Zacks Research Issues Pessimistic Estimate for ACGL Earnings

Key Points

• Zacks Research lowered its Q2 2026 EPS estimate for Arch Capital Group to $2.40 from $2.46, and also trimmed several other future earnings forecasts. Its FY2026 estimate of $9.29 remains essentially in line with the consensus $9.30.
• Arch Capital Group reported its last quarterly EPS at $2.50 on revenue of $4.52 billion, with strong profitability metrics including a 17.61% return on equity and a 24.64% net margin.
• Sentiment on the stock is mixed: analysts currently split between Buy and Hold ratings, while recent insider selling, including a director sale, may weigh on investor sentiment.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:ACGL - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Zacks Research dropped their Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Arch Capital Group in a research note issued on Tuesday, May 12th. Zacks Research analyst Team now anticipates that the insurance provider will earn $2.40 per share for the quarter, down from their previous forecast of $2.46. The consensus estimate for Arch Capital Group's current full-year earnings is $9.30 per share. Zacks Research also issued estimates for Arch Capital Group's Q3 2026 earnings at $1.89 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $2.50 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $9.29 EPS, Q1 2027 earnings at $2.57 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $2.24 EPS, Q4 2027 earnings at $2.79 EPS, FY2027 earnings at $10.02 EPS and FY2028 earnings at $10.92 EPS.

Arch Capital Group (NASDAQ:ACGL - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, March 31st. The insurance provider reported $2.50 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter. Arch Capital Group had a return on equity of 17.61% and a net margin of 24.64%.The company had revenue of $4.52 billion for the quarter.

Several other brokerages have also recently issued reports on ACGL. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods dropped their target price on Arch Capital Group from $105.00 to $102.00 and set a "market perform" rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, May 5th. Citigroup increased their target price on Arch Capital Group from $120.00 to $122.50 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, April 30th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped their target price on Arch Capital Group from $117.00 to $110.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a research report on Monday, April 20th. UBS Group reaffirmed a "buy" rating and set a $114.00 target price (up from $113.00) on shares of Arch Capital Group in a research report on Tuesday, February 17th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company increased their target price on Arch Capital Group from $109.00 to $110.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Thursday, April 30th. Eight investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, eight have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $106.32.

Arch Capital Group Stock Down 1.0%

Shares of NASDAQ ACGL opened at $93.32 on Thursday. The company has a current ratio of 0.55, a quick ratio of 0.55 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15. The stock has a market capitalization of $32.61 billion, a PE ratio of 7.17, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 5.18 and a beta of 0.35. The stock's fifty day simple moving average is $95.62 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $94.56. Arch Capital Group has a 12-month low of $82.44 and a 12-month high of $103.39.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other news, CEO Nicolas Papadopoulo sold 21,930 shares of the stock in a transaction on Tuesday, March 10th. The stock was sold at an average price of $96.31, for a total transaction of $2,112,078.30. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer owned 871,594 shares in the company, valued at approximately $83,943,218.14. This represents a 2.45% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Also, Director Brian S. Posner sold 2,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Monday, May 11th. The shares were sold at an average price of $17.14, for a total value of $34,280.00. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. In the last 90 days, insiders have sold 32,837 shares of company stock worth $2,766,946. 3.30% of the stock is currently owned by company insiders.

Institutional Trading of Arch Capital Group

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Daymark Wealth Partners LLC lifted its holdings in shares of Arch Capital Group by 3.4% during the 4th quarter. Daymark Wealth Partners LLC now owns 3,211 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $308,000 after purchasing an additional 106 shares during the last quarter. Keel Point LLC increased its position in shares of Arch Capital Group by 4.6% in the 3rd quarter. Keel Point LLC now owns 2,524 shares of the insurance provider's stock valued at $229,000 after acquiring an additional 112 shares during the period. Legacy Advisors LLC raised its stake in Arch Capital Group by 1.2% in the 4th quarter. Legacy Advisors LLC now owns 9,551 shares of the insurance provider's stock worth $916,000 after acquiring an additional 112 shares during the last quarter. Twin Capital Management Inc. lifted its position in Arch Capital Group by 1.4% during the 1st quarter. Twin Capital Management Inc. now owns 8,177 shares of the insurance provider's stock worth $785,000 after acquiring an additional 116 shares during the period. Finally, V Square Quantitative Management LLC lifted its position in Arch Capital Group by 1.3% during the 1st quarter. V Square Quantitative Management LLC now owns 9,453 shares of the insurance provider's stock worth $907,000 after acquiring an additional 123 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 89.07% of the company's stock.

Key Headlines Impacting Arch Capital Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Arch Capital Group this week:

• Neutral Sentiment: Zacks Research trimmed several future earnings estimates for Arch Capital Group, including FY2026, FY2027, FY2028, and multiple quarterly forecasts. The changes were small, and the firm’s full-year 2026 estimate of $9.29 per share remains essentially in line with consensus at $9.30, but the revisions may still weigh on sentiment. Arch Capital Group estimates update
• Neutral Sentiment: Zacks also nudged its Q1 2027 estimate higher, showing that not all revisions were negative. That mixed message likely limits the overall impact of the analyst note. Arch Capital Group estimates update
• Negative Sentiment: Director Brian S. Posner sold 2,000 shares of Arch Capital Group stock, a transaction worth $34,280. Insider selling can create concern that management sees limited near-term upside, even when the amount is relatively small. Arch Capital Group director sale

About Arch Capital Group

Arch Capital Group Ltd. NASDAQ: ACGL is a Bermuda-based insurance and reinsurance holding company that underwrites a broad range of property and casualty, mortgage, and specialty risk products. The company operates through a group of underwriting subsidiaries and platforms to provide insurance, reinsurance and related risk solutions tailored to commercial, institutional and individual clients.

Arch's product mix includes treaty and facultative reinsurance, primary casualty and property insurance, mortgage insurance and other specialty lines.

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