On Holdings: Correction Is Over, the Sprint to Highs Is On

Key Points

• On Holdings Q2 results affirm a robust outlook that includes sustained double-digit growth and strong margins. 
• Analysts' trends align with the uptrend in the ONON stock price and suggest a 25% movement from critical resistance targets.
• Short sellers pose a threat but may become a tailwind for the price action because of the strength of the results.

On Holdings' NYSE: ONON Q2 results and guidance update catalyze this market, affirming and improving the growth trajectory.

The company is capitalizing on its technology, brand strength, and Nike’s fall from grace to drive and sustain a hyper-growth pace while cementing itself in the investment and consumer landscape.

The takeaway for investors is that the stock price, which was 25% off its highs heading into the report, has ceased the correction and is now in rebound mode, heading to new highs. 

Substantial Upside Forecasted for On Holdings Stock

The rebound in On Holdings' share price could be substantial due to the strength of results, the outlook, and strengthening market support. The trends leading into the report, likely to be sustained after, include bullish institutional and analyst activity with analyst coverage firm, sentiment firming, and rising price targets. 

The critical takeaway is that July and early August activity included several upgrades to Buy or higher equivalents, and the price targets led to the high-end range. That puts ONON stock at $64 within the next 12 months and is likely to be a low-ball target. 

Technically speaking, On Holdings’ stock price is in an uptrend, and the post-release action in August confirmed it. The stock advanced approximately 10% in premarket trading, holding the gains into the open session, rebounding from recent lows and the uptrend line, with volume rising in support of the move. 

The volume increase is noteworthy because it reflects an increase in demand for the stock as its price fell, increasing again as the rebound began, but there is a risk. The market for this stock is struggling with resistance at the moving averages, but will likely overcome it and continue the advance before the end of Q3.

The risk is short interest, which was elevated at nearly 10% in July after rising for three consecutive months. 

On Holdings' Beat and Raise Quarter Underpin Stock Price Advance

On Holdings had an impressive quarter with revenue growing by 32% on strength in all categories. The gains were driven by new products and verticals, with strength centered in the higher-margin direct-to-consumer (DTC) business.

DTC sales increased by 47.2% and 54.3% on an FX-neutral basis, while wholesales grew by a smaller but still strong 23.1%, 28.8% adjusted for FX translation.  

The margin news is more impressive. The company’s operational efficiency and improved revenue leverage drove a significant increase in gross and operating margins.

The net result is an adjusted EBITDA margin and a 220-basis-point improvement, a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA. More importantly, the company raised its guidance to reflect the strength and expects it to continue. 

On Holdings Raises Guidance: No Red Flags on the Balance Sheet

The guidance forecasts full-year growth to run in alignment with the quarter, up about 300 basis points from the prior guidance, and for profitability to remain strong. The trends and reporting history suggest outperformance is likely and that the subsequent guides will also be improved.

Longer term, On Holdings is forecasted to grow revenue-digit CAGR through the end of the decade and at a high double-digit CAGR at an accelerated pace. This setup can sustain the analysts, institutional, and stock price trends.

On Holdings’ balance sheet is a fortress capable of sustaining the long-term strategy of building shareholder value. The highlights at the end of Q2 include decreased cash and increased liabilities offset by increased total assets and steady equity. The company carries no significant long-term debt and is well-capitalized, with total liabilities running at approximately 1.35x the cash position.