Novartis' Moonshot Cancer Therapy Could Be Future Growth Driver

Key Points

• Novartis is pioneering radioligand therapy, a targeted radioactive cancer treatment with blockbuster potential.
• The company invests heavily in infrastructure to overcome logistical hurdles, but mainstream adoption may take a decade.
• NVS stock is up more than 30% in 2025 and trades above consensus price targets, suggesting near-term downside risk.

GLP-1 drugs are taking much oxygen out of the biotechnology trade. However, many investors have been eyeing other areas in the sector, particularly cancer research. Novartis AG NYSE: NVS is up over 31% in 2025, and a novel cancer treatment could give the Swiss company a long runway for growth.

A Moonshot That Is Radioactive

Oncology remains one of the most important fields in biotech. An emerging subsector is radioactive cancer treatments, which Novartis is pioneering. In the industry, this is known as radioligand therapy.

This is a targeted radiation therapy that sends radioactive isotopes directly to cancer cells via an IV drip. That means it doesn’t damage healthy tissue, which is familiar with traditional cancer treatments. 

The company’s treatments produce results doctors say they’ve “never seen before.” Specifically, in clinical trials, the treatments completely clear metastatic cancer from patients’ scans within six months.

Novartis chief executive officer (CEO) Vas Narasimhan estimates the radioligand market could be valued between $25 billion and $30 billion. In 2021, Narasimhan estimated the market to be $10 billion. Adding to investors’ enthusiasm is that Novartis has a clear first-mover advantage, and it’s used its cash to create high barriers for other competitors to enter the market.

Why Patience Will Be Needed

However, investors need to be patient. This is still a nascent technology that may take between 10 and 15 years before it becomes mainstream.

A key reason for that is infrastructure. Creating cancer-fighting isotopes is one thing; delivering them is a logistical challenge. The isotopes must be injected within three to five days before decay reduces their effectiveness. This requires infrastructure that includes radiation-proof hospital rooms and 24/7 tracking for GPS vials.

To that end, Novartis has made significant investments, including using artificial intelligence (AI) to anticipate everything from air traffic issues to severe weather. But all of that takes time.

The Long-Term vs. the Short-Term for Novartis

Novartis isn’t a speculative biotech company. It has an established pipeline of drugs that treat conditions including cancer, autoimmune diseases, multiple sclerosis, and cardiovascular disease. Novartis also has one of the industry's most competitive pipelines, with drug candidates in various clinical trial stages.  

In its second-quarter earnings report, Novartis reported $14.05 billion in revenue, a 10% increase year-over-year (YOY). Earnings per share (EPS) grew even more, reaching 22% YOY. However, earnings growth is expected to slow to about 4.5% over the next 12 months. Between now and 2027, earnings are projected to increase around 10%. Some of this growth will come from the company’s plan to invest $23 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next five years to counter tariff threats.

NVS Stock May Be Due for a Pullback

NVS stock has enjoyed a strong uptrend throughout 2025, but the technical setup suggests the stock may be due for a pause or pullback. Shares are currently trading at approximately $128, about 3.5% above the consensus analyst price target, which leaves limited near-term upside. Plus, there's a valuation risk with Novartis trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 15% higher than its historical average.

NVS recently tagged the upper Bollinger Band near $131 and has since eased lower, a common sign of short-term exhaustion. The stock remains well above its 50-day simple moving average at $121.24, and the middle Bollinger Band at $125.40 offers the first area of support.

Below that, the $119–$121 zone should serve as stronger downside protection. Momentum indicators are mixed: the MACD remains positive, confirming the broader bullish trend, but the RSI sits near 52, suggesting momentum has cooled and the stock is no longer in overbought territory. This combination often precedes a sideways or slightly downward trading period as markets digest prior gains. With resistance near $131–$135 and stretched valuation relative to consensus targets, risk skews to the downside in the near term, and investors may want to wait for a pullback toward the $121–$125 area before considering new positions.