Nebius Is Up Nearly 175% This Year—Here's What's Driving the Latest Run

Key Points

• Nebius Group shares have surged almost 175% year-to-date, supported by $46 billion in committed and contracted revenue from several hyperscalers.
• NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly endorsed Nebius as a world-class AI cloud at Computex, while Situational Awareness LP disclosed a 5.6% stake in the company.
• Q1 2026 revenue grew 684% year over year, and management raised capital expenditure guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion, reflecting rapid infrastructure deployment.

Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS is up almost 175% year-to-date, and the momentum shows no signs of slowing. The AI infrastructure company has gone from strength to strength over the past year.

The stock closed at $227.81 on Thursday, not too far from its recent all-time high of $278.84, and the catalyst stack behind its recent move is as compelling as anything in the neocloud sector right now. From a landmark NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA endorsement to a multi-billion dollar hedge fund stake, the story and sentiment are accelerating on multiple fronts simultaneously.

Jensen Huang Calls Nebius a World-Class AI Cloud

One of the more interesting and significant catalysts in recent weeks came from the most credible voice in the AI infrastructure world. On June 1, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang took the stage at the Computex technology trade show in Taipei, Taiwan, and publicly described Nebius as one of a select group of world-class AI clouds. "Recently we worked with Nebius, and again, they're growing incredibly fast," Huang said, before a slide featuring both companies' logos appeared on screen. He went on to highlight Nebius's impressive roster of customers, including the agentic AI coding platform Cursor, the spatial intelligence leader World Labs, the digital banking provider Revolut, and the e-commerce giant Shopify NASDAQ: SHOP.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Takes a $3.3 Billion Stake

Just days before Huang's Computex comments, regulatory filings revealed that Situational Awareness LP had acquired more than 12.4 million shares of Nebius, a passive stake representing approximately 5.6% of the company. Situational Awareness is led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher whose writing on AI safety and long-term AI trajectories has made him one of the most closely watched voices in the AI investment community. The fund oversees a portfolio with a market value of $13.7 billion as of March 31.

The Fundamentals Justify the Attention

The institutional and celebrity endorsements are arriving against a backdrop of genuine and accelerating fundamental progress. Q1 2026 revenue grew 684% year over year, crushing the consensus estimate. Management reiterated its 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion and raised its contracted power capacity guidance to over 4 gigawatts by year-end. Capital expenditure guidance was raised to $20 billion to $25 billion, reflecting the pace at which demand is being contracted and infrastructure is being deployed.

The contracted backlog continues to anchor the revenue visibility story. The $27 billion multi-year deal with Meta Platforms NASDAQ: META, the $17.4 billion commitment from Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT, and the $2 billion investment from NVIDIA together represent $46 billion in committed and contracted revenue. For a company that was generating $120 million in annualized revenue just 18 months ago, that transformation is genuinely difficult to overstate.

The company has also been moving deliberately up the AI value stack. Three acquisitions have been completed so far this year: Tavily, Eigen AI for $643 million, and Clarifai, targeting inference optimization and agentic search capabilities, deepening the platform's technical moat beyond raw GPU compute.

What Investors Should Watch

The consensus among 15 analysts is Moderate Buy, with a price target of $197. That bear-market level of implied downside based on the target isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though. Instead, it paints the picture of the exceptional momentum and inflows the stock has received in recent months.

For example, over the last 12 months, more than $5 billion in institutional inflows have been recorded, compared with almost $2 billion in outflows. Similarly, online awareness has gone mainstream, whereas just over a year ago, there were very few mentions of the company online. Another example of that is analyst coverage. A year ago, only four analysts covered the stock. Now, 15 analysts are covering the name.

With its next earnings not until August 6, the near-term price action will be driven by sector sentiment, further contract announcements, and any additional institutional filings that surface. The stock carries a beta over 4, meaning it moves with significant amplitude in both directions, and investors considering entry at current levels should be aware of this volatility profile. But for those with a longer-term view, the combination of accelerating institutional ownership, mainstream recognition, deepening analyst coverage, and a contracted backlog approaching $50 billion makes the fundamental case difficult to dismiss. The consensus target may sit well below the current price, but the money that matters most has clearly already made up its mind.