Wolfe Research Forecasts Weaker Earnings for Meritage Homes

Key Points

• Wolfe Research cut its Q3 2026 EPS estimate for Meritage to $1.40 from $2.03 and also trimmed Q4 and FY forecasts, signaling weaker near‑term profitability.
• Meritage's latest quarter missed expectations with $0.86 EPS vs. $0.98 estimated and revenue of $1.12 billion (down 17.5% year‑over‑year), pressuring analyst outlooks.
• The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.48 (annualized $1.92, ~2.8% yield), while insiders have sold shares and analyst ratings remain mixed with a consensus price target near $79.89.

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH - Free Report) - Equities research analysts at Wolfe Research lowered their Q3 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Meritage Homes in a research note issued to investors on Thursday, April 23rd. Wolfe Research analyst T. Allinson now expects that the construction company will post earnings of $1.40 per share for the quarter, down from their previous forecast of $2.03. The consensus estimate for Meritage Homes' current full-year earnings is $5.55 per share. Wolfe Research also issued estimates for Meritage Homes' Q4 2026 earnings at $1.49 EPS.

Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, April 22nd. The construction company reported $0.86 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.98 by ($0.12). The business had revenue of $1.12 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.55 billion. Meritage Homes had a return on equity of 8.08% and a net margin of 6.86%.The business's revenue was down 17.5% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the business posted $1.69 earnings per share.

Other analysts have also issued reports about the company. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods dropped their price target on Meritage Homes from $78.00 to $76.00 and set a "market perform" rating on the stock in a report on Tuesday, February 3rd. Citigroup initiated coverage on Meritage Homes in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. They set an "outperform" rating on the stock. Truist Financial set a $80.00 price target on Meritage Homes and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a report on Thursday, April 16th. Bank of America dropped their price target on Meritage Homes from $74.00 to $72.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a report on Monday, April 20th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered Meritage Homes from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a report on Saturday, April 11th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, five have issued a Buy rating and seven have assigned a Hold rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $79.89.

Meritage Homes Stock Performance

Shares of Meritage Homes stock opened at $69.50 on Wednesday. The business's fifty day simple moving average is $67.04 and its 200 day simple moving average is $69.45. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.64 billion, a P/E ratio of 12.75, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.78 and a beta of 1.50. Meritage Homes has a 12 month low of $58.03 and a 12 month high of $84.74. The company has a current ratio of 1.96, a quick ratio of 2.10 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36.

Meritage Homes Increases Dividend

The company also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, March 31st. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, March 17th were paid a $0.48 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Tuesday, March 17th. This is a boost from Meritage Homes's previous quarterly dividend of $0.43. This represents a $1.92 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.8%. Meritage Homes's dividend payout ratio is presently 35.23%.

Insider Buying and Selling at Meritage Homes

In other Meritage Homes news, EVP Javier Feliciano sold 3,580 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Monday, February 23rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $76.24, for a total value of $272,939.20. Following the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 44,935 shares in the company, valued at $3,425,844.40. The trade was a 7.38% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website. Also, CFO Hilla Sferruzza sold 10,928 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Monday, February 23rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $76.35, for a total value of $834,352.80. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer owned 124,961 shares in the company, valued at approximately $9,540,772.35. The trade was a 8.04% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders have sold a total of 47,622 shares of company stock worth $3,640,273 over the last ninety days. 2.50% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Institutional Trading of Meritage Homes

Several hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in MTH. QRG Capital Management Inc. grew its position in shares of Meritage Homes by 9.8% in the first quarter. QRG Capital Management Inc. now owns 8,818 shares of the construction company's stock valued at $545,000 after purchasing an additional 789 shares in the last quarter. Private Advisor Group LLC purchased a new position in shares of Meritage Homes in the first quarter valued at $203,000. Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd purchased a new position in shares of Meritage Homes in the first quarter valued at $313,000. Elevation Point Wealth Partners LLC grew its position in shares of Meritage Homes by 29.2% in the first quarter. Elevation Point Wealth Partners LLC now owns 6,032 shares of the construction company's stock valued at $373,000 after purchasing an additional 1,364 shares in the last quarter. Finally, iA Global Asset Management Inc. purchased a new position in shares of Meritage Homes in the first quarter valued at $6,650,000. 98.44% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Key Stories Impacting Meritage Homes

Here are the key news stories impacting Meritage Homes this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Citizens Jmp kept a constructive stance on MTH by maintaining a "Market Outperform" rating and a $90 price target, which supports upside expectations despite modest forecast cuts. Citizens Jmp Research / MarketBeat
• Neutral Sentiment: Unrelated company using the ticker MTH on overseas exchanges (Mithril Silver & Gold) released a March quarterly report — not relevant to U.S. homebuilder Meritage Homes but potentially confusing to some screeners. Mithril Silver and Gold March 2026 Quarterly Report
• Negative Sentiment: JPMorgan cut its price target to $58 (from $62) and set a "neutral" rating — a notable downward revision that implies meaningful downside from current levels and likely pressured intraday sentiment. Benzinga note on JPMorgan PT cut
• Negative Sentiment: Wolfe Research trimmed Q2 2026, FY2026 and FY2027 EPS estimates (notably downgrading FY2027 and Q2 EPS), signaling lower expected near‑term profitability and reducing analyst-driven upside. Wolfe Research estimates / MarketBeat
• Negative Sentiment: Citizens Jmp also trimmed FY2027 and quarterly estimates (albeit while keeping Outperform), adding to the chorus of forecast downgrades that weigh on sentiment and valuation assumptions. Citizens Jmp estimates / MarketBeat
• Negative Sentiment: Earlier quarterly results (April 22) showed an EPS and revenue miss and year‑over‑year revenue decline, which remains a fundamental headwind — analysts are adjusting models accordingly. Meritage quarter results / MarketBeat

Meritage Homes Company Profile

Meritage Homes Corporation is a national homebuilder and residential developer headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona. Founded in 1985 as Winchester Homes and later rebranded to Meritage Homes, the company specializes in designing, constructing and selling single‐family detached and attached homes. With a focus on energy efficiency and sustainable building practices, Meritage Homes markets its properties under the GreenSmart program, which integrates high‐performance features aimed at reducing long‐term energy and water consumption for homebuyers.

The company's core activities encompass land acquisition, residential community planning, home design, construction management and real estate sales.

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