Nebius’ AI Infrastructure Rally Is Back—And the Numbers Explain Why

Key Points

• Nebius shares have gained more than 20% over the prior week as accelerating demand and raised contracted power guidance boosted investor confidence.
• Management reaffirmed its ambitious $7 to $9 billion ARR target for 2026, highlighting strong pricing power and long-term customer commitments.
• With analysts lifting price targets and the stock reclaiming $100, NBIS is approaching a key resistance level that could trigger a fresh breakout.

Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS has quickly emerged as one of the market’s standout performers in AI infrastructure. Over the past week alone, shares have surged more than 21%, fueled by confident forward guidance and a wave of bullish analyst upgrades alongside BlackRock’s massive bet on Nebius Group.

Just two weeks ago, the stock was testing a major support level and appeared to be losing momentum. Now, following its latest earnings catalyst, Nebius is pressing up against key resistance and flirting with a potential breakout.

With improving fundamentals and strengthening technicals, the company is increasingly positioning itself as a potential leader within the AI infrastructure space.

Shares Climb After Q4 Results

Nebius reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. At first glance, the numbers looked mixed.

Revenue came in at $227.7 million, below estimates of $246 million, though it still marked 547% year-over-year growth and 55% sequential growth. Gross margins held firm at 70%, compared with 71% in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million versus expectations of $40.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin for the core business improved to 24%, up from 19% in Q3. EPS was negative 69 cents, below consensus estimates of negative 42 cents.

The headline revenue miss initially raised eyebrows, but context matters.

Management explained that most of the new capacity came online in late November, so it contributed only meaningfully to December revenue. As a result, quarterly revenue lagged expectations, but forward indicators told a different story.

Active power reached 170MW, well above the previously guided 100MW. Year-end annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion, up 127% quarter over quarter. More importantly, management reiterated its ambitious year-end 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion, signaling continued confidence in demand.

Revenue guidance for 2026 was set at $3 billion to $3.4 billion, which management described as a prudent approach. The company also reiterated its year-end 2026 connected power target of 800MW to 1GW and raised its contracted power guidance from more than 2.5GW to over 3GW.

AI Demand Accelerating, Not Slowing

During the earnings call, management emphasized that demand trends remain robust.

Enterprise and AI native customers continue to outpace available supply, allowing Nebius to sell future capacity well in advance. In fact, the company noted that in Q4 it saw nearly twice as many transactions for contracts longer than 12 months compared with Q3. At the same time, average selling prices increased by more than 50%.

Management also stated that the company has effectively sold out of Hoppers, with renewal contracts extending 12 months or longer at improved pricing. That combination of longer-term commitments and rising prices suggests strengthening pricing power rather than softening demand.

Analysts Turn More Bullish

On Feb. 18, Compass Point initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $150 price target, implying roughly 54% upside at the report date.

A day earlier, BWS Financial reiterated its Buy rating and $130 price target, noting meaningful upside potential.

That adds to an already improving analyst backdrop.

Importantly, both calls emphasize that the Q4 “misses” were viewed as timing-related rather than demand-related, with power and ARR targets doing most of the work in the 2026 thesis. 

If the company continues converting contracted power into connected power on schedule, the upside case becomes easier for analysts to defend.

Nebius now carries 11 analyst ratings, a consensus Moderate Buy, and an average price target of $143.33.

Notably, that target still implies substantial upside despite the stock’s 140% gain over the past year.

Impressive Relative Strength and Breakout Potential

While many software and AI-related names have struggled in recent months, Nebius has bucked the trend. Shares are up roughly 28% year to date and recently reclaimed the $100 level.

If the stock can continue to hold above $100 and build support, the next key level to watch is the $110 resistance zone. A sustained move above that area could trigger a breakout and mark the start of another leg higher within its broader uptrend.