Could Palantir’s Latest Partnership Set a Base for a Move Higher?

Key Points

• Palantir partnered with Anduril to work with SpaceX on a "Golden Dome" defense system for the U.S. government.
• The project includes hundreds of satellites and a subscription model that could accelerate the rollout and significantly grow Palantir's revenue.
• This partnership could boost Palantir's stock; analysts predict a 31% revenue increase in the next 12 months.

Palantir Technologies Inc. NASDAQ: PLTR stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Apr. 22.

Some of that move could just correlate with buyers renewing their appetite for high-growth technology stocks.

However, other news may be causing some investors to push PLTR stock higher.

That news is that Palantir and Anduril have been chosen to partner with SpaceX on a pitch to construct a “Golden Dome” defense system for the U.S. government.

Some of the details of the SpaceX-led proposal include: 

• 400 to over 1,000 satellites designed to spot incoming missiles.

• 200 additional satellites would be armed with missiles or lasers to bring down incoming missiles. 

Perhaps the most interesting news is that the program would feature a subscription model. This does two things. First, it means the program would be able to avoid some of the Pentagon’s procurement protocols, which would allow a faster rollout. Second, the U.S. government would be renting access and would not have oversight of ongoing development and pricing.

What’s the “So What” for Palantir?

On the one hand, some investors may say that Palantir already receives much of its revenue via subscriptions. But this isn’t just any form of annual recurring revenue (ARR). It goes straight to Palantir’s stated mission of defending Western civilization broadly, and more specifically, the interests of the United States.

Some analysts forecast that Palantir's revenue will increase by 31% in the next 12 months. That’s a 35% improvement from its 22.9% annualized growth over the last three years.

That growth already reflects several contracts Palantir has secured across both government and commercial sectors, but it does not account for this particular agreement. As a result, any positive developments related to this contract could prompt analysts to revisit and potentially raise their previous revenue and earnings estimates.

All of this is to say that this contract could provide further support for the company’s lofty valuation.

Will This Be a Moonshot or a Failure to Launch?

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Golden Dome will become a reality. Some industry experts have placed the overall cost for this project in the hundreds of billions of dollars. At a time when all government spending is being closely watched, it may be the right idea at the wrong time.

However, President Trump has made it a priority, saying in a Jan. 27, 2025, executive order that a missile attack is “the most catastrophic threat facing the United States.”

Even if it does more forward, the bid could go elsewhere. The project draws interest from over 180 companies, including major names like Lockheed Martin Corp. NYSE: LMT and other startups like Armada.

Plus, the Pentagon has established several timelines for capabilities delivery, starting with some deadlines in early 2026 and extending past 2030. The takeaway is that the chances of approval are higher than they are now.

Earnings May Provide the Next Move Higher

The size and scope of this contract could serve as a future catalyst for PLTR stock. But what about right now? The broader market's move higher on Apr. 22 has brought Palantir’s stock price up to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

A decisive move above this technical level could generate fresh momentum and attract additional buying interest.

That push could come from the company’s upcoming earnings on May 5.

Analysts are forecasting revenue of $872.8 million and earnings per share of 13 cents. Those numbers would be year-over-year gains of 37.5% and 62.5%, respectively. Numbers like that would also likely increase the company’s free cash flow (FCF) margin, which has averaged 43.6% in the past 12 months.