Durable Goods Orders Jump 16.5%—Top 3 Stocks to Own Now

Key Points

• Honeywell stock could gain from its aerospace spin-off and growing AI-driven automation business.
• Deere may benefit from a potential U.S.-China trade deal, boosting ag exports and 2026 equipment demand.
• Microsoft's massive data center spending supports durable goods demand and long-term growth.

Investors got a nice surprise on June 26 from the latest reading on durable goods orders. The number showed a whopping increase of 16.5%. Not only was this larger than the 8.5% increase that was forecast, but it was also an impressive reversal of the 6.5% decrease in durable goods orders in April.

Digging deeper, the reason for the stronger-than-expected reading was a substantial increase in transportation equipment. Excluding that, orders were up 0.5%. However, that still exceeded the forecast for flat orders minus transportation.

Durable goods are a leading indicator that may point to increased economic activity. This is because they show businesses are willing to increase investment, particularly in areas like manufacturing, which is an important component of GDP. They can also signal that consumers are confident.

The one area of caution with this report is that the increase in transportation orders may reflect companies making one-time orders to get in front of potential tariffs.

However, with more clarity coming on tariffs, inflation remaining benign, and at least one interest rate likely sometime in the second half, there are many reasons to believe strong demand will continue in the second half of the year.

Durable goods stocks cover a lot of sectors. Here are three stocks that investors should have on their radar.

Honeywell’s Growth Story Is in the Early Stages

Honeywell International NASDAQ: HON is looking to unlock shareholder value with the tax-free spin-off of its aerospace business. This will create two separate businesses, Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Automation. The latter will be a software-driven industrial technology company that leans into artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because GE Aerospace NYSE: GE executed a similar plan with the spin-offs of its renewable energy and healthcare businesses. That’s worked out well for shareholders, and Honeywell is hoping to replicate that success.

The spin-off may still be a year away, and HON stock does look overvalued by some metrics. But even with the stock trading above its moving averages, the year-to-date growth doesn’t adequately reflect the company’s strong earnings report in April.

With those revenue and earnings numbers likely to increase in the second half, Honeywell appears to be a solid buy for income today and growth tomorrow.

Deere Stock Looks Ahead to Better Harvests With Trade Tailwinds

Deere & Co. NYSE: DE is up more than 19% in 2025. That may surprise some investors due to the company’s cyclical business model that is closely tied to the capital spending of large-scale agriculture companies.

The DE stock price may be even more unbelievable since the company has already said it expects lower demand in North America in 2025 due to softer commodity prices and inventory.

Only about 2% of Deere’s revenue comes directly from China. However, the country is the largest importer of soybeans and is also a major buyer of several other U.S. crops, including corn and wheat.

That said, Deere looks overvalued right now. So, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the 2.5% slide in the five trading days leading into June 26 begins to accelerate.

However, a favorable trade announcement, possibly coupled with a cut in interest rates, may fuel capital expenditure plans for 2026. That would make investors eager to front-run those gains and drive up the price of DE stock.

Another Reason to Own Microsoft Stock

Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ: MSFT isn’t a traditional durable goods company, but its multi-billion-dollar investment in AI data centers is driving demand for hardware, cooling systems, and power infrastructure, all of which are classic durable goods.

That isn’t to say Microsoft is not exposed to durable goods. The multifaceted company manufactures items like the Xbox gaming console, as well as Surface tablets and laptops.

Nevertheless, the company is sensitive to broader economic trends. Capital spending on information technology (IT) can fluctuate based on how corporations interpret the economic outlook.

The bottom line is that Microsoft is a leader in the tech sector, but its influence on the economy runs much deeper than that. Investors looking for quality will be willing to pay a premium for the company’s pricing power and free cash flow.