Is Qualcomm Up 40% or Down 20%? 2 Contrarian Takes

Key Points

• Qualcomm is up 40% since April, but nearly 20% below its October highs.
• Bulls see AI, automotive, and IOT growth driving the next leg higher.
• However, the bears argue that a frothy valuation and weak share price action could force the stock down. 

Qualcomm Inc.’s NASDAQ: QCOM chart captures 2025’s market tension perfectly. The semiconductor giant spent much of the past six months climbing steadily on optimism around AI, automotive chips, and diversification beyond smartphones. But after popping to multi-year highs at the end of October, the stock has quickly slid nearly 20%. 

MarketBeat readers won’t be too surprised by this kind of stop/start action.

Qualcomm, after all, has been flagged time and again as one of the more frustrating stocks to follow out of all the mega-cap tech stocks.

As we’ll see below, there are many reasons to think this stock should be trading well above $200 right now, but unfortunately, it has developed a reputation for not quite living up to its potential. 

Still, last month’s single-day pop of 22% was its biggest in years—proof that when Qualcomm does deliver, the market knows how to reward it. The question now is whether that surge marked the start of a long-overdue breakout, or just another false dawn in Qualcomm’s uneven climb. Let’s jump in and take a look at the arguments for each side.

Bullish Case: Structural Growth and Resilience

The bull argument begins with fundamentals. Qualcomm’s latest quarterly earnings results, released last week, once again topped expectations and showed revenue growing roughly 10% year-over-year (YOY). The report made it clear that the company continues to execute well across its revenue drivers, while also expanding into high-margin verticals. Revenue from the Automotive and Internet of Things (IoT) sectors continues to scale, helping insulate Qualcomm from the volatility of handset demand.

Management emphasized confidence during its earnings call, laying out a clear roadmap to double automotive and IoT revenue by 2029. That shift from mobile dependency to multi-market leadership is central to the bullish thesis. As AI becomes a feature across devices, Qualcomm’s edge in on-device processing could prove decisive.

Technically, the stock’s chart still supports this view. Despite the recent ugly dip, shares are holding onto their uptrend and showing signs of stabilizing. For investors who believe in Qualcomm’s long-term prospects but missed the earlier surge, this pullback might have created an entry point. 

Bearish Case: Valuation Heat and Momentum Fatigue

The bearish camp will point to a frothy valuation, ongoing execution risk, and the technical setup from their perspective. Accounting for last month’s pop, Qualcomm now boasts a price-to-earnings ratio of 35, more than double what it was over the summer and very much at the higher end of its historical range. This puts pressure on the company’s earnings growth over the next few quarters to be exceptional in order to justify these levels.

There’s also the fact that, despite being in one of the hottest verticals, Qualcomm has consistently lagged behind its more well-known peers, both in terms of execution and share performance.

Bulls may point to diversification, but critics argue this is the same Qualcomm that’s failed to sustain breakout moves for years, stuck trading at 2021 levels while its peers are at, or close to, all-time highs.

Technically speaking, the stock’s failure to hold above $200 will not have inspired much confidence either, as it suggests there were plenty of investors only too happy to take some profits off the table versus adding to existing positions.

Shares are still holding onto their gains since April, but any sign of the stock starting to slide towards $160 could be too much for even the more bullish investor to bear.

For Now, It’s a Tech Investor’s Market

Still, it’s an investors' market right now, and a tech investor’s market in particular. Interest rates are being cut, the broader benchmark indices are right around their record highs, and the market remains firmly in risk-on mode.

Until that macro setup changes, it’s hard to bet against any tech stock, especially one that’s consistently outperforming expectations and proving investors wrong like Qualcomm.