William Blair Issues Pessimistic Forecast for CAKE Earnings

Key Points

• William Blair has revised its Q4 2025 earnings estimate for Cheesecake Factory down to $1.10 per share, from a previous estimate of $1.12, as the consensus for the full year remains at $3.71 per share.
• The Cheesecake Factory recently reported earnings of $1.16 per share for the last quarter, exceeding expectations of $1.06, signifying a 5.7% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year.
• In addition to this, the company has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share, which will be paid on August 26th, marking an annual yield of 1.62%.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE - Free Report) - Analysts at William Blair lowered their Q4 2025 earnings estimates for Cheesecake Factory in a research report issued to clients and investors on Wednesday, July 30th. William Blair analyst S. Zackfia now expects that the restaurant operator will post earnings per share of $1.10 for the quarter, down from their prior forecast of $1.12. The consensus estimate for Cheesecake Factory's current full-year earnings is $3.71 per share. William Blair also issued estimates for Cheesecake Factory's FY2026 earnings at $4.20 EPS.

CAKE has been the topic of several other reports. Barclays upped their target price on Cheesecake Factory from $57.00 to $62.00 and gave the company an "underweight" rating in a report on Wednesday. Raymond James Financial upped their price objective on shares of Cheesecake Factory from $63.00 to $70.00 and gave the company an "outperform" rating in a research note on Thursday, July 17th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lifted their target price on shares of Cheesecake Factory from $50.00 to $58.00 and gave the stock an "underweight" rating in a research note on Wednesday, June 25th. Citigroup cut their price target on shares of Cheesecake Factory from $67.00 to $62.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, April 15th. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group reissued a "neutral" rating and issued a $67.00 price objective (up from $66.00) on shares of Cheesecake Factory in a research report on Thursday, July 10th. Four equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, six have given a hold rating and seven have issued a buy rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Cheesecake Factory presently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average target price of $61.06.

Cheesecake Factory Trading Down 2.4%

Shares of CAKE stock traded down $1.53 on Thursday, hitting $62.38. The company had a trading volume of 1,941,239 shares, compared to its average volume of 1,545,028. Cheesecake Factory has a twelve month low of $33.50 and a twelve month high of $69.70. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.85, a quick ratio of 0.43 and a current ratio of 0.53. The firm has a market cap of $3.09 billion, a P/E ratio of 19.19, a P/E/G ratio of 1.57 and a beta of 1.17. The stock's 50-day moving average is $61.06 and its two-hundred day moving average is $54.28.

Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, July 29th. The restaurant operator reported $1.16 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.06 by $0.10. Cheesecake Factory had a return on equity of 46.15% and a net margin of 4.33%. The company had revenue of $955.83 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $945.82 million. During the same quarter last year, the business posted $1.09 EPS. Cheesecake Factory's revenue for the quarter was up 5.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Cheesecake Factory

A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Principal Financial Group Inc. increased its holdings in shares of Cheesecake Factory by 2.2% in the 1st quarter. Principal Financial Group Inc. now owns 274,877 shares of the restaurant operator's stock worth $13,376,000 after purchasing an additional 6,047 shares in the last quarter. Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC bought a new stake in shares of Cheesecake Factory in the first quarter worth approximately $5,559,000. KLP Kapitalforvaltning AS bought a new stake in Cheesecake Factory during the fourth quarter valued at about $489,000. Foundry Partners LLC purchased a new stake in Cheesecake Factory in the first quarter worth about $299,000. Finally, Dynamic Technology Lab Private Ltd bought a new position in shares of Cheesecake Factory in the fourth quarter worth about $972,000. Institutional investors own 94.48% of the company's stock.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other Cheesecake Factory news, Director Alexander L. Cappello sold 12,388 shares of the stock in a transaction on Thursday, July 31st. The shares were sold at an average price of $65.88, for a total transaction of $816,121.44. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 6,806 shares of the company's stock, valued at $448,379.28. This represents a 64.54% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website. Also, EVP Scarlett May sold 18,800 shares of Cheesecake Factory stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, June 9th. The stock was sold at an average price of $58.82, for a total value of $1,105,816.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president owned 22,872 shares in the company, valued at approximately $1,345,331.04. This represents a 45.11% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. In the last 90 days, insiders sold 145,388 shares of company stock worth $8,273,113. Insiders own 8.40% of the company's stock.

Cheesecake Factory Announces Dividend

The business also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, August 26th. Stockholders of record on Tuesday, August 12th will be paid a $0.27 dividend. This represents a $1.08 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.7%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, August 12th. Cheesecake Factory's payout ratio is 33.23%.

About Cheesecake Factory

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. The company operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors.