarketBeat previews top five stocks to own in June.

Vista Energy NYSE: VIST reported a sharp year-over-year increase in first-quarter 2026 production and earnings, while updating full-year guidance to reflect stronger well performance and a higher oil-price outlook for the remainder of the year.

First-quarter operational and financial highlights

Chairman and CEO Miguel Galuccio said the company made “solid progress” in its annual work program, supported by what he described as robust productivity from new wells brought online during the quarter.

Total production averaged 135,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d), up 67% from the year-ago period, with oil production rising 68% to 117,000 barrels per day. Galuccio said production increased through the quarter, from 127,400 BOE/d in January to 143,200 BOE/d in March, driven by newly tied-in wells. The company tied in 23 wells during the quarter across Bajada del Palo Oeste and La Amarga Chica, which management said represents strong progress against its full-year plan of 80 to 90 wells.

Galuccio reported total revenues of $694 million for the quarter, up 58% year over year, while realized oil price averaged $60.1 per barrel, down 12% from the prior year but up 2% sequentially. He said the quarter’s revenue benefited from higher volumes that more than offset lower prices tied to Brent. Adjusted EBITDA rose 64% year over year to $451 million, while net income was $108 million, or $1 per share.

On costs, lifting cost was $4.3 per BOE, down 8% year over year, which Galuccio attributed to the company’s low-cost asset base and fixed-cost dilution from scale. Selling expenses were $3.8 per BOE, down 41% year over year, primarily due to the elimination of oil trucking at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 65%, up three percentage points versus the year-ago quarter, driven by lower export duties, selling expenses, and lifting costs, according to management.

Free cash flow impacted by working capital and one-off items

Vista reported free cash flow of negative $341 million in the quarter, which management said was largely explained by non-recurring items and working-capital effects tied to changes in its commercial operations.

Cash flow from operating activities totaled $86 million, which Galuccio said was “mostly impacted by two one-off negative items.” The first was a $206 million working-capital impact associated with ramping up trading operations and shifting a significant portion of exports from FOB to a delivered basis, alongside higher Brent pricing. The second was a $46 million tax payment in Mexico that had been booked in prior quarters.

Cash used in investing activities was $427 million, reflecting $391 million of accrued capital expenditures, a $53 million decrease in CapEx-related working capital, and an $80 million deposit related to the Equinor acquisition. Excluding working-capital effects, one-offs, and the Equinor deposit, Galuccio said recurring free cash flow would have been negative $10 million, adding that these impacts were expected and did not change the company’s full-year outlook excluding the Equinor payment.

Vista ended the quarter with $615 million in cash and a net leverage ratio of 1.7x adjusted EBITDA. Financing cash flow was $118 million, driven by $590 million of borrowings, partially offset by $130 million of repayments and $27 million of interest payments.

Commercial strategy, pricing, and trading operation

Galuccio said oil exports more than doubled year over year to 7.2 million barrels, representing 67% of total sales volumes. He also said Vista sold 100% of its oil at export-parity prices in both domestic and international markets.

Addressing oil-price dynamics tied to the Middle East conflict, Galuccio said the impact in the first quarter was minor because the company had largely locked in March prices before the conflict began on Feb. 28. He said Vista expects higher oil prices to “significantly boost” adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow beginning in the second quarter.

In response to a question about capturing spot price upside, Galuccio said Vista is not changing its commercial strategy and that investors should see the company capture higher prices in the second quarter. He said less than a third of second-quarter production was priced at an average of around $90 Brent at the time of the call, with the rest exposed to current and future price levels.

He also discussed Vista’s trading vehicle, saying it was created to access new markets and generate additional margins by selling on a delivered basis. Galuccio cited new markets including Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, and Singapore, and said Vista expects to trade 25 million barrels in 2026. He emphasized that the goal is not to take trading risk, saying the unit only takes positions to cover sold volumes, typically for the following month until delivery.

Regarding working-capital volatility tied to the trading operation, Galuccio told analysts that selling on a delivered basis extends the revenue collection cycle due to shipping transit time. He also described an additional working-capital effect tied to the structure in which the trading entity buys physical oil from Vista Argentina and sells a forward contract at the same price to lock in revenue, which can increase invoiced amounts in periods of significant price volatility.

