Despite a Double Miss, D-Wave's Earnings Could Fuel a New Rally

Key Points

• Despite quarterly losses and revenue that failed to meet analyst expectations, D-Wave Quantum's Q4 earnings report showed many promising signs of growth.
• One highlight was the company's bookings momentum, which surged by 471% on a sequential basis—and January 2026 bookings have only continued to accelerate.
• D-Wave also maintains a strong cash position with about $885 million on hand, giving it ample room to fund its aggressive R&D plans in 2026.

After weeks of anticipation—and amid a share price decline of nearly 29% year-to-date (YTD)—D-Wave Quantum Inc. NYSE: QBTS reported Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings, and the results were...mixed. What's likely to make headlines is the fact that the company failed to meet analyst expectations on both top- and bottom-line performance for the final quarter of the year, despite making year-over-year (YOY) improvements in both categories.

Looking more closely, however, investors may find plenty of reasons to be optimistic about D-Wave's future following its latest earnings report. The company made impressive improvements in multiple areas, including quarterly bookings, cash position, full-year revenue and gross profit, and more. These wins, combined with the firm's pivotal acquisition of Quantum Circuits earlier this year and its subsequent repositioning as a dual-focus gate model and annealing quantum tech company, may help to cement D-Wave as one of the leading names in the space going forward.

D-Wave's Earnings Come Up Short—But Also Impress in Important Ways

Getting the bad news out of the way first, D-Wave's adjusted quarterly loss of 9 cents per share was steeper than the 5 cents that Wall Street had predicted, and its reported revenue of $2.75 million for the period came in close to $1 million below expectations, despite being about 22% higher than the prior-year quarter.

The revenue performance, in particular, highlights that D-Wave remains a speculative play—there simply isn't much business to be had in the quantum space yet, while companies in other sectors race to build products that are broadly marketable today. 

A closer look at D-Wave's earnings report, though, shows many positive signs as well. Overall, full-year profit and revenue performance were very strong. The company's 2025 revenue was $24.6 million, up about 179% YOY, while its full-year gross profit improved by 265% YOY.

These performances were driven by multiple factors, including strong bookings momentum. Q4 bookings reached $13.4 million, an improvement of a massive 471% on a sequential basis. Perhaps even more impressive, as D-Wave management noted, is that January 2026 bookings topped $30 million, already ahead of the level achieved across all of 2025.

Yes, these bookings are driven by a very small number of high-profile sales of D-Wave's Advantage2 systems, and there is still a need for the company to be able to cater to smaller clients as well. But they show unmistakable momentum in an area that could have a major impact on revenue and, eventually, profitability.

D-Wave's Cash Position Remains Healthy

Considering that D-Wave paid $550 million in cash and stock for Quantum Circuits—and risked further dilution by filing shelf registrations totaling $330 million early in the new year—it has a surprisingly strong cash position. Though D-Wave is making big moves quickly, as of the end of the year it had nearly $885 million in cash and marketable securities—and this is after a $250 million cash outlay for the acquisition.

Management has argued that this is sufficient cash on hand to fund D-Wave's planned path to profitability. Investors have been skeptical, though, as evidenced by the stock's decline so far this year. To add to that concern, D-Wave anticipates aggressive R&D spending and go-to-market investments in the near future, which should make bookings and revenue lumpy for some time.

Still, investors may be reassured by D-Wave's sizable cash holdings even after all of the activity of recent months. This should provide stability as the company works toward elusive profitability, although whether it is enough to carry D-Wave through what is likely to be a spend-heavy period remains to be seen.

The Market Reacts Positively

D-Wave shares spiked above $21.30 in the hours immediately following the earnings release, although they settled below $20 following that. All told, the stock is still down considerably YTD, but it remains up roughly 224% in the last 12 months after a massive rally in 2025.

Analysts still seem to favor D-Wave, assigning it a Moderate Buy rating based on 14 Buys, 1 Sell, and 1 Hold. The first analyst to respond with a rating adjustment following the latest earnings report was Needham & Co., which maintained a Buy rating but lowered the stock's price target by $8 to $40. Nonetheless, QBTS has a consensus price target of $37.64, about 89% above its current price.