Astronics Corporation: Up 100% YTD in May and Heading Higher

Key Points

• Astronic's stock price rose 100% year-to-date (YTD) in May and is expected to continue rising in 2025.
• Revenue is growing robustly, above forecasts, and driving improved profitability. 
• Institutions are buying robustly in Q2, and short-sellers are covering their bets. 

Astronics Corporation’s NASDAQ: ATRO stock price is up 100% year-to-date (YTD) as of the end of May and is heading higher for two reasons. Its business is good, and legacy issues are quickly fading. Those involve patent disputes that were dismissed by numerous jurisdictions and upheld in only one.

The critical details for investors are that the patents in question expired years ago, there is no impact on current operations, and damage awards are already factored into the cash flow and balance sheet. The only question that remains is how high this stock might fly, and it is quite high due to rapidly improving profitability and demand for product.

Astronics Corporation: Supplier to Aerospace OEMs Globally 

Astronics Corporation supplies parts and components to the aerospace industry, and business is thriving. The trends in 2024 and early 2025 include a shift to profitability, sustained if slowing double-digit revenue growth, and outperformance. Products range from airframes to avionics and are in demand from aircraft original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to governments, airlines, and suppliers. 

Highlights from Q1 2025 include 700 basis points of top-line outperformance and similar margin strengths. The gross and operating margins expanded by more than 500 basis points, driving significant strength on the bottom line. Adjusted earnings increased by more than 400% and were approximately 50% better than expected by analysts due to operational efficiency, revenue leverage, and declining debt.

Guidance is another area of strength for investors to note. The company reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, calling for approximately 6% revenue growth at the midpoint range. Given the Q1 performance, including record bookings and backlog, this is likely a cautious guide.

The likely scenario is that Q2 and subsequent releases will result in improved guidance before the end of the year. 

No Red Flags on ATRO’s Balance Sheet: Sell-Side Buying Helps Lift Stock Price

Astronic’s balance sheet is among the reasons this stock is rising in 2025. At the end of Q1, the highlights include increased cash and assets, compounded by reduced debt, and partially offset by increased liabilities. The increased liability is primarily related to increased lease expenses; the critical details are that expanded operational capacity facilitates robust results, and the equity is rising.

Astronic’s shareholder equity improved by more than 4% in Q1 and will likely continue to improve as the year progresses. 

Regarding sell-side interest, institutions and short-sellers are buying in May. The institutions that own about 57% of the stock are buying robustly in 2025.

The pace of buying activity is more than four times the selling pace, providing a significant market lift, aided by short-covering. The short interest at the end of April was nearly 10%, not astronomically high, but sufficiently high to amplify the tailwind provided by the institutions. 

Astronic’s Stock Price Reaches a Critical Turning Point

Astronic’s stock price action is bullish in May but may have peaked. The market is approaching a critical resistance target that has been in place since 2019, when the bottom fell out of the market. This level could provide enough resistance to cap gains, and likely will, but the question is, for how long? Given the bullish outlook, improving profitability, and institutional activity, it may not last for long. The market may consolidate at or near the current level in this scenario and then move to a multi-year high later in the year. 

The next visible catalyst is the Q2 earnings release scheduled for early August. The analysts forecast about 5% sequential growth and margin strength, but likely underestimate the business. There will be an impact from tariffs, but it will be minimal due to the business's primary U.S. focus. About 90% of the company’s business is domestic, and there are plans in place to mitigate the impact on supply chain costs.