On domestic pricing in Argentina, Galuccio said there was “no agreement to fix prices” but described a mechanism to mitigate the financial impact of rising crude prices. Under the arrangement, buyers recognize full export parity while paying up to $95 to $100 Brent for April and May, with any positive difference versus international prices deferred for payment no later than July 31. He said the arrangement applies to about a third of local sales—around 15,000 barrels per day, or roughly 10% of total sales—and is not expected to materially affect cash flow.

Guidance raised on production, EBITDA, and free cash flow

Vista increased its 2026 production guidance to 140,000 to 143,000 BOE/d, which Galuccio said implies more than 1 million additional BOE for the year, while keeping capital spending guidance unchanged at $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion.

In response to a question from Bank of America’s Leonardo Marcondes, Galuccio attributed the uplift primarily to confidence in the productivity of the 23 wells connected in the first quarter. He said second-quarter production should be around March levels, followed by progressive increases in the third and fourth quarters, resulting in an average of 143,000 BOE/d for the year. He noted the guidance does not include the consolidation of Equinor assets.

Vista also updated its financial outlook under multiple Brent scenarios for the second through fourth quarters. Under an $85 Brent case, Vista raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.6 billion, which Galuccio said is $700 million higher than the prior forecast. At $75 Brent, Vista forecasts $2.3 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and at $95 Brent, $2.9 billion.

For free cash flow, Vista raised full-year guidance to $700 million under the $85 Brent case, which Galuccio said is $500 million above the original guidance. Under $75 Brent, Vista forecasts $400 million of free cash flow, and under $95 Brent, $1.0 billion.

Asked about higher price sensitivities, Galuccio said each $10 increase in Brent from the second through fourth quarters would add about $275 million of EBITDA and $250 million of free cash flow. He outlined scenarios of approximately $3.2 billion of EBITDA at $105 Brent and nearly $3.5 billion at $115 Brent, with free cash flow of about $1.25 billion at $105 and $1.5 billion at $115.

Equinor transaction, capital allocation, and RIGI applications

Galuccio said the updated guidance does not reflect the closing of the Equinor Argentina acquisition. He said Vista completed all conditions precedent to close the transaction and expects closing in early May, with guidance to be updated after closing. In response to a question from Pickering Energy Partners’ Michael Furrow, Galuccio said the company received pending approval from Chilean antitrust authorities, that CapEx associated with the asset would be around $200 million, and that—assuming closing in early May—the consolidation would be as of May 1. He said the asset is producing around 20,000 barrels per day at Vista’s working interest and reiterated that, on a preliminary basis, consolidating the acquired asset would increase 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to around $3 billion under the $85 Brent scenario.

On capital allocation, Galuccio told Goldman Sachs’ Guilherme Martins that Vista’s priority is to delever after completing acquisitions that together add up to 70,000 BOE/d when considering Petronas and Equinor. He said the company aims to return to around 1x net debt leverage by year-end and noted shareholders approved an extension of the share buyback plan for $150 million for 2026.

Galuccio also addressed service-cost inflation, saying Vista has not seen “any tariff change” but is seeing some adjustments in contracts indexed to gasoline prices and an impact on the peso component. He said Vista is confirming its guidance of $11.7 million for drilling and completion cost per well and reiterated lifting cost guidance of $4.3 per BOE, adding that its cost-reduction plan is expected to offset most of the impact.

Separately, Galuccio said Vista is preparing documentation to apply for Argentina’s RIGI incentive program for two future development blocks—Aguada Mora and Bandurria Norte—and expects to submit materials by the end of the second quarter. He said the process could take a few months based on other applicants and that RIGI incentives could accelerate CapEx in blocks that otherwise would be later in the company’s plan.

During the call, Galuccio also said La Amarga Chica was performing well, noting production increased to about 48,000 barrels of oil per day in the first quarter at Vista’s working interest, compared with around 38,000 barrels per day when the block was acquired. He said the company expects a “flattish forecast or even” slight growth for the remainder of the year.

About Vista Energy NYSE: VIST

Vista Energy NYSE: VIST is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas resources in Mexico. The company operates through two primary segments: upstream exploration and production, and midstream and specialist services. By integrating both segments, Vista Energy seeks to capture value across the energy value chain, from field operations to the delivery of processed gas to industrial and power-generation customers.

In its upstream segment, Vista Energy holds interests in onshore gas fields in northeastern Mexico and shallow-water properties in the Bay of Campeche.

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